I wanted to take a minute on this tiny six game board to express my deepest appreciation to everyone who has supported this endeavor either verbally or financially. It really means a great deal as I try to figure out ways to continue this project and justify the hours put into it whether it moves to another outlet or continues to grow into it’s own thing. One such gracious reader gave me a better name for contributions than donations, which may sound too much like a medical need situation.
Probably needless to say there won’t be any DFS notes tonight because there’s only one non-early game.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal so that I can continue this project and eventually make the site more pleasant to look at.
Rockies @ Marlins
In his one start this season (seven relief appearances), Peter Lambert struck out five of 17 Mariners without a walk, but all six of his baserunners scored. If his 12.5 K-BB%, 40 grade fastball (PB) and 92 Stuff+ plays down in a starting role, as it does for most relievers, estimators that only range from a 3.49 SIERA to a 3.97 xERA are apt to rise. Projection systems have him above five.
Opp wRC+: 80 (78 Home)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 4.36
It’s surprising to see Edward Cabrera’s arsenal grade out only at 101 (Stuff+). PitchingBot grades his change, curve and slider in the 54-55 range, but the fastball (18.1%) just 43. Yes, that’s right, he’s throwing secondaries 82% of the time…which makes them not secondaries to him. Well, his marginal arsenal has been good enough to strike out 21 of 67 batters faced so far, keeping 53.8% of his contact on the ground with just 30% of it hit hard. It’s just three starts, but interesting to note a 91.4 Z-Contact% that supports pitch modeling mediocracy, but a stunning 17.4 Z-O-Swing% that does just the opposite. The point is, if he doesn’t walk batters, his potential is generally regarded as electric. He’s walked only six so far, which is great for him. One thing to watch here is that Cabrera has a substantial reverse split and the Rockies have few LHBs.
Opp wRC+: 81 (27.4 K%)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 4.16
Update 11 EST: Tanner Scott has thrown three days in a row (33 pitches).
Yankees @ Orioles
Whatever you want to say about Carlos Rodon, it’s not as bad as last year. With that out of the way, his 2.48 ERA is at least a run below all estimators, the best of them being a 3.48 xERA (4.4% Barrels/BBE), followed by 3.99 FIP (6.7 HR/FB) and then contact neutral ones starting with a 4.45 SIERA. The 11.8 K-BB% is actually worse than last year (12.6%) and I guess it depends on whether you buy into the contact management being sustainable. Aside from last year, he’s only been above 7% Barrels/BBE just once and that’s when he pitched 7.2 innings in 2020. Pitch modeling loves what he’s throwing (115 Stuff+) with PitchingBot grading the only two pitches he’s thrown more than 100 times at 56 (slider) and 58 (fastball). The 10.2 BB% and 49.2 Z-O-Swing% are a bit concerning.
Opp wRC+: 130
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.07
Some people think this might be the return of Kyle Bradish. If so, he projects somewhere between three and a half and four, coming off a breakout season with an 18.5 K-BB%. However, Fanduel has posted a line with the Yankees moderately favored that makes me think that (Bradish pitching) may not be the case.
Opp wRC+: 122 (8.6 K-BB%, 15.2 HR/FB)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.29
Update 11:25 EST: It IS Bradish and the line has dropped significantly. Over 90 degrees. No Stanton or Mullins. Holmes threw 24 pitches last night, but only eight over the previous four days. Rodon for u5.5 Ks at +120 on FD...just a 9.9 SwStr% and below average 14.2 SwStr%. Only averages 22 BF per start.
Cubs @ Mets
Working as somewhat of a swingman, Ben Brown has produced an efficient 17.2 K-BB% over 23 innings, but the contact profile is atrocious with 13.8% Barrels/BBE and a stunning 64.6% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. With just two of his nine barrels leaving the yard, this results in contact neutral estimators (SIERA/xFIP) around three and a half, but a bloated 5.76 xERA. The good news for Brown is that strikeouts and walks are the more stable numbers. Brown’s arsenal grades a 110 Stuff+ with the 59 grade curveball (PitchingBot) in a starring role.
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.2 K%)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.30
Adrian Houser doesn’t have the stuff to withstand a 14% walk rate. In fact, nobody can successfully navigate a -1.7 K-BB%. If that weren’t bad enough, his contact profile includes 9.8% Barrerls/BBE and 43.9 Hard%. With a 95 Stuff+ grade and 5.01 Bot ERA, Houser is likely pitching for his rotation life here.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -6
B30: 3.23
This game is pick’em F5 and I’m kind of thinking maybe the Cubs should be favored? But Houser can’t be this bad. Or least he hasn’t been in the past. I may need to revisit this one in the morning…by which time the line will probably move to Cubs being favored.
Update 11:35 EST: Near double digit wind out to center, 80 degrees. The line has moved towards the Cubs enough to end the pondering. Of course, part of that might be Lindor and Martinez being out. No Swanson for Cubs and Mervis being out adds a RHB, totaling 5 for Cubs against Houser, who has a 37 wOBA/16 xwOBA point difference favoring LHBs since last year.
Giants @ Red Sox
Kyle Harrison is coming off his best start of the season, striking out seven of 23 Pirates without a walk. However, he did allow three more barrels, giving up 10 on the season (10.1%), but was due for some barrel/home run regression with five of his previous seven leaving the park. The big thing is a 3.7% walk rate that was unexpected after control problems in the minors. That’s been far more impressive than an 8.9 SwStr% and 90 Stuff+. He’s living on a 55 grade fastball 65.4% of the time, which may explain the lack of swings and misses, though I’m not sure it’s the best use of his arsenal with PitchingBot also giving him a 59 grade slurve that’s thrown only 11.2% of the time. A 3.59 SIERA is the only estimator more than one-quarter run removed from Harrison’s 4.09 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 101 (153 L7days)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.95
Josh Wincowski has lasted 3.1 and 3 innings in his two starts, throwing 46, but then only 52 pitches. It doesn’t appear like they’re stretching him out the traditional way, so perhaps they only want three innings from him. He’s only struck out two of the 25 batters he’s faced in these starts and has a 48.3% hard contact rate on the season, resulting in a 4.86 xERA that’s quite a bit above his 3.50 ERA and additional estimators. The problem with pitch modeling is that the season numbers included bullpen work that results in a 107 Stuff+ grade. Wincowski has just 172.2 major league innings under his belt with a 10.3 K-BB%. I’m not sure we should look for anything better here.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.68
Update 11:45 EST: Just below 70, wind out to left center at 8 mph. Both pitchers have shown reverse splits in limited samples. The Giants have replaced Wade with Flores today, leaning into that a bit with five RHBs (about a 40 points split since last year), while the Red Sox have just the two LHBs at the top (near 30 point xwOBA, larger wOBA split).
Nationals @ Rangers
The 35+ Future Value grade Fangraphs slapped on 24 year-old Parker Mitchell may already be ancient history after he’s burst onto the major league scene with only 14.1 AAA innings (22 K-BB%) and struck out 14 of 62 innings, walking just two with a 47.8% ground ball rate. Do you buy into the 30 innings above AA or the projections? His 96 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ will play at this level, while PitchingBot likes both the fastball (54 grade) and curve (56), which makes up 79.3% of his pitches thrown. The worst estimator is a 3.60 dERA, but projection systems still have him a bit above four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 94 (26.5 K%)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.76
Okay. Yikes! Nathan Eovaldi has walked 11 of his 53 batters and had his lowest velocity of the season last time out, in line with when he came back late in the 2023 season. This is a concern, mitigated a bit by the fact that he’s also struck out 14 of his last 53 batters too with a 13.4 SwStr% that has actually brought down his season average (14.6%) and has kept 76% of his contact on the ground over this span with just a single barrel. Pitch modeling grades the stuff mostly average on the season (99 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+), but the splitter (31.5%) still gets a 61 grade from PitchingBot and yes, small sample, but Washington has been the second worst offense against splitters this season (-4.54 wFS/C).
Opp wRC+: 99 (21%)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.72
What are you buying? Mitchell’s performance, projections or a little bit of both? What about Eovaldi’s sudden control issues? A problem or no because he’s still bee dominant otherwise? I think meeting both somewhere in the middle still pushes me towards the Nationals at +176 here. Bullpens and offense v L/RHP has been mostly a wash (though I expect the Rangers to eventually surpass the Nationals in this manner offensively). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network, not necessarily for the plays, but quicker info dumps.)
Update 12:40 EST: Roof closed. Jim Wolf has a slight pitcher lean. Mitchell has shown a sizeable reverse split in three starts. Texas keeping four LHBs in, but just four in LU < 23.5 K% v LHP since LY.
Guardians @ Astros
In his second start, Logan Allen shut out the Mariners over 6.2 innings, his only quality start of the season. He has neither completed six innings, nor failed to allow at least three runs in every other start. Non-FIP estimators range tightly from a 4.35 SIERA to a 4.40 xFIP and dERA. It’s also incredibly difficult to navigate between the two Logan Allen’s with the way I’m pulling data from Statcast, so I’ll stop there.
Opp wRC+: 123 (16.5 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 2.88
SpAghetti has struck out 15 of 58 batters with a 14.5 SwStr% with a single barrel and 37.1% hard hit rate. However, he’s also walked seven and been pummeled for 13 runs without surpassing four innings in any of his three starts. Normally, we’d laugh at a .500 BABIP and 52.8 LOB% with those kind of bat missing numbers, but 64 Stuff+ grade is terrifying. Only Chris Flexen has pitched more than 20 innings and been worse. The good news is that non-FIP estimators here also tightly pack into a 4.10 SIERA to 4.46 dERA range.
Opp wRC+: 102 (19.6 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.98
Update 4:40 EST: Roof closed.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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