Friday night was the first DFS stinker in a while. Jon Gray and the Phillies came through, but Brandon Pfaadt and the 1-0 KCR/LAA game (as of this writing) did not. Not fully covering all non-slate games, we have several write ups below and will get to the rest of the main slate games with DFS notes on Saturday.
All stats are through Thursday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of the page.
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Twins @ Blue Jays
Simeon Woods-Richardson has allowed just five runs (four earned) over 20.2 innings with an impressive 19.3 K-BB% and 104 Pitching+ grade (3.57 Bot ERA). That’s where it ends though, because the 25.3 K% is based on an 8.0 SwStr% (lg avg CStr%) and 90.4 Z-Contact%. A 43.2 Z-O-Swing% is generating hard contact at a 45.6% clip, which makes it tough to trust his estimators when a lot of this is not included, but an 85 Stuff+ grade may more accurately capture it.
Opp wRC+: 90 (20.9 K%, 8.7 HR/FB)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.34
Velocity down 1.2 mph, this hasn’t been the same Kevin Gausman we’ve seen the last few years. About the only positive we can say is that he’s not walking many (5.6%), but the strikeout rate is down to 21.5%, supported by a 10.3 SwStr% and marginal 98 Stuff+ grade. Quality command of his pitches still gives the fastball a 58 PB grade and the splitter a 66 grade with a 3.38 Bot ERA and 106 Pitching+. The biggest problem has been the 11 barrels (10.6%) that’s resulted in a 5.01 xERA that’s his only estimator reaching four. It’s a bit concerning.
Opp wRC+: 104 (108 Road, 112 L7 days)
DEF: 12
B30: 4.35
I don’t buy into SWR having estimators below four, but I’m a bit concerned about Gausman too. When you consider that the Twins have had the better offense and a far better bullpen, I think Gausman is getting a bit too much respect here. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
Update 2:30 EST: Roof closed keeps it a neutral environment (98), but Phil Cuzzi (Swish Analytics) is a pitcher friendly umpire. Springer and Kiermaier out for a second straight day. I assume it's an injury situation. Duran (13) and Jax (26) each threw last night and two of last three, but still gained 1.88% on the Twins overnight.
Diamondbacks @ Orioles
Ryne Nelson has struck out just 16 of 94 batters with an 8.9 SwStr%, but his velocity is up nearly a mph on a 57 grade four-seamer (52.8%, 0.7 RV/100) via pitch modeling that doesn’t see a below average arsenal in his offering, while 103 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+ grades agree. A .348 BABIP is partially responsible for a 5.23 ERA that’s more than half a run above estimators ranging from a 4.13 dERA to a 4.54 xERA. Considering the pitch metrics, this is a pitcher who might be even better than that.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 8
B30: 4.68
John Means struck out eight of 23 batters in his 2024 debut with a 17.6 SwStr% and I’d be more impressed if it weren’t the Reds and he didn’t have a 79 Stuff+ grade for the outing. This is a much tougher opponent against LHP, while Means has projections around four and a quarter.
Opp wRC+: 145 (16.9 K%)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.84
Nelson might be better than his estimators and Means could be better than projections in the same range. However, the Diamondbacks have been a much better offense against LHP than the O’s have been against RHP. The only real edge the Orioles have in this game is in the bullpen, but I’m willing to take that risk for a better full game line.
Update 2:40 EST: Temps near 70 with an 8 mph wind blowing towards the left field pole probably doesn't have much effect. Kjerstand and Mateo in for Mullins and Urias at the bottom does increase strikeouts at least. The top four or five arms for the Orioles threw last night and two of the last three with Kimbrel's 31 pitches over that span the most. A 1.55% gain on the D'backs overnight.
Cubs @ Pirates
Justin Steele has strong pitch modeling metrics over a pair of short starts (105 Stuff+, 110 Pitching+)
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -9
B30: 4.04
I’m only mentioning this game because of the big callup the Pirates are making…
Welcome back to the big leagues Nick Gonzales!!!
Okay, Paul Skenes has projections just a bit below four, which everyone in the world expects him to beat. Beware that he’s only gone beyond 4.1 innings once in the minors this year.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -8
B30: 4.07
Update 2:50 EST: Rain on Skenes parade. Also 60 degrees w/ 10 mph wind right to left. Hayes out for Pirates. Suzuki back, but Swanson still out for Cubs. Paul Clemons has a slight pitcher lean.
Nationals @ Red Sox
The Dodgers and Phillies are the only two offenses to rough up Jake Irvin thus far. The 19 K%, 7.5 SwStr%, 91.1 Z-Contact% and 46.7 Hard% are not pretty and reasons I’m a bit skeptical of contact neutral estimators below four. He doesn’t walk many though (5.1%) and pitch modeling likes what he’s doing (102 Pitching+, 3.22 Bot ERA) with PitchingBot grading all of his offerings above average. Maybe it all evens out.
Like Irvin, Cooper Criswell merits a 102 Pitching+ grade with every pitch he throws more than 20% of the time earning an above average PitchingBot grade. He also has very similar estimators with a 19 K% and 4.9 BB%. The difference is in the contact profile where Criswell has allowed just 34.4% hard contact. Criswell hasn’t faced a single batter for a third time in a start this season yet though.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -3
B30: 3.87
Same offensive and defensive stats. The only difference between the starters is in the contact profile. That does give Criswell a small edge, but he also doesn’t face more than 18 batters, which gives the bullpen half the game. A bullpen that’s been about one-third of a run worse than the Nationals over the last month. I think this line should be closer (+130).
Update 3 EST: Temps in the 50s with 10 mph wind in from right plus small pitcher lean from the umpire (Brennan Miller) could make Fenway play like a negative run environment here. Red Sox w/ six LHBs (.364 wOBA, .358 xwOBA v Irvin since LY) and a 1.11% loss on the Nats.
Braves @ Mets
Max Fried has dominated Miami (twice) and Seattle in Seattle, but struggled in every other outing. However, those outings were at Dodgers, Astros and Phillies plus the Diamondbacks, who pummel LHP. The skills have declined this year (11.5 K-BB%), but the contact profile has been pristine (67.6 GB%, 5.5% Barrels/BBE, 27.5% hard contact rate). Knock out the FIP with four of his six barrels leaving the yard and estimators only range from a 3.20 dERA to a 3.39 SIERA. Nothing to worry about, right? How about the 98 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades with a 3.80 Bot ERA that’s half a run higher than traditional estimators? This is about the most average spot he’ll be in this year and might tell us some more.
Opp wRC+: 102 (17.6 K%)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.45
Christian Scott is the big pitching prospect everyone will have their eyes on at 4 pm on Saturday. He struck out six of 25 Rays with an 18.1 SwStr% in his major league debut, allowing just six baserunners through 6.2 innings. Fangraphs gives all pitches plus his command at least an average future value grade. He struck out 38.3% at AA this season and had a 29.4 K-BB% at AA last season. Projection systems have him just breaking four and that might be a bit conservative.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: 1
B30: 3.17
Can you tell me the Braves certainly have the better pitcher here? The offense hasn’t been much better and the Mets have small to moderate defensive and bullpen edges. Maybe this game should be closer to even in New York?
Update 3:15 EST: Wind blowing across the field 10 mph w/ 60 degree temp. Gain 1.05% on the Mets.
Phillies @ Marlins
This is where I save some time. Sorry to all you Taijuan Walker fans, but there's not even a line on this game yet. Both pitchers have spent some time on the IL this year. Here are the numbers for the rest of both teams though.
Opp wRC+: 84 (80 Home)/118 (115 Road)
DEF: 0/-12
B30: 3.56/4.06
Update 3:20 EST: Schwarber gets a rest. Considering Luzardo doesn't have an estimator below four and the Marlins have the worst defense in baseball, I'm playing Philly's (121/124/157 wRC+ Road/v LHP/L7 days) over again (4.5 +116).
Yankees @ Rays
Nestor Cortes’s 3.72 ERA nearly matches his 3.65 SIERA and 3.86 xFIP, but is more than a run above his 2.63 xERA with a 41.4% hard hit rate, but just 5% Barrels/BBE.
Opp wRC+: 100 (25.5 K%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.6
Zack LIttell has struck out 27 of his last 100 batters without a walk. A 3.13 SIERA and 3.70 dERA are his only estimators above a 3.00 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 125 (8.6 K-BB%, 16.3 HR/FB)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.40
Update 3:30 EST: No Stanton or Torres for the Yankees, who add a LHB (Grisham) to make it six against Littell's reverse split. Line movement towards Rays. Clay Holmes threw 34 pitches last night.
Astros @ Tigers
Cristian Javier had a 113 Stuff+ grade, but 7.3 K-BB% when he hit the IL after his April 14th start. He struck out just three of 16 AA batters in his lone rehab start.
Opp wRC+: 88
DEF: -2
B30: 4.10
A 29.0 K-BB% and 30.4% hard contact rate for Tarik Skubal, who gets a 61 PitchingBot grade on his changeup. The Astros are the third worst offense against changeups this year (-1.4 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 123 (16.7 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.95
Update 4:15 EST: Temp below 60 w/ 16 mph wind out to LF. What type of effect does that combo have in addition to a slightly pitcher friendly umpire (Hamari)? Tucker sits against the tough lefty with Luperfido, another, higher strikeout lefty, taking his place. McKinstry in for Baez adds a LHB. Javier has a wOBA split, but none by xwOBA. Hader & Abreu back to back days.
Guardians @ White Sox
Is Triston McKenzie a thing again? He’s allowed just six runs over his last 21 innings, striking out 25 of 87 batters with a 12.9 SwStr%, but I think not. To start with, he’s also walked nine with as many barrels over that span with just three leaving the park. He’s had three starts at home, in a park that now plays as a negative run environment, according to Statcast, facing just one really capable offense (Houston) on the road. And credit to him for shutting them down, but he’s still throwing a 91 mph fastball right down the pipe, while struggling to throw his curveball and slider for strikes. A 4.88 xERA is his only estimator below five and he still doesn’t have a pitch grade reaching 40 (6.01 Bot ERA), but is now up to a 101 Stuff+ grade. However, a 36 grade curveball (23.1%, -0.8 RV/100) is one of the few pitches the White Sox have hit well (0.61 wCU/C is top third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 78 (77 Home, 85 L7 days) (incl. Fri)
DEF: 3
B30: 2.94
In addition to being down a mph, Mike Clevinger lasted two innings and 16 batters against the Rays in his season debut, walking four without a strikeout. It’s going to be hard to build off a respectable 12.8 K-BB% last year with that start. Major projection systems have him a bit below five and he registered an 88 Stuff+ grade in Tampa.
Opp wRC+: 97 (19.1 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.67
DFS Notes: A pair of protected environments and temps in the 60s without much wind interference otherwise. In fact, I don’t think we consistently get to double digits in any of the five outdoor parks. Still, we have just a pair of offenses reaching five implied runs (Rangers & Dodgers) with just one more exceeding four and a half (Mariners). There are some interesting pitching decisions to be made on this slate. I’ve made four single entry lineups, covering a variety of options on this slate and will illustrate them below.
We start with a game I don’t think I’ve rostered a single player from in any of the four lineups. A power friendly run neutral park will likely play fairly negatively with temps around 60 and a five mph wind blowing left to right. Clevinger is an easy no go, while McKenzie is a more volatile one, who you probably should have some exposure to in multi entries. The Guardians are middle of the board (4.48 run total) with the White Sox closer to the bottom (3.52). I still believe McKenzie has blowup potential too, so some White Sox in multi entry also with Gavin Sheets (91 wRC+, .151 ISO v RHP since last year) likely the best value with LHBs owning a .331 wOBA, but .408 xwOBA against McKenzie since last year. Pham, Lee and DeJong all exceed a 120 wRC+ L30 days if you want to go wrap around. Josh Naylor (133, .200), Jose Ramirez (126, .186) and Will Brennan (95, .115) are the only projected Guardians above a 100 wRC+ L30 days.
Update 4:25 EST: Without calling it heavy usage, all of the White Sox top relievers have thrown two of the last three days. Laureano and Arias add a pair of high strikeout RHBs to the lower half of the order.
Reds @ Giants
Nick Lodolo has hit double digit strikeouts in both of his road starts this season, first in Chicago (AL) and then very impressively in San Diego. He’s sitting on a 25.2 K-BB% over five starts, which helps mitigate small issues with the contact profile (9.1% Barrels/BBE, 42.4% hard contact rate), especially with a park upgrade like today. Estimators only run as high as a 3.34 dERA and xERA. PitchingBot gives every pitch he throws more than five percent of the time a grade between 54 and 58 and one of them (four-seam 49.7%) is an offering the Giants have struggled against (-0.37 wFA/C is bottom third of the league). However, 103 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ grades are more moderate.
Opp wRC+: 98 (20 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.83
Mason Black has a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) with a three pitch mix (fastball/slider/change), all with a potential FV of 50 to 55 each. The same goes for the overall command. However, that’s really more of a five pitch mix (four-seam, sinker, slider, sweeper and change). In the most recent FG scouting report, Black was called a potential multi-inning reliever after a velocity drop from his peak. Black struck out 32.7% in 63 AA innings last year with 27.9% in 60 more at AAA, but with control issues at the latter (12 BB%). He’s struck out 29% with an 8% walk rate over 26.2 innings this year, but has not surpassed 20 batters in an outing yet and only once more than 16 over his last four starts. Projection systems are more still optimistic than the scouting report would suggest, but have dimmed expectations a bit since his first start to something around four and a quarter runs per nine. In that first start, Black threw 84 pitches to 24 Phillies over just 4.1 innings, which probably tells you something about the results (three walks, four strikeouts on a 6.0 SwStr% with a pair of barrels). He did receive an interesting 104 Stuff+ grade for that start, but favored a sweeper (35 thrown) that merited just a 33 PB grade and didn’t have any of his five offerings return a positive run value.
Opp wRC+: 80 (27.6 K%)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.66
DFS Notes: Temps in the 60s with the park designed to minimize wind interference. My first choice is to pay up for Lodolo against one of two decimated lineups on the slate, if it’s affordable. I have him in two of four, including my only FanDuel entry. He’s one of three pitchers on the slate with dominance potential. The Giants (3.5) and Reds (4.0) are both bottom five run totals and Mason Black would be one of my choices in a high upside spot if paying down for SP2, as I am with a couple of DK stacks I’ll get to later. Lodolo has had his issues with RHBs (.377 wOBA, .321 xwOBA since last year), but like I said, this is a lineup that’s half AAA at this point without a few key bats and some of their right-handed platoon players have some pinch-hit risk should they be successful in roughing Lodolo up. For the Reds, everyone projected except for Stephenson exceeds a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year, but only De La Cruz and Benson are above 120 with De La Cruz the only one above a 100 wRC+ also over the L30 days. This is a significant park downgrade, which explains my punt interest in Black with only a four to five inning expectation. However, Mike Ford (115 wRC+, .257 ISO v RHP since LY) hit cleanup last night and is a great cheap first base value there. I’d even play him with Black if need be.
Update 4:35 EST: Vanover leans slightly hitter. Line movement largely towards Reds, despite Patrick Bailey being back. Conforto & Wade also in against the lefty instead of Lee & Slater. If I had enough confidence in Black's projections, the line has gotten to a point where the Giants might be a play (+130 F5).
Cardinals @ Brewers
Kyle Gibson has allowed a total of five earned runs (six total) over his last four starts and he can get right the hell outta here with that because he’s registered just an 11.8 K-BB% over that span and has allowed five barrels over his last two, including a velocity drop off down to 90 mph last time out, according to Fangraphs. A 4.15 dERA is his closest estimator to a 3.68 ERA on the season with a 5.46 xERA running nearly two runs higher. Pitch modeling fails to absolve him with a 91 Stuff+ grade (95 Pitching+) with the sweeper (52) the only one of five pitches he’s thrown more than ten percent of the time with a PB grade above 40. Two of those poorly graded pitches (sinker & cutter) are pitches the Brewers have smashed (0.73 wSI/C, 1.14 wSL/C are both top two marks in baseball).
Opp wRC+: 124 (121 Home)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.40
Bookending a strong home effort against the Rays, where he struck out seven of 18 batters without a walk, Freddy Peralta has walked 11 of 47 Cubs and Pirates on the road with one less strikeout. He had sub-35 Zone% marks in both of those outings, along with the only other one he’s allowed more than two runs in against Seattle earlier in the season and I don’t know what to say. He still has a single digit walk rate on the season (9.7%) and has struck out nearly one-third of batters faced (32.7%), but along with the increase in walks, he’s also allowed 10.6% Barrels/BBE, yet all estimators are still below four (3.90 xERA is the worst). His 111 Stuff+ grade drops to a 101 Pitching+ one and both his fastball and slider (80.9% combined) grade average when considering the shape and location of those pitches, presenting a 4.27 Bot ERA overall. I’m not sure what to say here, but he’s in a pretty sweet rebound spot.
Opp wRC+: 93 (79 Road & L7 days)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.09
DFS Notes: A negative run environment with the roof closed (94), as it’s been for just about every home game so far, and just about neutral on average if open (98), I’m not afraid of paying up for Peralta here, more so on FD for just $100 more, but haven’t done so. If you can figure out ownership on this slate, do the opposite with him. I don’t have him in any of my lineups, despite St Louis being the low team on the board (3.17). There is some merit to having at least one St Louis stack in multi, considering Peralta’s recent command issues though. Almost the entire lineup is above a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year, but below that over the last 30 days overall. I’d rather stack attack Gibson than roster him, but I could see where you might need him in an SP2 spot if not comfortable with Black or Coors pitchers on DK for just $7.3K. I haven’t done it though. The Brewers are right in the middle (4.33) with LHBs owning a .342 wOBA/.352 xwOBA against Gibson since last year. Yelich (140 wRC+, .204 ISO v RHP since LY) may be one of my favorite batters that I don’t have rostered in any of my four lineups. Jake Bauers had a .225 ISO against RHP since last year and a 143 30 day wRC+ mark. He’s another cheap offering at first base, though a bit more expensive than Ford.
Update 5:05 EST: Roof closed w/ Jim Wolf leaning pitcher makes this a negative run environment. No Yelich and Chourio out again, but Bauers hits cleanup, increasing his value. Matt Carpenter makes an appearance, in for Siani.
Rangers @ Rockies
Two straight strong starts for Andrew Heaney, although he faced Washington and Oakland, but who is he facing here? Heaney has struck out just 20.5%, but with a 6.0 BB% and 8.9 HR/FB on 8.3% Barrels/BBE, which are all better than recent seasons. In fact, a 3.86 xERA is the best of his estimators that range as high as a 4.63 xFIP. The 82 Stuff+ grade is weaker than we’d expect, but he’s been locating well enough (fastballs up, secondaries down) to earn a 100 Pitching+ score and 3.54 Bot ERA with only the changeup (49) earning a grade below 50 (PB).
Opp wRC+: 78 (77 Home, 78 L7 days)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.18
Since striking out 26 of his first 95 batters, Ryan Feltner has struck out just 10 of his last 75 (though he did have a 14.1 SwStr% in Pittsburgh last time out). It’s been an inconsistent start with two starts responsible for half of his 36 strikeouts without more than four in any of his other five starts. He’s been above a 12.5 SwStr% four times, but no higher than 7.5% in the other three. Still, the overall package (15,3 K-BB%, 5.7% Barrels/BBE, 32.8 Hard%) generates estimators ranging from a 3.39 xERA to a 3.91 FIP all well below a 5.54 ERA (.359 BABIP, 63.5 LOB%). He also has perfectly average 101 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades with a 3.99 Bot ERA. All three pitches he throws more than 10% of the time grade between 50 and 56 (PB). Maybe he’s very average in a very volatile way from start to start.
Opp wRC+: 114 (19.7 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.76
DFS Notes: The Rangers are the top team on the board (5.50) with the Rockies also top half at exactly a run less and both pitchers two of the least expensive arms on the board. With Feltner being volatile, but competent, I don’t have a full Ranger stack in any of my four lineups, but do have Seager (165 wRC+, .278 ISO v RHP since LY) in three of four lineups. I like Evan Carter (167, .307) and Marcus Semien (124, .211) a lot too, but might consider going slightly underweight in multi because there is a non-zero chance Feltner is competent here. LHBs have a .349 wOBA/.329 xwOBA against him since last year with RHBs at .334, but .299. I’ve gone with Heaney in the one spot I needed a pair of cheap pitchers with a high priced stack. This a volatile, but potentially worthwhile risk. The small sample of Sean Brouchard (.289 wRC+, .500 v LHP since LY) is the only batter projected to hit a 100 wRC+ against southpaws since last year. I also have him rostered in all four of my lineups as potentially one of the top OF and overall values on the board for less than $3.5K.
Update 5:35 EST: No Carter for Texas.
Dodgers @ Padres
Through six starts, James Paxton a -4.4 K-BB%, though because just three of his nine barrels (9.3%) have left the yard, he has a 5.48 FIP that’s his only estimator below six. The 85.2 LOB% is ridiculous, as his velocity continues to drop (93.5 mph is down 1.7 mph from last year) and pitch modeling vomits out a 74 Stuff+ and 5.22 Bot ERA. He walked eight Padres the last time he faced them, allowing just three runs.
Opp wRC+: 91 (9.8 K-BB%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.71
Pitch modeling doesn’t handle knuckleballs, but disagrees with the rest of Matt Waldron’s arsenal (86 Stuff+, but 3.66 Bot ERA). By estimators ranging from a 4.52 FIP to a 5.01 dERA, he’s been better than a 5.82 ERA, but not good. A 10.3 K-BB% is below average, but not terrible, while he’s managed contact well (34.5 Hard%), despite a 46.6 Z-O-Swing%.
Opp wRC+: 138 (127 Road, 152 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.58
I’m going to die on this hill against Paxton and am attacking him every way possible. If the Padres F5 +120 doesn’t work, maybe Padres over 3.5 (-120) will.
DFS Notes: Unless DK or FD are suddenly adding points for walks, I’m not rostering either pitcher in this game and I can’t really get to bats where I’m paying up for pitching, but I do have both a San Diego and LAD stack lineup on DK. I needed to pay down for both pitchers (Black & Heaney) to roster the top half of the Dodger lineup minus Will Smith. It’s the three lefties plus Betts with LHBs owning a .378 wOBA, .365 xwOBA against Waldron since last year. If I were playing multi, the Padres would be my favorite stack wherever not paying up for pitching and I’ve managed to go Ragans and Black in my DK SD stack. Every right-handed projected Padre (Tatis, Profar, Machado, Bogaerts, Campunsano, Kim) are all above a 110 wRC+ and .160 ISO against LHP since last year, Arraez is at 101 wRC+. Bogaerts and Kim are my two omissions of the seven, but that could change with any unexpected lineup issues or reconfiguring. Batters from either side are between a .314 and .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Paxton since last year.
Update 5:45 EST: No Campusano. Padres go with just 1 LHB. Lose 1.16% on Padres. People must be nuts betting Paxton. Price on Padres total rises from -120 though. Suarez has thrown every other day (3 of L5).
Royals @ Angels
Cole Ragans has bounced back to allow four runs over his last 17.2 innings since being trounced by the Orioles, but has also walked eight of his last 69 batters to go with 21 strikeouts. He’s really struggled to locate the slider and perhaps it’s a pitch he should give up on at just 10% usage with a -6.4 RV/100 and 29.3 Whiff% when the changeup and curveball are getting whiffs on about half of swings. Even with a few extra walks, he still owns a 21.5 K-BB%, while allowing just 5.4% Barrels/BBE with all non-FIP estimators matching his 3.38 ERA within one-third of a run, a 3.39 xERA nearly exactly so. Posting a 111 Stuff+ grade, Ragans is in a spot to dominate against a decimated lineup that Ron Washington doesn’t even want to post anymore.
Opp wRC+: 102 (75 L7 days)
DEF: 8
B30: 4.43
So much for Tyler Anderson catching up to his SwStr%. He posted his second worst mark of the season (9.7%) last time out behind the lowest four-seam velocity Statcast has ever recorded for one of his starts (88.4 mph), down nearly a full mph from his season average and two from last season. He’s down to just an 8.1 K-BB% on the season, allowing 10.6% Barrels/BBE, but just a one-third hard contact rate with one-third of his hard contact being barrels. Single game blip in Pittsburgh or something more ominous? I’m not paying for the privilege of finding out.
Opp wRC+: 90 (85 Road)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.92
DFS Notes: This game bombed my lineups last night and I’m surprised the Angels are as high as 3.56 implied runs here. It a power friendly, run neutral environment with temps in the 60s, but a near double digit wind out to left center. Cole Ragans is probably a favorite of everyone tonight against this decimated lineup and I’ve fit him in two lineups, including one with Lodolo on DraftKings where I’m paying down for almost every bat (besides Seager). The Royals have a solid 4.44 team total and I’ll admit I don’t know what to do with Anderson here. I’m not rostering him, but Witt (119 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Dairon Blanco (171, .306) are the only pair of projected Royals above a 100 wRC+ and .180 ISO against LHP since last year. In fact, Maikel Garcia (114, .176) and Nelson Velazquez (73, .185) are the only other two to reach a .150 ISO at all.
Update 6 EST: Significant line move toward KC. No KC lineup yet. Estevez and Moore two of last three days, both close to 40 pitches total.
Athletics @ Mariners
According to Fangraphs, Joey Estes is a 40 Future Value prospect with a plus fastball and potentially strong command amid marginal other offerings…fifth starter stuff. He has a 13 K-BB% over 61 innings at AAA last year and this season combined. Projection systems have him about a quarter of a run below five.
Opp wRC+: 95 (29.5 K%)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.15
Bryce Miller is coming off of maybe his worst start of the season. His home runs have come in batches, two each in three separate starts, only one of those at home his first time out. His new splitter (18.2%, 67 PB grade) has helped improve his fastball (44.4%, 59 grade) with both pitches holding a 1.9 RV/100, leading to an 18.4 K-BB% that’s backed by a 110 Stuff+ grade. There’s still the problem of those 14 barrels (13.6%), which could be an issue even in Seattle. With a 44.6 Z-O-Swing%, he may need to go outside the zone more often or at least not so much over the plate, but who’s going to complain without a non-FIP estimator above four. Just don’t expect the .188 BABIP and 88.7 LOB% to be sustained.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.30
Estes projects a run worse than Miller, but the A’s have been competitive and comparable in every other area (offense, defense, bullpen). This line is too large (+188).
DFS Notes: Considering conditions on the rest of the slate, Seattle doesn’t seem so extreme a negative run environment here and I’m on a lot of cheap bats here where I’m paying up for pitching. If not, I think Miller might be slightly over-priced, but fine against an over-achieving offense, but certainly not my first choice. In a pair of starts last year (10 IP), batters from both sides smashed Estes above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA. Josh Rojas (109 wRC+, .125 ISO v RHP since LY, 188 wRC+ L30 days), Cal Raleigh (115, .223, 134) and Luke Raley (124, .226, 123) are the guys I have in multiple lineups, but like Jorge Polanco (104, .189, 95). All are below $4K on DK and $3K or less on FD. The splitter has helped mitigate Miller’s split issues (LHBs .247 wOBA this year), but they still have a .352 wOBA/.380 xwOBA since last year and we have to regress the smaller sample at least a little bit. Abraham Toro (121, .160, 132) and J.J. Bleday (112, .169, 118) have found their way into a few of my lineups.
Update 6:10 EST: Ortiz leans slightly pitcher friendly. Langiliers and Brown out for A's might actually reduce Ks for Miller.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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