A month into the season now, I like to update league averages and park factors. I use Statcast Three Year Park Factors for the latter and I guarantee that if you give it a look, you’ll find some things that will surprise you. Even if you think you know how parks play (in a weather neutral environment). Remember when they thought Texas played too pitcher friendly with the roof closed? Not so much anymore. Same thing with St Louis being so pitcher friendly.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Yankees @ Orioles
Clarke Schmidt has failed to complete six innings in any of his five starts, but the effort has been more than respectable while he’s in there, striking out 26.9% of the batters he’s faced. His 3.55 ERA matches his SIERA (3.59) and xFIP (3.56), but is only more than half a run off from a 4.55 xERA among his estimators. That’s a full run higher, which is strange because the contact profile isn’t absurd (7.5% Barrels/BBE, 40.3 Hard%). He’s even generated a 17.4 IFFB% on the third of his contact that’s in the air. Pitch modeling has always favored the arsenal with a Bot ERA (3.52) matching actual results and a 111 Stuff+ (103 Pitching+). His cutter, changeup and curveball all grade 59 or better (PB).
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.4 K%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.07
Grayson Rodriguez found out the hard way that even the Angels can pound meatballs. He faced 24 batters and seven of them scored, though he did strike out another seven with just one walk. That gives him a 20.7 K-BB% mark on the season, but there are some causes for concern in the contact profile (10.3% Barrels/BBE, 50 Hard%). It’s not an issue he had last season and could be gone in a couple of starts at this point in the season. As such, a 4.70 dERA (using for DRA now) and 4.64 xERA are in line with his 4.45 ERA, though additional estimators are about a run lower. The talent is immense (2.27 Bot ERA, 118 Stuff+), but he still needs to refine his usage of it on a more consistent basis.
Opp wRC+: 123 (9.3 K-BB%)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.32
Update 3:55 EST: Temps in the 80s, Grisham in for Verdugo (paternity), slight line movement towards NYY.
Cardinals @ Tigers
Steven Matz has been blistered for 12 runs over his last 9.1 innings by the A’s and Diamondbacks. This includes a 4.3 K-BB% and four barrels (12.1%) with just eight ground balls. The crazy thing is his sinker velocity spiked last season to not only it’s highest single game average of the year, but maybe his in two years. On the season a 4.80 xFIP is his best non-FIP estimator. Pitching Bot still likes the arsenal (3.33 Bot ERA, 54 sinker grade, 60 changeup), but Stuff+, not so much (87).
Opp wRC+: 84 (85 Home)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.13
After I mentioned that Kenta Maeda was throwing non-competitive fastballs, his velocity jumped back above 90 mph for only the second start this season. It was enough to shut out the Rays over five innings, striking out five of 20. It doesn’t seem to be something you can trust though. With a favorable contact profile (32.4 Hard%) to go with a meager 10 K-BB%, Maeda’s best estimator is a 4.46 xERA that’s exactly a run and a half better than actual results. It’s a bit unfortunate that all seven of his barrels have been home runs, but nobody thinks he’s throwing quality offerings up there (43 grade fastball, 90 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 88 (81 Road)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.96
Nationals @ Marlins
Facing the Dodgers in back to back outings could not have been easy. After shutting them out over six innings in the initial start, Jake Irvin was smacked for six runs in the rematch. He’s got a solid 14.6 K-BB% on the season and his 9.2 SwStr% is an acceptable range for his 20.4 K%. The 4.93 xERA (45.8 Hard%) and 4.79 DRA tell a different story than other estimators below four with an ERA (4.55) that sits right in between. Pitch modeling thinks the stuff to be either slightly subpar (94 Stuff+) or better than the results (3.57 Bot ERA, 51 four-seam grade, 56 curveball).
Opp wRC+: 83 (73 Home)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.69
Trevor Rogers has had his own issues with Atlanta (seven runs, five earned over 10.2 IP) and dropping velocity since the season started (93.2 mph, 92.1, 91.9, 92.7, 91.7). He’s locating well though, and has an 18.6 K-BB% over his last three starts (4.1% first two). However, all five of his barrels have come in his last three starts. There’s a tradeoff I guess. All non-FIP estimators are less than a half run below his 4.10 ERA with none reaching four. Also like Irvin, Rogers has a 3.70 Bot ERA, but 92 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 74
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.21
I must be either the only one buying into the Nationals or not buying into the Marlins. Rogers has better estimators, but Irvin better pitch modeling. Neither offenses impresses, but WSH is over a smaller sample against LHBs and with a 105 Road wRC+. The WSH bullpen has estimators half a run better and Miami has the worst defense in the league (and it’s not even close). They shouldn’t be laying money against many teams/pitchers in this league. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network, not necessarily for the plays, but quicker info drops.)
Update 4:15: 10c or 2% gain on Washington overnight.
Royals @ Blue Jays
Jonathan Bowlan threw three innings for the Royals last year, two in his only start. He’s a 40 Future Value arm (Fangraphs) with a good slider and above average command plus a fastball that should play, but lacking a third pitch. The 27 year-old has a 19 K-BB% over four AAA starts, well above his 8.8% mark over 67 innings at the same level last year.
Opp wRC+: 91 (20.8 K%)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.51
Yariel Rodriguez has not gone before four innings in any of his three starts with pitch counts of 68, 83 and 69. What’s more, his velocity has gone from 95.5 mph to 94.7 to 92.9. After striking out 13 of his first 32 with a 12.6 SwStr%, he struck out just two of 20 Royals with a 5.8 SwStr%. PitchingBot gives him a 52 grade fastball and 59 slider (3.33 Bot ERA), but Stuff+ is not as optimistic (97).
Opp wRC+: 98 (18.7 K%)
DEF: 7
B30: 4.66
DFS Notes: General notes about the slate, four of nine environments have the roof option (Arizona has already stated it will be open on their website). Despite a lack of pitching friendly conditions in addition to normal run environment, only one team (Dodgers) exceeds five runs with four more above four and a half and then a half run gap to 4.25. If you’ve read the game write ups already, you probably know which pitchers I’m targeting, but it’ll be interesting to see if players go back to pitchers in Chicago after that same matchup failed to come through as chalk pitchers last week.
A six percent increase to offense in an otherwise neutral environment should the roof be open here, the largest effect would be in increasing RH home run factor from 100 to 115, so keep an eye on that situation. The Blue Jays are one of the top offenses on the board (4.73 implied runs) with the Royals near the bottom (3.77). Lacking knowledge about Bowlan and only Danny Jansen reaching a 120 wRC+ against RHP since last year among projected Toronto batters, I’m looking for value in this lineup more than loading up on Blue Jays. Jansen, Turner and Varsho all have a 145+ wRC+ overall this year. Nobody else reaches 100. Cavan Biggio (106 wRC+, .144 ISO v RHP since LY) is close (97) and second base is tough. He could help you get to Mookie at SS. On the other side, it doesn’t look like they’re going to let Yariel get to five innings, which torches his value against a decent offense. With RHBs owning a .367 wOBA, .401 xwOBA against him, I’m not ruling out RH KC bats. LHBs have a .350 wOBA, but .285 xwOBA. Also, Romano and Garcia are both off two straight days with at least a total of 30 pitches over the two games.
Update 4:20: Roof closed. Schneider in for Bichette.
Cubs @ Mets
Despite velocity down 1.3 mph, Jameson Taillon has pitched well against the Marlins (22.2 K-BB%, one run) and survived the Astros (7.7 K-BB%, two runs). Pitch modeling is not enamored with the stuff (93 Stuff+), but likes the way he uses it (105 Pitching+). Taillon has a massive split since last season with LHBs above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA, but RHBs below .290.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: -4
B30: 4.28
Luis Severino is not back to his old form, but does have estimators tightly packed from a 3.31 FIP to a 3.64 dERA. However, the problem is a 7.8 SwStr% that doesn’t fit the 22.4 K%, while his 16.6 CStr% is league average. He only has one game above a 7.8 SwStr% as well (10.1% in Cincinnati second game). Pitch modeling gives him some support with a 102 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+. We’ll have to see how this eventually plays out, but at least the hard hit rate has dropped seven points from last year and the barrel rate nearly as much too.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -4
B30: 3.16
DFS Notes: In the 60s with humidity near 80% and a nine mph wind right to left should leave little weather effect on this game. Still, one of the most negative run environments in the game, the Cubs have just a 3.41 team total, barely ahead of the White Sox. A Cubs lineup without Bellinger and Suzuki is beatable, but that SwStr% from Severino would have me going underweight. The Mets are middle of the board (4.09). I have Nimmo (136 wRC+, .214 ISO v RHP since LY) at the top of my wish list in this lineup, but see D.J. Stewart (148, .289) as a potentially great value should Marte remain out. J.D. Martinez (131, .294) is pretty affordable too. The Mets had to use Diaz and Garrett for 20 pitches each on Sunday, but neither had pitched in the previous three days. The Chicago pen is well rested, though just not that effective.
Update 2:30 EST: Mets first LU out and Mendoza is jamming in RHBs against Taillon because they're below a .290 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, while LHBs are above .360. We get Vientos and Taylor, but no DJ Stewart. Also appears Mets are opting for Nido's defense above...well, whatever Narvaez gives them on a more consistent basis.
Twins @ White Sox
Despite maintaining his velocity 1.4 mph above last year, pitch modeling systems are split on Joe Ryan with Stuff+ giving him a 93 grade (though 105 Pitching+), but PitchingBot (2.82 ERA) seeing a 63 grade heater and 54 splitter. Ryan has three quality starts on the year, but has allowed three runs in all of them (two unearned). Yet, a 29.3 K-BB% is such that is a 3.31 dERA is his only estimator within half a run of his 3.45 ERA, even with 11% Barrels/BBE. The White Sox hit two of those barrels in his last start, both of them leaving the park.
Opp wRC+: 73 (64 Home)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.34
Pitch modeling still loves him (cutter/slider/four-seam all 60+ PitchingBot grades, 110 Stuff+), but Garrrett Crochet has been pummeled for 17 runs and four home runs over his last 11.2 innings, despite holding a 20.7 K-BB% and only allowing a single barrel! If I’ve ever seen a pitcher in line for favorable regression, thy name is Crochet. His SiERA, xFIP and xERA are all more than three runs below his 6.37 ERA. None even reach three. Balls that aren’t even barrels won’t continue to leave the park at this pace and the strand rate will improve from 55.9%.
Opp wRC+: 126 (175 L7days)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.85
Despite what I wrote and believe about Crochet above, Ryan is still the superior pitcher where the other aspects of this engagement (offense, defense, bullpen) all strongly favor Minnesota. They should probably be at least a two to one favorite.
DFS Notes: Temps in the 60s with 13 mph wind out to left center probably offsets? I’ve always thought of this park as power friendly, but Statcast is calling it more neutral over the last three years. Joe Ryan is the top pitcher on the board and it’s not even close. The White Sox have the lowest run total (3.36) on the board. Being a bit home run prone and slightly worse against RHBs, you could pick out a bat or two here for contrarian purposes, but the highest wRC+ in the projected LU against RHP since last year is .174 (Jimenez). The Twins have 4.14 team total and now 189 team wRC+ over the last week. I’m not adverse to using Crochet in general, but this offense is scary to go against right now. I really like Ryan Jeffers (162, .276) as my top catcher (189 wRC+ this year). No other projected Minnesota bat reaches a 120 wRC+ against LHP since last year. I wish Crochet ($8.6K DK/FD) were a little cheaper.
Update 4:30: Correa back.
Rays @ Brewers
The Rays have succeeded in increasing Ryan Pepiot’s velocity 0.5 mph, but not in getting him to command his arsenal better yet. All the stuff in the world (115 Stuff+), but a 9.1 BB% and 10.1% Barrels/BBE to go along with a 28.2 K% (76.6 Z-Contact%). At the extremes, Pepiot has a 3.35 xERA, but 4.54 dERA. Other estimators are much closer to his 3.77 ERA, but there is still progress to be made here.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.73
Bryse Wilson faced 19 batters in his second start, walking and striking out three each. I guess they’re trying to make this a thing now. A 3.82 SIERA (including bullpen work) is his only estimator below four. I’m assuming pitch modeling (94 Stuff+) will like him even less in a starting role. One fortunate aspect of this matchup might be Tampa Bay’s lack of LHBs (.360 wOBA, .380 xwOBA v Wilson since last year, RHBs .239, .272).
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 6
B30: 3.89
DFS Notes: This is a negative run environment with the roof closed (94 run factor). Who knew? Both teams at 4.25 runs. Siri is the only player in the projected Tampa lineup above a 24 K% against RHP since last year. Wilson has allowed a .360 wOBA and .380 xwOBA against LHBs since last year. Palacios (134 wRC+, .216 ISO v RHP since LY) is a top outfield bat for me again and one of the top values on FD ($2.6K). He, Rortvedt and Paredes all exceed a 160 wRC+ this season. I like Pepiot, but think he may be too expensive here. That said, I’m not very high on any Brewers against him. Uribe threw 31 pitches on Sunday and is the only bullpen arm of concern on either side (in terms of usage).
Update 4:50: Roof closed. Rays just jamming in any LHB they can find against Wilson (Shenton, Goodrum) and it's not a terrible idea.
Phillies @ Angels
Cristopher Sanchez’s sinker was up to 94.8 mph last time out, a single game average record by 0.4 mph. He kept 83.3% of his contact on the ground in that start (67.2% season), but only struck out three of 18 Reds (4.1 SwStr%) with as many walks. The sinker gets a 57 PB grade and he throws it half the time, it just doesn’t miss bats (11.5 Whiff%). None the less, his changeup and slider do. Enough often for a 25.5 K%, but just 15.5 K-BB%. A 3.48 dERA is the only estimator more than one-third of a run above his 2.96 ERA. One potential issue is that RHBs own a .324 wOBA and .317 xwOBA against him since last year, while LHBs are below .200, but he’s unlikely to face any.
Opp wRC+: 105 (10.3 BB%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.65
Griffin Canning has struck out more than four in just one of five starts with reduced velocity (1.7 mph) and breaking balls that just don’t seem to have the same bite (whiff rate on slider and curveball down). He’s allowed 9.9% Barrrels/BBE and a 4.44 SIERA is his only estimator below four and a half. The four-seamer (34.5%) gets a 33 grade with an overall 5.10 Bot ERA and 85 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -3
B30: 4.55
DFS Notes: Around 70 with an 8 mph wind out to center, this is a run neutral, but very power friendly environment. The Phillies have the second highest run total on the board (4.82). Beware that Canning has a reverse split (RHBs .349 wOBA, .318 xwOBA since LY, LHBs .306, .314) that Statcast mostly nullifies. Phillies aren’t cheap, but are certainly viable here, if you can afford them. Schwarber, Turner, Harper and Marsh have the four highest wRC+ marks (> 115) and ISOs (> .180) in the projected lineup against RHP since last year. The Angels have a 4.18 team total and I was surprised to see only three in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ this season. Sanchez is a consideration for me because this lineup should give him some strikeouts, but his own lack of upside, along with his platoon issues are a concern in this park.
Update 6:30: Stubbs in for Realmuto. The Angels are calling that a lineup. Ok, then.
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
James Paxton has a 2.61 ERA. His fastball velocity is down 1.7 mph (93.5) and he’s still throwing it 65.4% of the time, but still has a 2.61 ERA. Paxton has walked six more batters than he’s struck out (-6.7 K-BB%) with 11 walks and just two strikeouts over his last two starts, but has a 2.61 ERA. Almost half of his contact is above a 95 mph EV (49.2%) with a 2.61 ERA. A 5.15 dERA is Paxton’s only estimator not more than double his 2.61 ERA. James Paxton has a 41 grade 93.5 mph fastball that he throws 65.4% of the time with a 73 Stuff+ (86 Pitching+) and a 2.61 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 142 (16.2 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.04
Tommy Henry’s 13.4 K-BB% is Cy Young worthy next to Paxton. He has allowed eight barrels (10.3%) and has just an 82 Stuff+, but 100 Pitching+, while PitchingBot only grades one of his three major offerings ( > 10%) below average (45 changeup). All estimators are below his 5.55 ERA, ranging from a 3.80 xFIP to 5.16 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 114 (19.3 K%)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 4.17
DFS Notes: Yup. This is my prime offensive spot. As mentioned, the Dodgers are the top offense on the board and I think the Diamondbacks might be undervalued at 4.72 runs. Corbin Carroll (98) and Kevin Newman (106) are the only two projected Arizona bats below a 120 wRC+ against LHP since last year. I’m jamming everyone except those two in multi-entry, but even surprised myself to be absent a single D’Back in my first single entry draft…so far. Batters from both sides between a .322 and .353 wOBA and xwOBA against Henry since last year. Kike, Taylor, Rojas the only three in the Dodger lineup projections below 120 against LHP since LY. Pages (138 overall wRC+) may be the top value. I’m jamming Mookie (193 wRC+, .344 ISO v LHP since LY), Shohei (126, .243) and Freddy (155, .228) everywhere I can. Open roof increases run environment from 96 to 102 on average. Ginkel and Mantply on back to back days, but neither exceed 15 pitches in any outing. Phillies 24 pitches on Saturday.
Update 6 EST: Large gain on the Diamondbacks F5 (4.73%).
Pirates @ Athletics
Bailey Falter has allowed four runs over his last 23 innings. His fastball is elevated, both in velocity (0.6 mph) and location. He’s throwing it 57% of the time with a 22.4 Whiff% and .238 xwOBA. However, it grades just average (50 PItchingBot) with other offerings aside form a sinker he’s thrown just 32 times all graded below average and a 75 Stuff+ overall. With just a 17.3 K%, a 34.2 Hard% (3.97 xERA) and .176 BABIP are doing most the heavy lifting. All other estimators are above four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 84 (18.4 K-BB%)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.89
Joe Boyle sounds like a character from Ozark, but pitches like one from the movie Major League. His live arm produces a 56 grade slider and overall 108 Stuff+, but with just a 42 grade fastball (56.4%), 9.3 SwStr% that matches Falter’s and 15.5 BB%. On a positive note, he’s allowed just two barrels with a 4.31 xERA his only estimator below four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.49
The A’s have been playing some good baseball. Boyle’s estimators aren’t much worse than Falter’s and his pitch modeling is better, while the Pirates don’t have an edge in any other aspect of this game. Why are they favored on the road? Miller didn’t pitch on Sunday and should be available Monday night.
DFS Notes: Firmly negative run environment (94) and just as tough on power with temps around 60, but 10 mph out to right center. Both teams are within a quarter run of four. Falter is cheap enough to be worth an SP2 shot on DK ($6.5K). The Pirates haven’t done much damage in recent weeks, but if rostering Boyle for the same price, don’t be surprised if he walks the park. He’s a highly volatile arm with some upside. Reynolds (111 wRC+, .207 ISO v RHP since LY) and Suwinski (109, .239 ISO) are fine here, but not at the top of my list. I do really like Tyler Nevin (154, .231) for less than $2.5K. He, along with Rooker and Ruiz all exceed a 120 wRC+ this year with Toro the only other projected Oakland bat reaching 100.
Update 6:40: Looking at the pitchers on this slate all afternoon, I have to give more serious consideration to these two. Cruz up to third spot. Gain 1.78% on A's overnight.
Reds @ Padres
Nick Lodolo is coming off the worst of his three starts, striking out just four of 24 Phillies, walking three with as many runs over five innings. The overall body of work so far includes a 22.9 K-BB% and just three barrels (7%) with a 61 grade fastball (PB) that he’s throwing 46.1% of the time and 101 Stuff+ overall. Non-FIP estimators (no home runs) run from a 3.02 SIERA to a 3.99 dERA.
Opp wRC+: 92 (7.2 K-BB%)
DEF: -5
B30: 4.16
Matt Waldron has allowed exactly one run in three of his five starts, including Coors last time out, but nine in 8.2 innings in his only two home starts to the Blue Jays and Cardinals. The knuckleballer (sometimes) has a competitive 11.5 K-BB%, allowing barrels on 10% of his contact. Pitch modeling doesn’t really do well with knuckleballs, but Waldron has just an 86 Stuff+ with all estimators above his 3.96 ERA, running as high as a 4.92 dERA, but just a 3.49 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 86 (27.8 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.83
DFS Notes: In a pitcher friendly park (90 run factor) under pitcher friendly conditions (low 60s, little wind), Waldron may be my favored low price pitcher against a lineup with a ton of Ks. Both teams sit at 3.75 runs. I know I probably should like Lodolo in this park, but the plate discipline numbers for San Diego and the price scare me off. Stephenson is the only projected Red below a .160 ISO against RHP since LY, but you have to consider their home park here. LHBs do have a .324 wOBA and .358 ISO against Waldron since last year too though, so he is high risk and I would have some exposure to Reds in multi. RHBs have a .398 wOBA, but .327 xwOBA against Lodolo too since last year. Again, remember the park he mostly pitches in, but there are five in the projected SD LU exceeding a 135 wRC+ and .200 ISO since LY (Kim, Machado, Rosario, Campusano, Tatis). Eguy costs $2.6K or less and is a fine 3B punt play IMO. Pagan, De Los Santos and Peralta all threw at least 18 pitches for their respective pens on Sunday.
Update 6:20: No CES for Reds. Padres have switched the order around, but Campusano only player missing. This line may have dropped a bit too much. I'm kind of borderline on SDP -106. They have edges everywhere except starting pitching.
Braves @ Mariners
Against Miami, Max Fried has thrown 15.1 innings with a single run and walk plus 10 strikeouts. He’s allowed 13 earned runs over his other 10 innings, striking out seven with eight walks. What do we believe? It’s not the 4.97 ERA, even with the 16.5 K%. The 9.7 SwStr% suggests a bit more, while estimators pack into a tight 3.48 xERA to 3.95 FIP range. He’s thrown six different pitches at least three percent of the time, but less than 20% plus a four-seamer 30% of the time. An overall 96 Stuff+ is not what we’re used to, but PitchingBot (3.85 ERA) doesn’t give him a below average grade on any of the offerings.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.3 K%)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.49
Not so much from a run prevention standpoint, but Bryce Miller has struggled peripherally against some of the better offenses he’s faced (nine strikeouts and seven walks against the Cubs and Rangers), striking out 26.2% of batters overall, but allowing 15.5% Barrels/BBE too. Just three of those seven barrels have left the park in his favorable home park. He’s down to 41.1% four-seam usage, utilizing the splitter (20.5%) to miss more bats (31.4 Whiff%). The secondary pitch gets a 64 PitchingBot grade, while the arsenal receives a 108 Stuff+ overall. That said, estimators range from a 3.85 SIERA to a 4.74 xERA. The barrels and walks are problematic once the .182 BABIP and 95.2 LOB% break, but there’s still enough talent to change that.
Opp wRC+: 127 (134 Road)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.65
DFS Notes: Roof open or closed, this is the most negative run environment in baseball (85/86 RF). It’s enough to knock the Braves down to 4.02 and the Mariners half a run lower. I don’t know what to do with Max here. I might mimic ownership in multi. It is a nice spot for him, though the Mariners are a tougher offense than the Marlins, the only one he’s proven he can handle this year. He’s cheap enough on FD to be a top value tonight, if he pitches like the previous version of Max Fried. With Urias and Raleigh the only guys above a 100 wRC+ in the Seattle projected lineup (actually France is at 103 too), I may still throw a Seattle stack or two in multis, but have very little interest otherwise. Actually none. The Braves are the fifth best offenses against four-seamers (0.47 wFA/C) according to Statcast and just as good against sinkers. I don’t think you can pay $8.9K to go against Atlanta, even in this park with a guy who’s throwing fastballs 75% of the time. It does temper my desire for expensive Braves, but you may never get this offense at lower ownership, which is certainly a consideration. LHBs have a .358 wOBA and .388 xwOBA against Miller since last year. Iglesias has thrown 27 pitches over the last two days.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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