Only got about two-thirds of the way through on Tuesday night. Will finish up in the morning.
We also have three games still off the board without confirmed pitchers (all on the main DFS slate of course), although Zac Gallen seems pretty certain against the Dodgers, where there was some doubt due to a hamstring issue. In fact, I've just seen he and Roddery Munoz confirmed as I'm typing this and ready to post.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, donations are welcome (mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal), so that I can continue doing this and make the site more pleasant to look at.
Cardinals @ Tigers
Miles Mikolas is coming off maybe his best game of the year, striking out five Mets without a walk and second highest swinging strike rate of the season (8.2%), along with his lowest hard hit rate of the year (33.3%). All estimators are below his 5.91 ERA with a 5.72 xERA the only one above five and 3.92 xFIP the only one below four. He’s always been a control artists, who’s struggled to miss bats, but managed contact well. That last aspect had been absent previous to his last start. With just a 90 Stuff+ mark, I’m not convinced it’s the start of something good rather than an aberration.
Opp wRC+: 89 (89 Home too)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.86
After I mentioned that Kenta Maeda was throwing non-competitive fastballs, his velocity jumped back above 90 mph for only the second start this season. It was enough to shut out the Rays over five innings, striking out five of 20. It doesn’t seem to be something you can trust though. With a favorable contact profile (32.4 Hard%) to go with a meager 10 K-BB%, Maeda’s best estimator is a 4.46 xERA that’s exactly a run and a half better than actual results. It’s a bit unfortunate that all seven of his barrels have been home runs, but nobody thinks he’s throwing quality offerings up there (43 grade fastball, 90 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 88 (77 Road, 72 L7days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.77
Update 12:45 EST: Near 15 mph wind in from right, but temps in 70s. Negative run environment (96 run factor Statcast 3 yr). With the ineptness of these two offenses and two solid defenses and bullpens, I'm going under 9 (-108). Kept it to half a unit because the Detroit pen was heavily used on Tuesday.
Rays @ Brewers
Zach Eflin’s efficiency and consistency from last season have taken an early hit, as he’s allowed at least four runs in half his start, but just a single one in all of his other three combined. To make it even more confusing, the bad starts have come against the White Sox, Angels and Blue Jays, while the goods ones were against the Yankees, Rangers and Angels. Estimators range from a 3.45 xERA to a 4.27 dERA with the latter the only one above four and while the arsenal doesn’t impress with a 96 Stuff+, that bumps up to a 109 Pitching+ with PitchingBot giving the sinker, sweeper and curve all grades above 60. Overall, his swinging strike rate is down a point and a half with his hard hit rate up five points. He also had a sinker velocity drop off last start with only his last start of 2023 lower over the last two years.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: -1
B30: 3.99
A 4.71 xFIP is the closest estimator to Colin Rea’s 3.25 ERA (.244 BABIP, 86.2 LOB%). He doesn’t have a single pitch grade above 50 (PB) and only one that high (sinker) and just an 86 Stuff+ grade.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 6
B30: 4.29
Update 1 EST: Roof open first time this year. Statcast says that generally increases run environment from 94 to 98, though temps still just below 70 could negate the positive effect. No Siri or Paredes for Rays. Brew Crew jamming in lefties (6), but Eflin slight reverse split since last year, though Statcast mostly nullifies that.
Twins @ White Sox
After opening the season with eight runs in 1.1 innings, Bailey Ober is already down to a 4.21 ERA with just four runs over his last 24.1 innings. With a 17.6 K-BB% and throwing a mph harder than last year, estimators are even better than that. While a 4.87 dERA is more than half a run above actual results, every other estimator is below his ERA.
Opp wRC+: 74 (68 Home)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.51
Chris Flexen has a 39 Stuff+. No other pitcher with at least 20 innings is below 74. Explains why he doesn’t have an estimator below five.
Opp wRC+: 101 (173 L7days)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.59
Update 1:10 EST: No Jimenez or Jeffers, but temps in 70s w/ double digit wind out to LC. The White Sox pen was unloaded last night and now have the worst estimators (4.91) in the majors over the last 30 days. It's a big number, but going over on Twins 5.5 (Even).
Royals @ Blue Jays
Seth Lugo came into his last start in Detroit with just 14 strikeouts over his first five starts and left with nine more. Aside from the Tigers, he’s also faced the Twins and the White Sox (twice), yet still sits at a 15 K% and 92 Z-Contact%. A 3.42 FIP is his best estimator by more than a run because only two of his 10 barrels have left the yard. This will be a much tougher test against a low strikeout offense.
Opp wRC+: 98 (20.8 K%)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.10
Chris Bassitt was smoked by the Dodgers last time out and that’s fine, but it was his four time allowing at least four runs in six starts and he’s now sitting on a 12.4% walk rate. A 4.39 xFIP is his only estimator below four and a half. Pitch modeling is split, as PitchingBot still likes his sinker (57 grade), but that’s about it with a few offerings graded in the 30s and Stuff+ kinda sees it all as…meh (99).
Opp wRC+: 100 (18.6)
DEF: 7
B30: 4.26
Update 2:30 EST: Vogelsmash in for Turner and the Royals really seem to like Adam Frazier, but it makes a bit of sense here and this will lead to two small plays for this game. Well, not Frazier specifically, but he lowers the strikeout rate here. Only three batters in the lineup above a 21.3 K% against RHP since last year and while Bassitt has a 21.1 CStr%, his 6.7 SwStr% and 3.2 K/SwStr% is not sustainable. He also has a massive platoon split (LHBs .378 wOBA, .354 xwOBA since LY) and will face five of them today. Bassitt u4.5 Ks (+125) and KCR (+120).
Pirates @ Athletics
Quinn Priester showed some of that 50 Future Value talent Fangraphs slapped on him, striking out six of 22 Giants with just three hits and a walk last time out. He has allowed four barrels and a 48.5 Hard% in two starts and gets poor pitch modeling grades (5.00 Bot ERA, 94 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 86 (28.1 K%)
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.90
Ross Stripling has struck out just 16.9% of batters, but hasn’t walked many (5.4%) with just a 31.3% hard hit rate. He has poor pitch modeling grades, but the Bot still loves the changeup (60 grade) and a 4.99 dERA is his worst estimator by nearly two-thirds of a run. There are worse pitchers in the league, but at this pace, Oakland won’t be collecting much for him in July.
Opp wRC+: 81
DEF: -6.5
B30: 4.00
Update 2:45 EST: Pirates jamming RHBs (except McCutchen) at the top half of the order, but no real reverse split for Stripling. I don't know who has the better starting pitching here, but when I reran the numbers this morning, OAK pen estimators L30 days average just 2.90, which is second best in the majors. I guess they had a bad opening weekend or something that's no longer a part of the equation. Miller threw 15 pitches last night, but after three days off. The A's have the better offense against RHP (slightly) and better bad defense. Small play on the A's (-106).
Braves @ Mariners
Chris Sale has gone exactly seven innings in three straight starts and struck out either six or seven in all five of them. It’s not the dominance we became accustomed to a decade ago, but a 21.1 K-BB% with just 6.1% Barrels/BBE and a 29.3% hard hit rate is not too shabby. In fact, all estimators are at least two-tenths of a run below his 3.69 ERA with every pitch grading above average (54-59 PitchingBot) with a 3.07 Bot ERA and 112 Stuff+ overall.
Opp wRC+: 84 (25.1 K%)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.63
Emmerson Hancock has gone exactly six innings with exactly four strikeouts and a total of four earned runs over his last three starts. That said, a 5.06 ERA matches his 5.07 FIP and isn’t too far below a 5.36 xERA. His calling card is great control (4.6 BB%), but a lack of strikeouts (17.3%) hurts him with a marginal contact profile (47% hard hit rate). Pitching Bot (3.92 ERA) sees a better profile than Stuff+ (87)
Opp wRC+: 120 (125 Road)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.39
With enormous edges for the Braves in both starting pitching and offense, there’s a good chance I’d be on Sale should the F5 line (-166) drop without mitigating circumstances.
Update 3 EST: A couple of minor enhancements in favor of Sale and the Braves. Mitch Haniger is out, replaced by Zavala, which is a pretty big RHB and one of the few low K rates out of the lineup. Also, Tromp in for D'arnaud & Duvall in for Kelenic for the Braves. Hancock does in fact have a large reverse split in his small sample of major league activity (100 points by wOBA, 30 by xwOBA). Unfortunately, this line has spiked and is now -190 for the F5.
Phillies @ Angels
While his velocity was back down again last time out after two games at least year’s levels, Zack Wheeler still struck out eight of 22 Reds, but still walked four. I’m not concerned. The man has a 31.1 K% and 34.8 Hard%, while PitchingBot still grades his fastball at 67 out of 80 and his 101 Stuff+ grade jumps up to a 109 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 97 (24.9 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.35
The .390 BABIP and 56.3 LOB% will regress, but Patrick Sandoval’s velocity has dipped his last two starts and he’s now walked 11% of the batters he’s faced. A 12.1 SwStr% and 4.8% Barrels/BBE. Pitch modeling still sees him as somewhat of an average pitcher, as do non-FIP estimators that only range from a 4.10 xFIP to 4.26 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 116 (113 Road)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.43
Update 3:15 EST: Game is in less than an hour, but the Angels haven't submitted a lineup yet. Rumor has it, Washington is in denial and keeps writing Trout's name in the lineup card. They even found one where he tried to sneak in Ohtani.
Reds @ Padres
Graham Ashcraft’s 110 Stuff+ is an indicator that his arsenal has improved, as is a 10.8 SwStr% that’s improved by 1.2 points each year, leading to a 21.3 K% that’s nearly league average to go with his 52.8 GB%. The 4.40 ERA matches a 4.34 FIP because five of his six barrels have left the park, which I imagine is a Cincinnati thing, but other estimators only range from a 3.35 xFIP to a 3.78 dERA. It’s not a breakout as much as an establishing.
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.2 K%)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.96
Oh boy! Joe Musgrove has allowed eight barrels and six home runs over his last two starts. The four-seam has a -5.7 RV/100 and .688 SLG against, getting a 41 grade from PichingBot. To his credit, he’s only throwing it 22% of the time and all his other pitches grade above 50 with a shining 115 Stuff+, but jeez, this is bad. His best estimator is a 4.67 SIERA with just a 17.1 K%, despite a 12.2 SwStr%. Maybe stop throwing the four-seamer completely? I don’t really know.
Opp wRC+: 84 (28.3 K%)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.24
Update 3:30 EST: With Wade in for Bogaerts, it adds an extra LHB (5) against Ashcraft's reverse split, while the Reds are leaning into Musgrove's with Espinal and Fairchild. I think the books may be slightly undervaluing Ashcraft's strikeout rate increase, but it's pretty borderline.
Yankees @ Orioles
Luis Gil walked a season low two Brewers last time out, but also allowed a season high five runs, including his first two runs and three barrels of the season. The stuff is dynamic (121 Stuff+, 57 grade changeup PB), resulting in a 32.4 K%. It also shows up in other ways (20.8 IFFB%, 28.8 Hard%). The problem is that he can’t command or control it consistently (101 Pitching+, 17.6 BB%), which also shows up in a 45.2 Z-O-Swing%. He can’t get them to chase when he falls behind and then they sit on a fastball he throws 58.7% of the time. It’s also prevented him from finishing six innings in any of his starts. It does really say something that his worst estimator is just a 4.23 SIERA despite that awful walk rate.
Opp wRC+: 113 (120 Home) (includes Tuesday stats for all games posted today)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.07
Over his last five starts, Corbin Burnes has just a 20.3 K% without more than six in any start since his first. He’s also allowed 10.5% Barrels/BBE over this span. His season estimators still range from a 3.00 xERA to a 3.77 dERA with a 117 Stuff+ (110 Pitching+) and 60 grade cutter (PB). The curveball (56 grade) has shown the biggest reduction in whiff rate (48.8% to 32.1%), while seeing an increase in usage (17.1% to 24.4%). This isn’t new territory for Burnes though. He looked rather civilian in the first half last season too before turning it on post-break.
Opp wRC+: 124 (8.6 K-BB%, 15.2 HR/FB)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.29
DFS Notes: This slate is just seven games, starting a half hour earlier than usual and boy is it a tough one. We have four protected environment and two colder ones (one extremely) in the north east, which may dictate or pitching decisions. Yet, four runs is our halfway point in this one with just eight teams topping that mark, but five of them above four and a half implied runs, four in protected environments, though we already know the Diamondbacks intend on opening the roof (though after what happened last night, maybe they shouldn’t).
This is the one outdoor park with no weather issues tonight. In fact, it’s expected to be 80 degrees without wind issues. I suspect Corbin Burnes might be the most popular pitcher based on name value alone and he is almost alone in that respect. However, he’s fallen off (as you can read above) since his first start and the Yankees have the highest outdoor total on the board tonight (4.57), if you’re not counting the game in Arizona. I’m going to lean underweight on Burnes here (actually, I may only make one single entry lineup and don’t currently have him in it) and pay down for pitching, up for bats. Aside from Soto (172) and Judge (162) nobody else in the standard NYY LU against RHP is above a 110 wRC+ against RHP since last year. Gil is volatile enough that some exposure to both sides of the equation is warranted. O’Hearn (131 wRC+, .194 ISO v RHP since LY) would seem to have the most value, but batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Gil. Kimbrel is IL’d, but there are no other bullpen concerns (usage) for either team.
Update 4 EST: Mountcastle out. Hjerstad adds a LHB against Gil, who really has no split. Verdugo back for Yankees and they add Trevino behind the plate, adding a RHB against Burnes's reverse split.
Rockies @ Marlins
Dakota Hudson allowed three runs in his first start, but they were all unearned. He’s allowed at least three runs in every additional start, all earned. With an 85 Stuff+, 5.07 Bot ERA and not a single average pitch by PitchingBot standards, don’t expect estimators that only drop as low as a 4.85 dERA to improve. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .345 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 80 (78 Home)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.36
The Marlins have had a ton of great young pitching prospects come through the organization over the last decade, even if a lot of them didn’t pan out. Roddery Munoz is not one of them. The 24 year-old has a 40+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) with a great fastball/slider combination that profiles in relief because there’s not much else. This is his third NL East organization since last year and a -6.5 K-BB% in 15.2 AAA innings this season earned him this promotion. He struck out seven of 18 Cubs with a single walk in an April 20th starts, but with a 9.1 SwStr% and two barrels. Major projection systems have him not too far below a five ERA/FIP combination.
Opp wRC+: 81 (27.4 K%)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.16
DFS Notes: The Marlins rarely open the roof and never tell us if they do. Statcast actually has this as a positive run environment (102) over the last three years with the roof closed (94 open air), though it still kills right-handed power (84 home run factor) either way. I don’t know anything beyond Munoz aside from what’s written above. That said, the Rockies are on the road with a 3.89 team total. Good enough for SP2 consideration for $6.5K because you probably don’t want to touch any of the pitchers cheaper than him, Dakota Hudson being one. The Marlins have a 4.61 team total and my preliminary single entry lineup includes both De La Cruz (94 wRC+, .177 ISO v RHP since LY) and Sanchez (115, .193), though I really can’t any poor values here (aside from Anderson and maybe whoever catches) considering the opposition. Just beware that 55.4% of Hudson’s contact is on the ground, so stacking the Marlins up and hoping for some BABIP adventures to run up the score may be the way to go here. Tanner Scott has thrown 23 pitches the last two days.
Update 4:10 EST: It seems we have a hitter friendly umpire in Edwin Moscoso, but don't overestimate what that means. The difference between the most hitter and pitcher friendly umpires in the league is only a bit more than a quarter of a run by ERA (which means about half a run combining both teams). That generally means a quarter up or down. It's kind of a big deal in extreme circumstances, but doesn't break anything.
Cubs @ Mets
Shoto Imanaga has allowed more than a single run in just one start, but really hasn’t faced many better than average offenses aside from the Dodgers, whom he shut out for just four innings. PitchingBot is more enamored with the arsenal than Stuff+ (98), grading the fastball, sweeper and curve all 55 or better. However, a 109 Pitching+ grade speaks to how proficiently he’s been able to spot those pitches, which goes into those PB grades, but not Stuff+. This is further illustrated by a 2.8 BB% and 23.1 K-BB%. A 4.10 dERA is the outlier here with estimators otherwise ranging from a 2.40 FIP to a 3.29 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 115 (15.3 K%)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.30
Jose Butto followed up a rough outing against the Dodgers by walking three of 24 Cardinals with two home runs allowed, though the damage was done early, after which he did settle down. None the less, he’s up to a 13.3 BB% after walking five Dodgers previously and now also has a 50% hard contact rate, though he’s only allowed three barrels (6%) with a 27.8 K%. Pitch modeling frowns upon Butto without a single pitch grading above a 47 fastball (PB) and an overall 87 Stuff+ grade (88 Pitching+). Estimators range from a 4.08 SIERA to a 4.80 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 94 (81 Road)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.23
DFS Notes: Cool weather, around 60 degrees makes either pitcher usable here in an already negative run environment. Imanaga is $10K though and probably isn’t that kind of pitcher long term, while his presence would weaken the rest of your lineup. As noted above, I’m choosing to pay down for pitching, but would not blame you if you did not. The Mets have been proficient against LHP in small sample without a lot of swing and miss and get Marte, who has looked healthy, back. Both teams are below four implied runs. Butto has enough upside for his $8K price tag, but probably just barely against a struggling offense on the road missing a couple of top bats (Bellinger, Suzuki). Mike Tauchman has a 174 wRC+ L30 days, while Baty and Nido are the only projected Mets below a 100 wRC+ against LHP since last year, but there are certainly better spots to pay up for your offense, though J.D. Martinez (141, .305) is fairly cheap against a southpaw.
Update 4:35 EST: Taylor in for Nimmo is the only news here. Both have virtually the same strikeout rate against RHP, but Imanaga's K prop is a bit intriguing at 4.5 +145. I have him projected right around that. He normally faces around 22 batters per start and the Mets actual LU strikes out a bit less than average against LHP. Martinez (31.4%) and Nido (33.3%) increase it a bit.
Giants @ Red Sox
Daulton Jefferies? Bullpen game? Both?
Opp wRC+: 107 (v RHP) (153 L7days)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.95
Kutter Crawford allowed more than a single run last time out against the Cubs, but still collected his third quality start. He’s allowed hard contact on just 26.1% of his batted balls, which includes a mere six barrels (6.5%), while striking out nearly a quarter of batters faced (24.6%). PitchingBot views the package as fairly pedestrian, though there’s nothing wrong with a league average pitcher, though non-FIP estimators (no home runs) ranging from a 2.81 xERA to a 4.04 dERA are more in line with 104 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 98 (77 L7days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.68
DFS Notes: Ordinarily, Fenway would be the most hitter friendly park on this slate, but it’s going to be 50 degrees here again, if that. We got a 4-0 game last night and it may not be that again because we don’t even know who’s pitching for the Giants. Daulton Jefferies is assumed in some places , though that’s not exactly a deterrent. He was mauled in his only outing of the year. The Red Sox have a 4.45 run team total despite the weather and while I generally stay away from attacking bullpen games, I think you need some Boston exposure if playing mult-entry, though the weather is keeping Red Sox out of my single entry play so far. Kutter Crawford is my DK SP1 ($8.6K), but is over $1K more on FD. The Giants have a 4.05 team total that is middle of this board, but I think there’s enough upside. Only three normal Giants against RHP are below a 22.5 K% against them since last year. That said, LaMonte Wade (167 wRC+ L30 days) still has value within $400 of $3K. Crawford has held batters from both sides below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since last year, so I really don’t like any Giants beyond that.
Nationals @ Rangers
The 18.8 K% is exactly his career rate, but Trevor Williams has yet to allow a home run with just four barrels (5.4%). Even with a 41.9% hard contact rate, a 3.00 xERA is not far above his 2.70 ERA, but all other estimators exceed four. With none reaching four and a half, this is still better than he’s been, but one wonders if he can sustain the contact profile after allowing a career high 10.2% Barrels/BBE last year. He’s never otherwise been above eight percent though. Pitch modeling is conflicted as well (80 Stuff+, 93 Pitching+, 4.17 Bot ERA), though PitchingBot has always liked his fastball (56 grade this year). Yet, batters from either side of the plate are between a .345 and .367 wOBA and xwOBA against Williams since last year.
Opp wRC+: 110 (18.5 K%)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.76
Andrew Heaney is still giving up bombs (four home runs on seven barrels in his last two starts alone), but now with a reduced strikeout rate (21.6%) and at least two walks in three of his five starts. Pitch modeling sees an 83 Stuff+, but 99 Pitching+, while PitchingBot still grades four seam (53) and slider (56) above average. His best estimator is a 4.37 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 87
DEF: 6
B30: 3.72
DFS Notes: Assuming a closed roof, the Rangers are still the top team on the board at 5.19 implied runs with the Nationals at just 3.81. I’m still not trusting Heaney and consider Nick Senzel (136 wRC+ L30 days) perhaps the top value on the board, should he remain in the second spot against LHP. Like Tyler Anderson yesterday, Trevor Williams always seems like a guy you should stack against, but end up frustrated. Particularly this season with improved contact management, but that’s not such a sticky thing. You gotta have Rangers on this slate. Some of them (Carter, Lowe) are fairly affordable, while Seager is a top bat on the board overall. The first five in the projected and normal Texas order against RHP all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .170 ISO against RHP since last year.
Update 4:30 EST: Roof is closed. Only minor lineup change is Adams in for Ruiz, which increases Heaney's strikeout projection by about two-tenths of a K if you're leaning towards him rediscovering those.
Guardians @ Astros
Triston McKenzie has struck out 13 of his last 40 batters with a 14.5 SwStr% and his velocity even ticked up last time out (91 mph), though still nowhere near where he’s sat in previous seasons. It does seem a bit fluky that he threw that 91 mph heater two-thirds of the time against Boston and generated a 17.3 SwStr% last time out. He still only has one estimator below his 4.91 ERA (4.83 xERA) and he’s still frowned upon by pitch modeling. McKenzie has a 98 Stuff+, but just 88 Pitching+ rating, while PitchingBot (6.24 ERA) doesn’t grade any of his offerings above 45 and even that goes to his least frequently thrown pitch (curveball 20%).
Opp wRC+: 112 (16.6 K%, 144 Home0
DEF: 3
B30: 3.57
Justin Verlander stepped up the strikeout in his second start at Wrigley, punching out seven of 21 Cubs, but also walking four. We’re looking at a 26.9 K%, but 9.8 BB% with five barrels, but only nine hard hit balls through two starts. Pitch modeling thinks it’s seeing prime Verlander out there (121 Stuff+), though PitchingBot tempers the enthusiasm, grading the three offerings he’s thrown more than 10 times between 47 and 50.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.1 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.27
I thought I was the low man on Verlander, but I can’t explain him sitting at just -145 for the F5 here. We’re looking at sizeable Houston advantages in pitching and hitting at home here. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network, not necessarily for the plays, but to get quicker info dumps.)
DFS Notes: Okay, so maybe Burnes isn’t so alone in name recognition, but despite my liking the price on the Astros tonight in terms of moneyline, this is a tough lineup to pay up for pitching against. Just two in the standard Cleveland LU against RHP reach a 20 K% against RHP since last year. Yet, on this slate, almost anything goes. The Guardians have just a 3.93 run total, while the Naylors are the only guys with above average power against RHP. Did you know Jose Ramirez has just a .177 ISO against RHP since last year? The Astros are the other team above five implied runs (5.07) and while Alvarez (166 wRC+, .301 ISO against RHP since LY) and Tucker (133, .209) top bats on the slate, Astros are more expensive than Rangers on the whole, but Luperfido for less than $3K can be a lineup fix. Every top reliever for each team threw in a wild one last night, though Hader (31), Abreu (21) and Montero (26), all for the Astros, had the highest pitch counts. That may serve to push Verlander deeper into this game and higher his floor, despite the lack of strikeouts in the Cleveland lineup.
Update 4:50 EST: Closed roof. The Astros actually have FIVE LHBs. No actual split from McKenzie, but LHBs are 100 points better by xwOBA since last year. The Guardians have added a RHB (Fry) against Verlander's reverse split. I'd be on the Houston team over (4.5) here if I weren't already on them F5 and that may be the way to go if you missed the line last night because it's up 3.51%.
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Yoshi Yama dominated the Nationals for six full innings (no runs, seven strikeouts, one walk) with only three hard hit balls and no barrels, despite his lowest swinging strike rate of the season (8.2%). He also did this throwing more four seam fastballs (42) than he has in any other game. The Nationals took most of them and didn’t elevate a single one (go to Statcast game logs on player pages and click on the pie on the right then scroll down, it’s a fun ride). It seems like a poor approach to a well-publicized issue. Let’s see if Arizona approaches him the same way (probably not). PitchingBot grades all his pitches 58 or better, while a 3.53 dERA and 3.58 xERA match the actual results (3.54). However, a 104 Stuff+ grade and 107 Pitching+ are good, but not $300 million good.
Opp wRC+: 87 (9.9 K-BB%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.07
So it isn’t Zac Gallen after all because it bees that way sometimes (Drum roll please.)
Down 1.8 mph on his sinker and one Scott Boras (last time for this joke), Jordan Montgomery has effective limited hard contact (one barrel, 31% hard hit rate) through his pair of starts, walking just one, but also only striking out only seven of 50 batters with a 6.6 SwStr% and 90.3 Z-Contact%. He’s gotten some help from a .220 BABIP, but has a perfectly competent 100 Stuff+ and even better 105 Pitching+ with a 60 grade sinker (PB) and 57 grade curveball making up 74.5% of his pitches thrown.
Opp wRC+: 119 (18.1 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.54
DFS Notes: An open roof here probably makes this the top run environment on the slate (assuming closed roof in Texas) with the Diamondbacks at 4.16 implied runs and the Dodgers at 4.84. I’m paying up for right-handed Dodgers here, which includes Mookie (192 wRC+, .338 ISO v LHP since LY) and Mr. Smith (144, .218) at a light catcher position tonight. RHBs have been league average (.301 wOBA, .317 xwOBA) against Montgomery since last season and this certainly isn’t the best version of him yet. I think a contact prone Arizona lineup could give Yamamoto some problems. I forgot to mention above that their 0.82 wFA/C is the third best offensive mark against four-seamers in baseball. I would have some Arizona exposure in multi-entry, perhaps overweight from the field, though don’t have any in my single entry lineup. I think both sides of the equation are a risk here, but one worth taking. I considered paying up for Yamamoto too, not that much more expensive than Crawford. It’s a tough board. Lastly, for this game, every single top Diamondback reliever threw at least 18 pitches last night. I have no idea how they plan to cover nine here and it makes Dodger bats more attractive. For the Dodgers, Hudson and Kelly have each thrown at least 25 pitches the last two days.
One last note. I’ll be out of the house by 5 EST tonight and won’t be able to post minor updates on anything past that.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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