I'm not sure if anyone is noticing that I'm occasionally adding small updates below games before and after DFS notes. I’m going to start time stamping the updates, but just remember to occasionally check back in the afternoon...if you're into that sort of thing.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday with Monday’s notes including through Sunday. (Last three games include stats through Sunday)
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Last DFS Update (6:30 EST): Considering moving off Pfaadt and up to Cease (been flip flopping on these two all day), which I can do by moving off Springer for Max Kepler in the cleanup spot against the White Sox.
Athletics @ Yankees
There has been some excitement concerning J.P. Sears’ pitch modeling metrics that includes a 105 Stuff+ (102 Pitching+), 3.04 Bot ERA and 66 grade slider/sweeper (34.9% usage, 1.6 RV/100 via Statcast). However, even though he’s allowed a single run over his last 11.1 innings, his velocity has been down more than half a mph from his first two starts and he’s now walked as many batters as he’s struck out through four starts (10.3% each). He’s only allowed four barrels, which gives him a 4.94 xERA (his best estimator), but a 26.6 GB% is unlikely to play well in Yankee Stadium.
Opp wRC+: 108 (8.4 K-BB%, but 8.7 HR/FB)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.55
If you thought Sears was posting some exciting pitch metrics, how about Carlos Rodon’s 117 Stuff+ (101 Pitching+, 3.85 Bot ERA). The fastball appears to be doing it’s job (57.8%, 58 PB grade, 1.1 RV/100), but it’s Rodon’s only pitch with a positive run value and the slider (18.5%) is his only other pitch above a 40 grade (to be fair, the cutter is the only other pitch he throws more than 5.4% of the time). The actual results have been fine. Rodon holds a 3.66 ERA, having allowed just three barrels and none over his last two starts. Be careful though. As the dropoff from his Stuff+ to Pitching+ illustrates, he may have the stuff, but is not using it as well. Rodon has walked 12.2% of batters faced, striking out exactly one-fith and even with just two home runs, a 4.40 FIP is his best estimator. Don’t prematurely buy into the notion that he’s back, but you can be optimistic that he may have the potential to be.
Opp wRC+: 100 (27.9 K%, but 16 HR/FB)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.27
With Yankee injuries, the A’s have actually owned much superior bullpen metrics. Who knows if that will sustain, but even taking the small sample numbers that suggest the A’s are a competent offense against LHP with a large grain of salt, why in the world is this version of Rodon such a large favorite (+215) over anyone? Alternatively, I wouldn’t mind OAK o1.5 (+110) (F5). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network to get it earlier.)
Phillies @ Reds
The most striking thing when researching both these pitchers is the 49 point gap between their Stuff+ grades. Ranger Suarez (84) has positive PitchingBot metrics on three of the four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time though (four-seam the exception). He’s flat out dominated the Rockies and Pirates over his last two starts (16 Ks – 54 BF – 0 R) and is now posting a 24.2 K-BB% with a 61.9 GB% (2 barrels) on the season. Stuff, Schmuff. Suarez’s worst estimator is a 3.03 DRA. Actually, it’s sort of interesting that he has a 92.3 Z-Contact%, but 29.8 Z-O-Swing%. The former is second worst on the board, the latter best. He’s been successful getting them to swing at the pitches he wants them to.
Opp wRC+: 105 (12.8 BB%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.84
Hunter Greene pumping in strikes on more than 65% of his pitches lasted two starts. He walked three Mariners with only 38.8% of his pitches in the zone last time out and should be concerned about the trend in his fastball velocity this season (99.6 mph, 98.3, 97.8, 97.1)? His 133 Stuff+ and 60 grade heater suggests not yet. He’s struck out 17 batters in his last two games versus 13 in his first two starts. Overall estimators range from a 2.58 xERA (just two barrels!!) to a 3.77 xFIP (32.6 K%), well below his 4.35 ERA (.348 BABIP…defense anyone?).
Opp wRC+: 81 (but 113 wRC+ L7days)
DEF: -5
B30: 4.27
Brewers @ Pirates
You want a slider or you want a sinker? Those are your only two choices with Joe Ross, so it’s a good thing PitchingBot grades both as at least average pitches, but there’s also the not very optimistic 91 Stuff+. Ross has had just one good start out of three (@CIN), but half your contact on the ground with an even 10% swinging strike rate isn’t the worst from a guy basically off the street. His velocity has improved with each start too (93.6 mph, 94.4, 954). Just one barrel, but he’ll have to improve on the 11.4 BB%. All estimators are below his 4.91 ERA, but more so the contact inclusive ones (FIP, xERA), which are actually well below four.
Opp wRC+: 88 (but their 10.5 BB% against RHP could be a problem)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.78
You have to really try hard to find something negative to say about Jared Jones, who hasn’t had a walk rate below 8.9% in his professional career, but has walked just two batters (both in his first start), while striking out 32 of 88 faced with a 19.8 SwStr%, but here it is: the Pirates aren’t going to expose him. After throwing 89 pitches in his first start, he’s gone 80, 85 and 59. He was dominating (one hit, seven strikeouts) when he was pulled from that last start after 16 batters too, so who knows what the Pirates have in mind here, but it’s scary enough. Speaking of scary, how about estimators ranging from a 2.01 SIERA to a 3.34 DRA, a 136 Stuff+ (116 Pitching+) and both his fastball and slider grading 60+ by PitchingBot?
Opp wRC+: 128 (top MLB offense against sliders – 1.43 wSL/C)
DEF: -9.5 (2nd worst Runs Prevented MLB)
B30: 3.71
Update (4;30 EST): As good as Jones has been, they've been very conservative with him, which means you'll see plenty of bullpen, while Ross hasn't been as bad as his 4.94 ERA. The Brewers have a 40 point wRC+ edge against RHP, as well as a large defensive advantage with maybe the better bullpen too.
Tigers @ Rays
If you need me to tell you about what Tarik Skubal has been doing, you’re probably reading the wrong article and since he doesn’t affect the main DFS slate, I don’t really have to. Suffice to say, the dominance continues (22.9 K-BB%, 77.8 Z-Contact%, 3,35 DRA only estimator above three). I’ll admit the 101 Stuff+ is surprising.
Opp wRC+: 100 (102 Home, 100 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.87
I don’t know how the Rays continue to do it, but we all expect them to at this point. Zack Littell has a 19.1 K-BB% and has allowed just three barrels with a 27.4 Hard% through four starts. A 4.33 DRA is his only estimator above three and a half (seriously DRA, what a party pooper). Two things that make his performance even more insane are a 43.5 Z-O-Swing% and 80 Stuff+. That means batters are swinging at marginal stuff inside the strike zone and still not doing anything with it.
Opp wRC+: 86 (25 K%, 6.2 HR/FB)
DEF: -2
B30: 5.12 (still worst in MLB)
Marlins @ Braves
Ryan Weathers has turned his velocity spike into a career resurrection, allowing just eight runs (six earned) over 20 innings with a 24.6 K% and 12.1 SwStr%. Well…kinda. Ten of his 22 strikeouts and his only outing above a 12 SwStr% came in his last start against the Giants. He’s also walked 10.1% with seven barrels (12.7%). A 3.98 SIERA is his only estimator below four. The three pitches he throws more than six percent of the time grade average or better (4.21 Bot ERA) with a 103 Stuff+, but 95 Pitching+. This infers he has good enough stuff to be an average pitcher, but is not using it well enough to deserve his results right now. He may be able to stave off massive regression by improving the process though.
Opp wRC+: 117 (133 Home, 127 L7days)
DEF: -9.5 (worst Runs Prevented MLB)
B30: 4.38
Reynaldo Lopez has pretty successfully transitioned to a starting role, going exactly six innings in all three starts with only a single run allowed in his first. His velocity has been inching up with each start too. A 17.6 K-BB% checks out with just a single barrel, but also just a 9.6 SwStr%, while the pitch modeling metrics aren’t in love with him. None of his pitches grades above 50 (PB 4.49 ERA) with just a 96 Stuff+ (97 Pitching+). Maybe a 4.02 DRA (his worst estimator) has it right on this occasion.
Opp wRC+: 84 (68 Road, 82 L7days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.71
DFS Notes: A couple of blanket statements on the slate before beginning. Again, no protected environments (domes), but the weather is warming up slightly in most places (60s), but several parks have decent winds blowing out. However, just three of 14 teams exceed 4.55 implied runs with six of them (nearly half the slate) at exactly 4.25.
The Braves have the top team total (5.57) outside Coors, while the Marlins (3.93) are just two below four. Key to note that the Miami bullpen has been heavily used over the weekend, while Atlanta doesn’t have a single reliever who’s pitched two days in a row. While I don’t have any Braves in my single entry lineup first draft, David Fletcher and Michael Harris are the only two in the projected lineup below a .200 ISO against LHP since last year and RHBs have a .392 wOBA and .345 xwOBA against Weathers since last year. Acuna (141 wRC+, .209 ISO v LHP since LY) and Ozuna (164, .340) are top bats. I believe Lopez to be too expensive ($8.8K or more), but have no interest in attacking him with this weak lineup either. Just one projected Marlin exceeds a 100 wRC+ this year.
Update (4:45 EST): Elder in for Lopez. Doesn't change much from my perspective.
Blue Jays @ Royals
Yusei Kiikuchi has a 2.08 ERA and is doing it in a fairly sustainable way. Just a 33 K% with slightly increased velocity (95.5 mph) and only a single estimator above three (yup, 3.12 DRA). On top of that, 51% of his contact has come on the ground and both his barrels came in his first start. There are no downers when you look at the pitch modeling either. Kikuchi throws three pitches more than 18% of the time and all three receive a 59 grade (PB 3.27 ERA) with an overall 109 Stuff+. All of his pitches are above a 22% whiff rate.
Opp wRC+: 106 (18.6 K%)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 4.54
Brady Singer has a 1.54 ERA and it does not appear anywhere near sustainable in any way. His velocity has been slightly dipping with each start, a trend that started last season and while he does have a 25.9 K%, three of his four starts have been against the White Sox (twice) and Twins. He had a 5.7 SwStr% against the Astros. Singer’s pitch metrics are the exact opposite of Kikuchi’s. Not a single offering reaches a 50 grade (4.75 Bot ERA) with an 83 Stuff+ (91 Pitching+). The slider does have a chance though (46%, 48 grade, 39.8 Whiff%) and it’s the pitch the Blue Jays have struggled against the most (-1.3 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 102 (10.7 K-BB%, 121 L7days)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.67
I was ready to hammer the Jays F5 until that last sentence in Singer’s paragraph gave me pause. We’re looking for reasons to avoid bets, right? Perhaps it’ll be revisited tomorrow.
I was ready to hammer the Jays F5 until that last sentence in Singer’s paragraph gave me pause. We’re looking for reasons to avoid bets, right? Perhaps it’ll be revisited tomorrow.
DFS Notes: Near 70 degrees with winds blasting out to LC near 20 mph. I’m lukewarm on Kikuchi at his current cost of $8.2K or more, but with RHBs still around .320 (wOBA & xwOBA) against him since last year, I label Bobby Witt (128 wRC+, .237 ISO v RHP since LY) the top SS a top bat on the board period. Both teams are at 4.5 implied runs (which I believe is a mistake with Kikuchi clearly the better pitcher). While the Toronto’s slider issues remain in my mind, I still don’t have much confidence in Singer and I’d certainly be overweight on Toronto stacks in multi-entry. My initial single entry draft includes Springer (105, .146) and Vlad Jr. (116, .196), as well as Witt. Toronto bats are reasonably priced for the situation.
Update (5 EST): I let the F5 line get away from me. Up to TOR -120 now.
White Sox @ Twins
White Sox fans might be excited about Jonathan Cannon, who allowed just a single run on three hits to the Royals over five innings in his debut, but that should probably be tempered some. He struck out just three with a 6.3 SwStr% tossing 39 sinkers that averaged 92.6 mph mostly right down the middle and as many ground balls (six) as hard contacted ones. Fangraphs gives him a 45 Future Value grade with no stand out characteristics and projections above four and a half from every major projection system.
Opp wRC+: 77 (27.7 K%)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 4.82
Chris Paddack has struck out just nine of 70 batters with four of seven barrels (12.7%) leaving the park and 91.8% of swings at pitches in the strike zone resulting in contact. A 5.21 SIERA is Paddack’s best estimator, but pitch modeling metrics offer some cause for optimism. PitchingBot (3.29 ERA) loves the changeup (68 grade, despite a .493 xwOBA and 14.7 Whiff%), while the arsenal may be in the neighborhood of average (100 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+). He has faced the Brewers, Dodgers and Orioles, so there may be hope against the White Sox.
Opp wRC+: 68 (81 Road, 51 L7days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.32
DFS Notes: Another game in the 60s with a decent wind (near 15 mph) blowing out to LC. We can target players from either side of this matchup with all the strikeouts though. Cannon because he is super cheap ($6K), but not the cheapest. Paddack because he’s been more interesting that his results against tough offenses and has a great matchup tonight at less than $7.5K. The White Sox have the lowest team total on the board (3.48), but I’m still considering Gavin Sheets (155 wRC+ TY) one of the top value plays on the board. And despite Paul DeJong (145) the only other Chicago regular above a 73 wRC+ this season, Dominic Fletcher (73) and Nicky Lopez (47) should be top of the lineup bats at $2.2K or less. On the other side, Jose Miranda is the only projected Twin below a .170 ISO against RHP since last year, but the numbers against RHP for this lineup between last season and this present enormous gaps. The Twins do have a 5.02 implied run total, I’ll have some multi-entry stacks, should I get that far today, but none made my initial build.
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals
Although, Stuff+ doesn’t agree (98), Brandon Pfaadt is a PitchingBot darling with a fastball and slider graded above 60 (2.50 Bot ERA), but perhaps the biggest question is whether he can command it or not. I’m not talking about control (3.0 BB%), but putting pitches where he needs to. They tend to leak over the plate, resulting in four home runs (six barrels) in his four starts. He certainly misses enough bats (22.8 K%, 11.7 SwStr%) with three of the four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time inducing whiffs on at least one-third of swings. Only a 4.56 DRA is not more than a run below his 5.32 ERA (63 LOB%), though I’d be remiss to not note that his velocity has dropped over a mph in his last two starts. These Cardinals roughed him up to starts back after Atlanta did the same, but Pfaadt bounced back in his most recent effort against the Cubs. His struggles against St Louis were a bit odd, considering they’re a bottom five offense against four-seamers (-1.02 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 83 (89 Home, 63 L7days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.82
Lance Lynn’s start can probably be summed up by the single Oakland batter he struck out in his last start). Surface results have been great (2.18), but the deeper you dig, the yuckier it gets. The overall 13.6 K-BB% is fine, but his worst mark since that half season in Minnesota and we all know about his contact issues last year. The four home runs don’t even tell the story with 10 barrels. Lynn doesn’t have a single estimator within two runs of his ERA, but when you break it down to individual pitches, it’s even worse (4.71 Bot ERA, 83 Stuff+). Lynn is going to throw some version of a fastball nearly 90% of the time and none grade above average.
Opp wRC+: 92 (but 7.5 K-BB%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.16
Are you buying into the ERAs? Or the fact that the Cardinals smacked Pfaadt around last time out as an omen? If not, I can’t see a single reason Pfaadt shouldn’t be a larger favorite than -108.
DSF Notes: Another situation with temperatures in the 60s with a double digit (around 10 mph) wind blowing out to left in a still pitcher friendly park. Both teams at 4.25 run totals, but I’m already suggested above that it’s a mistake. Lynn is more risk than reward for more than $8K at this point. Despite LHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, I’m still not enamored with expensive Arizona bats on this slate, but I’d have some exposure in multi-entry. Although Siani and Winn are the only projected Cardinals below a 109 wRC+ against RHP since last year, Pfaadt is one of my top pitchers on the board and a bargain at $8K or less. His last performance against St Louis potentially remaining in the mind of other players only increases my interest. Pfaadt is currently my SP1.
Update (5:30 EST): Adding a K prop here. Pfaadt a bit above average K% for starting pitchers. STL right around league average against RHP. Pfaadt has faced 25.3 batters per start and beaten this number in 3 of 4. No reason it should be +140 (DK). The F5 line has moved against Arizona though (-3.14% from -108 to +105), though I can't pretend to know why.
Padres @ Rockies
Changing uniforms has not helped Dylan Cease change his ways. He’s still missing a ton of bats (30 K%) and walking a lot of batters (12.2%). In fact, this would be his highest walk rate outside 2020. However, he hasn’t walked more than two except for his last start in Milwaukee (five). He’s also been very fortunate that just one of his six barrels has left the park, resulting in a 2.88 FIP, but 3.73 xERA, both still his lowest estimators, despite a 1.99 ERA (.176 BABIP). The interesting news is that his velocity is up. It started the year up and has only increased since then (up 1.1 mph over last year). Pitch modeling systems love him (126 Stuff+, 3.37 Bot ERA), though they confirm that he needs to throw more strikes with his two primary offerings (106 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 79 (27.2 K%, 6.4 HR/FB, 69 Home, 34 L7days)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.01
Nope, but guess who DRA actually likes…Austin Gomber (3.75 DRA best estimator). An 11.4 K-BB% with 12.9% Barrels/BBE might actually play towards the back of some rotations in some parks, but a 79 Stuff+ won’t play anywhere.
Opp wRC+: 116 (3.7 K-BB%, 16.3 HR/FB)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.36
DFS Notes: Obviously, San Diego bats. They have a 5.95 team total. Every RHB you can afford. All projected RHB exceeds a 100 wRC+ against LHBs since last year and batters from that side post a .421 wOBA, .399 xwOBA against Gomber since last season. In addition, six Colorado relievers threw at least 15 pitches in yesterday's double-header, while the San Diego pen is nearly clean. I’ve been able to fit Boegarts (116) and Tatis (151), along with a cheap helping of Rosario (197 wRC+ this season). Considering the offensive output of the Rockies, I’m fine playing Cease here and even consider him a top arm on the slate, despite temperatures up nearly 30 degrees from near freezing this weekend. A 4.55 implied run total for the home team may be a bit of an over-reach, but still have at least some exposure to LHBs (.341 wOBA, .320 xwOBA v Cease since LY). Blackmon (99), McMahon (108) and Jones (119) have the highest wRC+ marks in the projected lineup against RHP since last year.
Update (5:45 EST): The Rockies are just awful. With a solid pitcher and bullpen all with estimators around four and an above average defense, I'm not sure even Coors should have Colorado at 4.5 runs. (COL u4.5 -122)
Orioles @ Angels
In his first major league action since 2017, Albert Suarez struck out four of 21 Twins over 5.2 shutout innings on three hits. He did not walk anyone or allow a barrel, but only 25% of his contact was on the ground. His fastball (62.7%) sat at an impressive 95.9 mph with a 40.7 Whiff%. Suarez had just an 18.4 K% over 108 KBO innings last year and has projections just north of four and a half this year.
Opp wRC+: 92 (77 L7days)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.16
Reid Detmers is in the midst of (another) breakout, striking out 34.9% of the batters he’s faced (71.1 Z-Contact% is easily best on the board), while allowing just two barrels through four starts. A 3.28 DRA is his only estimator above three. Reid Detmers is also becoming over-valued in the eyes of pitch modeling metrics. The fastball and slider (his two most frequent pitches) both grade below average (PitchingBot 4.58 ERA) with an overall 98 Stuff+ and Pitching+. His velocity is also down nearly a mph from his first two starts to his last two. He does appear to be well executing the north (fastballs), south (sliders) heat maps, so maybe Pitching+ is undervaluing his command.
Opp wRC+: 119 (121 Road, 164 L7days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.35
DFS Notes: These may be the most hitter friendly conditions with temperatures in the low 60s, but high humidity and a near double digit wind blowing out to left. Suarez is still a great punt pitcher for $4K on DK tonight. I’m utilizing him to get more expensive bats. You can do almost anything you want by rostering him. Both offenses have just 4.25 implied run lines and while I have little interest in marginal Los Angeles bats outside Trout, I’m interested in both sides of the part of this matchup. I believe there’s a wide range of potential outcomes here. Detmers could be a top arm, but as pitch metrics suggest, there could be value on Baltimore bats as well. In fact, Rutschman (163 wRC+, .187 ISO v LHP since LY) is my top catcher and Mountcastle (183, .299) a top overall bat as well.
Update (6 EST): Mountcastle is out. I'm not sure if he has an injury status, but adding two LHBs into the lineup isn't a bad move, as Detmers has been a reverse split guy, though Mountcastle wouldn't be the choice to sit with his prodigious numbers against LHP.
Mets @ Giants
A 4.54 FIP (8.7 HR/FB) is Jose Quintana’s only estimator within a run and a half of his 3.05 ERA (85.1 LOB%). He keeps sneaking out of trouble with just a 5.5 K-BB%, while he’s nearly already allowed half as many barrels (five) as last year (12). Don’t look to pitch modeling systems (4.92 Bot ERA, 82 Stuff+) to bail him out either. He doesn’t have a single offering reaching an average grade.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.31
Keaton Winn has been fine, just fine with a 4.09 ERA that’s within a quarter run of each of his estimators with one exception and it ain’t DRA this time. A 4.78 xERA illustrates what may happen when a 10.3 K-BB% meets a 48.3% hard hit rate with 10% of his contact being barreled. However, PitchingBot likes the splitter (42.8%, .303 xwOBA, 57 grade) and Stuff+ (113) the overall package (106 Pitching+). Winn may not be missing bats with too much hard contact, but a lot of it has been on the ground (56.7%).
Opp wRC+: 102 (10.8 K-BB%)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.92
DFS Notes: Despite the pitcher friendly park and still cool conditions, I have little interest in either of these pitchers with below average strikeout rates. In fact, with both teams in this game also at 4.25 implied runs, I have little interest in much of anything here. Jorge Soler is the only batter in the projected SFG lineup above a 100 wRC+ against LHP since last year and above a 100 wRC+ overall this season, while Nimmo, Stewart and Alonso can claim that for the Mets. Top relievers from both teams had Sunday off as well.
Update (6:15 EST): In the end, I'm just not buying what Quintana is selling, having watched almost all his starts. With offenses about even and a sizeable defensive edge for the Giants, I think they should be larger F5 favorites (-122).
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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