It started out on fire and at one point, I thought I might be playing every game on the board until it got ice cold when I got to the DFS slate of game until nearly the end. A bit of housekeeping that I probably won't be back until Monday after today. It surprised me too to find out I had a life outside of this project.
Speaking of, I said it yesterday, but with more traffic likely on a bigger slate, I want to extend my appreciation again to everyone who has read, verbally encouraged and especially financially contributed to help getting this little experiment off the ground in it's first month.
All stats through Wednesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, donations are welcome (mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal), so that I can continue doing this and make the site more pleasant to look at.
Brewers @ Cubs
You may not be able to tell it by the 5.40 ERA, but Joe Ross has been a nearly respectable back end arm for the Brewers. While the 9.2 K-BB% is nothing to write home about, a favorable contact profile has put his xERA at 3.51, about a run below contact neutral estimators. If we lean a bit more towards the neutral ones, we still come up with a near league average pitcher. Pitch modeling doesn’t think so (89 Stuff+) with just one above average pitch, a changeup he’s thrown just 26 times (57 grade via PB). Odd that he’s still sinker/four-seam/slider over 90% of the time, but doesn’t have the standard sizeable split that would suggest yet.
Opp wRC+: 93 (128 Home, 62 L7days)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.95
After facing 20 batters over a pair of relief appearances, Hayden Wesneneski struck out just three of 19 Red Sox in his first start. However, he’s walked just one batter so far, allowing the same amount of barrels and only six hard hit batted balls. Keeping in mind that he hasn’t thrown any pitch more than 52 times, PitchingBot grades all of his offerings above 60 in this small sample, but he’s also carrying just an 89 Stuff+ grade. Wesneski’s projections average somewhere around 4.20, which probably pictures him in the swingman role he served last year, pitching many of his innings out of the bullpen.
Opp wRC+: 124 (123 Road, 121 L7days)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.28
Even considering Wesneski’s overall projections at face value, though they should probably be lessened in a starting role, I’m still finding the Brewers undervalued here. They’ve had the better offense, defense and bullpen without much discrepancy in the starting pitching. I have the Brewers (+110) as short favorites here. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network, not necessarily for plays, but quicker info dumps.)
Update 1:10 EST: Moderate pitching weather (10 mph wind in from LC, around 60 degrees). Hector Neris 21 pitches L2 days, but also 54 w/ 3 of L4 pitched. Chourio & Ortiz out for MIL in favor of a pair of LHBs (Bauers, Dunn). Very modest 1.4% gain on Brew Crew overnight.
Orioles @ Reds
Last year, Cole Irvin allowed just 11 home runs on 26 barrels. This year, it’s two on nine. That’s it. The 6.7 HR/FB is why his ERA is more than a half run below all estimators with just a 15.5 K% and 5.7 SwStr%. If you need any more confirmation that he’s not all that, check out the 84 Stuff+ grade. Or how about his insistence on throwing a below average grading sinker and four-seamer a combined 46.3% of the time. Here. Try to hit it out. Cincinnati is the exact opposite of Baltimore with a home run factor 41 points higher for RHBs (77 to 118).
Opp wRC+: 96 (15 HR/FB Home)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.26
Hunter Greene’s 29.2 K% is the lowest mark of his three years in the majors, but his highest is just 30.9%. More importantly, I think he’s beginning to grow into his talent. The 8.3% walk rate is not great, but it’s his best yet, while he’s so far cut his barrel rate in half (4.7%) and dropped 10 points off his hard hit rate (32.9%). Not that this is automatically sustainable, but it’s certainly a start. He’s still four-seam slider over 90% of the time, so why does he actually have a small reverse split since last year? Maybe it’s the 133 Stuff+ grade. When he’s using his arsenal optimally (106 Pitching+) it doesn’t matter what side you bat from I guess.
Opp wRC+: 109 (119 Road)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 4.10
Hopefully, you already see my angle here in posting the Irvin home/road stuff and reporting Cincinnati’s home run prowess at home. I think this the work case park shift for him and the difference in talent between the two starting pitchers is enough to favor the Reds at home (-104 F5) without any other tactical advantages.
Update 3:15 EST: Some early rain potential. Massive 7.35% move towards the Reds F5 (-104 to -140). It's all up to Hunter Greene.
Rockies @ Pirates
A 4.12 xERA (7.3% Barrels/BBE, 36.4 Hard%) is a full run below Cal Quantrill’s 5.34 ERA or any other estimator with six of his eight barrels turning into home runs. With just a 2.1 K-BB%, he’d have to be the best contact manager in the world to be considered anywhere near around as average as xERA suggests. With his 95 Stuff+ grade, I believe estimators matching his ERA a bit above five are better indicators.
Opp wRC+: 77 (83 Home, 63 L7days)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.49
Similar to Cole Irvin, Martin Perez is a lefty pitching in a park that kills right-handed power now. Just one of his six barrels has left the yard, which explains how he’s turned a 9.4 K-BB% and 47.2% hard hit rate into a 2.86 ERA and 3.25 FIP with every other estimator well above four and a 73 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 75 (82 Road, 77 L7days)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.81
I’m perfectly willing to conceeded that Martin Perez is the better pitcher and this is a great park for him, but he’s still not good and neither has a disappointing Pittsburgh offense been. In fact, they’ve been just as bad as the Rockies. With Colorado’s defensive edge, I’m willing to accept a bullpen deficit for a larger price (+160).
Update 3:35 EST: No lineup surprises. Could have some weather interrupt the proceedings though.
Giants @ Phillies
Aaron Hicks struck out nine of 22 Pirates without a walk in his last outing, setting a season high with one-third of his season total. For those who didn’t think he had enough in the tank to successfully transition to a starting role, how does a 13.1 K-BB%, 58.6 GB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE and 119 Stuff+ grade sound? His absolute worst estimator is a 3.72 xFIP. Hicks went 42% splitter against the Pirates (22.3% season). He may want to go back to being more sinker heavy against the Phillies. PitchingBot slaps a 58 grade on that pitch and the Phillies are a bottom half offense (-0.48 wSI/C) against such pitches.
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 9
B30: 4.05
Over his first three starts, Aaron Nola struck out just 10 of 69 batters without exceeding an 8.4 SwStr% in any of those efforts. Over the last three, he’s struck out 26 of 88 without going below 9.4%. Of course, the Braves were in that first group, while the White Sox and Rockies were in the second. The Giants are somewhere in the middle, so maybe we should pay attention to non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.53 xFIP to a 3.93 dERA. Nola, too, has a well graded sinker (68), facing a team that struggles against them (0.96 wSI/C is fifth worst), but just a 100 Stuff+ grade overall
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 3
B30: 3.52
This Philadelphia team has been on fire and even has an above average defense, but the Giants (+130 F5) have a better one and possibly a comparable pitcher with better estimators.
Update 3:45 EST: Temp below 60, small loss on SFG F5 (-1.46%).
Blue Jays @ Nationals
Yusei Kikuchi has struck out fewer than five in three of his starts (Rays, Royals, Dodgers), but more than six in each of his other three (Yankees 2x, Mariners). He’s ridden a 66 grade heater (PB) and 60 grade curveball, resulting in 110 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ grades, to a 20.6 K-BB% and 5.4% Barrels/BBE. There’s nearly a half run gap between his 3.64 dERA and his second worst estimator, a 3.19 SIERA. He may benefit from the Nationals being a bottom third offense against four-seamers (-0.3 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 82 (82 Home too)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.53
Patrick Corbin is as bad as ever (14.9 K%, 92.6 Z-Contact%, 43.1 Z-O-Swing%, 49.6 Hard%, 80 Stuff+, 4.70 SIERA, 6.60 xERA).
Opp wRC+: 105 (8 K-BB%)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.67
Blue Jays have every F5 edge and should probably be close to, if not more than, two to one here, but are just -168.
Update 3:50 EST: No lineups or umpire yet, but guess what the F5 line is up to...-200 (3.98% gain).
Mets @ Rays
Jose Quintana broke a streak of five straight starts with four strikeouts to start the season when he punched out just three of 29 Cardinals over a season high eight innings last time out. Allowing just 6.6% Barrels/BBE, he has very little room for error with a 5.6 K-BB% and 81 Stuff+ grade. A 4.27 FIP is his only estimator within a run of his 3.48 ERA (8.8 HR/FB, 78.4 LOB%, .262 BABIP).
Opp wRC+: 86 (27.7 K%)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.05
It was going fairly well for Aaron Civale until running into a wall last two times out (9 IP – 49 BF – 11 ER – 1 HR – 5 BB – 8 K). Making it even worse is that the most recent failure came against the White Sox. Season numbers still include an 18.1 K-BB% with a 29.2 Z-O-Swing and just 6.3% Barrels/BBE, but also a mere 9.8 SwStr%. Pitch modeling sees him as a very average pitcher with Stuff+ and PitchingBot in agreement, so perhaps that’s just what he is in the end, even if there are ups and downs to get there.
Opp wRC+: 102 (20.4 K%)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.82
Tigers @ Yankees
Sixteen of Reese Olson’s 26 strikeouts have come in just two of his five starts (eight each in his only two home starts against the Rangers and Royals). In three road starts, he’s walked seven, striking out a total of 10. Too small a sample to be of any importance, Olson does have a 4.28 Road FIP since last season that’s a bit above all non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.69 xERA to a 4.21 xFIP overall this year. We say non-FIP because he hasn’t allowed a home run yet (six barrels). Pitch modeling is a bit less favorable than that (94 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+, 4.68 Bot ERA). This is a tough spot for him.
Opp wRC+: 121 (9.1 K-BB%, 15.3 HR/FB)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.94
With a 23.2 K% and 58 GB% with just 34.8% hard contact, but a 10.9 BB% and 92.4 Z-Contact%, Marcus Stroman may have non-FIP estimators maxing out at a 4.07 xERA because five of his six barrels have left the park. However, pitch modeling still absolutely abhors him (93 Stuff+, 92 Pitching+, 5.66 Bot ERA). His highest PitchingBot grade goes to his cutter at 37 on the 20-80 scale.
Opp wRC+: 92 (115 L7days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.96
DFS Notes: A nine game slate with just two protected environments with Arizona’s website already stating an open roof tonight, conditions are almost universally around 60 degrees with a near double digit wind in most spots, though the direction of that wind differs by park. Ten of 18 teams are within a four to four and a half run range with the Braves, Dodgers and Cardinals about a quarter run below and Marlins, Tigers, Angels and White Sox more than half a run below. Seems like some pretty straightforward stuff. Let’s see how it breaks down.
Rare to see the Yankees at just 4.17 runs at home (Detroit is the third lowest team on the board at 3.33 implied runs), but temps around 60 with a near 10 mph in from right. Reese Olson has also been a pretty decent pitcher. I don’t like the matchup, but he’s still probably a bit too cheap in the $7-8K range. Not currently part of my single entry, I don’t hate him as a contrarian SP2. Juan Soto (173 wRC+, .274 ISO v RHP since LY) is the only bat I’m reaching for. Even with the wind blowing in, there’s a 45 point increase in home run factor for LHBs between parks and that’s likely why LHBs have a .287 wOBA, but .361 xwOBA against Olson since last year. A polite no thank you to an overpriced Stroman though I don’t have much interest in Tiger bats either, though Riley Greene and Wenceel Perez each exceed a 170 wRC+ over the last month.
Update 4:10 EST: Verdugo (164 wRC+ L30 days) bats cleanup.
Angels@ Guardians
Since strikeout out six Rays without a walk in his first start of the season Jose Soriano has walked 11 of his last 57 batters. It was still somewhat okay when he was striking out 13 of 45 batters, but he only punched out one of 12 Twins last time out. A 108 Stuff+ grade with a curveball (61 PB grade) generating a 31.9 Whiff% shows what he may be capable of, especially with 55.9% of his contact on the ground. Yet, still allowing 13.6% Barrels/BBE with a 14 BB% suggests a mere 23 K% might not be worth the trouble. However, he does get a Cleveland bunch that is bottom third of the league against curveballs (-0.19 wCU/C).
Opp wRC+: 103 (19.4 K%)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 4.44
Tanner Bibee has punched out 17 of his last 47 batters in Oakland, but also against the Braves to nearly double his strikeout total from his first four starts to 35. It doesn’t even really do justice to a 17.3 K-BB% when five of his 12 walks were also in his first start. A 4.69 dERA and 4.53 xERA are seeing something other estimators that are within half a run of his 3.45 ERA are not and that’s probably the nine barrels (9.6%) that he’s allowed. It’s interesting to see that his fastball (42.5%, -3.4 RV/100, 46 PB grade) has been his most troubling pitch, so while he only slightly dialed down it’s usage to around 40% last two starts, he’s laying it on thick with the slider at 33% and 39.6% in these last two starts, bringing it up to 29.3% with a 60 PB grade on the season.
Opp wRC+: 98 (25 K%, but worse than that without Trout)
DEF: 3
B30: 2.90
DFS Notes: I can’t be entirely sure about this, but seem to remember Cleveland being one of the more hitter friendly parks in the league a few years ago. Not anymore, as Statcast three year numbers give it a 92 run factor. Add in temps in the lower 60s and this may be the most negative run environment on the board tonight. Without Trout, Bibee is one of my favorite pitchers on the board, especially for $900 less on DraftKings. I currently have a slightly cheaper SP1, who is probably a bit riskier though. I made a mistake before. The Angels are second from the bottom at 3.22 implied runs, the Guardians in the middle at 4.28. Not because Soriano busted last time out, but because the Guardians offer very little strikeout upside and can take a walk (8.4% v RHP), I’m somewhat out of everything here, although would have some Cleveland full stack exposures in case Soriano implodes again. Jo Adell (154 wRC+ L30 days) costs less than $3K, but is not really the type of pitcher I want to target against Bibee’s slider, despite RHBs being about average against him since last year.
Rangers @ Royals
Michael Lorenzen has struck out 14 of 69 batters, walking nine with two barrels and home runs. All estimators are above his 4.24 ERA, while pitch modeling believes him to be a below average pitcher (4.71 Bot ERA, 95 Stuff+). A slight reverse split, RHBs are above a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against Lorenzen since last year.
Opp wRC+: 99 (18.4 K%) (Includes Thursday stats from here on out – except for MIA/OAK)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.57
Brady Singer has allowed more than a single run in just one of five starts. Not only has his velocity bumped back up last two starts, but there’s something interesting going on here. Normally a sinker/slider guy (93.1% of pitches last year), he’s bumped up his four-seam usage to 14.4% this year. That in itself is not a big deal. It gets just a 30 PitchingBot grade, while he had an 80 Stuff+ grade on the entire arsenal, but it’s what he’s doing with the sinker that’s caught the attention of some. He’s still throwing a lot of them to that low glove sider corner, but he’s also now elevating a bunch of them on the inside part of the plate to RHBs. This now means batters can’t just sit on the same spot whether it be sinker or slider. It’s led to a few more walks (9.4%), but also a career high 24.5 K% and 10.9 SwStr%, generating a career high 57.3% ground ball rate too. That said, estimators ranging from a 3.48 xFIP to a 4.33 xERA are still above his 2.62 ERA. The .209 BABIP and 86 LOB% will heavily regress, but at least he’s trying to combat the predictable rut he’d fallen into.
Opp wRC+: 108 (18.8 K%)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.26
DFS Notes: This is an interesting spot with temps around 70 and wind potentially near 10 mph in from somewhere around the right field corner. Despite the large blurb above, I’m still hesitant to trust Singer for $9K in a very tough spot and would roster Texas bats with a slightly decreased expectation. They do still have a .334 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against Singer since last year, while Evan Carter owns a 170 wRC+ and .319 ISO against RHP in his short career. Corey Seager (166, .280 v RHP since LY) has just a 63 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but nobody else comes close to he and Witt (121, .218) at the SS position tonight and the latter costs at least $500 more. Both teams are at a healthy 4.5 runs on this board and I also particularly like Sal Perez here (187 wRC+ L30 days), as well as a full on KC stack, but opted for a different expensive catcher in my single entry attempt. David Robertson threw 24 pitches yesterday.
Update 4:40 EST: No Texas LU yet, but Miller behind home plate about as pitcher friendly as an umpire gets.
Mariners @ Astros
A velocity spike last time out, his fastball sitting at a season high 96.4 mph, George Kirby proceeded to strikeout 12 of the 24 Mariners he faced. Since walking two of the first three batters he’s faced this season, Kirby has since walked just two more, presently authoring a 25.4 K-BB% that’s not only five points higher than either of his first two seasons, but also sixth best among qualified pitchers. His 101 Stuff+ grade merges into a 109 Pitching+ with PitchingBot grading every one of his pitches 55 or better.
Opp wRC+: 114 (17 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.67
Ronel Blanco struck out a season high eight of 26 Rockies last time out and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start this season, but has just a league average 12.5 K-BB%, including his no-hitter. The upside here is that he’s been dominant at the point of contact (25.3% hard hit rate), but we can’t yet consider that sustainable with a .173 BABIP and 88.7 LOB%. Even the 2.32 xERA is well above his 1.65 ERA with a 3.47 FIP his next lowest estimator by half a run. Pitch modeling is certainly not a fan (94 Stuff+ & Pitching+) without a single pitch exceeding a 47 grade from PitchingBot.
Opp wRC+: 96 (29.6 K%)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.85
DFS Notes: Likely the only true protected environment on the slate with the Astros very rarely opening the roof, creating a perfectly neutral run environment, but a power friendly one. What to do here with both teams at 4.25 implied runs. I’m slightly hesitant of Kirby’s fly ball lean with this park downgrade (33 GB%), but he’s just $7.8K on DraftKings, where I’m at a loss trying to estimate whether that will lure players to him or not. Outside of Luperfido, the projected lineup only includes two batters outside the teens in strikeout rate against RHP since last year with Singleton’s 22.2% being the highest. Altuve (173 wRC+, .234 ISO v RHP since LY), Alvarez (163, .297) and Tucker (135, .214) are your high priced bats of interest here, likely at reduced ownership considering the matchup. While I think Blanco is generally over-valued and still is on FD ($10.8K), there are certainly enough strikeouts here for $8.2K on DK. That said, only Haniger and Moore are outside (below) a 101 to 120 wRC+ range against RHP since last year among those projected and I still love the highest wRC+ in this lineup over the last 30 days (171) as a top value play out of the leadoff spot at 3B (Josh Rojas). A .292 to .329 wOBA and xwOBA range for both L & RHBs against Blanco since last year.
Update 4:45 EST: Roof closed, as expected.
Red Sox @ Twins
Tanner Houck has reduced his career .316 wOBA against LHBs to .228 this year and the reason for this may be two-fold. First, his command has improved with several starts where he’s been able to consistently place pitches exactly where he wants them for optimal outcomes (108 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+). Secondly, he’s increased his splitter usage from 11.4% to 21.1%, almost exclusively against LHBs. He’s only had two outings with fewer than seven strikeouts this season and they were both the second of back to back starts against the same team (Guardians & Angels).
Opp wRC+: 104 (162 L7days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.72
Chris Paddack’s only quality start and anywhere near efficient outing of the season came against the White Sox, whom he shut out for seven innings with 10 of his 21 strikeouts on the season. It should be noted that his poor ones came against the Brewers, Dodgers, Orioles and Angels, mostly good to great offenses. The four-seamer and changeup are still the only pitches he throws more than 14% of the time, but both have PitchingBot grades above 60 with the usage (104 Pitching+) improving upon the arsenal (95 Stuff+). He’s only struck out 17.4% of batters though (92.9 Z-Contact%), while allowing 9.7% Barrels/BBE, resulting in a 5.52 xERA that’s his worst estimator, but not too far below his 5.88 ERA even if the .375 BABIP is due for regression. Perhaps not against another red hot offense though.
Opp wRC+: 107 (136 L7days)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.18
DFS Notes: This is my favorite highly volatile spot on the board. Both offenses come into this one red hot, but with temps in the 60s and a near 10 mph wind blowing towards the left field foul pole, both teams are at exactly four implied runs and I’m targeting a pitcher here. Tanner Houck is $8.1K on DK in a high strikeout spot against a dangerous lineup (though I reserve the right to reconsider). Only two projected are below a 115 wRC+ L30 days. Also only two below a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year and everyone with at least a .160 ISO in that situation. Still, this is a different pitcher against LHBs this year and I’m hoping the heat (MIN offensive prowess) might keep other players away and am willing to accept some more volatility in those hopes. That said, the Twins do have some affordable, potent LHBs in the top half of the lineup against RHP that may be of interest if either not rostering Houck or wanting to hedge in multi. Paddack is cheap and maybe worth some exposure in your SP2 spot, but he’s not in mine in single entry with more risk than Hock (I believe) and the Devers, Wong, O’Neil, Abreu and Duran all above a 100 wRC+ and .185 ISO against RHP since last year. A sub-$4K Wilyer Abreu (162, .205) makes my initial single entry.
White Sox @ Cardinals
Brad Keller has a career 6.8 K-BB% and exactly the inverse of that over 47 innings since the start of last season. I don’t know why the White Sox think three starts (16 IP) of an 11.8 K-BB% at AAA this season might change any of that. He has projections around a five ERA & FIP. Batters from either side are within a .350 to .365 wOBA and xwOBA against him over those 47 innings.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: -4
B30: 4.74
The Mets popped Sonny Gray for four of his six runs this season in the fifth inning last time out, including a Pete Alonso opposite field shot, though three were unearned. He still struck out nine and now 32 of 89 faced this year with just four walks. His 31.5 K-BB% is nearly 12 points above his career best mark of 19.6% in the shortened 2020 season. That shot by Alonso was his only home run and just the second barrel he’s allowed in four starts. PitchingBot gives the heater a 74 grade, while the White Sox are the worst offense in the majors against four-seamers (-1.56 wFA/C) by a pretty large margin (0.23).
Opp wRC+: 79 (73 Road)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.29
DFS Notes: Temps in the 70s with light wind in from center. St Louis has increased to a 102 run factor over the last three rolling years (Statcast). That (and Brad Keller) makes this the top offensive spot on the board (Cardinals 4.83). Sonny Gray is the top pitcher in a great spot, but I have so far chosen to pay down to Houck (and would consider Bibee too) as acceptable pivots here. It all depends on where you want to go with bats and I’m not finding a lot of great values in the middle of the board. It’s generally high priced guys with a couple of great, low priced values pushing me towards the pitching decisions I’m likely to make (especially on DraftKings). Brendan Donovan (120 wRC+, .163 ISO v RHP since LY) is one of those reasonably priced bats I currently have rostered, while WIllson Contreras (126, .199) is one of the higher priced ones. He (152), along with a cheap Burleson (132) and Wynn (129) have been the three hottest bats in the projected St Louis lineup over the last month.
Update 5:10 EST: Some reshuffling of the St Louis lineup.
Padres @ Diamondbacks
Dylan Cease is still the walk (10.1%) prone, high upside (28.8 K%) pitcher we’re accustomed to, but has also already allowed 11 barrels this year (12.9%). He’s allowed at least two in five straight, including a season high three surrendered to the Phillies, while sitting at his lowest average velocity of the season last time out. With just two of those barrels leaving the park, Cease has a 2.78 ERA matching 2.80 FIP with additional estimators ranging from a 3.46 xERA to a 4.39 dERA. Perhaps necessary to note that the Diamondbacks are a bottom half team against sliders (-0.48 wSL/C). Cease has a 55 grade slider (PB) and 121 Stuff+, but 104 Pitching+ overall.
Opp wRC+: 87 (but 9.6 K-BB%)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.45
Slade Cecchoni has struck out 11 of 43 Mariners and Giants faced with a single walk and barrel (home run). Turning 25 in just a couple of months, the 45 Future Value (Fangraphs) pitcher doesn’t find a below average or above 60 grade on any of his offerings or command in scouting reports, which suggest he’s a viable back-end option for the Arizona rotation. Should he retain the 71 grade heater (PB) along with the 61 grade curve and change from his first two starts, he may be better than that.
Opp wRC+: 118 (19.9 K%)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 4.56
DFS Notes: The open roof increases the run environment around six percent on average, but only from slightly below average to just above (96 to 102), according to Statcast 3yr rolling park factors. That still may be enough to make this the top run environment on this tough board. A 4.5 run total for both teams put them near the top of the board (tied with the Rangers and Royals). George Kirby proved you can punch out double digit Diamondbacks on any given day, but I just don’t know if Cease does it often enough here to be worth the $9.3K DK risk, let alone $11K on FD. Some exposure, but underweight in multi-entry would be my plan. Six in the normal ARI LU below 20% strikeouts against RHP since last year. LHBs do have a .335 wOBA and .319 xwOBA against Cease since last year, so lean that way for your Arizona exposure, especially Marte and Pederson (both > 140 wRC+ L30 days), which his cheaper on FD. Cecchoni costs just $6.6K on DK ($10.1 freeking K on FD). The Padres have traded power for contact with seven projected below a 21.1 K% against RHP since last season. If leaning that way (and I’m not), this is a lineup more likely to pay off in a stack than individual picking and choosing.
Marlins @Athletics
Ryan Weathers struck out 10 Giants, walking just one a few starts back. He’s struck out 16 with 14 walks over his other five starts. The velocity spike that excited some in March and part of April nearly gone, the 7.9 K-BB% isn’t exciting anybody. Every single estimator is above his 4.55 ERA, while RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against Weathers since last year.
Opp wRC+: 88 (25.2 K%, but 15.1 HR/FB)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 4.08
J.P. Sears struck out eight Orioles last time out to give him 15 of 49 in his last two starts in New York (AL) and Baltimore, but the Orioles also tattooed him for seven runs including three home runs on SIX BARRELS! Despite the 17.6 K% and 45.9% hard hit rate, there may be a better pitcher in there, as an 11.0 SwStr% and 105 Stuff+ (101 Pitching+) grade suggests. That includes a sweeper (30.6%) with a 1.6 RV/100 that PitchingBot gives an elite 68 grade to. Can you guess who the worst offense in the league against sliders is by a wide margin? Why, yes, it is the Marlins (-2.1 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 63 (67)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.29
Sears actually has the slightly higher ERA (4.64 to 4.55), but he’s the one showing some sign of life this year. The A’s are bad against LHP and still 25 points better than the Marlins. They also have the better bad defense and a far better and more rested bullpen. I’m surprised to see them at just -130.
DFS Notes: With the Marlins near the bottom at 3.48 implied runs (A’s 4.02), Sears is my preferred SP2 on DraftKings at $6.1K and I don’t expect that to shock anyone. I like him more than Weathers for $100 less for reasons stated above, but would have some exposure to both in multi. It probably goes without saying that I have no interest in Miami bats (though Dane Meyers is near the min.) and limited interest in Oakland, though I consider Tyler Nevin (165 wRC+, .268 ISO v LHP since LY) a top value for $2.6K on either site. He almost seems a must roster if playing Sonny Gray. Tanner Scott was one of the few Miami relievers with Thursday off after pitching three straight days. Anthony Maldonado is the only pitcher on two straight days of usage though.
Update 6:50 EST: Final thoughts. A nice 3.8% gain on the A's. Myers in the cleanup spot becomes interesting on price alone. With Winn & Burleson being bumped up in the lineup for St Louis, I decided to move off Sears + Ranger bats in favor of STL bats, fitting Gray & Houck in the same lineup.
Braves @ Dodgers
Charlie Morton is sitting on the same 14 K-BB% and 3.60 ERA as last season, despite dropping a full mph off his four-seamer and sinker. Pitch modeling grades the arsenal with a 92 Stuff+, but league average 98 Pitching+ with PitchingBot giving the sinker, change and curve all 54 grades, but the four-seamer just a 40 grade, though it’s actually the only pitch (besides the splitter) that the Dodgers have a negative run value against (-0.11 wFA/C). The 9.2 BB% could be an issue against the Dodgers.
Opp wRC+: 131 (11.6 BB%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.45
Gavin Stone threw a season high seven innings against the Blue Jays, allowing just a solo home run, despite only two strikeouts. Down to just a 5.5 K-BB% on the season, a 12.3 SwStr% suggests more is possible if he can get to strike three before ball four. However, pitch modeling is just sort of “meh” on the whole situation, while all non-FIP estimators reside above four with only a 4.12 xERA below his 4.68 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 115 (116 Road)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.07
DFS Notes: A lot of the top, but also most expensive bats on the board here. I’m not considering either of these pitchers and have Ohtani (204 wRC+, .381 ISO v RHP since LY) as the top bat on the board. I chose to jam him in above all others, but Betts, Olson, Acuna, Riley, Pages, Freeman, Muncy all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .200 ISO against RHP since last year. You’re certainly paying down for pitching if stacking this game though.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
Add comment
Comments