Got taken away from it for a bit. Lot of work to do on Saturday, but I'm committed to the bit.
All stats are through Thursday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Dodgers @ Blue Jays
Of the two pitchers in this game, one has a 2.94 SIERA, 2.77 xFIP, 2.56 FIP, 3.41 DRA and 2.89 xERA. That would be Yusei Kikuchi. Yes, Tyler Glasnow's estimators are actually better, but only slightly and that's not the point here. It's that Kikuchi (22.5 K-BB%) has been really good. Almost as good as Glasnow (24.3 K-BB%). Glasnow has a 105 Pitching+, Kikuchi 104.
Opp wRC+: 99 (20.2 K%)/109 (20.6 K%)
DEF: 0/9
B30: 4.07/4.56
I think were' going to see this line drop from +138 by tomorrow. Apparently, that has absolutely no correlation to winning the game, but I think it's going to drop, for whatever that's worth. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network, not necessarily for the plays, but to get the info dumps quicker.)
Update 2:15 EST: Roof closed. Line did drop substantially (3.43%) to the point I no longer find any value on Toronto at their current price of +120.
Athletics @ Orioles
J.P. Sears has allowed just one run over his last 17.1 IP, but with just a 10.9 K-BB%, though he did look best last time out against the Yankees, striking out seven of 21 with a 14.3 SwStr%. Amazingly, his velocity has been down about a mph in these last three starts as compared to the first two. Occasionally, it’s a concentrated effort, but you can’t trust a pitcher or team to tell you that. Pitch modeling likes what Sears has become (3.13 Bot ERA, 103 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 135 (133 Home, 140 L7days)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.53
With all non-FIP estimators above four and a half (nine barrels, two home runs because Baltimore now kills right-handed power), pitch modeling does not like Cole Irvin (84 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 91 (86 Road, 87 L7days)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.23
Update 2:30 EST: Topping out at a 7.4 SwStr% in his first start, I'm wavering on considering Irvin's strikeout prop (u4.5 -142). Four in OAK LU > 27 K% v LHP since LY, but the other five don't exceed 21.1%. Also considering a F5 over (4.5 -104), considering that Sears is beating his estimators and Irvin is in line with his against a great offense with a terrible defense behind him, but Sears's latest performance and pitch modeling is keeping me off.
Cardinals @ Mets
Sonny Gray has struck out 23 of 64 batters with a single walk and barrel. PitchingBot (2.73 ERA) grades every pitch average or better. He has just a 97 Stuff+, but 109 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 102 (10.5 K-BB%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.20
Adrian Houser has walked nine of his last 45 batters and now has a -2.2 K-BB% to go along with 9.7% Barrels/BBE. He’s throwing his sinker 43.2% of the time. It has a 10.8 Whiff% and 39 PitchingBot grade. The Cardinals have been the third best offense against sinkers (0.73 wSI/C).
Opp wRC+: 86
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.26
There is a 36.5 K-BB% difference between the K-BB% of the two starting pitchers. Cards F5 (-135) may be my largest play of the year so far.
Update 2:45 EST: Two for two in CLV with a 3.49% gain on STL F5 up to -156 now. Marte and Bader sit in favor of Stewart and Taylor. Slight defensive downgrade and increase to average NYM strikeout rate, putting them around league average with this lineup.
Reds @ Rangers
It was precisely here where I was taken away from it for almost an hour, so we’ll have to speed this up. Hunter Green (20.7 K-BB%) doesn’t have a single estimator within half a run of his 4.55 ERA (.343 BABIP), including a 2.54 xERA (just three barrels and a 33.3% hard hit rate). He still has a 28 Stuff-Pitching+ (a stat I just totally made up), which means he hasn’t entirely figured out what to do with it yet, but those numbers are 134 and 106!!
Opp wRC+: 114 (18.5 K%)
DEF: -6
B30: 4.05
Michael Lorenzen has walked eight of 44 batters with a 48% hard hit rate, somehow turning that into just three earned runs in 11 innings. He has a 540 Bot ERA, 93 Stuff+ and even worse 91 Pitching+ through two starts.
Opp wRC+: 86 (28.1 K%)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.96
Update 3 EST: Roof closed. No Seager or Garcia for the Rangers.
Cubs @ Red Sox
The Cubs have yet to name a starting pitcher. I’m using Ben Brown as a place holder.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.15
Josh Winckowski has been forced into a starting role, but his numbers project for relief. Yet, he still has a 4.79 xERA this year.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -3
B30: 3.62
Update 3:10 EST: Brown (3.61 SIERA/5.90 xERA/110 Stuff+) is the correct guess. 60 degrees, 11 mph wind in from RF.
Nationals @ Marlins
Mitchell Parker came out of nowhere (35+ Future Value grade via Fangraphs) to strikeout 12 of 43 Dodgers and Astros with now walks, but four barrels and a 48.4 Hard%. He’s always been able to miss bats, but was never able to find the plate in the minors. Major projection systems still have him above four and a half. He throws a 92 mph fastball that PitchingBot has given a 56 grade to with an overall 4.03 Bot ERA. The other major pitch modeling system counters with a 90 Stuff+, but 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 46 (5.9 BB%, 6.1 HR/FB)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.80
Edward Cabrera has never met a batter he couldn’t walk, which is why everyone was excited when he walked just one of 22 Giants with 10 strikeouts in his first start. He still had a 39.6 Zone#, but 90.9 F-Strike%. He followed that up by walking three of 25 Cubs (seven strikeouts). Since it’s pretty hard to find a place where Cabrera has pitched more than a few innings with a single digit walk rate, it’s kind of hard to trust that he’s figured it out until he proves it over several starts.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: -13
B30: 4.11
I can accept that both pitchers may be volatile, but how the hell is the team with a 46 wRC+ against LHP (I don’t care the sample size. It’s been a month.) and the worst defense in baseball a moderate favorite here?
Astros @ Rockies
It ain’t Coors. It’s worse. Ronel Blanco has just a 6.8 K-BB% since his no-hitter. The contact profile has remained pristine (two barrels, 15 hard hit balls in total), but is that sustainable? Probably not. Pitch modeling sees a perfectly average pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 81 (26.7 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 4.16
Cal Quantrill has a 2.5 K-BB%. His Stuff+ and Pitching+ numbers are the same as Blanco’s though (between 96 and 99).
Opp wRC+: 104 (17.4 K%)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.16
This game is priced as if Blanco is better than an average pitcher and the Houston offense is still elite. These teams even have the same bullpen estimators and defensive numbers. Too much for a neutral site game.
Update 3:45 EST: Elevated 2K miles above Coors, I have no idea how to compensate for the environmental effect here and won't even try. Gained just 0.5% on the overnight line for the Rockies.
Royals @ Tigers
A sub-.200 BABIP and 86.1 LOB% is going to make surface stats look good and that’s how Brady Singer has generated a 2.76 ERA. To be fair, a 15.5 K-BB% is above his career rate and he’s kept 54.7% of his contact on the ground. However, he’s faced the White Sox twice and Twins in his five starts and got smoked by Toronto. Still trying to get by on two pitches (sinker/slider), LHBs have a .335 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against him since last year. An 85 Stuff+ and 94 Pitching+ suggest the good times could be coming to an end, even as he faces another AL Central creampuff offense.
Opp wRC+: 86 (83 Home & L7days) (All stats from here on include Friday.)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.93
Casey Mize has become a pitch modeling darling (115 Stuff+, 3.31 Bot ERA) with all three pitches he throws more than 10% of the time grading 52 or better (PB), including a 60 four-seamer. Mize is looking for a third straight quality start. With nearly half his contact on the ground (49.3%), he still hasn’t found strikeout proficiency (17.8 K%, 7.6 SwStr%, but has kept the ball in the park with just one of five barrels leaving it. This is why all non-FIP estimators are more than a run above his 2.95 ERA, climbing as high as a 4.39 ERA. A league average pitcher is better than what we’ve seen so far from Mize, but there’s still work to do.
Opp wRC+: 102 (19.3 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.75
Update 4 EST: Temps in the 70s offset by strong wind in from RF.
Rays @ White Sox
Both Aaron Civale and the Rays are coming off stinkers in their latest efforts. The Rays after being blown out by the White Sox last night (when the White Sox win by more than a couple of runs, it’s a blowout) and Civale with five strikeouts, but also as many walks and runs at Yankee Stadium. While he’s still carrying a career high 26.7 K%, beware that it exists with just a 9.2 SwStr% that’s only slightly below his career rate (9.8%). So, despite estimators ranging from a 3.04 xERA to 4.24 DRA, it’s my contention that Aaron Civale is still a league average pitcher, which a 4.38 Bot ERA and 100 Stuff+ support.
Opp wRC+: 72 (60 Home)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.08
Written here before his second start…”White Sox fans might be excited about Jonathan Cannon, who allowed just a single run on three hits to the Royals over five innings in his debut, but that should probably be tempered some. He struck out just three with a 6.3 SwStr% tossing 39 sinkers that averaged 92.6 mph mostly right down the middle and as many ground balls (six) as hard contacted ones. Fangraphs gives him a 45 Future Value grade with no stand out characteristics and projections above four and a half from every major projection system.” The tempering would have served well, as the Twins got to Cannon for six runs in his second start. He did strike out five of 20 batters, but with just a 6.7 SwStr%, three barrels and 71.4% hard hit rate.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: -3
B30: 4.63
DFS Notes: For the slate on the whole, there aren’t too many deleterious effects and I think some of these run totals might be a bit low, though there really aren’t any extremely positive run environments either. It’ll be interesting to see (and I can’t predict) if people are going to jump off the attacking the White Sox bandwagon after they didn’t supply the expected results against top pitching the last few nights. There may be some more interesting, lesser priced arms on the board, and as such, there are a lot of ways you can go. Offensive targets seem more set than pitching ones with just two teams above four and a half implied runs and only the Rays above five. Let’s start in Chicago though.
In the 70s with a solid near 15 mph wind whipping across the field though. Michael Kopech threw 26 pitches last night. Tampa Bay top relievers have all had at least two days off. Civale is fine may be too expensive here, forcing players off of him, though, at 3.39 runs, the White Sox are still the second lowest team on the board. If you want to punt a position, Nicky Lopez (78 wRC+ v RHP since last year) is $2.3K or less against a pitcher who has been average against LHBs (.302 wOBA, .309 xwOBA since LY), likely from the leadoff spot. Probably not enough Ks to consider Cannon (Siri only one in projected LU above 24.1% v RHP since LY). The Rays are the top team on the board and affordably so. LHBs have a .470 wOBA, .464 xwOBA in Cannon’s two starts with RHBs below .300. The problems here are a trustable sample and that the Rays only have two LHBs in their regular LU. Richie Palacios (118, .205) is one of my top bats on the board and first player inserted into my lineup (just $2.6K FD). Ben Rortvedt (152 wRC+ this year) costs $3K or less.
Update 4:35 EST: The Rays have jammed another LHB into the lineup against Cannon. It's the min-priced Austin Shenton, hitting cleanup, at the expense of Yandy Diaz. Lineup decisions/ (though it would take Olson out of the mix)
Yankees @ Brewers
Pitch modeling (114 Stuff+) and a 2.70 ERA suggest that Carlos Rodon might be back. PitchingBot concurs with both a fastball (58) and slider (53) graded above average. However, a 7.8 K-BB% and 9.5 SwStr% with a 53 Z-O-Swing% that’s day’s worst by four points throws fire all over that notion. Even with just three barrels allowed, a 3.73 xERA is more than a run above with contact neutral estimators beginning at a 4.84 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 78 (25.9 K%, but a 14.1 BB% and 16.7 HR/FB)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.93
Joe Ross is slightly the opposite of Rodon with just a 91 Stuff+ grade, but slightly better underlying numbers. It’s not in the 9.9 K-BB%, but 50% ground ball rate that estimators pretty much average out to support his 4.05 ERA. PithcingBot grades both his main pitches (sinker/slider) as average offerings. Despite not having a legitimate third pitch to handle LHBs, they’ve only managed a .281 wOBA and .300 xwOBA against him so far.
Opp wRC+: 114 (9.9 K-BB%)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.05
DFS Notes: A protected environment isn’t as important tonight with weather warming in many places. Extra innings, surprisingly resulted in very little top reliever usage. Perhaps because Milwaukee top arms were all used the night before. Both teams at 4.25 run totals here. I have no interest in two pitch Ross against a tough lineup or Rodon with estimators conflicting with pitch modeling. RHBs (probably all nine Brewers) have a .345 wOBA and .336 xwOBA against Rodon since last year and while he’s not still probably that bad, I really like Gary Sanchez here (165 wRC+, .435 ISO v LHP since LY) for $3K or less if you can’t pay up for William Contreras (183, .272). Left-handed Yankees, and, of course, particularly Juan Soto (172, .275) are my targets here. Note that while most of Anthony Rizzo’s (97, .150) issues last year were blamed on the concussion, he’s off to a poor start (91 wRC+) in 2024.
Update 5 EST: Roof is closed. There's a hotline. The number is one the website. I think I'm the only one who calls it.
Guardians @ Braves
Is it concerning that 17 of Tanner Bibee’s 26 strikeouts have come in just two starts against the Twins and A’s? The other seven have come against the Red Sox, White Sox (just two) and A’s again, so it’s not like good offenses are giving him trouble. The overall 12.6 K-BB% is merely league average, if that, with estimators ranging from a 4.19 SIERA to a 5.62 DRA. Having already allowed eight barrels (11.1%), I shudder to think what the Braves might do to him. Pitch modeling only gives him a slight reprieve (3.92 Bot ERA, 102 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 132 (123 Home)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.64
The good news is that Charlie Morton’s 4.70 ERA exceeds all of his estimators. He’s allowed hard contact on just 30.6% of batted balls (3.35 xERA) with a better than league average strikeout rate (23.2%). However, last year’s control issues persist (10.5 BB%) and a 9.6 SwStr% is his lowest mark since Pittsburgh. While PitchingBot still believe in Charlie’s Uncle Charlie (57 curveball grade), Stuff+ has joined in on pooping the party with a 91 grade.
Opp wRC+: 103 (19.3 K%)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.61
DFS Notes: In the 70s, but wind blowing in around 10 mph from left-center. Again, no interest in pitchers here. Bibee is probably obvious without the concerns stated above. Morton due to Cleveland’s lack of strikeouts, along with some concerns. Many of the better Cleveland bats may be too expensive here, but with Morton’s wOBA and xwOBA above .305 against batters from either side, I would probably try to go overweight in multi-entry. I chose Soto over Acuna (170 wRC+, .245 ISO v RHP since LY) in my expensive outfielder spot, but with RHBs owning a .319 wOBA and LHBs a .315 xwOBA against Bibee, all the Braves you can afford make sense. I was able to squeeze Olson (171, .336) into my preliminary single entry attempt. All Cleveland top arms were off last night in a loss after pitching the night before, while the Braves have a rested pen as well.
Update 5:15 EST: FD is giving us quite the price (+132) on Morton's K prop. First six in CLE LU < 20 K% against RHP since last year.
Phillies @ Padres
It’s been three straight starts since Ranger Suarez has allowed a single run (22 IP). He’s simply been dominant with a 22.9 K-BB%, 59.5 GB% and just two barrels allowed on the season. Only one-quarter of his contact has reached a 95 mph EV. To throw just some water on this fire, he remains down more than a mph on his sinker and four-seamer with just an 84 Stuff+. PitchingBot does grade everything except the four-seam (42) at 52 or better, but are a top 10 offense (0.37 wFA/C) against the heater.
Opp wRC+: 102 (2.5 K-BB%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.27
With a clean outing last time out, Dylan Cease has dropped his walk rate to 9.8% to go along with his 31.3 K%. He has allowed 12.1% Barrels/BBE, but just a 34.8% hard hit rate, resulting in a 2.93 xERA that’s the closest non-FIP estimator to his 1.82 ERA. Only a single one of his eight barrels have become a home run. Averaging 96.7 mph on his heater (up 1.1 mph), Cease has generated a ridiculous 124 Stuff+ and even his control issues still have him at a 106 Pitching+. The Padres may have unlocked another level here.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.18
DFS Notes: This is the one cool weather (60 ish) pitcher friendly park spot where it makes sense to stay away from bats here. That said, the Padres don’t really have enough strikeouts to favor Ranger. The Phillies are upu to a 98 wRC+ from 89 in just two days with Harper back. That said, Cease is my top pitcher tonight for obvious reasons (the strikeout rate, duh). I just don’t chose to call him the best value with the highest price tag. With both offenses at 3.75 implied runs, I have nobody rostered from this game. No significant pen usage concerns.
Update 5:30 EST: Alfonso Marquez about as hitter friendly an umpire as you can get, but keep in mind that the difference between the most hitter friendly and pitcher friendly umpires in the game is only a bit more than 1/4 run. Weather generally a much larger impact. Cronenworth sits in favor of getting an extra RHB against Suarez (RHBs .314 wOBA, .318 xwOBA since LY). I still like this under (7.5 -115).
Pirates @ Giants
If non-FIP estimators above four don’t do it (just one of six barrels has left the park), pitch modeling (4.90 Bot ERA, 74 Stuff+) dumps all over Martin Perez’s 3.45 ERA. Now down to just a 9.5 K-BB%, no pitch he throws more than 11.8% of the time carries a PB grade above 47.
Opp wRC+: 101 (20.3 K%)
DEF: -7
B30: 3.86
The sinker heavy Jordan Hicks (52.7% usage, 55 grade, .270 xwOBA) has kept contact on the ground 56.6% of the time, but with just a 16.7 K%. While a 2.76 xERA is more than a run above his 1.71 ERA, contact neutral estimators like SIERA and xFIP sit around four and a half. Stuff+ loves the arsenal (116), but despite a 3.89 Bot ERA, Hicks has no other offering that exceeds a 48 grade.
Opp wRC+: 85
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.86
DFS Notes: Another cool weather spot (high 50s) in a pitcher friendly park, but not a pair of arms I’d consider rostering with low strikeout rates. Even with the Pirates at 3.41 total runs and the Giants at 4.06. Hicks keeps batters grounded too often for Pirate bats to have any value here. Austin Slater (109 wRC+ v LHP since LY) has pinch-hit risk, but costs $3K or less out of the leadoff spot. RHBs have a .343 wOBA and .348 xwOBA against Perez since last year and Soler (176, .373 ISO) is a lefty masher extreme. Bullpens were both heavily used last night. Bednar took the loss in 15 pitches. Chapmans thrown more than 40 last two nights. Three of the top four on the SFG depth chart (FG) threw at least 17 pitches last night with Taylor Rogers the exception.
Update 6 EST: I was close last night, but ended up playing SFG (-148). The Pirates have added an extra RHB with Cruz sitting. Not that he was doing much, but LHBs have been much better against Hicks. The Stuff+ and xERA gaps were the difference for me (40 points and nearly two runs).
Twins @ Angels
Written here before Paddack’s last start…” Chris Paddack has struck out just nine of 70 batters with four of seven barrels (12.7%) leaving the park and 91.8% of swings at pitches in the strike zone resulting in contact. A 5.21 SIERA is Paddack’s best estimator, but pitch modeling metrics offer some cause for optimism. PitchingBot (3.29 ERA) loves the changeup (68 grade, despite a .493 xwOBA and 14.7 Whiff%), while the arsenal may be in the neighborhood of average (100 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+). He has faced the Brewers, Dodgers and Orioles, so there may be hope against the White Sox.” He struck out 10 of 27 White Sox with a 13.5 SwStr% over seven shutout innings. While his 5.57 ERA now matches a 5.50 xERA, contact neutral estimators dropped below four. This matchup is closer to his last one than earlier ones.
Opp wRC+: 96 (24.9 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.49
Chucking 98 mph heat, Jose Soriano has some trouble finding the plate (12.7%), but has still generated a 17.5 K-BB% through three starts. The four-seamer gets just a 41 grade from PitchingBot, but he’s complementing with a 54 grade sinker and 66 grade curve often enough to keep batters off balance and contact on the ground 60% of the time. If he can ever start throwing more strikes (98 Pitching+), this arsenal has the potential to become an upper rotation arm (110 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 92 (26.5 K%, but 152 team wRC+ L7 days)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.18
DFS Notes: Low 60s, but winds blowing out to LC at 10 mph should counteract that in a hitter and power friendly park. That said, there’s too much upside in these lineups to ignore low priced pitching here. In fact, I’m currently rostering both pitchers in my single entry for $7K (about $1K more on FD, but just as viable if wanting to go offense first). I may consider moving off one and paying up for...Cease at some point? The Angels and Twins both have moderate (for this slate) 4.25 run totals. Trout (152 wRC+, .299 ISO v RHP since LY) is a monster and top bat you may even be able to roster with Paddack. Schanuel (94 wRC+ v RHP career) and Adell (150 wRC+ this year) are low priced Angels to consider otherwise. Considering Soriano’s control issues, Julien (149 wRC+, .240 ISO v RHP since LY) is in my lineup despite Soriano’s presence. He’s going to get on base and is cheap. Many other left-handed Twins are cheap platoon bats with strong numbers against RHP, though Soriano actually has a reverse split (RHBs .346 wOBA, .339 xwOBA, LHBs .244, .291). Essentially, exposure to both sides is justified and even recommended. There may be enough strikeouts and runs to satisfy both ends. Matt Moore threw 29 pitches last night and would be the only bullpen concern on either end.
Update 6:15 EST: Couple of lineup changes taking large K-rates out of the lineup (Sano, Buxton). Still, the Angels have piled their LHBs towards the end of the lineup (.390 wOBA/xwOBA v Paddack in small sample since LY). Neto bats second. Can't understand the +145 price on Soriano's K prop (6.5). He struck out six Rays twice (tough K lineup) and 7 Reds (similar to Twins). Why so much?
Diamondbacks @ Mariners
Covering for the injured Merrill Kelly, Slade Cecchoni was pretty…meh in San Francisco, striking out just three with a 3.1 SwStr%, but without a walk and only one barrel (home run). Pitch modeling (2.04 Bot ERA, 106 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+) was much more impressed with the outing, giving him a 74 grade on 28 four seamers thrown. The heater was up 0.6 mph from last year, though scouting reports (Fangraphs) only sees it as an average potential offering with the slider (60 FV grade) the only real star in a profile that needs improved command (35 current value) to reach his 45 FV grade overall. Major projection systems already see him as nearly a league average pitcher with projections below four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 101 (28.4 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.89
The velocity remains down (0.9 mph on the year, 1.9 mph last start), but George Kirby still found a way to dominate at Coors, striking out seven of 21 batters, but allowing his third walk of the year. Known for his pristine control (2.7 BB%), Kirby strikes out enough batters (23.6 K%) to potentially be one of the top pitchers in the league with strong contact management (30 Hard%). A 4.76 DRA is his only estimator not more than a run and a half below his 5.33 ERA. He’s been victimized by a .359 BABIP and 60.9 LOB% and while pitch modeling isn’t as high on him as last year (99 Stuff+), he’s still using it well (109 Pitching+, 3.03 Bot ERA without a single pitch graded below 55). The level of concern is present, but minimal.
Opp wRC+: 87 (but 7.8 K-BB%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.54
DFS Notes: Protected, but very pitcher friendly environment with the Diamondbacks the low team on the board (3.15). I don’t know if Kirby has enough upside against this lineup, though he’s reasonably priced at less than $9K. That said, not much interest in Arizona bats. Maybe Joc Pederson (183 wRC+ this year). Cecchoni seems volatile here and that’s not always a bad thing at a low price. There are a lot of strikeouts here. That said, Josh Rojas (168 wRC+ this year, big night on Friday) would be one of my top value plays out of the leadoff spot again.
Update 6:25 EST: Same nine guys, but Arizona shuffles up the order with Jake McCarthy up top.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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