I’m not even sure how many games I got through here on Monday night. I just know that there comes a point, generally somewhere around midnight and halfway through a full 15 game slate, where my brain starts to shut down and the same thoughts seem to come out with better words in the morning. One thing that’s become frustrating to see from a daily fantasy perspective is all the east coast teams that have adopted the earlier weekday start times. Don’t get me wrong, I find any slate more than 10 or 11 games a bit wearing and overbearing, but they’re starting to get too small now and there are several parks we won’t get to play in all season long aside from a few earlier starting smaller slates or weekends. And it’s not even necessary to get the games over so much earlier with the pitch clock now either. I understand it earlier in the season with the daylight and weather, but we’re moving past that in May. Let’s get some (not all) of these parks/games back on the main slate.
All stats through Sunday. Legend at bottom of page.
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Rangers @ Athletics
The only unconfirmed pitcher on the slate, this might be Jack Leiter. I’ll elaborate if need be when we have a line up, but essentially, he has the goods (111 Stuff+ first start), but had a lot of issues with command in his first start, walking three of 22 batters with as many strikeouts. He has a 37 K% at AAA this year.
Opp wRC+: 94 (152 L7days)
DEF: 10
B30: 3.64
Despite a 15.8 K%, Ross Stripling hasn’t been terrible because he’s only walked 4.7% with 2.9% Barrels/BBE (32.4 Hard%). Estimators running from a 3.38 FIP to a 4.46 dERA. That’s an average pitcher folks, which his 4.12 Bot ERA and 100 Pitching+ (88 Stuff+ though) confirm.
Opp wRC+: 111 (18.9 K%)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.05
Update 2:30 EST: Urena starting for the Rangers here. He projects about one-third of a run worse than Leiter, near five. It's enough for me to make this game close to even and nearly enough for me to take action on the A's at a slightly positive price, but we're dealing with a pitcher making his first start and not likely to last very long.
Tigers @ Guardians
Kenta Maeda’s velocity has continued his velocity climb, up above 90 mph each of the last two games. It’s not much, but he’s struck out 10 of 40 batters, allowing just a run over 11 innings to the Rays and Cardinals. With as many barrels as home runs (eight each), his non-FIP estimators are all now below his 5.02 ERA with a respectable 12.5 K-BB%.
Opp wRC+: 98 (19.3 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.19
Logan Allen has allowed fewer than three runs only in his second start in Seattle and has a lower K-BB (11.9%) than Maeda. With all estimators below his 5.11 ERA, these two pitchers average out to basically the same estimators.
Opp wRC+: 85 (82 Road)
DEF: 3
B30: 2.86
Update 4:30 EST: Large scale changes in the Detroit lineup. The end result is eight RHBs against Allen (RHBs .341 wOBA, .333 xwOBA since last year). Still, considering the MLB best estimators for the Cleveland pen over the last 30 days and just three batters in the Detroit lineup above an 80 wRC+ over the last 30 days as well, an team under at plus money is a reasonable consideration here. However, we have slightly hitter friendly weather before rain potentially moves in late in the game, which could end it early.
Diamondbacks @ Reds
Both of these pitchers are coming off recent injury issues, but Zac Gallen the shorter turnaround, having last pitched on April 26th. Even before the hamstring bug, his velocity has been down this season (1.0 mph). He still has an extremely healthy 19.5 K-BB% with 4.5% Barrels/BBE. However, he’s done it with a 52.3% hard hit rate projecting a 3.95 xERA that’s the highest of his estimators, which stretch as low as a 3.17 xFIP. Pitch modeling knows something’s up though. Gallen has a 4.88 Bot ERA and 94 Stuff+ with his curveball (53) the only above average pitch grade (PB). No qualified pitcher has a worse Z-Contact rate than Gallen’s 94.4% and only Soroka is worse today.
Opp wRC+: 80 (28.5 K%)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.6
Frankie Montas lasted just three batters on April 21st and returns from a forearm issue without a rehab star as far as I can tell. I’d expect some limitation on a pitcher coming in with just four plus starts and a 4.8 K-BB%. Optimistically, he does have a 102 Stuff+ grade (99 Pitching+) with his three most frequently thrown pitches (four-seam/sinker/splitter) all grading 50 or better via PitchingBot.
Opp wRC+: 88 (19.9 K% though)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.09
Update 3:35 EST: Temps in the 70s, but a tricky double digit wind blowing in from somewhere around the right field pole. The D'Backs have reverted back to Carroll and Marte at one/two with Montero sitting. Friedl is back for the Reds at Martini's expense.
Angels @ Pirates
I’m not going to lie. The first thing I notice about Patrick Sandoval is his 10.8 BB% and I’m surprised to all of his estimators more than two runs below his 5.91 ERA. That’s because he’s struck out 25.7% with 4.3% Barrels/BBE and has really only had a pair of bad road starts in tough parks. He also hasn’t completed six innings in a game yet because those pitch counts run up pretty quickly with all the walks, but it addition to the estimators, his fastball (22.2%, 43 PB grade) is the only below average pitch grade among the three he throws more than 12% of the time and the entire package produces perfectly average 100 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ grades. It’s all about the .396 BABIP and 57.5 LOB%.
Opp wRC+: 110 (10.8 BB%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.21
Quinn Priester has some favorable scouting grades (Fangraphs) with a 50 Future Value overall, 70 curveball and with the potential for a 55 slider and command. However, he’s failed to apply that over his 66.1 major league innings so far (4.6 K-BB%). Pitch modeling isn’t any better with an 81 Stuff+ grade and PitchingBot not giving even a 50 grade to any single one of his offerings.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -8
B30: 4.07
Update 3:10 EST: Neutral weather here allows the park to keep it's neutral run environment. Cruz is out, giving the Pirates nine RHBs, which does make some sense, considering Sandoval's 70 point split since last year. Rengifo and Drury remain out in favor of Pillar and Tucker, which may add a small fraction to Priester's strikeout projections.
Blue Jays @ Phillies
With an 18.3 K% and 50.4% hard contact rate, all estimators are at least two and a half runs above Jose Berrios’s 1.44 ERA, ranging from a 3.93 dERA to a 4.91 xERA. He similarly posts a below average 95 Stuff+ grade, though Pitching+ brings that up to 101. PitchingBot, on the other hand, grades all his offerings between 51 and 54 with the exception of a 47 grade four-seamer (13.5%).
Opp wRC+: 109 (109 Home & L7days too)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.61
Two stinkers in a row for Cristopher Sanchez. He’s struck out just four of his last 40, while walking five after striking out 10 Rockies. In fact, 18 of his 29 strikeouts have come in just two starts against the Rockies and Reds. He does have a 62.2 GB% and has allowed just 4.4% Barrels/BBE, but is now up to a 9.8% walk rate. Pitch modeling wavers between thinking he’s okay (100 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+) and awesome (3.01 Bot ERA with a 60 grade sinker thrown 49.1% of the time). This is a really tough spot for him, as you can see from Toronto’s numbers below.
Opp wRC+: 113 (7.7 K-BB%)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.61
Update 4:10 EST: Line movement towards the Blue Jays (Phils -116) with Realmuto and Bohm out, but I think it's too much. It does get another LHB in against Berrios, though not a quality one. I'm just not buying his hot start. Sanchez has far better estimators on average (around 3/4 of a run), while the Phillies have a large bullpen edge. Weather should have minimal impact.
Orioles @ Nationals
On the one hand, Corbin Burnes has gone six straight starts since his Orioles debut without striking out more than six batters (15 K-BB%, 11.6 SwStr%). On the other hand, that game still counts and is a major reason why his non-FIP estimators only extend as far a 3.24 SIERA. If you’re an alien with three hands, I guess his 3.71 FIP counts too. If you want to start counting on feet as well, the stuff is still some of the best in the league (120 Stuff+, 111 Pitching+, 3.34 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 101 (21.6 K%)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.43
Trevor Williams has an 8.0 K-BB% and 42.2% hard hit rate, but just 4.4% Barrels/BBE, which works out to a 3.26 xERA that’s still a run above his 2.27 ERA (no home runs). Pitching Bot has always liked the fastball (35%, 55 grade), but he still gets just an 81 Stuff+ grade (91 Pitching+). Batters from either side are still within a .345 to .366 wOBA and xwOBA range against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 107 (122 Road)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.51
I feel like we still may be seeing Corbin Burnes and the Washington offense priced as if it’s still Opening Day. A lot of has happened since then to move these two pieces closer to the average. I’m not there yet, but if it gets to +200…or I may even consider at the current price (+190) at a later point.
Update 3:50 EST: In the 70s with a light breeze out to left. These two teams line up exactly as projected with minimal line movement.
White Sox @ Rays
Mike Soroka has allowed just two runs in each of his last two starts, but remember that Z-Contact rate we alluded to for Gallen above? Well, Soroka’s is 100% over these last two starts and he’s still sitting on a -2 K-BB% for the season without an estimator below five and a half.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.48
Zach Eflin hasn’t been able to find and keep a rhythm in 2024 yet. That said, he’s only walked four batters, which not only pushes all of his estimators at least half a run below his 4.17 ERA with just a 21.1 K%, but also contributes to his PitchingBot grades, which are 60 or better on his sinker, slider, cutter and curveball. It also reflects a 96 Stuff+, but 107 Pitching+. Matching those pitch grades up with what the White Sox struggle against, we only find his 63 grade sinker (CWS -0.92 wSI/C 27th).
Opp wRC+: 76 (68 Road)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.59
Considering the awful starting pitching, defenses and bullpen combination for the White Sox, I’m going to attack this with Tampa Bay’s run total (o4.5 -120) with the bats starting to come around. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network, not necessarily for the plays, but quicker info dumps.)
Update 3:20 EST: No significant lineup changes. I chose my exposure to the Rays in this game based on their run total (4.5) rather than laying a large price. The price has only moved slightly from -120 to -125.
Astros @ Yankees
Let’s start with the good news. Justin Verlander has a 125 Stuff+ grade and has allowed hard contact at just a 31.3% rate through three starts, leading to a 2.08 ERA. And that’s about it because he also has just an 8.8 K-BB%, having allowed 10.4% Barrels/BBE. Verlander is pretty famous for being an outlier in terms of beating his estimators on a fairly consistent basis as an extreme fly baller with great peripherals. However, we’re talking about half a run here, not by more than two runs. In fact, a 3.82 xERA is his only estimator within 2.29 runs, while PitchingBot (4.55 ERA) can’t find a 50 grade pitch in his arsenal yet.
Opp wRC+: 119 (9.8 K-BB%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.84
Luis Gil has struck out just 11 of his last 46 batters, but also has walked just three of them and shut out the Orioles over 6.1 innings on two hits in Baltimore last time out. As far as pitch modeling goes, he compares pretty favorably to Verlander with a 119 Stuff+ (100 Pitching+), but also two of his three pitches (four-seam and changeup) capturing grades of 50 and 51 respectively from PItchingBot (4.15 ERA). With just 4.4% Barrels/BBE and a 27.9% hard hit rate to go with his 15.4 K-BB%, Gil also has just a 2.29 ERA with no single estimator reaching above 4.09.
Opp wRC+: 107 (17.1 K%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.81
With Gil comparing favorably or better to Verlander in every aspect (even though it’s only been three starts for the latter) and no deficit to be found in this game for the Yankees at home, I’m thinking -116 (F5) might be a bit light. I’m going to say this now without looking at anything else.
DFS Notes: An eight game slate without a domed environment again and winds more impactful than temperatures and they are almost universally blowing out around double digits tonight with the exception of one spot where it’s very cold with winds whipping across the field at Coors. That doesn’t stop the Giants from topping the board at a whopping 5.84 implied runs and unlike yesterday, we find four and a half runs merely the halfway point on this board. My initial inclination is to pay down for pitching and that’s probably not going to change.
Temps around 70 with little wind effect at Yankee Stadium tonight. The only attraction to a $9K or more Verlander is the potential for low ownership. That said, I’m not particularly looking to attack him either. He’s overvalued, not bad and the only two Yankees worth rostering are extremely expensive. Now that Gil is within $200 of $8.5K on DK and FD, he may be more risk than reward. There may be a few more strikeouts in this Houston lineup now, but five of the first six are still below 17% against RHP since last year. You could say the same thing about the Houston offense that was just said about the Yankees. The most attractive batters are too expensive in a mediocre spot.
Update 4:45 EST: Bottom half of the lineup changes for both teams. The Yankees will lean into Verlander's reverse split tendencies with Trevino and Berti over Cabrera and Wells. Not a bit difference, but RHBs are 50 points wOBA, 25 points xwOBA better against Verlander since last year. The Astros replace Diaz and Luperfido with Cabbage and Caratini. That puts five LHBs in the Houston lineup for the first time in forever. The irony is that Gil has had a very small (by xwOBA) reverse split this year.
Red Sox @ Braves
Kutter Crawford his a 16.3 K-BB%, while only allowing 26.1% hard contact (6.3% Barrels/BBE). Now, that’s not 1.56 ERA good, but it’s 2.92 xERA with contact neutral estimators still below four good. PitchingBot (4.15 ERA) only gives him credit for a single above average pitch (55 four-seam thrown 29.3%), but Stuff+ and Pitching+ grade him at 108 and 104 respectively.
Opp wRC+: 108 (119 Home, but 80 L7days)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.75
Reynaldo Lopez more than doubled his season run total with the three he allowed in Seattle last time out. Like Crawford, his 18.3 K-BB% and 5.4% Barrels/BBE are not 1.50 ERA good, but it’s 3.22 ERA with contact neutral estimators in the mid-threes good. The difference between the two pitchers is a 44.6 Hard% for Lopez that makes up for the two point K-BB% difference a bit. However, he doesn’t have a single pitch that PitchingBot grades average of better and just a 96 Stuff+ (98 Pitching+) mark.
Opp wRC+: 102 (115 Road)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.73
Wrote, but forgot to post this on Monday night because, as mentioned in the open, the brain starts to turn off after more than 12 straight hours of baseball thinking, reading, watching and writing per day around midnight. Two pitchers face off in this game with their ERAs barely combining to reach three, but also very similar estimators with Lopez slightly favored and pitch modeling with Crawford slightly favored. There’s not much of an offensive gap either, which is a surprise. The Braves couldn’t even touch Paxton on Sunday. With defense and bullpens a wash, I’m not in line with the Braves as anything much more than a small favorite here.
DFS Notes: We reach 80 degrees here, but the 10 mph wind is in from right or closer to the RF corner, probably not affecting RHBs as much. The Braves have a 4.88 implied run line against a pretty good pitcher. A pretty good pitcher, who is only slightly interesting against the slumping Braves at $8.5K or more. I might have some exposure in multi, but wouldn’t be too upset if I couldn’t find any spots for him. That said, I’m not finding many spots for expensive Atlanta bats here either, but low ownership would be the attraction here also. I’m also not paying for an over-priced Lopez here and despite their 3.62 run total, I do have some interest in Boston bats. Well, really just one. Third base is a tough spot tonight and I think Rafael Devers (131 wRC+, .240 ISO v RHP since last year, 185 L30 days overall) might be the best choice out there, while not finding a lot of value at the position either. Wilyer Abreu (152, .189, 161) is viable here too. LHBs have a .287 wOBA, but .320 xwOBA against Lopez since last year.
Update 3:45 EST: Not much to report here. McGuire in for Wong. Wolf leans pitcher friendly behind the plate. Lost -2.36% might be my biggest loss on an opening line this year.
Padres @ Cubs
Randy Vasquez has struck out just five of 37 batters faced with three walks, allowing two home runs, but just a single barrel. However, 46.4% of his contact has been hard struck. PitchingBot loves the sweeper that he’s thrown second most often (21.3%, 70 grade), which, along with a 53 grade fastball (39.1%) is enough to give him a 3.89 BotERA and 111 Stuff+. The issue is command that’s led to a 101 Pitching+ with a 40 current and future command grade from Fangraphs. Vasquez has now produced just an 8.4 K-BB% over 45.1 innings and has struggled with control throughout his minor league travels as well.
Opp wRC+: 97 (includes Monday stats from here on, except for Coors)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.41
He doesn’t throw it that hard (92.1 mph and dropping from start to start), but Shota Imanaga throws his fastball well, locating it up in the zone with 58.3% usage, combining it with spiltters down (28.9%) to produce a completely unsustainable 0.78 ERA (.220 BAIP, 90.5 LOB%, 4.8 HR/FB), but also a 23.5 K-BB% with just 5.4% Barrels/BBE. His worst estimators (by nearly half a run) is a 3.62 dERA and while pitch modeling is not crazy about the pure stuff (99 Stuff+), again, it’s the way that he uses it (108 Stuff+, 2.59 Bot ERA), especially the heater at the top of the zone (70 PB grade). You do start to worry about when the wind begins blowing out at Wrigley, which is the case today (10 mph out to center w/ temps near 70).
Opp wRC+: 92 (8.4 K-BB%)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 4.07
DFS Notes: Temps around 70 and as mentioned above, double digit wind out to center. Is this the first hitter friendly Wrigley game of the year? The Padres have just a 3.99 run total, but I think Imanaga might be over-valued here and his extreme fly ball tendencies worry me just a bit here. Kim, Machado, Campusano and Tatis all exceed a 130 wRC+ and .195 ISO against southpaws since last season. Vasquez is cheap, but the Cubs have the top team total (5.01) outside Coors. With LHBs at a .373 wOBA and .402 xwOBA against Vasquez in his career, I’m really hoping Bellinger doesn’t come back tonight because I love Mike Tauchman (117 wRC+, .135 ISO v RHP since LY, 156 wRC+ L30 days overall) as a top bat and value tonight and would like to keep him near the top of the lineup. My initial single entry on both DK & FD includes Ian Happ (123, .167) as well. He’s struggled (71 wRC+ L30), but is fairly cheap. Michael Busch (103, .201) is another cheap bat on FD. I currently have him in my UTIL spot.
Update 5:10 EST: Some "stuff" to get to here. The line has moved towards the Cubs. Bill Miller is about as pitcher friendly as it gets, perhaps mitigating some of the positive weather effects. Bellinger (115, .199) is back, but Tauchman is still in the second spot. Bellinger is a great value on FD for less than $3K. Are the Padres planning on platooning Arraez? Cronenworth is the only LHB in the lineup, though we don't have enough info on Imanaga to know if he has a platoon issue yet. A fastball/splitter combo doesn't really lean into that as much.
Mariners @ Twins
With a 47.9% hard contact rate and just 17.6 K%, a 5.75 xERA is exactly a run above Emmerson Hancock’s 4.75 ERA. In fact, it’s the only estimator he has more than one-third of a run removed from actual results. Pitch modeling thinks he may be slightly better with an 87 Stuff+ grade, but 100 Pitching+ and 4.12 Bot ERA, but Hancock hasn’t done much to prove that he’s anything more than a fifth start/swingman type yet.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.70
Bailey Ober allowed more than two runs for the first time since his disastrous first start last time out, giving up for with just three strikeouts in Chicago (AL). It was the third time in six starts he’s struck out three or fewer with six or more in each of his other three. Despite throwing the fastball nearly a mph faster on average this year (92.2 mph), it has just a 49 PB grade and -2.3 RV/100. However, the other two pitches he throws more than 20% of the time (cutter, change) both grade above 60 with more positive run values, especially the 71 grade change with a 39.3 Whiff%. With a healthy 16.8 K-BB%, 12.2% Barrels/BBE has been the problem, though a 3.58 xERA is still nearly a run below his 4.55 ERA. In fact, a 4.60 dERA is his only estimator not at least 0.45 runs below actual results. He should be fine, if a bit inconsistent.
Opp wRC+: 95 (29.1 K%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.21
DFS Notes: In the 60s here, but 10 mph wind out to left is a neutralizer for RHBs at least. Still, it’s cheap, platoon left-handed Twins I’m interested in here and particularly Edouard Julien (145 wRC+, .229 ISO v RHP since LY), who is my favored second base value tonight. The Twins have a 4.59 team total, but I like them more than that because of their affordable price tags. LHBs have a .375 wOBA and .359 xwOBA against LHBs since last year. I still like Ryan Jeffers (141, .213) at a tough position tonight too. On the other side, Bailey Ober is not only my top pitching value, but he might be the top pitcher overall in such a high strikeout spot. He didn’t come through against the White Sox last night because baseball is generally extremely volatile over 162 games or 30-something starts, but I hope that only serves to push a few people away. I’m using Ober on both sites tonight. He’s just $7.6K on DK. I have little interest in Seattle bats (3.91) outside maybe Josh Rojas (195 wRC+ L30 days) in the leadoff spot. Almost verything except 1B and OF is tougher than usual today.
Update 4:55 EST: Vanover leans slightly hitter friendly. Mariners pull Raleigh and Raley for RHBs Zavala & Urias. No real impact on the K rates, but Ober does have the 40 point wOBA, 22 point xwOBA reverse platoon lean since last year and will now face just a pair of LHBs. I don't believe it's enough of hit to his value to pull away from him on either site.
Brewers @ Royals
There is nothing to indicate that Colin Rea can sustain a 2.67 ERA that is more than two runs below all estimators except a 4.58 xFIP. Not his 16 K%, 7.2 SwStr%, 46.9 Z-O-Swing%, 10,1% Barrels/BBE, .240 BABIP or 88.6 LOB%. You prefer pitch modeling metrics? Not his 4.38 BotERA, 87 Stuff+ or 94 Pitching+ grade either without a single above average graded pitch (sinker gets to exactly 50 via PB). LHBs are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year with RHBs below .315, so expect to see Adam Frazier in there again in place of either Velazquez or Renfroe.
Opp wRC+: 98 (18.4 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.96
After striking out just 14 of his first 126 batters, Seth Lugo has struck out 17 of his last 50 in back to back seven inning outings with a single run combined in Detroit and then Toronto. The caveat that applies here is that while he had a 12.6 SwStr% against the Tigers, he dropped right back down to 5% in Toronto and had just a 52 F-Strike% in both those starts. In other words, I’m not completely buying the quick turnaround, considering he still has just a 17.6 K% (8.0 SwStr%) and has allowed 9.0% Barrels/BBE, which has led to all non-FIP estimators remaining above four. You can probably credit pitching in almost exclusively power depressing environments so far for just three of his 12 barrels leaving the park. Pitch modeling suggests he’s the near average pitcher his estimators say he is and there’s nothing wrong with that.
Opp wRC+: 120 (112 Road)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.11
DFS Notes: Around 70 with a near double digit wind out to left center helps generate a 4.71 run total for the Royals (4.29 for the Brewers). While I think both pitchers have a smack of regression coming, I don’t absolutely hate Lugo for just $7.2K on DK, but would prefer Ober and the pitcher I have coming up later ahead of him. Frelick (94 wRC+, .088 ISO v RHP career) is fine as a cheap leadoff bat, but that’s about it. Left-handed Royals are the particular allure here, though Bobby Witt (122, .218) is still the top overall bat here and probably the top shortstop on the board. Vinnie Pasquantino (109, .211) is the only above average LHB against RHP since last year, but I like Massey (133 wRC+ L30 days) for within $300 of $3K on either site just behind Julien in terms of second base value.
Update 5:20 EST: In a good spot to finally use Frazier, the Royals finally sit him. Ortiz instead of Dunn has a much lower strikeout rate. It's a small, fractionable dip for Lugo from just a single batter, but something to be aware of.
Mets @ Cardinals
I don’t get across the board pitch modeling absolute hatred for Jose Butto with a 5.77 Bot ERA and all pitches graded below 45, along with 87 Stuff+ and 88 Pithcing+ grades. He has struggled with control (12.4 BB%), but five of his walks came against the Dodgers and outside of a rough first couple of innings against the Cardinals following that, he’s been perfectly fine. No, not 2.57 ERA fine. All of his estimators exceed that by more than a run, but he’s struck out 27.4% of batters with a 12.4 SwStr% and just 6.2% Barrels/BBE. You don’t miss barrels and bats completely like that with garbage stuff. His worst estimators are a 4.09 xFIP and dERA and I think pitch modeling might be missing something here, though because I’m not privy to the inner workings of such machinations, I’m at a loss to explain exactly what.
Opp wRC+: 88 (85 Home, 71 L7days)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.26
Having not walked a batter in three starts, Miles Mikolas has pitched his way to a league average 13.4 K-BB% (19.4% last three starts), but still doesn’t miss enough bats (6.3 SwStr%) now that his contact management magic is gone. He still remains at a 45.6% hard hit rate that produces a 5.31 xERA that is still below his 5.68 ERA, but more than a run above more contact neutral estimators like his 4.09 SIERA and 3.97 xFIP. Batters from both sides are now between a .334 and .359 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 103 (20.4 K%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.22
DFS Notes: While I’m not paying $9K for him, I really have no opinion on Butto for $8K on Draftkings, aside from saying I like some cheaper pitchers better. It’s in the 70s with a near double digit wind out to right center here, giving the Cardinals a 4.45 run teal total, but the Mets just 4.05. Cardinal bats are fine here, though the only ones that particularly capture my attention are generally the top two in the order. Donovan (117 wRC+, .162 ISO v RHP since last year) is between affordable (DK) and cheap (FD) and Contreras (128, .199) might be the top catcher tonight. I’m throwing the low total on the Mets out the window. Nimmo (140, .219) had two of the top five exit velocities in the league last night and makes my lineup on either site as a top outfielder and great value. In fact, I think the entire top half of the order has value on FanDuel, while Lindor (130 wRC+) is currently in my DK lineup with little value to be found at SS tonight.
Update 5:35 EST: Crawford in for Winn. Mets have chosen offense with Stewart (148, .291) in over Bader. He's a great OF value on either site.
Giants @ Rockies
Kyle Harrison has a 17.6 K-BB% over seven starts, but it’s slightly more interesting than that. He’s struck out 14 of his last 45 (12.2 SwStr%) and eight of his 10 walks have come in just two starts. That means he’s walked just two total in his other five with the issues coming against the Red Sox (in Boston) and the Dodgers. He’s generated these numbers throwing his four-seamer 65.5% of the time and while he generates just a 90 Stuff+ grade (96 Pitching+), PitchingBot gives the fastball an above average 55 grade and he’ll be facing an offense that’s bottom quarter of the league against four-seamers (-0.39 wFA/C). A 4.16 dERA is Harrison’s only estimator more than one-fifth of a run removed from his 3.79 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 83 (73 Home, 40 L7days)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.70
The Rockies love ground ball pitchers and Dakota Hudson does that (56.3%), but he’s also down more than half a mph on both his sinker and four-seamer this year with just a 0.7 K-BB%. Pitch modeling doesn’t see it getting much better either (4.90 Bot ERA, 85 Stuff+, 92 Pitching+). While all estimators are below his 5.73 ERA, only a 4.73 dERA is below five and batters from either side of the plate have at least a .349 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.29
With the large edges the Giants have in most areas, I think the price (especially F5) is too low here (-148).
DFS Notes: Don’t care about the weather because Hudson is pitching in this park. That’s how we get to Giants (5.84) nearly a run above any other offense anyway. That said, aside from Wade (191 wRC+ L30 days), I might go underweight on San Francisco bats here. He’s the only one I have in either of my single entry lineups. Giants’ stacks are far too cheap on FD though. The Rockies have a 4.66 team total that keeps them on the top half of the board. I don’t care. Kyle Harrison is my favored SP2 for just $6.4K. There’s nothing scary about this offense, even in this park, especially with temps near 50. The 23 wind across the field is the scariest thing here. Blackmon (101) and Stallings (95) are the only batters in the projected lineup above an 82 wRC+ against LHP since last year.
Update 5:45 EST: Virtually no change for the Giants F5 (0.32% gain). Flores in for Soler. Rockies sitting Blackmon and have just one LHB in the lineup. Congratulations. Harrison has a career reverse split so far (70 points by wOBA, 30 by xwOBA).
Marlins @ Dodgers
There’s an interesting contrast between these two pitchers. Edward Cabrera has trouble getting his pitches over the plate too often, as he’s walked nine of his last 63 batters after a single walk in his first start. This, despite a 60+ F-Strike% in each of his four starts. The result has been 11.1% Barrels/BBE to go with his 11.8 BB%, where hitters can sit on their pitch after he falls behind, though getting deep into counts has also resulted in a 35.3 K% with a 21.9 CStr% (best on the day) and 12.6 SwStr%. Interesting that the barrels account for 37.5% of his hard contact (that’s a lot), where a 3.48 xERA is his only estimator above three (.397 BABIP, 57.3 LOB%). PitchingBot likes the slider enough to give it a 57 grade, but he only throws it 14.3% (2.6 RV/100) and the rest of it is just about average (4.54 Bot ERA, 100 Stuff+ grade). He’s a very difficult pitcher to evaluate.
Opp wRC+: 138 (140 Home, 153 L7days)
DEF: -12
B30: 3.98
Yoshi Yama has the opposite problem. He too often throws every hittable fastballs right over the plate. The rest of the arsenal is strong enough (especially a 61 grade curveball) to make up for that against below average offenses. He’s shut out the Diamondbacks, Nationals, Cubs and Cardinals over 22 innings, while giving up 12 runs to the Mets and Padres (twice) over 12 innings. A 3.31 xERA (10.1% Barrels/BBE, almost exclusively on the fastball) is the estimator furthest removed from his 2.91 ERA, but I’m surprised to see just a 104 Stuff+ grade (106 Pitching+, 3.73 Bot ERA) because the rest of the package is so strong, All that said, this should be another dominant spot for him, although it's interesting to note that the curveball is the only pitch the Marlins have done any damage against (0.44 wCU/C is 10th MLB).
Opp wRC+: 88 (78 Road)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.85
DFS Notes: I think Yamamoto might be the most popular pitcher tonight (or maybe second behind Ober) and if I were paying up, he’d be the guy, but with the lack of infield value tonight, I’m having trouble doing getting there and it’s something I’m perfectly fine with. The Marlins do have a board low 2.62 implied run total. I have no interest in going there. With the Dodgers tied with the Braves (4.88) for the third spot on the board, I’m all for jamming in Ohtani (209 wRC+, .386 ISO v RHP since last year), whom I consider the top bat on the board (no surprise) once again. But Cabrera has a reverse split (.358 wOBA, .309 xwOBA for RHBs since last year), so I like Mookie Betts (167, .238) nearly as much and find him easier to get to with more value at 1B and in the OF. I’m also finding Muncy (143, .285) a top third base bat, while Andy Pages (183, .289) is another bat to look at here. In fact, the Dodgers, along with the Cubs, are my favored stacks among the top four offenses (by run total) on the board tonight.
Update 6:35 EST: No Miami update yet, but if Cabrera starts walking batters and falling behind, the Dodgers should destroy him. Add in the league's worst defense and I like the Dodgers to go over their team total tonight (4.5 -120).
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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