To the untrained eye, it may look like I've only worked through five games below, but in reality, I've made a run through them all and have a good idea what needs to be said, but can probably form those words better in the morning. Rather than rush just for the sake of being done with it quicker, enjoy the five game breakdowns below and rest assured that with no day games taking early precedence, the other 10 plus DFS notes will be posted by a reasonable time early in the afternoon on Friday.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Astros @ Tigers
Through four starts, Framber Valdez’s 3.97 ERA is a near perfect match for his 3.95 FIP. After allowing his first two home runs and three barrels (4.7%) to the Mariners last time out, he now has a 22.2 HR/FB because when you do the math, he’s only allowed NINE fly balls. Man, he must be back to a ground ball rate in the upper 60s. Nope, 58.7%. It’s the line drive rate that’s up to 27% and hard contact rate up to 43.8%, resulting in the 4.48 xERA. Remember, this is just four starts and everything could be drastically different by Saturday, so perhaps individual pitch metrics will tell us more. PitchingBot still loves the curveball (21.3%, 62 grade), but not the sinker (46.5%, 49), resulting in a 4.00 Bot ERA to go with a 116 Stuff+ grade, but 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -2
B30: 4.12
Casey Mize tied a season high, striking out six of 26 Yankees last time out, but also allowed a season high five runs. Pitch modeling is a big fan of his work in 2024, starting with a 63 grade fastball (45.4%) that heads a 3.18 Bot ERA with a 105 Pitching+ grade supported by a 114 Stuff+ arsenal. With just two of his eight barrels leaving the yard, Mize’s non-FIP estimators are all within one-fifth of a run of his 3.98 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 105 (16.9 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.00
This all looks very close with neither side having a large advantage in any aspect, especially when we add in Houston’s 90 wRC+ on the road. At home, that should make Detroit a small favorite, but line makers don’t want to give up on the Astros. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
Update 3:30 EST: Weather, umpire lean pitcher. No Houston LU yet. 1.72% gain on DET F5.
Cubs @ Pirates
Javier Assad was a late confirmation on Thursday night. His 1.66 ERA is the product of a .238 BABIP, 88.7 LOB% and just two home runs (4.5%) on nine barrels. With the wind blowing in at Wrigley throughout April, he’s only pitched in the most pitcher friendly environments so far. That said, his 3.22 xERA matches his 3.24 FIP with contact neutral estimators about a run higher. Pitch modeling is much more pessimistic with just a 90 Stuff+ grade and PitchingBot grading every offering below average.
Opp wRC+: 74 (73 Home, 52 L7 days) (incl. Thurs.)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.04
Jared Jones may not just be the early Rookie of the Year favorite, but a dominant 31.6 K-BB% probably puts him ahead in the Cy Young race too, if his innings aren’t limited too harshly. With seven of 10 barrels leaving the park, a 3.29 FIP is his only estimator more than a half run removed from a 2.63 ERA, while pitch modeling adores him (136 Stuff+, 114 Pitching+, 2.38 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -9
B30: 4.07
Update 3:50 EST: We don't have either lineup yet, but it's below 60 degrees. With Assad not having reached a 5 SwStr% in four straight and Jones only below 15.3% or seven strikeouts once, I've played the under on Assad's K prop (4.5 -115) and the over on Jones (7.5 +145), along with the team under on the Cubs (3.5 -128). In addition to a 94 wRC+ against RHP, the Cubs have just an 82 Road wRC+.
Yankees @ Rays
Clarke Schmidt has yet to complete six innings, but its’ been good work while he’s been in there. An 18.6 K-BB% supports contact neutral estimators within a quarter run of his 3.50 ERA with a FIP and xERA above four (8.7% Barrels/BBE, 39.1 Hard%). Pitch modeling has always liked his profile. Pitching Bot (3.71 ERA) grades just one below average pitch (42 sinker), along with a 112 Stuff+ grade. Potentially helpful here, the Rays won’t be able to exploit Schmidt’s large 50+ point split since last year.
Opp wRC+: 100 (incl. Thurs)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.60
Taj Bradley makes his season debut. Striking out 15 of 38 AAA batters with just three walks was enough rehabbing for him. Bradley had a 19.6 K-BB% over 104.2 innings last year and shouldn’t have any significant workload issues tonight.
Opp wRC+: 125 (8.6 K-BB%, 16.3 HR/FB)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.40
Diamondbacks @ Orioles
A pathetic 61.4% strand rate is responsible for Brandon Pfaadt having a 4.61 ERA that sits more than a run and a quarter above of every estimator except for a 3.76 dERA. He’s walked five Cardinals and just one non-Cardinal this year, producing a 20.7 K-BB% with just 5.7% Barrels/BBE and a 15.2 IFFB%. All three pitches Pfaadt throws grade above average (PB), led by a 64 four-seamer and 66 sweeper, both pitches the Orioles have been below average against. He’s the proud owners of a 2.55 Bot ERA and 106 Pitching+ grade (102 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 8
B30: 4.71
Just two of Cole Irvin’s nine barrels have left the yard, mostly thanks to a cavernous left field in Baltimore and facing some poor offenses. He hasn’t allowed a single run over his last three starts (Royals, A’s, Reds), despite striking out just 11 of 71 batters, but we have to give him credit for great contact management over this span, sustainable or not (60.7 GB%, 31.6 Hard%. My vote is not. While estimators hover around a run above his 2.86 ERA, pitch modeling projects an 84 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 145 (16.9 K%)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.73
The wrong team is favored here. Even if you consider Irvin’s estimators sustainable, Pfaadt is still better by half a run, while both teams are batting in their inferior splits tonight (BAL against RHP & ARI against LHP). I’ll take the only slightly lower price (+120) to avoid the bullpen.
DFS Notes: The good news is we have several dome games with no danger of any rain outs, but even on a 12 game slate, we can’t find a park where it’s expected to reach 70 degrees and the forecast is so dreadful in the northeast that I’m not even sure it can be called pitcher friendly if they can’t feel their fingers to grip the ball, but you can be fairly certain the ball won’t be carrying. The extreme result is that the Brewers have the third highest run total on the board at 4.36. The top two do reach five implied runs, but it takes Patrick Corbin and Coors to get them there and in the first case just barely.
My initial inclination is then to pay down for pitching in order to gain access to some expensive bats who might make it work.
Baltimore has temperatures below 60 with a near double digit wind blowing in from center and that’s enough for me to get to roster a cheap Brandon Pfaadt against an offense that has destroyed LHP, but hasn’t been all that much against RHP. A 4.16 team total is still barely top third of the board for the Orioles. Gunner Henderson and Ryan O’Hearn are the only O’s exceeding a 110 wRC+ against RHP since last year and both exceed a .195 ISO as well. However, Urias and Mullins are the only pair of projected Orioles below a 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. There’s certainly risk here. LHBs have a .378 wOBA against Pfaadt in his career, but Statcast drops that to a .337 xwOBA with the weather making it worth the risk. It’s not enough for me to consider Cole Irvin against an offense that may not line up with a single batter below a 100 wRC+ against LHP since last year, though with just a 3.84 implied run total and most of their barrels likely to be caught in this park, I’m not on Arizona bats either. Ginkel and Thompson back to back days and Sewald two of three since returning not only makes ARI F5 make more sense than full game, but also may push Pfaadt a bit further.
Update 4:10 EST: Arizona is now the F5 favorite (8.35% gain).
Twins @ Blue Jays
The 24.7 K-BB% is similar to last year (24.3%), as are the barrels (8.3% from 8.7%), but the increased velocity has helped him decrease his hard hit rate (32.1%) and generate a career high 37.4 GB%. A 65.7 LOB% is responsible for estimators ranging from a 2.45 xERA to a 3.23 dERA all below his 3.54 ERA. While the “stuff” doesn’t grade out well in a vacuum (93 Stuff+), Ryan uses it well (106 Pitching+) and gets overall 65+ PB grades on his fastball and sweeper (55 splitter).
Opp wRC+: 90 (20.9 K%) (incl. Thurs)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.34
Yusei Kikuchi is posting a career high 21 K-BB% and while 45.5% of his contact is still reaching a 95 mph EV, he’s only allowed a lower barrel rate (6.4%) in the shortened 2020 season. Quality starts in four of his last five outings with a 109 Stuff+ grade (106 Pitching+), a 3.24 dERA is his only estimator more than half a run above a 2.72 ERA. Pitching Bot gives his fastball (45.6%) and curveball (29.6%) 65+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 126
DEF: 12
B30: 4.35
DFS Notes: Roof closed, this is a higher run scoring environment (98) than with it open (104) over the last three years, though there were some changes to the park last year that aren’t fully accounted for yet. The protected, potentially neutral environment makes two high priced quality pitchers a bit less interesting on this slate, though both can certainly still make it work. Both teams have just 3.75 team run totals, but the Blue Jays don’t strike out enough against RHP to make this work for me, while the Twins have smashed LHP. Danny Jansen (130 wRC+, .249 ISO v RHP since LY) has been on fire (199 wRC+ L30 days) against a reverse platoon pitcher (.335 wOBA, .299 xwOBA), who may be further hurt by a predominantly right-handed lineup, while we can say the same for Ryan Jeffers against LHP on the other side (160, .276, 214 L30). It’s either catcher or nothing for me here. RHBs .324/.319 against Kikuchi since last season.
Update 4:25 EST: Davis Schneider (144, .192) moves up to leadoff with Springer out against Ryan's reverse split (RHBs .325, .299 since LY).
Nationals @ Red Sox
Pertinent info for Patrick Corbin are a 14.4 K% (92.6 Z-Contact%), 47% hard contact rate, a matching 4.41 xFIP and FIP, but also a 6.08 xERA and just a single pitch (61 cutter) graded average or better (PB). Corbin has just an 82 Stuff+ grade overall and batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 99 (30.1 K%, but 11.2 BB%) (incl. Thurs)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.52
Tanner Houck has failed to produce a quality start in just one outing. Improved command, along with and increased splitter usage have combined to drop his wOBA against LHBs over 100 points since last year (.248 - .366). While just one of his barrels has left the park, he’s only allowed six (4.8%) with seven walks (all in three starts), producing a 21.5 K-BB%. The sinker (58), splitter (55) and slider (69) all grade strongly (PB) with both pitch models in agreement on his arsenal (109 Stuff+ & Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.87
DFS Notes: Fifty degrees with a double digit wind in from right center still gets the Red Sox to 5.05 implied runs against Patrick Corbin. I’m more likely to play Boston bats on FanDuel with all less than $3.5K, but can’t find my way to any on DK in single entry. Certainly have significant multi entry exposure to at least Tyler O’Neill (150 wRC+, .245 ISO v LHP since LY), though he costs $6.1K on DK, where Rob Refsnyder (135, .091) might be the best value despite the lack of power. He has a projected lineup leading 201 wRC+ L30 days. That just three in the Washington standard lineup against RHP recently exceed a 20 K% against RHP since last year downgrades my interest in Houck as much as the weather upgrades it a park that will still probably play almost near neutral. He’s still fairly viable on DraftKings at his cheaper price. I’m certainly not on any Washington bats. Abrams is too expensive and Houck doesn’t struggle against LHBs anymore.
Update 4:40 EST: With a 2 pt wRC+ edge v L/RHP, similar defense and actual better pen estimators L30 days, we've reached the uncomfortable point where the Nats have some value at +180.
Braves @ Mets
Charlie Morton has thrown three straight quality starts (19 IP – 73 – 4 ER – 1 HR – 5 BB – 15 K) with a mere 20.5 K% over that span. The velocity is down a mph with the patented curveball (43.2%) dropping from a 42% whiff rate to 28.4%. PitchingBot still gives the pitch a 57 grade, but the four-seam (33.3%) just a 39 on the scale with a 91 Stuff+ mark overall. All estimators are above, but within half a run of his 3.50 ERA. The tank isn’t empty yet, but it’s nearing the red line.
Opp wRC+: 105 (20.1 K%)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.47
The 5.5 K-BB% is not only a career worst for Jose Quintana, but he hasn’t been in single digits since his rookie season in 2012. In order to be effective, he needs to locate his fastball better than he has this season, in order to get weak contact on secondaries out of the zone. He remarkably held this Atlanta offense to just three runs in their first meeting, but more pitchers have been doing that to the Braves than expected this year. Quintana has just an 83 Stuff+ grade with only his curveball (20.9%) grading near average (51 PB). His 5.20 ERA is above all estimators aside from a 5.93 xERA with just 6.6% Barrels/BBE, but 42.6% hard contact.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: 1
B30: 3.09
The biggest Atlanta edge here is starting pitching, even with Morton in decline. Quintana has been quite a bit worse. However, the offenses have been comparable with the Braves’ recent slumping. The home team appears to have defensive and bullpen advantages too, which should make them smaller dogs than they currently are (+132).
DFS Notes: Thought this might be a higher scoring game than expected, despite an extremely negative run environment, but 50 degrees and a double digit wind in from right center keeps the Braves to a 4.05 run total with the Mets 0.6 runs lower. Morton…meh, Quintana no, expensive Braves bats, likely all above a 100 wRC+ with only Harris below a .200 ISO against LHP since last year still likely too expensive in this environment and not even Nimmo (141 wRC+, .223 ISO v RHP since LY) is clicking for me under these conditions. Just yuck.
Update 4:45 EST: 1.54% gain on Mets.
Phillies @ Marlins
Ranger Suarez is averaging nearly seven innings per outing with six straight quality starts. He must be generating early contact with a reduced strikeout rate. Nope. Despite velocity down nearly two full mph on his sinker, it’s generating an increased 11.3 Whiff%, as he’s struck out a career high 26.9%. It’s not that he’s missing bats in the zone (92.1 Z-Contact%), but getting so many swings outside of it (28.2 Z-O-Swing%), which makes sense when you also consider the lowest walk rate of his career (3.5%), while also dominating at the point of contact (57.8 GB%, 82.7 mph EV, 5.1% Barrels/BBE, 27.4 Hard%). Pitch modeling recognizes the reduced velocity (85 Stuff+), but improved command (104 Stuff+, 3.38 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 65 (19.6 K%, 6.0 BB% & HR/FB) (incl. Thurs)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.56
Trevor Rogers is throwing tons of fastballs right down the pipe at 1.2 mph less than last year. Every one of his pitches is suffering a wOBA > .350 with only the changeup (28.2%) below a .345 xwOBA. And there’s your 46.6% hard contact rate. While 51.3% of it is on the ground, it’s not enough with just an 8.2 K-BB%, resulting in a 5.01 xERA. The good news is that contact neutral estimators are all a bit below four and a half, so if he can find better command, there is some hope.
Opp wRC+: 118 (115 Road, 129 L7 days)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.06
DFS Notes: Here we go! A protected environment, Miami has a 102 run factor with the roof closed last three years. While that’s not great news for Suarez for more than $10K, it is for a Philly offense that I believe to be under-valued at 4.33 implied runs. Swipe away Marlins bats unless you’re interested in punting with Dane Myers if he bats leadoff, which is fine, but I’m rostering as much Realmuto (127 wRC+, .257 ISO v LHP since last year) and Bohm (158, .283) as I can against Rogers (RHBs .350 wOBA & xwOBA against since LY). Cristian Pache (135, .194) may be the better min-priced choice, even at the bottom of the lineup. Philly stacks all around. Rojas and Merrifield are the only pair projected at less than a 115 wRC+ and .190 ISO against LHP since last season.
Update 5 EST: Considering the above, playing over PHI run total (4.5 -102).
Guardians @ White Sox
The most surprising aspect of Carlos Carrasco’s profile is the nearly league average Stuff+ (96) and Pitching+ (97) grades. The lesser surprise is the 5.05 Bot ERA and a PB grade below 45 for three of the four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time, excepting the changeup (51). Carrasco has allowed two runs or less in four of his seven starts, but that’s probably because they try to get him out of there at the first sign of middle inning danger. With just a 6.0 K-BB%, 90.8 Z-Contact%, 45.7 Z-O-Swing%, 43.7% hard hit rate and velocity two mph lower than last season, all of Carrasco’s estimators are below his 5.67 ERA, but only by three-quarters of a run or less. Batters from either side of the plate remain above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 75 (74 Home, 60 L7 days)
DEF: 1
B30: 2.81
Garrett Crochet has a similar 5.31 ERA to Carrasco, but just about everything in his profile points to it being extremely fluky, starting with his 110 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ grades. He also throws a 64 grade fastball (52.7%) and 67 grade cutter (20%). Guess which pitches the Guardians have had the most trouble with? They’re bottom third of the league against both fastballs (-0.42 wFA/C) and cutters (-0.83 wFC/C). Eight home runs on just six barrels against Crochet. With that and a 26.8 K-BB%, all non-FIP estimators are more than two runs better than actual results.
Opp wRC+: 119 (22.6 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.48
I highlighted Cleveland’s strikeout rate against LHP to illustrate that they whiff a lot more against southpaws than their counterparts. Something that should play well with the part of Crochet’s arsenal that they should struggle with. As such, I’m siding with Chicago F5 (-115).
DFS Notes: While I like Crochet to shut down the Cleveland offense, he’s still a bit expensive against them at more than $8K, at least on this slate. The weather here isn’t as pitcher friendly as other spots, but still in the 60s. Carrasco is one of the few pitchers I wouldn’t consider against the White Sox. There’s no reason for it. Both teams at 3.75 implied runs, I don’t hate a cheapy like David Fry (168 wRC+, .206 ISO v LHP since last year). Sheets and Pham both exceed a 120 wRC+ L30 days and should be at the top of the Chicago lineup. Kopech and Brebbia are both coming off two straight.
Update 5:10 EST: White Sox now large F5 favorites (-164, 8.63% gain!!). Fry batting 2nd.
Cardinals @ Brewers
Lance Lynn has only allowed five home runs this year, three of them in one start in Miami, so problem solved, no? Not at all because his 10.8 K-BB% is at it’s lowest rate since his first stint in St Louis and his 11.1% Barrels/BBE is the worst rate of his career. His 3.28 ERA is nearly a run below his best estimator (4.21 xERA). With a 44.2 Z-O-Swing% and 82 Stuff+ grade, Lynn’s best graded pitches are his cutter (30.2%) and fastball (35.8%) both at 47 via PitchingBot. LHBs have torched him for a .377 wOBA and .349 xwOBA since last year.
Opp wRC+: 123 (117 Home) (incl. Thurs)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.33
You would think a guy named Robert Gasser would bring it at more than 94 mph, but the 45 Future Value grade 25 year-old has a 60 FV grade on his slider, cutter and command (Fangraphs) and has increased his strikeout rate at AAA in each stint (26.1%, 28%, 33%), though that last number is just over 12 innings. The low arm slot is expected to make the stuff play up, but it’s also a concern that he’ll be an extreme fly ball pitcher that could struggle against RHBs. He’s thrown exactly four innings in each of his three starts this year and hasn’t gone a batter past twice through the lineup, so workload is a concern here. Projection systems have him a bit below four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 67 (18.4 K%)
DEF: 7
B30: 4.05
DFS Notes: A negative run environment with the roof closed (94), more neutral with it open (98 and unlikely), both teams are above four implied runs with the Brewers third best at 4.36. Christian Yelich (141 wRC+, .205 ISO v RHP since last year) is my favored batter here. LHBs are at a .377 wOBA/.349 xwOBA against Lynn since last season. With RHBs at .309/.322, stack them up on FanDuel. A bit more expensive on DraftKings, but still viable. I’m not sold on Gasser’s ability to shut down RHBs, but not a single projected Cardinal exceeds a .150 ISO against LHP since last year. The workload is still a killer to me, though he’s not even available on FD, just $5K on DK.
Update 5:20 EST: No Chourio again. Roof closed. Lynn's estimators are the same as Gasser's projections. The Brewers have a 56 pt wRC+ edge v L/RHP and the far better defense. The price on MIL (-120 F5) is too low.
Rangers @ Rockies
Slider silly Jon Gray (44.9%, 34.2 Whiff%) takes his act to Coors. The good news is he’ll face a predominantly right-handed lineup (.291 wOBA, .300 xwOBA since last year). The bad news is that the slider might not break as much at Coors and then what’s he gonna do? Will revenge be enough to see him through? A 2.53 FIP is a near match for his 2.50 ERA with additional estimators ranging from a 3.45 SIERA to a 3.85 xERA (8.9% Barrels/BBE), but I question the 25.5 K% being sustainable. It’s not the 12.8 SwStr%, but the 81 Stuff+ grade and a 42 grade fastball (.370 xwOBA) with reduced velocity by more than a full mph being his only other real altenative to an over-performing slider (47 PB grade). He’s basically a one pitch guy and it can’t continue to dominate in a starting role.
Opp wRC+: 77 (27.6 K%, 7.9 HR/FB) (incl. Thurs)
DEF: 9
B30: 4.19
Austin Gomber (15.7 K%, 9.9% Barrels/BBE, 76 Stuff+) will be serving the Rangers tonight. Estimators only run as low as a 4.39 xERA (33.9 Hard% with the barrels accounting for 29% of the hard contact). Batters from either side are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 87
DEF: -2
B30: 3.87
DFS Notes: Low 50s with a light wind out to left. Marcus Semien (128 wRC+, .169 ISO v LHP since LY) is my top second baseman, but I’m having trouble fitting him right now or really any Rangers. It’s still a great spot (best on the board by nearly half a run) if you can. Robbie Grossman (157, .211) could be the value play here. Only Lowe, Wendzel and Taveras are below a 110 wRC+ against LHP among those projected. This is going to sound hypocritical considering the above, but Jon Gray is my favored pitcher on either site. I don’t think he can continue dominating with one pitch, but he can here, especially with conditions dampening the environment. Blackmon and Diaz (23%) are the only pair in the projected Colorado lineup below a 26 K% against RHP since last year and Gray is cheap. Blackmon and McMahon are the only projected LHBs, the latter the only above average batter against RHP via wRC+ since last season. The Rockies have just a four run team total.
Royals @ Angels
Alec Marsh hasn’t allowed a run over his last 10 innings, despite striking out just one of 17 Blue Jay sin his last start on April 24th. He struck out six of 14 in a rehab start five days ago, but has just a 15.9 K% with a 93 Z-Contact% and 43.8 Z-O-Swing%. Maybe his chuck it down the middle and pray approach will work against this decimated Angels’ lineup, but non-FIP estimators range from a 4.42 xFIP to a 4.95 dERA with pitch grades ranging from 43 (curveball 20.2%) to 51 (changeup 12.8%). Batters from either side are between a .350 and .367 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 94 (incl. Thur)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.49
Griffin Canning has struck out just 16.8% of batters with 9.7% Barrels/BBE. While a 4.83 SIERA is his only estimator below five, all are still well more than a run below his 6.83 ERA (58.3 LOB%), but his velocity is down a mile and a half per hour with a fastball that’s getting torched (33.9%, -3 RV/100, .438 wOBA, .453 xwOBA, 27 PB grade) leading an 86 Stuff+ grade overall.
Opp wRC+: 99 (17.9 K%)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.78
DFS Notes: With temperatures in the 60s and a near double digit wind out to left center, this is one of the more hitter friendly spots on the board and it’s my favorite spot on the whole, outside of Philly bats. Both teams are at 4.25 implied runs, despite all the LAA injuries. Considering the numbers cited above, I love cheap, top half of the order Angels here, mostly Schanuel (97 wRC+, .079 ISO v RHP since LY), Moniak (114, .217) and Calhoun (109, .176). I’m also jamming Bobby Witt (125, .222) into lineups and like the majority of the Kansas City lineup in stacks.
Update 6:50 EST: Neither team has posted a lineup.
Dodgers @ Padres
Tyler Glasnow has struck out at least nine in four of his last five starts, though just three of 20 Padres in his Dodger debut. His 25.6 K-BB% would actually be his lowest mark since Pittsburgh because that’s how good he’s been. All estimators are within one-third of a run of his 2.70 ERA with none reaching three. Despite a 116 Stuff+ grade and 3.35 Bot ERA, a 64 grade four-seamer (55.9%, 2.3 RV/100) is his only above average pitch via PitchingBot, though all are above average by run value.
Opp wRC+: 121 (19.3 K% & now even less w/ Arraez) (incl. Thurs)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.71
Michael King has to be wondering what he did to deserve seeing the Dodgers three times in his first eight appearances (8.1 IP – 41 BF – 5 HR) and also for 10 of his 12 barrels flying out the park. The Dodgers are responsible for half of those on each count, but it’s not like he’s been much better against other weak offenses like the Phillies, Brewers or at Coors. Yes, it’s been a tough go for King with double digit barrel and walk rates, but aside from all non-FIP estimators remaining above four and within half a run of his 4.29 ERA, he has just a 92 Stuff+ grade without all three pitches he throws more than 20% of the time grading between 45 and 50 (PB).
Opp wRC+: 138 (10.3 K-BB%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.58
DFS Notes: Around 60 degrees in this extremely negative run environment too. That said, I’m not paying up for the most expensive pitcher on the board in a difficult, low upside spot. It’ll probably be fine for run prevention and Glasnow can rack up double digit Ks against anyway, so it’s still fine, but not my preferred play. King is almost more interesting for $7K. We know the Dodgers man-handled him, but he’s better than that price in the long run. Still, I like others mentioned in that price range much more. At just 3.23 implied runs, Padres are of no interest. Dodgers at 4.27 are a little more desirable, but expensive as always. I’ve jammed Ohtani (208 wRC+, .385 ISO v RHP since LY) into single entry lineups on both sites.
Update 5:45 EST: Pitcher friendly umpire.
Athletics @ Mariners
Paul Blackburn was punished in back to back road starts in the Bronx and Baltimore, but has allowed just four runs over 26 innings against marginal or worse offenses at home. While he’s struck out just 18.8% of batters faced, a career best 11.4 SwStr% suggests more is possible, but he’d probably have to increase the 13.1 CStr% that’s a career low. Estimators ranging from a 3.64 xFIP to a 4.24 xERA are still fairly strong, even if more than a half run above his 3.00 ERA (.235 BABIP, 80.6 LOB%). Pitch modeling agrees that he’s probably…fine (96 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+) with a 67 grade cutter (20.1%) being the primary driver.
Opp wRC+: 95 (29.5 K%) (incl. Thurs)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.15
Ric Flair…I mean Bryan WOO! makes his season debut coming off a 16.7 K-BB% rookie season over 87.2 innings. He struck out 17 of 39 AAA batters without a walk. I’d say he’s ready (18 BF last outing). His fastball/sinker/slider led to the massive platoon split you’d expect (LHBs .396 wOBA, .343 xwOBA w/ RHBs < .240), but who are the left-handed Oakland bats who can exploit him? Projection systems have him a bit below four this year.
Opp wRC+: 102 (158 L7 days)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.30
DFS Notes: In the most negative environment in the league, domed or not, Blackburn is very interesting in a high upside spot, Woo a bit less so due to the higher cost and generally lesser workload, injury or not. The Mariners do have a 4.11 team run total, but SO many strikeouts. If not playing Blackburn, batters from either side are between a .320 and .330 xwOBA against him since last year and Mariners are fairly affordable on both sites. Rojas (109 wRC+, .126 ISO v RHP since LY) and Raleigh (115, .224) are my favored plays on either site, both above a 140 wRC+ L30 days. Considering Woo’s massive split, I like left-handed Oakland bats as value plays (or a value stack), particularly Abraham Toro (126, .168) out of the second spot.
Reds @ Giants
Andrew Abbott has struck out 15 of his last 43 Orioles and Rangers, but exceeded a nine percent swinging strike rate for the first time last time out (15.5%), making his 22.4 K% seem unsustainable with just an 8.0 SwStr% overall. He throws an average fastball (50 PB grade) 53.1% of the time with a 13.2 Whiff% with only his changeup (32.6 Whiff%, 15.6% usage) up over 30%. It doesn’t seem like a profile (94 Stuff+) that will miss a lot of bats and doesn’t get a ton of called ones to make up for it. With just a 33% hard contact rate, a 3.04 xERA is below his 3.32 actual ERA, but without any other estimators below four. There’s likely some regression to come here, especially with a terrible defense behind him.
Opp wRC+: 98 (20.3 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.04
Logan Webb has been the opposite of Abbot, coming off two poor starts (nine runs, 7.1 IP) with a 47.3% hard contact rate driving a 4.72 xERA well above his 3.50 ERA that’s within half a run of all other estimators. It’s true, Webb is not missing many bats this year (18.3 K%, 7.4 SwStr%, 93 Z-Contact%), but counters that by staying away from barrels (6.1%) and inducing bad swings (29.7 Z-O-Swing%) to keep contact on the ground (58.8%). Supporting this, pitch modeling still loves the arsenal (112 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+) despite the lack of strikeouts, led by a 62 grade sweeper (PB) a pitch the Reds have had trouble with (-0.79 wSL/C) and 57 changeup, making up 61.5% of the pitches he’s thrown.
Opp wRC+: 80 (28.2 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.70
Despite the ERAs, Webb is the better pitcher here, whether you’re using longer estimators or pitch modeling. Even with some guys banged up, the Giants are probably still the better offense and the far better defense. Giants -150 F5 at home.
DFS Notes: Temps in the 60s in a negative run environment where wind doesn’t matter much, Fernando Cruz, perhaps Cincy’s best reliever, has thrown in two straight, including 29 pitches on Thusday. Still, both teams are below four implied runs, the Reds the second lowest team on the board (3.2). I like Webb for a bounce back in a high upside spot, especially if others are scared off by recent performance and he only costs $8.5K on DK. I still don’t trust Abbott, but he’s cheap with a few Giants down, though still not a lot of high strikeout bats projected. That said, right-handed Giants are also cheap on FD, affordable on DK. Chapman and Flores exceed a 130 wRC+, .200 ISO against LHP since last season. Tyler Stephenson is the only projected Red below a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year, but also one of only three above a 95 wRC+ overall in the last 30 days.
Update 6:30 EST: Ford bats third for Reds. Wade in for Lee. Bottom of SFG lineup full of AAA bats (Schmitt, Ramos, Fitzgerald, Reetz). Miniscule 0.32% gain on SF F5.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
Add comment
Comments