Not that there's ever a good time to have an excel crash, but if you must, do it on a small slate. And that's why we're still three games short on a half board for Thursday. They'll be gotten to and even DFS notes for the three game slate on Thursday.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Diamondbacks @ Reds
Slade Cecconi has had swinging strike rates of 11.9% (Mariners) and 12.9% (Padres) since just 3.1% in his first start (Giants). Despite a 45 Future Value grade, Fangraphs projects all of his pitches and his command as already average. He’s allowed three home runs, but just a pair of barrels with some strong pitch metrics. Models project a 2.82 Bot ERA (67 grade four-seamer) along with 101 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades. He’s also only walked three batters. Cecconi is off to a better start than his 4.96 ERA would suggest and is showing some upside in his second go around.
Opp wRC+: 79 (28.4%)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.74
Four walks for Hunter Greene last time out against the Orioles, bookending his season with half of his 16 walks with just eight in between. He’s pretty much held that walk rate a bit above nine percent each season and while his strikeout rate (27.8%) and swinging strike rate (12%) are both down a bit, the contact profile has improved vastly. Though we can’t call it predictive, it’s better than bad contact. He’s more than halved his barrel rate (4%) and dropped his hard hit rate about 10 points (31.7%). The result is estimators that range from a 2.42 xERA to a 4.08 xFIP to go with some of the most dynamic stuff in baseball (133 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 85 (20.4 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.09
You’ve got a pair of offenses no higher than an 85 wRC+ against RHP against a pair of dynamic young arms (while Greene is obviously the one with superstar potential). The 4.5 F5 total seems a bit too high here and we’re getting even money on it going under. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.)
Update 12 EST: The one thing I didn't account for was rain potentially forcing these starting pitchers out earlier than desired. Swish Analytics is also listing Moscoso, one of the more hitter friendly umpires in the league. Only lineup changes are both backup catchers for the day game.
Mariners @ Twins
Logan Gilbert has walked four in two of his last three starts, but then just one in every other start. He’s also allowed more than two runs in just a single start. The 1.69 ERA is backed by a strong 20.9 K-BB% that projects estimators from a 3.12 xERA to a 3.34 dERA plus a 120 Stuff+ grade. The walk issues happened against Houston and Texas. Two really tough spots. I’m not worried.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.37
The skills appear to still be firmly in place (24.8 K-BB%), but the hard hit rate is up to 43.8% with a mere 99 Stuff+ grade. Even PitchingBot, which loved the entire arsenal last year, only grades the four-seamer (57) above 47. The pitches still have the same whiff rates as last year, though he’s increased his fastball usage 10 points to 44%, so he knows that’s the pitch that’s working. His sweeper has gone from a .210 wOBA against to .329, but with just a .220 xwOBA. This seems like great news and just some misfortune, if the hard hit rate weren’t up by nearly 10 points too. He may need to stop throwing his curveball and sinker at all (14.9% combined) with those pitches seeming to be major culprits. There’s also the fact that six of his seven barrels have left the park. He has an amazing 77 Z-Contact% without a non-FIP estimator above a 3.02 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 97 (29 K%)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.35
Update 12:15 EST: Temps in 60s with double digit wind in from LF. Twins get an extra RHB in towards the bottom of the order (Margot & Martin in for Correa & Kirilloff) against Gilbert's small reverse platoon. Ty France is out for Seattle. Slight line movement towards the Mariners. I also see I forgot to mention Pablo Lopez's name above. Can you guess where the excel crash occurred?
Giants @ Rockies
Keaton Winn is Jordan Hicks (59.1 GB%) with a slightly better K-BB (11.6%), but also an awful 48.9% hard contact rate. So, he’s not really Hicks, except for the ground ball rate. The results of most of that hard contact being grounded are a 4.41 xERA that matches his ERA exactly, but no other estimators reaching four. Throwing the splitter 42.2% of the time appears to be paying off for him. It’s the only offering with a positive PB grade (57), leading to an overall 111 Stuff+ grade. He had allowed a single run over six innings in three straight starts before not making it through the order even once in Philly last time out.
Opp wRC+: 71 (28.3 K%, 7.6 HR/FB)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.75
Cal Quantrill struck out nine Pirates without a walk over 7.2 shutout innings, allowing only three hits last time out. His 10.1 SwStr% was his second best game of the season in that regard and he merely allowed a 62.5% hard contact rate (10 batted balls). In other words, as fluky as fluky gets. He’s only struck out more than four in one other outing and still has just a 7.2 K-BB% on the season. That said, all non-FIP estimators are within half a run of his 4.31 ERA with six of his 10 barrels turning into home runs. PitchingBot does grade some above average secondaries, but just a 4.80 Bot ERA to go with a 93 Stuff+ mark.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -2
B30: 4.06
Update 1:10 EST: Temps around 50 with a 10 mph wind in from center field. You know, the same type of conditions that resulted in 14 runs last night. Thanks for the lineup Giants. Soler & Bailey injured, but Chapman and Lee out too. The result is just a 0.88% loss on the Giants F5. I'd almost rather my exposure going under on the Rockies' run total at this point.
Astros @ Yankees
This is a matchup between a pair of the most generally over-valued pitchers in the league this season and pitch modeling confirms it. Ronel Blanco is sitting on a 2.09 ERA with a league average 13.2 K-BB% and admittedly great contact profile (4.1% Barrels/BBE, 31.6 Hard%) that projects an amazing 2.48 xERA that appears completely unsustainable with a .179 BABIP and 89.5 LOB%. He’s also coming off his lowest velocity for any start in his career (93.1 mph) and doesn’t have a single pitch reaching an average 50 PitchingBot grade (4.74 BotERA). This is a spot where both models agree though (95 Stuff+ & Pitching+ grades). Both his SIERA and xFIP (contact neutral estimators) are a full two runs above his ERA as well.
Opp wRC+: 123 (9.0 K-BB%, 15.3 HR/FB)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.96
Marcus Stroman has failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in three of his last four starts, including 10 walks over his last two starts. He, too, has been a strong contact manager (57.3 GB%, 5.8% Barrels/BBE, 33.7% hard hit rate), but with just a 9.3 K-BB% and a 41 grade slurve that he throws 10.6% of the time as his top graded pitch (5.53 Bot ERA). A 3.65 dERA is his only estimator below four with 93 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 105 (17 K%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.63
Guardians @ White Sox
A pair of castaways, who have become vaguely interesting matchup in this game. Ben Lively has posted a 21.5 K-BB% through four starts, but hold on. He has just a 9.6 SwStr%, 51.6 Z-O-Swing% and 44.4% hard contact rate. Just 29.6% of his contact has been on the ground and it appears to be over 60% 90.2 mph four-seamers and sinkers being thrown right down the pipe too often. I can’t conceive of how he’s possibly accomplishing any of this with a 77 Stuff+ grade. The sweeper (17.9%) gets a 57 PitchingBot grade, but just a 20 Whiff%. I don’t get it, but it’s another great spot here.
Opp wRC+: 75 (74 Home, 60 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 2.81
Twenty of Erick Fedde’s 41 strikeouts came in back to back starts in Minnesota and against Tampa Bay. He’s struck out just 21 of his other 111 batters faced. He’s running an overall 25 K% (18 K-BB%) with just an 8.5 SwStr%, allowing 9.3% Barrels/BBE, but has overall 101 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades (3.97 Bot ERA). Fedde has thrown a four pitch mix 20-30% of the time with only his sinker (43) grading below average. While I don’t expect him to sustain a 3.46 ERA that’s already below estimators that may rise above four, there does appear to be something more interesting going on here.
Opp wRC+: 96 (19.1 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.48
DFS Notes: I immediately regret my decision to cover daily fantasy on this three game slate with one game where temperatures will be around 50 (this one) with the potential for a washout, another in a dome and the last the obvious offensive spot, though you may need to grab an SP2 there as well.
The Guardians top the board at 4.38 runs under awful conditions in Chicago. In addition to cold and rainy we also have a double digit wind which may be blowing out to right or left to right only adding to the confusion. As mentioned, I think both pitchers are over-valued here and while Fedde might be the more interesting, is facing a Cleveland offense that doesn’t strike out enough for him to have value at a cost of $8.5K or above. Lively is in a great spot and might have some value at $7.6K, weather permitting. He costs a ridiculous $10K on FanDuel. In terms of bats, Pham (112 wRC+, .169 ISO v RHP since LY) and Sheets (91, .153) are the White Sox I like. LHBs have a .361 wOBA/xwOBA against Lively since last year (did he even pitch last year?) with RHBs around league average (.303/.308). Both of these guys are just above a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Only Ramos and DeJong among projected White Sox can also say this. Estevan Florial (77, .147) is a/the top value play on this slate merely because he’s expected to bat leadoff for a cost of $3K or less. LHBs have a .328/.309 mark against Fedde this season. Gimenez (97, .144) may be your top second base play. Josh Naylor (161) is the only projected Guardian to reach a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Update 4:30 EST: If there's not enough chaos in this game. Angel Hernandez is behind the plate via Swish Analytics. Florial out for Fry kills one value spot, but Rocchio (105 wRC+ v RHP career) creates another one. Only you have to sacrifice the top bat on the board (Witt) to get there. Yuck.
Cardinals @ Brewers
Four of the six runs Sonny Gray has allowed in five starts came in a single inning against the Mets with three of them being unearned. He’s dominated to the tune of a 28.9 K-BB% with just 4.2% Barrels/BBE and a 29.6% hard hit rate. Gray doesn’t have a single estimator reaching three and only a 2.90 dERA reaching two and a half. With all of this, of course he has just a 96 Stuff+ grade, but add in the command/location aspect and it rises to a 106 Pitching+ and 3.06 Bot ERA with a 71 grade four-seamer
Opp wRC+: 122 (114 Home)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.29
After striking out nine of 39 Yankees and Pirates with just a single walk, Tobias Myers walked four of 16 Cubs with just two strikeouts. Aside from a 20% strikeout rate he may have trouble sustaining with just a 7.2 SwStr% that has decreased with each start, he’s also allowed five home runs. Now, that accounts for all of his barrels, but 12.8% of his batted balls being barreled is not a great start with just one-third of his contact on the ground. Nearly 26 already, Myers has just a 35+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) with average the ceiling on his best pitchers and command, he’s spent parts of seasons in AAA since 2021 for five different organizations with results all over the place.
Opp wRC+: 92 (81 Road, 83 L7 days)
DEF: 7
B30: 4.05
DFS Notes: Roof closed, this is a neutral run environment (98 Run Factor Statcast 3 Year). With it open, that drops to 94 on average, though it’s a power friendly park, more so to lefties, either way. Sonny Gray is the easy top pitcher on the slate, no ifs ands or buts. The Brewers have a board low 3.48 team run total with the Cardinals third from the bottom at 4.02. I don’t see enough appeal in Myers, though it’s a favorable spot and you may think differently for $6.2K. With most of their decent hitters fairly costly, I see no value in Milwaukee bats tonight, other than the fact they’ll likely carry very low ownership on a miniscule slate. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA/xwOBA against Gray since last year. Small sample, massive reverse split for Myers (LHBs < .270 wOBA/xwOBA, RHBs > .420). Burleson and Wynn are the only pair in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year, but Burleson and Arenado the only two above a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days. I like Herrera (117 wRC+, .107 ISO vs RHP since LY) as a catcher value, while Arenado (120, .182) is too cheap on FD even if he’s not my top third baseman.
Update 5:05 EST: Herrera is out. Find another value catcher. Also, Carlson in for Goldshmidt. Chourio is out again too. Did I miss an injury? Roof closed. Line movement towards Cards.
Royals @ Angels
Michael Wacha has a pair of quality starts with a total of two runs allowed. Outside of that, he’s allowed 21 runs over 24.2 innings. He’s also carrying a 14.8 K% after punching out 13 of his last 42 batters. His fastball remains up a mph with the same 16% whiff rate, but a .500 wOBA and .444 xwOBA that’s double and 100 points higher than last year. The changeup is still performing like a weapon (34.2%, 34.9 Whiff%, 2.8 RV/100, 76 PB grade), but is about the only thing working in an arsenal receiving an 88 Stuff+ grade. All that said, his 5.50 ERA is still well above estimators ranging from a 3.83 FIP to a 4.66 dERA (.350 BABIP, 66.1 LOB%), but with a SIERA and xFIP above four and a half after those first two starts.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.34
Reid Detmers has also cratered over his last three starts with 16 runs over 17.2 innings behind an 8.9 K-BB% and eight barrels (13.8%), after allowing just four runs (three earned) over his 22.2 innings with a 26.7 K-BB% and just two barrels. He has the same 97/98 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades over this span that he does on the season and there’s been no velocity drop off, so it seems as if something’s deteriorated with the command over this span. Can he get it back?
Opp wRC+: 77 (19.5 K%)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.90
DFS Notes: This is where the majority of my offenses is coming from. It’s the most hitter and power friendly park on the slate, considering conditions in Chicago, with temps in the 60s, but a near 10 mph wind out to left center. Both teams are at 4.25 implied runs. You also may be choosing a pitcher in this game, especially if playing on DraftKings. My choice would be Wacha, simply because he’s cheaper and I’m stacking Royals. I’m also adding some Angels anyway because I need the savings for Gray (and Witt) and it’s a three game slate. If you want to go completely contrarian, ditch the bats here and roster both pitchers and pray. Mickey Moniak (116 wRC+, .219 ISO v RHP since LY) and Willie Calhoun (113, .179) are my value bats of choice on DK. However, if playing on FD, Neto and Schanuel are the only pair projected below a .150 ISO against RHP since last season. You can find value throughout this lineup. Despite the changeup, batters from either side of the plate are between a .298 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA against Wacha since 2023 and it’s RHBs at both those extremes. Bobby Witt (123 wRC+, .223 ISO against LHP since LY) is my top bat on the board and Maikel Garcia (106, .169) is second. They’re also the only pair of Royals to reach a 100 wRC+ against southpaws since last year. However, my DK stack includes Perez (86, .146), Pasquantino (89, .096) and Hampson (86, .085) as well. The reasons being LHBs hold a .373 wOBA & .343 xwOBA against Detmers since last season (RHBs, .303/.313), Perez (169) and Pasquantino (149) are the only player projected besides Witt (153) above a 90 wRC+ over the last 30 days and Hampson is just dirt cheap.
Update 7 EST: No Angels lineup yet. Finding it very hard to make a lineup with only five Royals allowed.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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