It only occurred to me after shutting down for the night that I forgot to write an open. You know, the least important part of these articles right here. As mentioned below, there are several returning/debuting pitchers today, while the Rays and White Sox still don't have confirmed pitchers on MLB.com. Tonight's DFS slate is only six games, nearly too small, starting a half hour later than usual.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Giants @ Phillies
Mason Black is one of several pitchers making their 2024 debut on Monday, but the only one making his MLB debut. The 24 year-old has a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) with a three pitch mix (fastball/slider/change), all with a potential FV of 50 to 55 each. The same goes for the overall command. However, that’s really more of a five pitch mix and he throws a four-seam, sinker, slider and sweeper. In the most recent FG scouting report, Black was called a potential multi-inning reliever after a velocity drop from his peak. Black struck out 32.7% in 63 AA innings last year with 27.9% in 60 more at AAA, but with control issues at the latter (12 BB%). He’s struck out 29% with an 8% walk rate over 26.2 innings this year, but has not surpassed 20 batters in an outing yet and only once more than 16 over his last four starts. He may be more of a multi-inning opener here. Projection systems are more optimistic than the scouting report would suggest, forecasting an ERA/FIP mix just a bit above four.
Opp wRC+: 110 (109 Home, 127 L7days)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.89
Velocity may be about the only area where Zack Wheeler has lacked consistency from start to start this year. With an arsenal that includes all four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time receiving a 55 or better grade from PitchingBot (three of them > 60) and 110 Pitching+ (100 Stuff+ with the reduced velocity), all he’s done is strike out a career high 30.6% of the batters he’s faced with exactly half his contact on the ground and only 34.6% of it reaching a 95 mph EV (5.8% Barrels/BBE). A long time great contact manager, who has never exceeded a 36.2% hard hit rate, Wheeler has estimators ranging from a 2.37 xERA to a 3.12 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 98 (75 L7days)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.53
This game is currently without a line with the Giants late to list Black on Sunday. Using his projections, I make this about -160 to -165 Phillies with a run total closing in on 7.5, but also think the projections for Black may be a bit optimistic.
Update 1:15 EST: Weather is fine here. Merrifield in for Turner. Bailey & Soler out for SF gives Wheeler just four LHBs to battle with his 80 point split since last year. Crazy stat of the day: after Sunday PHI 109 wRC+ at home, against RHP and over the last seven days.
Tigers @ Guardians
Jack Flaherty has had double digit strikeout efforts in Minnesota and against St Louis in his last three starts with the velocity in the latter his third highest single game average ever and highest since August of 2020. I wonder why. A ridiculous 16.4 SwStr% is now second in the majors among qualified pitchers, helping to produce a 30.6 K-BB% that is BEST with a 3.05 xERA (34.8 Hard%) Flaherty’s only estimator within a run of his 4.00 ERA (.321 BABIP, 66.7 LOB%, five of six barrels for home runs). Considering that, it’s stunning to see him carrying a 97 Stuff+ grade (105 Pitching+) with the slider (58) his only strongly above average pitch according to PitchingBot (3.64 ERA). It may have to do with the soft schedule he’s faced (Rays, Twins, A’s, White Sox other four).
Opp wRC+: 100 (19.1 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 4.07
So now Triston McKenzie is on a three start run against the A’s, Red Sox and Astros posting the following numbers: 16 IP – 66 BF – 5 ER – 2 HR – 6 BB – 19 K. His velocity has ticked up to a season high 91.6 mph last start (90.5 mph first start). That’s still well below the 92+ he’s sat every other season of his career, but he’s generated a 14 SwStr% over this span with just three barrels allowed, going from a negative walk rate over his first three starts to 19.7% over these last three. He’s still throwing his fastball more than half the time, a pitch that merits just a 38 PB grade and one that Detroit has been the third best offense in the league against (0.52 wFA/C). Breaking it down to those last three starts (because I can with just 10 games), McKenzie’s fastball has only boosted to a 42 PB grade and 91 Pitching+ on the pitch (103 Stuff+). He does have a 100 Stuff+ on the season, but 5.84 Bot ERA with none of his pitches even reaching a 40 grade.
Opp wRC+: 90 (85 Road, but 116 L7days)
DEF: 5
B30: 2.89
I’m less confident in McKenzie sustaining his improved results over his last three starts, mainly with a still below average fastball, than I am Flaherty. He may have only dominated weak competition, but it’s far better than not dominating them. With Detroit’s prowess against the fastball added in, I believe that’s the side to be on at a very low price (-105 F5). (Follow RockyJade on ActionNetwork, not necessarily for the plays, but earlier info dumps.)
Update 3:35 EST: Cleveland now a firmly pitcher friendly park (via Statcast) with pitcher friendly weather, but a slightly hitter friendly ump (De Jesus via SwishAnalytics) slightly mitigates that and may even be the reason I'm avoiding a Flaherty K prop of just 5.5 at good odds. Kwan out in favor of Manzardo and Florial in the top spot certainly increases the strikeout rate of this lineup. Gained a healthy 2.91% on DET F5 overnight.
Angels @ Pirates
Tyler Anderson can occasionally be formidable when the changeup is working and he’s even struck out 13 of his last 48 (Phillies), while only being below an 11.8 SwStr% once on the season. The 62 grade changeup (PB) has a 40.6 Whiff% this season, but Anderson has somehow only struck out 18.5% of batters on the season (1.4 K/SwStr). In other words, I think the strikeout spike last two times out may be real, though he does still retain issues with double digit walk and barrel rates. Maybe he drops from an estimator low of 4.75 (xERA) to something around or below four and a half. The 2.23 ERA that’s less than half any of his estimators is the pure product of a .194 BABIP and 90.9 LOB%, surprising considering the lack of defense behind him.
Opp wRC+: 110 (but 25.8 K% & bottom half of MLB against changeups -0.14 wCH/C)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.32
Despite striking out seven in each of his last two starts, Mitch Keller still allowed seven earned runs in 10 IP with just a 7.5 SwStr% and four barrels (14.8%) against the Brewers and A’s. With an average 13.4 K-BB%, but 45.7% hard hit rate, Keller’s 5.18 ERA matches his dERA exactly and is barely above a 5.07 xERA. Contact neutral estimators are about a run lower. Pitch modeling thinks he might be average, but sees nothing to get excited about. He’s sitting on a .333 BABIP, which may be a combination of the hard contact and poor defense behind him.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -8
B30: 4.08
Update 3:25 EST: What to do here. I hate being on the opposite line of large line moves, but considering how poorly I've done despite being on the right side of closing line value, maybe I shouldn't worry about it much. Anderson has a 4.1 point SwStr% edge over Keller, but a 3.3 point K% deficit. I think that closes the gap a bit on their estimators, while defenses and bullpens haven't been much different so far. I'm decided to split exposure here to LAA +136 & LAA o3.5 (+100).
White Sox @ Rays
Neither pitcher has been confirmed for this game at the time of writing, but Mike Clevinger appears very likely to make his season debut here. He has just a 12.2 K-BB% over 145.2 innings since returning from TJS in 2022. He’s gotten just two AAA starts, striking out seven of 33 batters with three walks and a home run. Statcast has him sitting around 92.5 mph in these outings, which is nearly two mph below last year and well below his career average velocity. Projection systems have him a little less than a quarter of a run below five.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.50
Tyler Alexander has just an 18.4 K% (8.5 SwStr%) with a 25.6 GB%. A 5.25 dERA is his only estimator above a 5.02 ERA, but all are within a run. While grading just an 88 Stuff+, that improves to a 105 Pitching+ and PitchingBot grades all of his pitches 53 or better with a 2.86 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 46 (21.1 K-BB%, 5.7 HR/FB)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.66
Update 4 EST: Josh Lowe back for the Rays tonight, but he replaces another LHB in Palacios, so it still only gives the LU a pair of LHBs to attack Clevinger's .322 wOBA/.329 xwOBA against them last year. RHBs 20 to 30 points lower.
Padres @ Cubs
Yu Darvish struck out just three of 18 Reds (8.6 SwStr%) over 70 pitches in his return from the IL. He didn’t allow a barrel, but 40% of his contact reached a 95 mph EV. Darvish may still be slightly limited here and has only gone beyond 21 batters or five innings once in six tries this year. On the season, Darvish has a 3.45 ERA/3.46 FIP with just two home runs allowed. He’s also allowed just four barrels, but a 48.2 Hard%, extrapolating an xERA of 3.82, which is his only other estimator below four with a 12.6 K-BB%. Pitch modeling doesn’t differ much from traditional, contact neutral estimators (4.16 Bot ERA, 98 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 97 (128 Home)
DEF: 2.25
B30: 3.38
Not a season debut for Justin Steele, but pretty damn close, as he hit the IL after throwing just 67 pitches on Opening Day in Texas. He struck out four of 17 batters in a lone rehab start and may have some limitation on him here. Projection systems see him a bit above three and a half after a breakout 2023 season in which he authored a 19.6 K-BB% with a 49.4 GB%, allowing just 5.4% Barrels/BBE. Pitch modeling thinks he was off to another great start with Pitching Bot grading a 69 four-seamer and 78 slider in his first start.
Opp wRC+: 93 (122 Road, 132 L7days)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 4.04
DFS Notes: All six environments outdoors tonight with temps dropping below 70 in just about every spot except St Louis, potentially making that the most positive run environment on the slate. With just the Dodgers above five implied runs (5.48) and then a near full run gap to the Royals (4.56) with no other offense above 4.13, I’ve chosen to pay up for all my pitching needs so far, including a spot where there’s some weather concern. Let’s get to how we can accomplish that.
It’s pitcher friendly Wrigley again, but not dominantly so with temps around 60 and a barely double digit wind blowing in from center. Yet, both teams at 3.5 implied runs keeps them tied for the third worst spot on the board. A potentially limited Steele costing $9K against such a contact prone offense though (8.6 K-BB% v LHP) may not be ideal, while Darvish may be in a slightly more upside spot, but seems to be lacking the strikeout upside himself so far. As silly as it sounds on a six game slate, I have very little to no interest in anything here.
Update 5:10 EST: Machado out.
Mariners @ Twins
It’s four straight quality starts for Luis Castillo with a total of five runs (four earned), while striking out 31 of 96 batters (17.1 SwStr%). Now up to a 20.4 K-BB% with a 34.5 GB%, but 20.4 IFFB%, Castillo generates estimators from a 2.95 SIERA to a 3.19 xERA sitting below his 3.46 ERA and only a 3.69 dERA sitting above. A surprising 99 Stuff+ grade underlies a 107 Pitching+, though PitchingBot sees a 61 grade slider as the star of a 3.27 Bot ERA. The pitch has a 43.8 Whiff% and .211 xwOBA against.
Opp wRC+: 102 (109 Home, 127 L7days)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.8
With a fastball down a mph from his previous two starts, Simeon Woods-Richardson struck out just two of 19 White Sox with a 2.5 SwStr% after punching out six of 23 with a 10.6 SwStr% in his previous start against the same lineup. With his only other start against the Tigers, we may have to temper enthusiasm for non-FIP estimators (no home runs) ranging from a 4.07 SIERA to a 4.81 xERA built upon a 14 K-BB%. Pitch modeling is torn with a 3.54 Bot ERA and 104 Pitching+, but 86 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 95 (29.2 K%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.10
I’m taking SWR’s efforts this season with a large grain of salt, but still see some value on the home dog here with advantages offensively, defensively and especially in the pen. Remember when the Twins were near the top of the league in strikeouts a few weeks ago. They’re down to a 24.6% mark against RHP now with just a 20.7 K% over the last week.
DFS Notes: I paid up for Luis Castillo last week against the Braves and he didn’t let me down, so why wouldn’t I do so again, even against the red hot Twins, who finally lost one this weekend? Castillo is easily my top pitcher on the board. There may be less opportunity in this lineup than we thought a couple of weeks ago, but still certainly enough. It may sound odd after mentioning that I favor Minnesota on the moneyline here, but we’re talking about the only aspect where the Mariners have any edge and everything has a price. SWR is in a high upside spot, but if he couldn’t get it done against the White Sox, I’m a bit concerned and would consider coming in slightly under-weight here. At 4.11 runs, the Mariners are the fourth highest team on the board with the Twins right in the middle (3.89). I love Josh Rojas (211 wRC+ L30 days) as a value play out of the leadoff spot on either site tonight and see Cal Raleigh (115 wRC+, .226 ISO v RHP since LY) and Jorge Polanco (111, .199) as top values at their position also. All three should certainly be included in most Seattle stacks. Considering LHBs do have a .331 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against Castillo since last year, we’d be remiss to not mention the 125+ and > .190 ISO against RHP since last year for Kirilloff, Julien, Kepler and Larnach for contrarian players. Kirilloff is also the only sub-140 wRC+ over the last 30 days of that group.
Update 4:40 EST: Jeffers sitting is the only real lineup news. A 1.88% loss on Twins down to +102.
Brewers @ Royals
Bryse Wilson has published a 1.76 ERA, but 3.93 FIP/4.80 xFIP since being inserted into the rotation (including four more batters in relief) a few weeks ago. This comes with just an 8.3 K-BB% and 7.7 SwStr%, but only one-third of his contact has reached a 95 mph EV and all three barrels came in his second start in Pittsburgh. I’m struggling to see anything better than a below average starting pitcher, despite an overall 3.65 Bot ERA and 100 Pitching+ undermined by a 95 Stuff+ grade. It does include 10 bullpen innings. Wilson also has a substantial platoon split in his now 100 innings over the last two seasons. LHBs are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs below .280, while he’s likely to face a balanced lineup here.
Opp wRC+: 102 (17.9 K%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.90
While Cole Ragans walked three Blue Jays for the second straight start, his velocity perked back up last time out, as he struck out nine of 26 batters after four of 21 in his previous outing against Toronto. Ragans has had a couple of rough ones already, but has still produced a 28.9 K% (14.1 SwStr%) with just 5.1% Barrels/BBE. PitchingBot loves the fastball (68 grade) and estimates a 3.27 Bot ERA overall, but has below average grades for each of the other three pitches he’s thrown more than 10% of the time. Elsewhere, Ragans gets a 113 Stuff+ grade, but a lesser 104 Pitching+ mark. With just one of five barrels leaving the yard (almost all starts in power dampening environments), Ragans has a 3.44 ERA that’s very much in line with non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.15 xFIP to a 3.41 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 85 (13.2 BB%, 120 Road, 113 L7days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 4.22
DFS Notes: This is where we have the weather concern, but it looks like we may get complete efforts from the starting pitchers (six to seven innings) before it really becomes a problem. With that said and the Brewers at 3.94 implied runs, I’m on Cole Ragans here, either as my second favorite pitcher on FD or even fitting him in next to Castillo on DK for just under $9K. No thanks to Wilson here. This is a tough lineup in terms of giving away pitcher upside. They also have the second highest team total on the board today (4.56). For the Brewers, I still like the catchers as a top value play in Sanchez (157 wRC+, .420 ISO v LHP since LY) and Contreras overall (179, .254), despite RHBs below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against Ragans since last year. Just beware that Sanchez has been dealing with a hammy issue the last few days. We’re not considering for his base running prowess anyway. My two favorite Kansas City bats are Michael Massey (83, .177) within $300 of $3K on both sites and Vinnie Pasquantino (111, .213) on FD especially for less than $3K. That said, I’m only really looking to avoid the very bottom of this lineup, though I think Garcia may be a bit overpriced (77, .080). RHBs are below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against Wilson since last year too, though LHBs are above .345.
Update 4:15 EST: Weather bumps this game up a half hour, making it a bit safer for starting pitchers. I figured the Royals would add another LHB in Frazier with Wilson's platoon split and they have in Velazquez's place. With a 90 wRC+ and .139 ISO against RHP since last year, the only good thing about Frazier is his cost ($2.5K or less), which does make him viable on this slate. Sanchez is in the lineup, but batting sixth with Ortiz up to second. He does have a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but a 43 career wRC+ against LHP.
Mets @ Cardinals
It’s starting to become apparent that Sean Manaea isn’t what the Mets hoped he would be after a strong spring and first couple of starts, where he struck out 14 with just four walks. He’s since struck out just 16 of 87 batters with 14 walks Only great contact management without a barrel and 32% hard hit rate has saved him from the four batters he’s walked in each of his last two starts. Manaea does have a 12.2 SwStr%, pitch modeling does not like what he’s throwing (86 Stuff+) or how he’s throwing it (96 Pitching+, 4.75 Bot ERA). In fact, PitchingBot gives just one of his pitches (59 sinker) a grade above 41, but thankfully it’s the pitch he throws more than any other (32%). With just one of six barrels leaving the yard, Manaea’s non-FIP estimators range from 4.69 SIERA to a 4.92 dERA, well above his 3.07 actual ERA and 3.59 FIP. His velocity has been dropping since the start of the season too.
Opp wRC+: 71 (7.8 K-BB%, but 5.2 HR/FB)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.17
And if you thought the above paragraph was bad, here comes Kyle Gibson. He did strike out nine of 27 Tigers last time out and has gone at least six innings in every start, but with a 3.79 ERA that’s at least one-third of a run below all of his estimators. Adding 11.1% Barrels/BBE to his 9.9 K-BB% produces a 5.55 xERA. With just a 92 Stuff+ grade (94 Pitching+), PitchingBot grades four pitches Gibson throws more than 12% the time below 40 with only his sweeper (51) above that mark.
Opp wRC+: 102 (20.7 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.28
Considering everything else being about equal, the offensive edge for the Mets should make them a bit better than +110 in this spot.
DFS Notes: As mentioned above, potentially the top run environment on the slate with the best weather, we find the Mets in the middle of the board (3.87), but the struggling Cardinals third best at 4.13. This is the first spot where we may have some bullpen issues. Adam Ottavino is the only top Mets arm who didn’t throw at least 15 pitches yesterday (Diaz 19), but that’s because he threw 35 the day before. It’s not overload, but Mendoza has been cautious in usage so far. Gibson is cheap enough for a hail mary SP2 on DK should you have no other choice, but my interest in pitching here is very limited at best. As usual, Nimmo (138 wRC+, .214 ISO v RHP since LY) is my favorite Met on either site with LHBs within four points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Gibson since last year. And for all the talk of Lindor’s struggles, he’s up to a 124 wRC+ over the last 30 days and is a decent plug in at the toughest position tonight (SS). Dylan Carlso (113, .123) is your plug and play in this lineup, costing $2.5K or less and projected to bat fifth. RHBs have a .323 wOBA, but .342 xwOBA against Manaea since last year. Willson Contreras (159, .264) is your top bat here. Yes, catcher is strong tonight. The next highest wRC+ against LHP since LY in the projected lineup belongs to Nolan Arenado (.154) and his 72 wRC+ against southpaws over that span. He is up to a 134 wRC+ overall for the last 30 days though.
Update 5 EST: A 0.89% loss on the Mets with Alonso out of the lineup. I realize the attraction of adding LHBs against Gibson, but Mendoza seems to love him some Joey Wendle (45 wRC+, .089 ISO v RHP since LY) far...FAR too much. D.J. Stewart (148, .290) now a great value play out of the cleanup spot. We should now also infer that Tomas Nido is the #1 catcher for the Mets with Narvaez providing next to zero value offensively and even less than that defensively. Donovan drops in the order for Fermin in the top spot, instantly creating another strong value play at $2.1K and a great punt at a tough SS position tonight on FD.
Rangers @ Athletics
Andrew Heaney is coming off his best start of the season, striking out just four of 23 Nationals, but going seven innings with a single run without a walk or barrel. That pushes him up to a respectable 13.6 K-BB%, but that’s never been his problem. In fact, it’s his lowest mark since 2015 (17.8% career). It’s the 9.2% Barrels/BBE and 46% hard hit rate that remains the issue. The odd thing is that a 4.12 xERA is his best estimator, while a 4.78 xFIP is his worst and still one-third of a run below his actual ERA because he has a .232 BABIP, but just a 58.6 LOB%. While pitch modeling doesn’t like the arsenal (83 Stuff+), they do think he’s making the best of it (99 Pitching+, 3.51 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 103 (16.5 HR/FB)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.69
Believe it or not, the Yankees are the only team Alex Wood has exceeded five innings against and for good reason. There’s nothing positive to be found with the exception that his estimators aren’t actually as bad as his horrendous 6.32 ERA. They are pretty rough though, with just an 8.9 K-BB% and 48% hard hit rate. In fact, the 6.31 dERA almost exactly matches actual results, but the 6.07 xERA is the only other one above six, while reaching only as low as a 4.79 SIERA. Wood has just a 74 Stuff+ grade (94 Pitching+) without a single pitch above a 47 grade from PitchingBot.
Opp wRC+: 92 (19 K-BB%)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.10
The Rangers have substantial edges in starting pitcher & defense, but the A’s have had the bullpen and offense against LHP. The latter may not stay that way, but it’s at least competitive, while Oakland has is tied with the Twins for the second best pen estimators in baseball over the last 30 days. Given the fact that they’re home as well, I like the price they’re getting here (+120).
DFS Notes: The Rangers get to four runs here (4.07) with the A’s near the bottom (3.43). The park, the price, maybe you throw up a wish and prayer with Heaney, but the A’s have should significant power against LHP this year. Beware. Tyler Nevin (159 wRC+, .254 ISO v LHP since LY) and Abraham Toro (178, .186) are my value bats here. Brent Rooker (223 wRC+ L30 days) is a reasonable add in this spot too. I think Texas bats may be over-priced here, but would certainly have some exposure in multi. RHBs above a 110 wRC+ and 160 ISO against LHP since last year in this lineup include Adolis Garcia and nobody else. Corey Seager barely gets there from the left-hand side. Kirby Yates threw 27 pitches on Sunday. Mason Miller has not pitched in five days after back to backers totaling 26 pitches.
Update 6:25 EST: No Texas LU yet, but they're generally pretty static. Bleday only LHB for OAK. Heaney has a reverse split, but RHBs still > .320 wOBA/xwOBA since LY. Pitcher friendly park with pitcher friendly weather and pitcher friendly umpire does make taking a risk with Heaney sound a bit more attractive if you're thinking of paying down for your SP2.
Marlins @ Dodgers
Roddery Munoz has struck out seven in each of his two starts (Cubs & Rockies) with an 11.9 SwStr%, but has also allowed four barrels, though just five other hard hit balls. Unfortunately, outside from a sinker he’s thrown 39 times (56 PB grade), pitch modeling does not like what they’re seeing. Munoz has just a 92 Stuff+ grade (96 Pitching+) and 5.55 Bot ERA without another single pitch (he’s thrown five at least 15 times) reaching even a 35 PB grade. Munoz just turned 24 last month and while he has just a 40+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) both his fastball and slider have 60+ FV potential. It’s the lack of a third pitch and faulty command (40 FV) that might do him in. Munoz has pitched for three different NL East organizations at AAA since the start of last season, failing to post a walk rate below 14.9% at any stop. Despite the success of his initial outings, projection systems still see him about a quarter of a run below five (ERA & FIP).
Opp wRC+: 136 (11 K-BB%, 137 Home, 151 L7days) (Includes Sunday)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.98
After struggling (for him) through 12 starts in 2022 (15 K-BB%), Walker Buehler had Tommy John Surgery. Tonight will be the first time he’s taken a major league mound since June 10th of that year. That’s nearly two full years. Projection systems see him potentially worse than he’s ever been with an ERA/FIP combination a bit above four or basically a league average pitcher. With all but 10 of the 98 batters he’s faced in the minors last season at AAA, he’s struck out just 21 of them with nine walks and a 12.6 SwStr% over the 88 AAA batters. This is not at all very impressive, though after facing 21 batters in each of his last two starts, we shouldn’t expect any major restrictions and he gets a terrible offense that just traded their best hitter.
Opp wRC+: 87 (79 Road)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.85
DFS Notes: I’m not playing Munoz against the Dodgers here, but could see where some might be tempted on this slate. It’s still far too risky for my tastes today. In fact, including several value bats gets me to a partial Dodger stack, even with expensive pitching. I’m fine with Buehler in a great spot here, but he’s $1K less on FD and I’m not personally going there (I don’t think). The Marlins are low team on the board by nearly half a run at 3.02 implied runs. They’re awful, but I might consider Sanchez (111 wRC+, .190 ISO v RHP since LY) or De La Cruz (131 wRC+ L30 days) as value plays or punts here. He, Chisholm and Brujan are the only three in the projected Miami lineup to exceed an 80 wRC+ over that span. Munoz does have a massive standard split in his small sample of work (LHBs .340 wOBA, .390 xwOBA, RHBs < .275). Ohtani (206 wRC+, .382 ISO v RHP since LY) is the top bat and even a strong potential value tonight. I really like Freeman (163, .216) and Muncy (144, .287) here also, especially for far cheaper on FD. James Outman (117, .218) projects value here too. Mookie (167, .239) even with the splits, of course. Lux (52, .029) is the only player in the projected lineup below either a 100 wRC+ or .160 ISO against RHP since last year.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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