We’re not going through the whole slate and I won’t have time to circle back for DFS notes on Saturday. Let’s work through a bunch of games that stand out though.
All stats are through Thursday.
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Rays @ Yankees
Zach Eflin has struck out five in each of his four starts, but that’s been the only thing that’s been consistent in his game this year. He’s allowed at least five runs twice and a total of two runs in the other two combined. With an 18.4 K-BB%, it’s fair to say he’s been about a run better than his 4.63 ERA. He doesn’t have a pitch graded below 50 via PitchingBot and the sinker he throws most (36.7%) gets a 65 grade. Eflin has a 2.20 Bot ERA and while he’s not a favorite of Stuff+ (95), they love the way he uses it (110 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 120 (7.3 K-BB%, 137 Hm wRC+, 121 L7Days)
DEF: 0
B30: 5.18
Without getting into the Yankee portion of it, suffice to say that while I believe in Eflin, the offense (a cold Friday night not withstanding) has been a juggernaut and the Rays have the worst bullpen estimators in baseball by a comfortable margin. Maybe the smarter way to go about this is to play it live once the bullpen enters, but I’m projecting the Yankees for five here and we’re getting plus money(NYY o4.5 +112). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network to get these quicker.)
Tigers @ Twins
Reese Olson comes off of his best start of the season against the Rangers (6.1 IP – 1 R – 8 K) after his worst in Pittsburgh (4.1 IP – 6 R – 3 BB – 3 K). The unheralded young Detroit starter has increased his changeup usage this year to improve results against LHBs (.302 wOBA LY, .269 TY). Average estimators are only slightly above his 3.86 ERA and his 14.0 SwStr% suggests his 19.2 K% is a complete joke.
Opp wRC+: 76 (27.6 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.82
Bailey Ober is still working off eight runs in 1.1 innings in his first start, but has struck out 10 of 40 batters with just six hits and an earned run since. However, he has let up three more barrels (five in his first) for a total of eight. Despite the increased velocity (0.8 mph) batters are smashing his fastball for a wOBA and xwOBA above .500. I have some concern about the contact profile (6.57 ERA, 6.46 xERA), as he’s leaking too many of those four-seamers into the center of the plate. Both Statcast (-4.8 RV/100) and PitchingBot (49 grade) see the four-seamer (40.5%) as his worst pitch and Ober has just an 81 Stuff+ overall, but a 103 Pitching+ suggests he can be better with better command of that stuff.
Opp wRC+: 89 (24.5 K%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.37
I do like both pitchers, but Olson is the superior of the two at the moment (and may continue to be. The Tigers have the wRC+ edge against RHP and a solid defensive edge too. I have this game even through the first five. (DET +114 F5)
Brewers @ Cardinals
DL Hall has not inspired confidence in any of his three starts (7.8 K-BB%, 7.5 SwStr%, 10.6% Barrels/BBE). A 74 Stuff+ mark is even less optimistic, but PitchingBot grades both his four-seam (47.5%) and curveball (20.6%) above average. He just hasn’t been able to consistently hit his spots with them.
Opp wRC+: 79 (5.6 K-BB%, but 2.6 HR/FB)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.6
Mikes Mikolas is probably not as bad as his 5.82 ERA, but only his FIP is below four. A strikeout rate that can’t afford to dip is falling further (16.3%, 4.9 SwStr%) and the usually sturdy contact manager is allowing 44.3% hard contact (5.26 xERA). Batters from either side of the plate now exceed a .320 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against him since LY.
Opp wRC+: 127
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.11
Put bluntly, both pitchers have stunk. I’m not even going to try to argue on Hall’s behalf, but the Brewers have been vastly superior offensively and defensively. The St Louis bullpen has been about half a run better so far, but I like the full game price (+112) better than F5 (-102) and it’s not like the Milwaukee bullpen has been bad.
Marlins @ Cubs
Jesus Luzardo may be missing bats (23.9 K%, 13.9 SwStr%), but has had issues finding the plate (41.5 Zone%, 11.4 BB%) and is getting smoked when contact is made (15.8% Barrels/BBE). He may not be as bad as his 7.65 ERA. PItchingBot grades the fastball (56) his only above average pitch with a subpar Stuff+ (98) and Pitching+ (97) mark.
Opp wRC+: 148 (16.8 K%, 15.8 HR/FB)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.54
Javier Assad has produced a 20.3 K-BB% through three starts, that probably isn’t sustainable due to an 8.3 SwStr%, but he has increased that mark in each game. He’s also only allowed 11 hard hit balls (27.5%). Even if you’re not buying estimators, he has some room before reaching four. Pitching models are not really believers without an above average pitch grading, a 4.92 Bot ERA and 93 Stuff+ (98 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 89 (69 Road)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.37
Whatever you feel about how Assad has done it or whether it’s sustainable, it’s extremely difficult to find anything except positive to say about Luzardo’s performance aside from the SwStr%. The Cubs have a vastly superior Home/Road and L/R wRC+ edge, while the Miami defense and bullpen has been near the bottom of the league as well. With the caveat that this is the pitching matchup in Game 1, I’d like the Cubs up to -150.
Astros @ Nationals
Did you know Ronel Blanco and Trevor Williams have similar estimators around four. Blanco may have allowed just one hit over his first 15 innings, but has walked seven of 47 batters with just nine strikeouts since his no-hitter (both starts against Texas). He hasn’t allowed a barrel and only 11 hard hit balls (21.6%), forming a 1.72 xERA, but his velocity has dropped slightly with each start and he is now a full mph behind last year, while pitch modeling sees him as average (4.11 Bot ERA, 99 Stuff+). That would be a fine outcome for Blanco.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: 2
B30: 4.3
Estimators around four are quite the surprise for Trevor Williams, even if it’s only three starts. He’s been nearly average in just about every quantifiable way. There is some disagreement between PitchingBot (3.62 Bot ERA, all three pitches thrown more than 15% above a 50 grade) and Stuff+ (79), but you’d have enough trouble convincing me Williams was average, never mind anything better.
Opp wRC+: 120 (18.1 K%)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.49
It didn’t work on Friday night, although the Houston bullpen almost gave it back (that was part of the analysis). They’ve legitimately been bad in that area of the team this year. I see starting pitching as close because Blanco is getting too much credit after the way he started the year and the Washington offense has been legitimately good. They’re too large a dog here (+158).
Mets @ Dodgers
If it ends up being Gavin Stone for the Dodgers, this could be an interesting matchup with two young pitchers. Butto has a 3.00 ERA/2.79 FIP/3.77 xFIP in 42 innings since rerouting his arsenal and returning to the majors in August of last year. Stone has a 6.14 ERA, but is averaging estimators below four with a 15.1 K-BB% and just one barrel allowed.
I would only make the Dodgers small favorites here with an even pitching matchup a small offensive edge and bullpen estimators a run worse than the Mets.
Athletics @ Guardians
Alex Wood has been shelled through four starts (7.1 K-BB%, 48.1 Hard%). A 4.92 SIERA is his only estimator below five and batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him. What about pitch modeling? He doesn’t’ have a single pitch graded above 46 with a 5.32 Bot ERA and 75 Stuff+. The have been a top offense against two of those poorly graded pitches too (sinkers and sliders).
Opp wRC+: 129
DEF: -4
B30: 3.53
There were a number of ways to go here. The Guardians as favorites (full game or F5). The F5 over (both bullpens have been good, Cleveland one of the best), but I ultimately decided on taking plus money for the Guardians to score five runs tonight (o4.5 +114). I’d even further refine that to Guardians Over F5 if it were available.
Orioles @ Royals
While I'd love to glowingly heap praise on Corbin Burnes and Cole Ragans, I just don't have an angle to come at this one from.
Rangers @ Braves
Nathan Eovaldi is coming off his first poor start against the Astros. They barreled him up a couple of times. It happens. His 23.2 K% should be better with a 15.3 SwStr% and his worst estimators (and only one above four) is a 4.14 DRA. The two pitches he throws more than 30% of the time (four-seam & splitter) both grade above 55 via Pitching Bot (3.63 ERA).
Opp wRC+: 139 (131 Home)
DEF: 7
B30: 4.17
Charlie Morton has been roughed up for 10 runs over his last two starts and deserved it walking more Mets than he struck out, but suffered through some contact issues (33 GB%, two barrels) while striking out eight Marlins against one walk. Morton’s velocity is down 1.2 mph from last year and the walk rate is in double digits again. The stuff has been downgraded too (90 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 119 (17.8 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.92
I’m not saying it’s time to be concerned about Morton, but maybe cautious is a better word. I believe Eovaldi to be the better pitcher at this point. Although Texas has a fairly potent offense, there’s no denying that Altanta always has the edge in that department, but I’m not sure it’s a large enough edge to make them sizeable favorites here. I would lean towards Texas at +140 or better, which is only a bit more than they're currently at.
Mariners @ Rockies
First quality start for Luis Castillo last time out, striking out nine of 24 Cubs without a walk. It sometimes takes him a while to get going and the velocity is generally down in April (it was last year and it is this year) before he ramps up, but all estimators are already more than two runs below his 5.82 ERA (23.3 K-BB%, .446 BABIP, 66 LOB%). Pitch modeling is conflicting with a 92 Stuff+, but 107 Pitching+, 62 grade slider and 3.50 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 88 (19.7 K-BB%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.81
PitchingBot does not think Dakota Hudson throws an above average pitch, while batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Just one of his four barrels has left the yard, which is why a 3.72 FIP is his only estimator below a 4.15 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 93 (30.5 K%)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.7
We don’t currently have a line on this game after tonight’s PPD, but I make the Mariners close to -150.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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