Only got a bit more than half way through it on Monday night. I was too busy screaming at an umpire calling everything James Paxton threw a strike in the fourth inning. Off the plate, shoulder high, etc... I kid. It's only April. That doesn't start until at least the third week of May. We're into the seventh start for a bunch of these guys and some teams haven't even named or given a clue as to their starter on Tuesday.
All stats through Sunday, unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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Cardinals @ Tigers
Matz and Maeda were covered yesterday. Gibson and Flaherty are currently listed on MLB.com for Game One, but there is no line. Will elaborate if necessary once we have more information.
Update 3:15 EST: Quickly, Gibson doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half, while Flaherty’s 25.8 K-BB% is fourth among qualified pitchers. DET 89 wRC+ Hm & v RHP, STL 77/88. STL has a 20 pt wRC+ edge L7 days. The Tigers are really only being given credit for not much more than home field at -135 F5 (full game is fine for slightly less too), when Flaherty has been the far better pitcher here.
Yankees @ Orioles
Nestor Cortes is a workhorse all of a sudden, going at least seven innings in three of his last four, which encompasses all of his home starts against the Marlins, Rays and A’s. He’s turned in a 22.2 K% that would be his lowest since coming to New York, but also a career low 3.5 BB% with just four barrels. A 2.52 xERA illustrates five home runs allowed (a non-barreled home run in Cleveland). Additional estimators are above, but within a quarter run of his 3.50 ERA (except a 4.15 dERA).
Opp wRC+: 131 (126 Home)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.11
With his lowest velocity since 2022 (92.6 mph), Dean Kremer struck out a season high 10 of 20 Angels in the only start where he hasn’t allowed multiple barrels this season (13.6% Barrels/BBE). A 3.59 SIERA sits a run below his 4.61 ERA, a 5.40 xERA nearly a run above.
Opp wRC+: 129 (8.9 K-BB%, 15.3 HR/FB, 129 Road too)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.39
Update 3:20 EST: Temps in the 80s at start. No NYY LU yet.
Rockies @ Marlins
Whose pitching for the Marlins tonight? Who cares?
Update 3:40 EST: It's Six Toe! His 4.3 K-BB% and even worse 4.7 SwStr% is not likely to improve in a starting role. With a 17 K-BB%, Ryan Feltner's worst non-FIP estimator is a 3.75 xFIP. MIA 77/80 wRC+ Hm/v RHP, COL 86/81. MIA worst MLB defense. Rox as dog F5 (+105).
Royals @ Blue Jays
Cole Ragans has struck out just eight of his last 35 batters, but hasn’t been below a 10.5 SwStr% in any start. He did lose some velocity last night. At 95 mph, it was his lowest average fastball velo since his first outing for the Royals. None of it’s cause for concern yet, as he’s still carrying a 20.3 K-BB% and has allowed just five barrels, even if the whiff rate on his slider has been cut in half (40% last year, 19.4% this year). All estimators are below his 3.90 ERA and pitch modeling still likes the arsenal (3.55 Bot ERA, 65 grade four-seamer, 110 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 114 (6.2 K-BB%)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.52
Written here before his last start…” The 0.85 ERA doesn’t have to be anywhere near sustainable for Jose Berrios to be a quality pitcher. However, with just a 14.7 K-BB% and 47.1% hard hit rate he may not be much more than that. Half his contact (50.6%) has been on the ground and he’s induced popups on 23.1% of fly balls. A 28.1 Z-O-Swing% is second on the board, so he’s getting a lot of chases and favorable launch angles, but still too much hard contact. With just two of his six barrels leaving the yard, a 3.32 FIP is his best estimator by 0.3 runs. On a pitch level basis, Berrios has just a 97 Stuff+, but all his offerings grade between 53 and 59 via Pitching Bot. With a .250 BABIP 44 points below his career level and near perfect 99.4% strand rate, expect massive regression, but he should still be a fine pitcher.” Massive regression didn’t mean he was going to walk three Royals with one strikeout with his velocity plummeting below 92 mph. Was this a bad weather game because I kind of want to write this one off? Scary if not.
Opp wRC+: 96 (18.9 K%)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.68
DFS Notes: Only the Astros (5.07) reach five implied runs with five more team above four and a half runs or even 4.25, three more of them coming from protected environments. The open air parks all have at least cool temperatures with the northeast being most pitcher friendly and also the only spots with any rain potential, though winds shouldn’t have too much of an effect on any of today’s affairs.
We start in one of those protected environments, where the roof has been closed for nearly every game this season so far. Neither team reaches four implied runs with the Blue Jays nearly half a run ahead of the Royals. I’m less concerned about recent issues for Ragans and certainly see him as a viable SP2 on DK at an extraordinarily low price ($7.8K), but probably wouldn’t be playing him for $1.4K more on FD, due to the lack of upside the Blue Jays offer. Though, consider that they have few LHBs and Ragans has a massive reverse split with LHBs just above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA and RHBs below .280 against him since last year. Davis Schneider now has a career 203 wRC+ and .459 ISO against LHP in his career. Berrios is probably too expensive against another low strikeout offense here. Guys like Witt (119 wRC+, .219 ISO v RHP since LY) and Pasquantino (109, .218) have much more value on FD.
Cubs @ Mets
Not even considering the ridiculous 2.00 ERA, Javier Assad is having a pretty nice season by virtue of estimators sitting between a 2.87 xERA (a single barrel in each start) and a 4.56 dERA. This is supported by a 16 K-BB% and mere 27.5% hard hit rate. However, via pitch modeling metrics, a 51 grade cutter (24.8%) is his only above average graded pitch by five points and the overall picture isn’t pretty either (4.91 Bot ERA, 90 Stuff+). How can that be? Well, he has just a 6.9 SwStr% and 90.9 Z-Contact%. He’s going to need to keep up that contact profile because the strikeout rate is headed for a tumble at an otherworldly 3.58 K/Swstr.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -4
B30: 4.32
It may look like Sean Manaea has kept his gains from late last season with a 3.33 ERA nearly matching a 3.47 FIP, but that really hasn’t been the case at all. He’s benefited from just one of his six barrels leaving the yard, while rocking a 13.1 BB% and even worse, he’s walked 10 of his last 61 batters. He hasn’t held the velocity gains either, down a mph from last season with single game velocities all over the map (up, down and sideways). Pitch modeling doesn’t give him credit for a single above average pitch, topping out at 49 grade four-seamer he throws just 17.4% of the time and an 85 Stuff+ (95 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 136 (20.3 K%)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.18
I have a slight lean towards the Cubs F5 here. What’s stopping me is Assad’s poor SwStr%, Z-Contact% and the smaller sample for the Cubs against LHP. May re-evaluate tomorrow. Mets may not have Diaz available either after back to back games.
DFS Notes: This game has the highest rain risk, so pay attention to whatever forecast you favor, with temps in the upper 50s and a 9 mph wind in from center. Assad’s lack of swing and miss kills his value and the same for Manaea’s control problems and inability to get deep in a game. The Mets have the higher run total in this game at 3.63, which seems to have more to do with park and weather than opposing pitcher proficiency. Without enough strikeout upside for either starting pitcher here, Brandon Nimmo (138 wRC+, .219 ISO v RHP since LY) is really the only player I’m looking at here. LHBs have a .342 xwOBA against Assad since last year, which is near 50 points above actual results. Edwin Diaz is out tonight after 39 pitches the last two nights. Hector Neris threw 24 on Monday.
Update 4 EST: Marte has been activated, but is not playing. Taylor and D.J. Stewart are (Bader out). No CHC LU yet. Umpire Carlos Torres leans hitter friendly.
Giants @ Red Sox
Logan Webb still hasn’t struck out more than five in a game this season, but has four straight starts of at least seven innings with a total of three runs combined in those efforts. He’s not missing bats at all (7.9 SwStr%, 91.3 Z-Contact%), but is generating bad swings (26.3 Z-O-Swing%) resulting in tons of weak (six barrels) ground balls (59.7%) with just a 4.6 BB%. Estimators range from a 2.79 FIP to a 4.25 xERA with just one of six barrels leaving the park. It’s unclear how far he can get missing so few bats (it works better with a great defense), but pitch models are still on board (116 Stuff+) with his sweeper (22.5%) and changeup (38.3%) both grading 60 or better (PB).
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 9
B30: 4.21
Cooper Criswell has struck out just seven of 48 batters (6.2 SwStr%), but has walked only two with as many barrels and just a 31.6% hard hit rate thus far. That projects a 3.63 xERA that’s the best of his estimators, Turning to pitch modeling for a better idea with such a small sample, it looks like he could be a positive contributor (105 Stuff+, 2.65 Bot ERA). Criswell throws four pitches at least 20% of the time and PitchingBot gives two (sinker, changeup) grades above 60 with only the cutter slightly below average (48).
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.65
DFS Notes: This is the coldest spot on the board (below 50) with a 9 mph wind in from right. Both teams had Monday off, which means bullpen usage is not an issue, but I believe conditions will significantly impact run production here. In fact, the Red Sox have just a 3.77 team total and I think Webb is playable here on DraftKings only with a high enough floor for $8.3K (nearly $2K more on FD) and enough strikeouts in the Boston lineup to hope for more. Criswell doesn’t miss enough bats, while the Giants have a 4.23 team total and I like the value in guys like Wade (130 wRC+, .166 ISO v RHP since LY) and Lee (109, .085), who has an xwOBA 30 points above actual results against RHP, with the park upgrade, despite the weather.
Update 4:15 EST: Playing a weather under here (8 -108).
Twins @ White Sox
Simeon Woods Richardson has had a very successful start to his 2024 season, striking out 11 of 44 batters with just merely a pair of walks and barrels. Pitch modeling will likely tell us more than estimators at this early point and they’re somewhat split. He carries a 90 Stuff+, but 105 Pitching+, while his slider (27.6%, 47 PB grade) is his only pitch graded below 60 (3.09 Bot ERA). A few other causes for some caution are a 91.2 Z-Contact%, 51 Z-O-Swing% and that his opponents have been the Tigers and White Sox. Most major projection systems still have him around four and a half this year (ERA & FIP).
Opp wRC+: 74 (67 Home)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.29
Mike Soroka has walked more batters than he’s struck out (-3.0 K-BB%) and allowed a home run in every start except his last one, where he allowed two. His best estimator is a 5.90 xFIP and batters from either side of the plate are above a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Soroka’s best pitch has been a 48 grade four-seamer, while carrying an 89 Stuff+ overall.
Opp wRC+: 100 (189 L7days)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.87
SWR’s worst projection is still a run better than Soroka’s best estimator. There are large Minnesota edges everywhere, but I’m going to side with the better F5 price (-150). (Follow RockyJade on ActionNetwork, not necessarily for the plays, but to get info dumps quicker.)
DFS Notes: Temps near 60 with a slight wind in from center, yet the Twins are the top outdoor offense at 4.82 implied runs. With Santana, Miranda and Correa the only three in the projected lineup not above a 100 wRC+ and .185 ISO against RHP since last year and Minnesota bats just pounding the ball lately, I want significant stack exposure here, at least to the top half of the order. The White Sox have been better lately (101 wRC+ L7days) and Woods Richardson has a few caution flags relative to cost. I don’t hate it, but don’t have much love for it either with the White Sox at 3.68 implied runs. If you need a 2B punt Nicky Lopez (76, .069) is just $2.2K out of the leadoff spot. Griffin Jax has thrown twice in a row (28 pitches total).
Update 4:20 EST: No Buxton. 1.54% gain on MIN F5.
Rays @ Brewers
The Rays have just officially posted Tyler Alexander late Monday night. He’s struck out exactly four in each of his five outings. So that’s it. Case closed. Okay, aside from his 18.9 K% (6.6 SwStr%), he’s posted a 3.76 xERA, Alexander’s only estimator below four (4.44 SIERA), despite allowing 9% Barrels/BBE. Conflicting reports on the stuff (87 Stuff+, but 106 Pitching+ and 2.94 Bot ERA). PitchingBot grades all of his offerings above average,
Opp wRC+: 69 (28.2 K%, 12.9 BB%, 15.2 HR/FB…small samples)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.73
The following from Pitcher’s List on Freddy Peralta’s last start…” His four-seamer was terrible. I mean absolutely atrocious with just 18/35 strikes and not having a clue where this thing was going to go.” It happens to the best of us. Estimators are still just a bit above his 3.18 ERA on average, ranging only as high as a 3.86 xERA (12.3% Barrels/BBE). When you’re striking out one-third of the batters you face, the double digit barrel rate hurts less. PitchingBot still gives his heater a 57 grade, while he carries a 112 Stuff+ overall.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.16
DFS Notes: Despite the protected environment, the Rays are the low team on the board (3.26). While I don’t hold Peralta’s last start against him and certainly see him as a top pitcher on this board, I think there are better values than one of the two most expensive arms on the board in a marginal spot. If you have the salary to spend, by all means, go for the rebound here. I have no interest in Tampa Bay bats outside of an affordable Palacios (132 wRC+, .213 ISO against RHP since LY) at the top of the lineup. Alexander costs just $6K and…meh. The Brewers have a 4.24 team total, which actually makes them a top half offense tonight. I like both catchers here, Contreras (181, .269) as a top catcher overall and Sanchez (159, .425) for value at $3K or less, though he may only get a couple of shots at the lefty. 19 pitches for Jason Adam last night, who is listed as the Tampa Bay closer by Fangraphs. Really?
Nationals @ Rangers
Mackenzie Gore comes off starts against the Dodgers and Astros, still maintaining a 3.12 ERA with the worst of his estimators a 4.06 dERA. He’s also sustained a 1.8 mph velocity spike, averaging 96.8 mph on the season, boosting his K-BB from 11.3% to 16.2% to 21.3% in his third major league season. Pitch modeling loves the arsenal as well (2.61 Bot ERA, 117 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+), grading his fastball (54.9%, 27.3 Whiff%) at 68 (PitchingBot) on a scale that only goes up to 80. This is a certified breakout.
Opp wRC+: 96 (26.2 K%)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.73
If Jon Gray’s slider isn’t doing it, it’s not getting done. Realizing his a fastball down 1.4 mph from last season (43 PB grade) is getting pummeled (wOBA & xwOBA > .400), he’s swapped the usage of it (39.1%) with his slider (46.8%), though it’s not that special either (.238 wOBA, but .304 xwOBA & 49 PB grade). A starting pitcher can’t live on sliders alone and as his 4.77 Bot ERA and 81 Stuff+ suggest, there’s not much else there. He’s gotten by because just two of nine barrels (9.3%) have left the park and while he does have a 29.1 K% going for him, he’s also walked 10% of batters, limiting his outings (more than five innings just once) with nothing to show batters a third time through.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 6
B30: 3.90
I wanted to wait for an F5 line and have no clue why one isn’t available, but am willing to grab +132 on the full game for fear it may drop. The Washington bullpen has been fine, but we have two starting pitchers going in different directions, while the Nationals’ offense against RHP has been better than the Rangers against LHP. If it looks like I’m on Washington every day, it’s because I don’t think sportsbooks have caught up to some of the strides players like Gore and Abrams have made.
DFS Notes: This is likely a top three run environment on this slate and rockets to the top on the slight chance they open the roof. Never the less, the Rangers have a 4.64 team total, which I think is too high (as you can probably tell from the above), while the Nationals sit at just 3.86 implied runs. I like Gore in a contrarian way here and he only costs around $8K and would likely go underweight against an offense that has struggled against LHP this year and a projected lineup that includes just four batters above a 100 wRC+ overall in the last 30 days. Some exposure in multi-entry is fine for hedging purposes though. C.J. Abrams (113 wRC+, .202 ISO v RHP since LY & 175 wRC+ L30 days overall) is my top SS play tonight against the .338 wOBA and .354 xwOBA for LHBs against Gray since last year. Winker (139 L30 days) is a top OF value for less than $4K as well. Most of the top relievers for both side were in the 20 pitch range on Sunday, but had Monday off.
Update 4:45 EST: Roof closed. Minimal gain on WAS (0.76%).
Guardians @ Astros
After allowing seven runs to Boston over his last 10.2 innings, Carlos Carrasco is up to a 4.63 ERA that’s within half a run of all his estimators (within one-quarter run of all non-FIP ones). Honestly, after last season, I’m kind of impressed. Batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. He’s walking 12.3% of batters with a 45.1 Hard%, but just 5.6% Barrels/BBE because half his contact has been on the ground. A 96 Stuff+ and Pitching+ is far better than I expected and he even has one above average pitch (54 changeup via PitchingBot).
Opp wRC+: 112 (16.6 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 2.92
Hunter Brown needs to stop giving up runs in order to begin working off that nine run inning in Kansas City. His velocity remains down a mile per hour with a 5.4 K-BB% that’s worse than Carrasco’s, but like his opponent, 51.6% of his contact has been on the ground, resulting in 1.6% Barrels/BBE despite a 45.3% hard hit rate. Yet, Brown is sitting on a 6.14 xERA…that’s still more than three and a half runs better than actual results. He still has a 102 Stuff+ (100 Pitching+), so there’s hope.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.1 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.1
DFS Notes: A neutral run environment with the roof closed, the Astros (5.07) outpace the Guardians (3.93) by more than a full run, despite the ineptness of both starting pitchers. Independent of ownership, I’m in line with Houston bats as my favorite stack and consider Alvarez (169 wRC+, .305 ISO v RHP since LY), Tucker (132, .210) and Altuve (174, .239) three of the top bats on the board and included all but Tucker in my initial single entry attempt. Bregman and Diaz also exceed a 130 wRC+ against RHP since last year, though the former has struggled mightily in 2024 overall. I like Guardians more than the line makers here. LHBs are within four points of a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Brown since last year. Both Naylors and Ramirez stand out above a 120 wRC+ and .175 ISO against RHP since LY. They’re not cheap on DK though, which will likely only serve to further reduce ownership.
Update 4:55 EST: Roof closed. Luperfido debuts in McCormick's spot. Unfortunately only available on FD at min-cost ($2K). He and Singleton give Houston 4 LHBs against a pitcher it doesn't really matter against. Played a F5 over (5.5 +114).
Phillies @ Angels
Spencer Turnbull has now walked nine of his last 65 batters with a 26.2 K%, but 9.3 SwStr%. The caveat is that most of that damage came in one game against the Pirates, but he hasn’t really faced a quality offense yet this season. That said, pitch modeling still believes he’s doing some good work (108 Stuff+, 3.57 Bot ERA). PitchingBot his sinker (10.4%) a 49 grade, but everything else average or better. None of Turnbull’s estimators reach four. In fact, a 3.85 dERA is the only one to reach three and a half and it’s not like he’s in a particularly tough spot tonight.
Opp wRC+: 97 (24.9 K%, 27.9 K% L7days) (Includes Monday stats from this point on.
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.35
Tyler Anderson struck out a season high seven Orioles last time out, but has also now walked 10 of his last 71 batters. A 12.6 SwStr% is the best of his career, but only 0.1 points above last year, when he settled in with an 18.9 K%, so perhaps it doesn’t signify the kind of boost we’d normally expect with a 14.8 CStr% that’s two points below average for starting pitchers. With just 34.5% of his contact on the ground, Anderson has allowed 11.5% Barrels/BBE, despite just a 31% hard hit rate. That still results in a 4.52 xERA that’s the best of his estimators 2.74 runs above his actual results. He’ll get no reprieve from a 93 Stuff+, but does have a 100 Pitching+ despite the walks and PitchingBot still loves the changeup (59 grade).
Opp wRC+: 116 (10.9 BB%)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.43
DFS Notes: The Phillies essentially tie with the Twins for top open air offense tonight (4.84) in likely the most hitter friendly open air environment considering the weather in Boston. Although just neutral in run production, this is a very power friendly park where the Angels have a 4.16 team total. Turnbull has fallen off from his initial production and this may actually be his toughest spot of the season with a cost above $9K that probably keeps me off of him. For the Angels, Mike Trout (147 wRC+, .292 ISO v RHP since LY) is an obvious top bat, but look out for Jo Adell (137, .256), who’s actually the team’s top bat over the last 30 days (169 wRC+), but is still very cheap and now hitting near the top of the order. On the other side, Johan Rojas is the only projected Phillie below a .200 ISO against LHP since last year. While I like Philly bats here, especially Bohm (155, .289) at 3rd base, I generally find myself frustrated when attacking Anderson. Perhaps this time it’ll be different. LHBs (.366 wOBA, .362 xwOBA) are actually 30 points more proficient than RHBs against him since last year. Another favoring factor is that Estevez threw nearly 30 pitches last night and most of the notable arms in the LAA bullpen have been heavily used the last couple of days.
Update 6:10 EST: The big news here is Trout's imminent knee surgery.
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
A pair of major league starts for each of these pitchers in 2024. Both for Knack have been against a surprisingly solid Washington offense. He’s struck out nine and walked four of 44 batters with two of three barrels (10%) leaving the yard. A 40 Future Value arm, who is already 26 years-old with projections maybe a bit below four and a half, estimators around that point through a pair of starts seem about right. Pitch modeling is a bit conflicted with a 107 Stuff+, but PitchingBot only grading the fastball (45%) with at 58, nine points ahead of any other pitch.
Opp wRC+: 83 (but 10 K-BB%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.91
Down 1.8 mph on his sinker and one Scott Boras (last time for this joke), Jordan Montgomery has effective limited hard contact (one barrel, 31% hard hit rate) through his pair of starts, walking just one, but also only striking out only seven of 50 batters with a 6.6 SwStr% and 90.3 Z-Contact%. He’s gotten some help from a .220 BABIP, but has a perfectly competent 100 Stuff+ and even better 105 Pitching+ with a 60 grade sinker (PB) and 57 grade curveball making up 74.5% of his pitches thrown.
Opp wRC+: 119 (17.6%)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.94
DFS Notes; The caveat here is that the roof will be open, increasing the run environment to a 106 run factor on average (Statcast three year), making it the likely top run environment on the park considering Boston weather and Texas likely roof closure. Both teams are at 4.75 implied runs. I think this prohibits both pitchers, especially considering Montgomery’s velocity slippage as he’s still pitching himself into season shape and the lack of strikeout for the Diamondbacks against a still somewhat unknown not so young pitcher. Most Diamondbacks aren’t cheap, though new leadoff man McCarthy (103 wRC+ this season) and Joc Pederson (138 L30 days) are exceptions. Normally, Montgomery would not be a pitcher I’m interested in attacking, though I still consider Mookie (192, .340) a top of the bat board tonight and considering the conditions, would have a decent amount of exposure to Dodger bats tonight. Only Pages in a small sample, Kike and Rojas are below a .200 ISO against LHP since last year among those projected. The top of the Dodger bullpen was lightly used last night.
Pirates @ Athletics
Whatever you want to say about the results, Mitch Keller has been a workhorse for the Pirates, facing at least 24 batters in each start, though only going beyond 100 pitches for the first time last time out in his shortest outing of the season (five innings). He’s getting through batters on few pitches, but not necessarily by getting outs with a 47.7% hard hit rate and just 20.5% strikeout rate. All estimators are below his 5.14 ERA, due to a .333 BABIP and 66.1 LOB%, but velocity has continued a downward trend that started last year (down 1.1 mph from 2023 overall), which has taken a bit of a toll on some pitch modeling metrics (100 Stuff+, but PitchingBot seeing a 49 grade sinker as his worst pitch). The cutter (20.9%, 58 grade) has been his best pitch (0.7 RV/100) and he’s facing the sixth worst offense against that pitch tonight (A’s -1.27 wFC/C).
Opp wRC+: 86 (28.1 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.90
Alex Wood loaded the bases with none out in the first against the Yankees last time out and proceeded to allow a single run over 5.2 innings. With his game velocity averages forming a U shape through five starts, Wood has been more than half a run worse than all estimators with a 6.59 ERA (.430 BABIP), but with a 47.8 Hard% and mere 9.0 K-BB% that only produces a single estimator (4.68 SIERA) below five. Wood has just a 76 Stuff+ without PitchingBot seeing a single pitch even as average.
Opp wRC+: 106 (10.5 BB%, but 26.6 K%)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 4
DFS Notes: This is a perfect spot for Mitch Keller in the $9K range. The A’s have just a 3.52 team total with the Pirates not that much higher 3.92. I hardly trust Wood to work the magic a second straight start, but he’s barely above $6K in a somewhat favorable spot. That said, Lawrence Butler (114 wRC+ L30 days) would be one of my top value bats if at the top of the order again. Langeliers and Rooker both exceed a .240 ISO against RHP since last year. McCutchen, Triolo, Bart and Cruz are projected Pirates below a 110 wRC+ against LHP since last year. I have neither strong interested, nor disdain for Pittsburgh bats here. Tough park. I've been finding it potentially necessary to gravitate towards Wood if I want expensive bats.
Update 6:20 EST: No Cruz against the lefty.
Reds @ Padres
Nick Martinez in a starting role: 16 IP – 75 BF – 13 ER – 2 HR – 2 BB – 12 K
Nick Martinez in a relieving role: 7 IP – 26 BF – 1 ER – 0 HR & BB – 5 K
All four barrels, along with 27 of his 31 hard hit balls have coming when starting. Hard to evaluate without separating, which is not easily done, but pitch modeling seems to like the overall package a lot better than the starting results (106 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+) with a 60 grade cutter (PB) his most frequently thrown pitch (24.1%). It should probably be noted that all three of his starts were at home against NL East teams (WAS, NYM, PHI), as this would represent his first start in a pitcher friendly park.
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.2 K%)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.96
Yu Darvish is not a pain in the neck, but he does return from one, last pitching in game action on April 14th (no rehab starts). His last two against the Dodgers and Cubs were a bit rough (8 IP – 37 BF – 7 ER – 1 HR – 5 BB – 6 K), though considering quality of opponent and the injury, perhaps isn’t something we should hold against him. He’s had some success limiting barrels (four, despite a 50% hard hit rate and 31.3 GB%), though all non-FIP estimators sit above his 4.18 ERA, running as high as a 4.99 dERA. Pitch modeling is conflicted with Stuff+ (98) seeing a drop off, but PitchingBot only grading the curveball (45) below 53, among the seven pitches he’s thrown at least five percent of the time with a max of 22.1% (four-seam).
Opp wRC+: 84 (28.3 K%)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.24
DFS Notes: A very pitcher friendly environment with cool weather (around 60), Darvish may be prohibited in a great matchup by workload. However, he may be a bit underpriced for his normal workload, considering possible injury effects last two times out. It gets a big…meh from me. The Reds (3.3) barely beat out the Rays for lowest run total on the board, leaving my lineup absent of Cincinnati bats, despite Stephenson (80) being the only one projected who sits below a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year. I neither love nor hate attacking Martinez in this environment. He’s clearly been a better reliever the last couple of seasons. The Padres have a 4.2 team total, but Tatis has the top ISO against RHP since last year at just .187. Diaz threw 23 pitches last night.
Braves @ Mariners
Reynaldo Lopez has been tremendous, allowing a total of two runs with at least six innings in each of his four starts. Sure, the .220 BABIP and 97.1 LOB% are going to regress, but he’s struck out 26.1% of batters faced with just two barrels. Even with a 43.3% hard hit rate, a 2.60 xERA is the best of his estimators that stretch only as high as a 3.86 dERA. Interesting to see that pitch modeling is in agreement in a negative way here (97 Stuff+ & Pitching+) with a 45 grade slider (29.8%) and only league average fastball (57.7% via PB).
Opp wRC+: 97 (29.8 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.63
Luis Castillo has hit his stride with three straight quality starts (19 IP – 4 ER – 3 BB – 24 K), even seeing his velocity bump up to last year’s levels last time out (still 1.2 mph down overall). The Braves are in the red against every pitch, but PitchingBot grades everything Castillo throws above average, despite a 98 Stuff+ that upgrades to a 106 Pitching+ with all things considered. A 3.93 dERA is Castillo’s only estimator not at least 0.84 runs below his 4.15 ERA (.359 BABIP) behind a 24 K-BB% that’s 10th among qualified pitchers.
Opp wRC+: 120 (125 Road)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.39
DFS Notes: At 3.61 runs the Braves have the seventh lowest run total on a 24 team board and I’m going for it! Luis Castillo is my top pitcher and cheap enough to be a strong value (at least on DK $8.6K). This is rarely something that will be typed here, but I lack interest in high priced Braves here. Reynaldo Lopez is perhaps more attractive because of the matchup with the Mariners striking out nearly 30% of the time against RHP in a great park to pitch in. I suppose his top two price tag might turn players off. Pitch modeling doesn’t really love him, but soooo many strikeouts. Can you afford him? I’d prefer Castillo, Keller or even Gore for lower cost. Mostly no on Seattle bats with just a 3.5 team run total, except for Josh Rojas (159 wRC+ L30 days), cheaply at the top of the lineup against RHP while Crawford is out.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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