It's been a long and busy day. I still have five to get to, but below are breakdowns for most of Tuesday's games. DFS notes tomorrow as well and then maybe a few time stamped updates afterward.
All stats through Sunday. Legend at bottom of page.
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Reds @ Guardians
I believe we saw this same matchup last week, when Tanner Houck did exactly the opposite of what we expected him to do against a predominantly left-handed contact prone lineup. He struck out nine of 29 without a walk and just three hits. Such is life against any team when you hit your spots though and his pitch map from that game shows very few pitches in the middle of the plate to the top of the strike zone. Sinkers, sliders, splitters all down and on the corners. He’s now faced 50 LHBs with a .203 wOBA against him this year. He’s using the same pitches against LHBs as last year, but he’s getting better movement and locating better. Let’s see if he can do it again.
Opp wRC+: 105 (19.7 K%)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.54
Ben Lively projects for estimators between four and a half and five, which is actually better than his actual work (5.01 ERA/5.13 FIP/4.98 xFIP) in just over 200 innings. While he struck out seven of 19 Red Sox, he did so with just an 8.9 SwStr%.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.04
Update (3:30 EST): Bullpens are rested, but the other is pretty ugly here. Everything is on th table. Tough game to play when a rain delay could knock out the pitchers early.
Phillies @ Reds
Cristopher Sanchez has been dominant in three home starts (CIN, PIT, COL), but struggled in his lone road effort in Washington. All non-FIP estimators (he hasn’t allowed a home run with just three barrels) are above his 2.53 ERA, but only stretch as high as a 3.19 DRA. Sanchez has struck out 27.2% of batters with 62.7% of contact on the ground. He hasn’t faced any power house or even above average offenses, but that’s pretty impressive no matter who it’s done against. All three pitches grade at least average with a 3.06 Bot ERA and 101 Stuff+ (104 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -2
B30: 3.83
Andrew Abbott’s 2.70 ERA is well beyond contact neutral estimators (10.6 K-BB%) and even significantly below a 3.35 xERA. He’s allowed seven barrels, but just 18 hard hit balls. Like Sanchez, he has three pitches graded average or better (changeup 46 though), but with just a 95 Stuff+. Both of these pitchers also have significant platoon issues (RHBs > .315 wOBA and xwOBA since last year for both) and I only see one LHB projected (Schwarber – did I miss a Harper injury?).
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: -5
B30: 4.21
Sanchez may not have faced many good offenses, but Abbott’s getting by on smoke and mirrors. There’s a clear edge for the Phillies here and probably still as well offensively without Harper. They’ve even had the better defense so far. (PHI -120 F5) (Follow RockyJade on Action Network to get it quicker.)
Update (3:40 EST): Abbot beat his K prop (5.5) for the first time last time out, but hasn't exceeded a 7.4 SwStr% yet. Some Ks in Philly LU, but not an egregious amount. Plus a threat of a delay could knock him out early. Also makes me glad I played F5 instead of full game. We also gained 2.9% on that on the overnight (-120 to -135).
Brewers @ Pirates
Already closer to 26 than 25, Tobias Myers is expected to make his debut here. While projection systems give him an ERA/FIP combination just above four, Fangraphs gives him just a 35+ Future Value grade without a single offering with the potential to be above average. Myers has been at AAA since 2021. He has struck out 22 of 67 batters this year though, so perhaps he’s found something.
Opp wRC+: 85 (78 Home, 39 L7 days)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.67
Baily Falter’s 4.05 ERA is at least a quarter run below all estimators (12.7 K%, 9.4% Barrels/BBE). Pitch modeling is not a fan (75 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 78
DEF: -8.5
B30: 3.63
Update (3:50 EST): Same delay potential as Cincy.
Dodgers @ Nationals
James Paxton (75 Stuff+) has walked 14 of 68 batters with just 10 strikeouts. Combined with a 52.3% hard hit rate, this has produced a 2.81 ERA. Sure. His velocity is down 1.7 mph from last year too.
Opp wRC+: 65
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.24
Patrick Corbin has the same 14.3 K% as Paxton, but a much more reasonable 7.6 BB%. Corbin has just one estimator (6.68 xERA) higher than Paxton’s best estimator (4.81 DRA). Corbin’s 77 Stuff+ is better than Paxton and his 3.91 Bot ERA is two runs better than Paxton.
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.57
I never thought I'd utter these words again, but Corbin is the side to back against the Dodgers here. Just look at the numbers. The Dodgers surely have a massive offensive edge, but the Nationals have been better in both starting pitcher and bullpen here.
Update (4 EST): With winds blowing out counteracting temps in the 60s, decent weather for two poor pitchers. Adding F5 o5.5 (-102) here. Gained a very small 0.5% on Nats on the overnight.
Tigers @ Rays
Averaging just 89.3 mph, Kenta Maeda’s fastball is just not competitive anymore (-4.8 RV/100, .547 xwOBA), which makes it difficult to set up his only above average offering, the splitter (53 PitchingBot grade). Maeda has just an 87 Stuff+ rating overall and his reverse split (RHBs .350 wOBA, .341 xwOBA) is not going to play well against this predominantly right-handed lineup either. While all seven of Maeda’s barrels have left the yard, that’s still 11.7% of his contact. He doesn’t have an estimator below five.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 4
B30: 3.93
I find it perplexing that PitchingBot doesn’t grade any of Ryan Pepiots offerings better than 57, but he still has a 115 Stuff+. With a 30.7 K%, 14.5 SwStr% and 74.4 Z-Contact%, Pepiot is averaging estimators nearly a run below his 4.37 ERA (63.8 LOB%). He could do a more consistent job of locating his heaters up and sliders and changeups down, but he’s still getting a whiff rate above 28% on all three of those pitches.
Opp wRC+: 88
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.94
Pepiot’s estimators are more than two runs better on average. I don’t want to touch the Tampa Bay bullpen at this point, but Pepiot can afford to miss a few spots. Maeda can not. Rays -150 F5 feels like a bargain.
Update (4:15 EST): Wenceel Perez (in for Torkelson) adds a 46.7 K% against RHP in a small sample, 20 points higher than Torkelson. I'm borderline on Pepiot's K prop with this. Small gain of 1.24% on the F5.
Athletics @ Yankees
Paul Blackburn has just a 10.3 K-BB%, but 53.5 GB%, having allowed just two barrels (33.8 Hard%). His estimators range from a 2.73 FIP to a 4.09 SIERA with most of them in the mid to upper threes. He throws six different pitches between 10% to 20% of the time, none more, none less, while PitchingBot grades all except the cutter (62) and four-seamer (43) within five points of average. His 4.09 Bot ERA and 94 Stuff+ are at least close to average though and only the sinker (-0.4) has a negative RV/100.
Opp wRC+: 113 (8.6 K-BB%)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.55
Marcus Stroman may be the least trustable estimators in baseball. Ranging between a 3.30 xERA and 4.01 FIP, they are very similar to Blackburn’s on average with an 11.0 K-BB% and 60.7 GB%. He also throws five pitches more than 10% of the time, but a sinker 39.7% of the time. NONE of his offerings grade better than 43 (PitchingBot) with an absurd 6.00 Bot ERA. A 92 Stuff+ and Pitching+ are a bit more moderate.
Opp wRC+: 81 (27.8%)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.24
These two pitchers are near carbon copies of each other, but where they really separate is in PitchingBot grades, who do not believe anything Marcus Stroman is selling them. The Yankees do have a massive offensive edge, but the A’s also have a large bullpen edge with Mason Miller waiting at the end. Closer than the experts think (A’s +184).
DFS Notes: Before getting into this game, a couple of notes on the slate on the whole. Another day with cool temperatures and potentially game affecting winds. It’s in double digits blowing in, out or sideways in most parks with just one dome on the board. The other thing is whether we try to find a pivot off of Pablo Lopez or just eat the chalk and differentiate in other ways. There are four teams at 3.3 runs or lower, but nobody within half a run of the White Sox (2.49) and the other three teams (A’s, Marlins, Mets) are facing ground ballers, not strikeout artists.
The Athletics have just a 3.02 implied run line (second lowest on the board), but there is no way I’m rostering Stroman for nearly $10K, even in pitcher friendly weather (50s, double digit wind in from right). That said, I don’t absolutely hate Blackburn ($7.6K) in an SP2 role, but he costs more than $9K on Fanduel as well. The Yankees have a middling run total (4.48) and bats seem too expensive for the conditions. The two Yankee setup men (Gonzalez, Hamilton may be sufficiently worked for today), but Holmes should be available and MIller threw just 14 pitches yesterday.
Update (4:25 ET): Gained just 0.5% on the A's from overnight (+184 to +180), but added a half unit u8 (-115), due to weather.
Marlins @ Braves
Velocity remains nearly a mph down for Trevor Rogers and his 12.9 K-BB% is four points below his career average, but he he’s struck out 11 of 44 batters with just a single walk in his last two starts, both at home, against the Braves and Giants. Fastballs up, changeups down has been working for him recently. He’s kept 51.6% of his contact on the ground with just two barrels. With that, all non-FIP estimators are below, but within half a run of his 3.92 ERA. PitchingBot is a bigger fan than Stuff+ (94). It grades all three pitches he throws more than 20% of the time between 54 and 57.
Opp wRC+: 118
DEF: -9
B30: 4.24
Two strong efforts in a row for Max Fried…huh? He did what last time out? Oh, well, it was the Astros (5 IP – 3 ER – 4 BB – 2 K). So, he doesn’t have a single estimator below four (3.7 K-BB%), but the velocity is there and the ground balls are there (59.6%) and he doesn’t have a pitch graded below average (PitchingBOt) except for a slider he throws three percent of the time. Look, a 4.14 Bot ERA and 97 Stuff+ and Pitching+ aren’t great, but he did pitch well against the Marlins and he won’t sustain a .375 BABIP or strand rate that’s exactly the same as his ground ball rate.
Opp wRC+: 54 (6.2 BB% and HR/FB)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.64
DFS Notes: Cool for Atlanta (high 60s) with nearly double digit wind blowing in from RF. The top of both bullpens have been moderately used the last few days. At the $8K mark, I’m fine with taking shots with Fried here, but does he have anywhere near the upside of Lopez. Even when on his game, it’s ground balls and league average strikeouts. The Braves are the top offense on the board (5.31) and there’s a way to afford a lot of those bats. You may not like it, but we’ll get there later. Only Harris and Fletcher are below a .200 ISO against LHP since last season among Atlanta regulars. Marcell Ozuna (162 wRC+, .335 ISO v LHP since LY) makes my initial build, but Acuna (142, .205) is certainly a top bat tonight as well.
Astros @ Cubs
J.P. France doesn’t have a quality start this year, but not from lack of opportunity. The Astros have allowed him to face at least 22 batters in each start, despite an 8.1 K-BB%. His best estimator is a 4.88 FIP. He does not have a single average offering (Pitching Bot 5.72 ERA) and Stuff+ agrees (84).
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 0
B30: 4.26
Jordan Wicks always gets himself in trouble and hasn’t completed five innings (10.6 BB%, 12% Barrels/BBE), but has struck out 28.2% of the batters he’s faced. His 5.00 xERA is a run above all other estimator and pitch metrics like his fastball (57 PitchingBot grade, 3.71 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 134 (16.5 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.16
France has been much worse than Wicks, who at least has shown sparks of upside. Aside from the offensive edge, I don’t see why the Astros are favored in this game (CHC +102).
DFS Notes: Cool (around 60), but with a 12 mph wind out to RC. Alzolay is the only pitcher at the top of either bullpen to have worked in the past two days (38 pitches last three), but he may be on the hot seat anyway. Both of these offenses have top four run totals. I’m more interested in offense here than Coors. LHBs are above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against France since last year, but RHBs smash him (.338 wOBA, .367 xwOBA). My top Cubs bat is Michael Busch (130 wRC+, .252 ISO v RHP since LY, 252 wRC+ this season overall). Christopher Morel (106, .223) is my single entry third baseman as of now. On the other end, I chose Alvarez (162 wRC+, .232 ISO v LHP since LY) as the top bat on the board over Tucker (165, .278) against a pitcher with a reverse platoon (LHBs .367 wOBA, .354 xwOBA since LY).
Update (5:15 EST): This is one I thought would drop, but remains at exactly Cubs +102. Some reconfiguring of the Cubs LU, which might change who we like there as well. Certainly Nico Hoerner gets a nice bump at the top.
Blue Jays @ Royals
There was a bit of a scare (Kevin Gausman was injured this spring, had a short first start and then two stinkers with decreased velocity), but he got the velocity back in his last start, striking out six of 21 Yankees. He’s sitting on a 23.2 K%, but 15.9 SwStr% and pitch modeling still likes the arsenal (58 fastball, 67 splitter grades, 3.45 Bot ERA, 103 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+). All good now. Nothing to see here. I won’t even mention his 7.80 xERA (guess I just did) because he’s only allowed one barrel in each of his last two starts.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 7
B30: 4.71
Michael Wacha is pitching well. His 3.75 ERA is supported by the majority of his estimators (16.1 K-BB%) and the contact profile only improved the package (6.1% Barrels/BBE, 33.3 Hard%). PitchingBot continues to love the changeup (68) and he’s going to throw it to everybody (LH/RH). Stuff+ (86) is not as friendly as the Bot (3.53 ERA), but it’s pretty alone in it’s criticism of Wacha’s work. The Blue Jays are bottom third of the league against changeups too (-1.03 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: 5.5
B30: 4.59
DFS Notes: Near neutral conditions. Close to 70 with a 10 mph left to right. The Kansas City pen is well rested, while all three of Toronto’s top guys have thrown two of the last three days with Romano and Garcia three of the last four, but none reaching 20 pitches in an outing. This could mean a larger workload for Gausman and I like him in a pivot off Lopez for $8.5K, but if you have access to ownership projections, I’d let them be my guide on him. The Blue Jays don’t strike out enough for Wacha at more than $8K, but with both offenses in the middle of the board, I don’t have significant interest in much here. I do consider Witt (119 wRC+, .222 ISO v RHP since last year) a top SS, but plugged in what I think might be a better value. I would have some exposure to both offenses in multi-entry though, in case that wind changes directions to blow more outward.
Update (5:25 EST): A little thing that might make a small difference if rostering Gausman. KC has replaced Velazquez/Renfroe from their normal lineup with Blanco/Frazier. Won't necessarily improve their offensive output, but does bring down the strikeout rates a bit.
White Sox @ Twins
Erick Fedde doesn’t have a single estimator within a run of his 3.10 ERA, the lowest being a 4.28 SIERA (11.2 K-BB%). Fold the contact in (13.3% Barrels/BBE) and we have a 5.34 xERA. Pitch modeling metrics don’t hate him though (4.21 Bot ERA, 100 Stuff+). However, his most frequent pitch (sinker 39%, 40 grade) is the only pitch with a PitchingBot grade below 52.
Opp wRC+: 85 (26.3 K%) – Through Monday
DEF: -3.5
B30: 4.73
Pablo Lopez has struck out exactly seven in three of his four starts (25.8 K%, 14.8 SwStr%). Like last year, he’s running an ERA (3.97) that matches his DRA, but is more than half a run above all other estimators. A 61.8 LOB% is the culprit. Pitch metrics see him as only slightly better than actual results (3.72 Bot ERA, 104 Stuff+ & Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 64 (73 Road, 50 L7days)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.24
DFS Notes: As mentioned above, I expect ownership to be through the roof on Lopez, but think there’s a pivot or two, including a risky Gausman. I wouldn’t blame anyone for just plugging him in and forgetting it though. It’s a monster matchup in pitcher friendly conditions (near 50), but the wind is a bit tricky here, right now left to right at 18 mph. That said, I’m still attacking Fedde with LHBs above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. They’re cheap and the Twin still have a strong for this slate 4.5 team run total. Kirilloff (139 wRC+, .194 ISO v RHP since LY) and Julien (145, .227) have made my initial single entry build. Larnach (118, .216) is less than $3K and may be the top value on the board, though I have the other two slightly ahead of him overall. Maybe Larnach gets you two of three of Alvarez, Tucker and Acuna though. Both bullpens are rested, not that I'd fear a Chicago one.
Update (4:50 EST): Added an under 2.5 (-118) on CWS with Lopez, weather, offensive stats, strong defensive LU for MIN, along with 3rd best pen estimators MLB.
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals
With a reasonable 11.2 K-BB% and 51.6 GB%, Tommy Henry should be able to find his way to the back end of a rotation, but he’s still managed to allow six barrels (9.7%) with a 46.8% hard hit rate. The likely reason is a 90.6 Z-Contact%. He also dropped down to 89.5 mph on this fastball last time out, his lowest single game velocity of his career. PitchingBot (4.16 ERA) is more lukewarm than Stuff+ (80) on the arsenal.
Opp wRC+: 83 (but 6.7 K-BB%) (Through Monday)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.97
Steven Matz’s velocity was up to start the year, but has seen it drop with each start, basically to where it was at the start of last season before ramping up a bit. While his 3.60 ERA matches his 3.71 FIP, all other estimators range about a run higher. That he’s produced a 4.84 xERA that meets his 4.85 SIERA is a surprise with only three barrels and a 32.4% hard hit rate. Matz has struck out just 13.9% of batters. His 8.9 SwStr% suggests some improvement, but he’s not fooling anyone with a 47.4 Z-O-Swing% that’s easily worst on the board. There’s some discrepancy between an 88 Stuff+ and 3.14 Bot ERA that sees his sinker (58.3% usage, 56 grade) and changeup (28.6%, 59) as strong pitches.
Opp wRC+: 131 (15.7 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.09
DFS Notes: Around 60 degrees with little wind effect (5 mph out to right) in a pitcher friendly park. Still, my interest in pitching here is non-existent. Not enough upside, despite Arizona’s 4.0 implied run line. Batters from either side exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Henry since last season. Ivan Herrera (114 wRC+, .167 ISO v LHP since LY) is a top catcher and top value at the position. He’s likely my guy tonight, but Contreras (142, .224) is another of my favorite catchers tonight. Goldschmidt is down to a .140 ISO v LHP since last season with a 128 wRC+. The top of both bullpens has been moderately to lightly worked the last couple of days, but I don’t anticipate any major restrictions.
Update (5 EST): A couple of things. Herrera is out, which means some DFS adjustments. Gorman replaces. Henry does have a bit of a reverse split, but also increases strikeout rates. With similar SP estimators, near 50 point wRC+ gap v LHP (despite small sample) and similar defenses, ARI +130 (F5) has some value (no line last night). STL does have the better bullpen, so we elect F5.
Mariners @ Rangers
Logan Gilbert has pitched at least 6.2 innings of one run ball in three of his four starts with a 25 K-BB% on the year. Some of his pitches have had too much plate (four home runs on seven barrels), but he’s incorporated a cutter (2.9 RV/100) to take some pressure off the heater (down to 30.8% usage) with good results. The splitter is his only below average pitch (45 PB grade) and Stuff+ loves the arsenal (123). Gilbert’s estimators only run as high as a 3.76 DRA.
Opp wRC+: 115 (17.8 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.75
Dane Dunning developed a forkball this spring and has thrown it once this season, but he better do something before the other Texas pitchers get healthy because it’s not going well with the same old s**t. Unless you go by the 3.91 ERA (.189 BABIP, 83.3 LOB%), he has a 13.5 BB% and 15.5% Barrels/BBE, resulting in all estimators above four and a half with some awful pitch metrics (6.07 Bot ERA, 84 Stuff+). PitchingBot doesn’t grade any of his offerings above 46 with his slider (26.4%) and sinker (35.4%) at 41 and 39 respectively.
Opp wRC+: 103 (28.2 K%, but 155 team wRC+ L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.29
What a pitching mismatch. Gilbert’s estimators are two runs better than Dunning’s on average and their Stuff+ grades are 39 points apart. Despite the half run bullpen edge, I actually grade the F5 (-114) the better play, but it’s fine either way.
DFS Notes: The only protected environment on the slate and therefore one of the most hitter friendly even at neutral, this is a dangerous spot for Gilbert if he’s your move off Lopez, but he does have similar upside. Both teams have 4.5 team run totals, but while you can consider the Texas front four (Semien 126, .214, Seager 173, .293, Garcia 127, .268 and Carter 176, .313) top bats, I’m more interested in a hot Seattle offense against Dunning. J.P. Crawford (131, .188) is that top SS value I spoke of earlier. Haniger, Raleigh and Rojas are the only above average regulars by wRC+ this season, but I don’t see anyone in this lineup as a particularly poor value. Both teams were off on Monday. Bullpens should be good to go.
Update (5:40 EST): Key to note here the open roof tonight, which increases the run environment around 15% and home runs a bit less than 20% on average (3y Statcast Park Factors). Lopez is becoming a more difficult fade, outside or Gray-Rod. If I hadn't already played SEA F5 (0.43% gain since last night), I'd like the SEA o4.5 (-110) just as much. In fact, I think I'll add it anyway.
Padres @ Rockies
Michael King is coming off his best start of the season in Milwaukee (7.2 IP – 1 R – 2 BB – 10 K – 26 BF). He’s now struck out 25.4% of the batters he’s faced, but with just a 10 SwStr% and 13.2 BB%, though 10 of his 15 walks came in his first two outings. He’s sitting on a 17.1 K-BB% over his last three starts. He’s also allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE, but with six of eight coming against the Dodgers. King’s best estimator is a 4.26 SIERA, but I’d hold off on condemning him for that yet. PitchingBot (3.25 ERA) grades all four of his offerings above average, although it should be noted that his velocity remains down a mph from his starts last year.
Opp wRC+: 76 (27.6 K%, 6.9 HR/FB) (Through Monday)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.92
Four of Ryan Feltner’s five barrels (league average 8.3% rate) have left the park, which is why he has a 4.47 FIP with the next worst estimator a 3.69 xFIP. A.357 BABIP is another reason his ERA is above five, but a 27.4 K%, 14.7 SwStr% and 78.2 Z-Contact% suggest he might be the best pitcher on this staff. A 44.9 Z-O-Swing% could explain the poor results, but even then, only 36.7% of his contact has been hit hard, also near league average. PitchingBot (4.01 ERA) grades all three offerings he throws more than 10% of the time average of better and Stuff+ (103) seems to agree. Feltner might be a real pitcher held hostage by the Rockies.
Opp wRC+: 112 (20 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.26
DFS Notes: Refer back to the Miami/Atlanta notes where I said you might not like my idea for affording top bats tonight. I’m much more interested in pitching than hitting at Coors tonight. With temperatures in the 50s and wind blowing in from right at 10 mph, I don’t see the park as particularly imposing tonight. Well, I never see the Rockies as particularly imposing anywhere anymore. With King $7K and Feltner $600 less, I have these two pitchers as potentially the top values on the board. The Rockies (4.28) are actually bottom half of the board tonight, while the Padres are just below the Braves (5.22), but I believe Feltner is being undervalued here. There is more risk because the Padres don’t strike out much, but I don’t find this lineup particularly ferocious, especially with Machado on paternity leave. While I think all Colorado bats are over-priced here, I’m not much higher on San Diego with nobody projected above a .190 ISO against RHP since last year, but you should have some exposure in multi-entry. Nick Mears is the only top end Rockies reliever who worked yesterday, though all worked the day before. Two straight for Suarez, though just 25 pitches.
Orioles @ Angels
Despite some minor command issues sustaining, Grayson Rodriguez is compensating by overpowering opponents with a 27.8 K% (78.6 Z-Contact%). Estimators are about a run above his 2.63 ERA with the 4.62 DRA being the lone dissenter, while the pitch modeling metrics absolutely love him (2.18 Bot ERA, 114 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+). Everyone one of his pitches grades 58 or higher (PitchingBot).
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.16
Griffin Canning was solid last time out against Tampa Bay, getting a velocity bump back near last year’s levels, but the body of work this year has been lacking. He’s down to an 18.2 K% with 12.3% Barrels/BBE. A 4.43 SIERA is his lowest estimator by nearly half a run. His pitch metrics include a 5.44 Bot ERA and 84 Stuff+. The four seam fastball he’s thrown 39.9% of the time has a -3.9 RV/100 with a .477 xwOBA and 30 PitchingBot grade (20 is the lowest you can go and I’ve never seen a pitch in the 20s.
Opp wRC+: 131 (121 Road, 164 L7 days)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.35
With about a run and a half separating pitcher estimators and 30 points of Stuff+, you add in the Baltimore offensive and bullpen edges and they should probably be two to one favorites here, even if Canning pitched better last time out. (BAL -148).
DFS Notes: It’s probably no surprise that Grayson is my main Lopez pivot. I currently have him penciled in for $300 more on DK ($600 on FD), but am unsure if I’ll keep him or go back to Lopez in single entry yet. High 50s is cold for L.A., though with decent humidity and near double digit wind out to center. It’s still fine against Trout and nobody else of note. The Angels are at 3.83 runs with the O’s nearly a run higher and they’re certainly another team I’m interested in tonight. Ryan O’Hearn (127, .196) is a bit cheaper than Busch and in line with Kirilloff (you can use both with 1B and OF eligibility). All Baltimore regulars against RHP not named Holliday exceed a 115 wRC+ this year with only Rutschman and Mountcastle below a .195 ISO against RHP since last year. Both Kimbrel and Cano exceeded 20 pitches last night and have pitched two of the last three, which may get Grayson deeper into this game, while a marginal Angels’ pen is rested.
Update (6 EST): Adell in for Drury. Ten percent higher strikeout rate.
Mets @ Giants
Luis Severino has looked much better than last year, but not 2.14 ERA good. Five of his 10 runs have been unearned, but he doesn’t have a single estimator reaching four. It’s not as much his 13.0 K-BB% with a paltry 7.8 SwStr%, but a career high by more than 10 points 60.7 GB%. Aside from his four-seamer (41.6%), which he’s frequently throwing over the middle of the plate, but at 96.2 mph, none of his other offerings hit 18% with a drop in sliders and changeups for a 10 point increase in sinker usage, which explains some of the ground ball rate, but it’s still only 12.3%. Pitch modeling (3.94 Bot ERA, 103 Stuff+) seem to suggest everything’s fine, but I’d be a bit concerned if he doesn’t start missing a few more bats because while the sinker (56) and four-seam (55) grade well, I don’t think they’re going to sustain that ground ball rate.
Opp wRC+: 100 (Through Monday)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.30
I want to go back to last Thursday’s blurb on Logan Webb here… “He’s struck out just 17 of 100 batters with a 6.4 SwStr% and only half his contact on the ground (50.6% is low for him). However, he’s only walked five and allowed three barrels. His 3.80 ERA matches a 3.79 SIERA, though with just one of his barrels leaving the park, Webb has a 3.12 FIP, but 5.22 xERA with all other estimators sitting somewhere in between. The good news is that pitch modeling still loves the stuff (3.21 Bot ERA, 108 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+), while all three of his pitches grade above average.” Webb responded by justifying the faith of those pitch models with seven two-hit shutout innings against the Diamondbacks, striking out five of 23 with only a 6.9 SwStr%, but 14 of 17 batted balls on the ground. Both the sweeper (25%) and change (36.6%) retain a 61 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 99 (10.9 K-BB%)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.94
DFS Notes: No real interest in this game. It’s a tough environment. Wind doesn’t really matter here, but it’s still fairly cool. Both offenses are below four runs, but I don’t see either pitcher with their below average swinging strike rates and high ground ball rates as having enough upside to compete with Lopez (or Grayson) on this slate. LaMonte Wade (130 wRC+ v RHP since last year) is almost always a decent value around $3K though. None of the Mets top arms have pitched either of the last two days, while Doval threw 27 pitches last night with he, Tyler Rogers and Walker all working two of the last three days.
Update (6:20 EST): Gotta respect Mendoza for hamming the lefties (why does Wendle play so much) against the reverse split and changeup of Webb. He's old school. Does things by feel. It's refreshing, right?
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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