We have 15 games, 10 on the DFS main slate and four pitchers making their first start of the season, including a Montgomery/Snell matchup that Scott Boras probably now has a rooting interest in. Made it through 14 of them on Thursday night with one more to go plus DFS notes late morning/early afternoon.
All stats are through Wednesday.
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Marlins @ Cubs
Assuming the same pitchers after Thursday’s PPD makes this game a quick copy/paste. If not, well, my apologies. A.J. Puk has been a disaster with a -10.3 K-BB% through three starts. Does it even matter he’s allowed just a single Barrel? He still has a 5.64 xERA and 94 Stuff+ and Pitching+. PitchingBot grades the pitch he uses the most (39% four-seam fastball) as his worst (41). Puk also has a large platoon split with RHBs 50 points (wOBA and xwOBA) better than LHBs against him.
Opp wRC+: 147 (16.8 K%, 15.8 HR/FB)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.54
Jameson Taillon makes his first start of the season. Last year, his 4.84 ERA was above, but within half a run of his estimators. The 15.1 K-BB% was fine and right on his career mark (15.7%). The 50 barrels (10.7%) were not. In fact, his rate of Barrels/BBE has increased each season since leaving the Pirates. Major projection systems all have him around four and a half this year. Taillon, too, had major platoon issues last season with LHBs over 80 points better (wOBA and xwOBA) against him than RHBs.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: -2
B30: 4.37
If Puk is going to continue with those peripherals, any decent team should probably be at least a two to one favorite over him (he probably also won’t be starting for very long). We don’t have a line on this game as of this writing with pitchers unconfirmed.
Angels @ Reds
A .196 BABIP and 98.7 LOB% are responsible for Tyler Anderson’s 1.47 ERA. He struck out 16.9% of the batters he’s faced, despite a 14.2 SwStr%. His lowest mark has been 11.8%, so this is pretty stunning. He’s allowed 9.4% Barrels/BBE, despite just a 26.4% hard hit rate. Aside from a 3.60 xERA, his next best estimators is a 4.29 FIP. His velocity is down nearly a mph and has trended lower with each start. He’s basically throwing the same pitches with the same shape. I’m at a loss here. He does have career bests through three starts in O-Swing (40.5%) and Z-Contact (80%). PitchingBot (3.89 ERA) loves the changeup (66 grade) and hates the cutter (39). Anderson has just a 91 Stuff+ mark, but commands it well (101 Pitching+). I did not think I would be writing this many words about Tyler Anderson all year.
Opp wRC+: 108 (11.6 BB%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.46
Ten strikeouts on a 17.6 SwStr% with just two base runners will work, even if Nick Lodolo’s first start of the season was against the White Sox. Both is curveball (36.3%) and four-seam (45.1%) get grades above 55 in that game (PitchingBot), even if he walked away with just a 94 Stuff+ rating. Projection systems see him somewhere around a four ERA this year.
Opp wRC+: 131 (8.7 K-BB%)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 4.38
There is no line on this game yet with Lodolo unconfirmed.
Red Sox @ Pirates
Brayan Bello is coming off his best start of the season against the Angels, striking out eight of 23 batters, allowing two runs over 5.1 innings. He’s dropped the four-seamer he threw 20% of the time last year (it seems to be an organizational mandate) and split the difference between his other three pitches. The pitching models like what they see (3.24 Bot ERA, 102 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+) with all three pitches grading above 50. The Red Sox are looking for more consistency than last year. Four of Bello’s five barrels (7.9%) have left the yard, which explains why his 4.75 ERA is more than half a run above all other estimators. If he puts/keeps it together, we’re probably looking at the upside of a mid-rotation arm on a good team or a two on a lesser one.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -4
B30: 3.69
I was shocked to see a 50 Future Value grade sitting on Quinn Priester’s Fangraphs page. Basically, they love the curveball (70 grade) and like the command potential (55). Everything else has an upside of par or worse. He pitched 50 innings last year with just a 3.8 K-BB% and a 47 Hard%, including 14 barrels (8.3%), despite 52.4% of his contact on the ground. In about 130 innings at AAA in three different stints, Priester has a 15 K-BB%. Projection systems are not impressed and forecast him around four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: -7.5
B30: 3.50
With Priester unconfirmed at the time of this writing, there’s no line on this game either. Three games and no lines. We move on.
White Sox @ Phillies
Both of these teams have found viable pitchers, but in Chicago’s case, it might be an Ace. Through four starts Garrett Crochet has struck out 35.2% of the batters he’s faced (15.8 SwStr%) with just four walks (three in his last start). He’s allowed a 44.2 Hard%, but just two barrels, while a 3.21 DRA is not only his worst estimator, but the only one within a full run of his 3.57 ERA (64 LOB%). Crochet throws three pitches more than 2% of the time and PitchingBot gives them all a 61/62 grade (113 Stuff+). One thing to keep an eye on is a full mph velocity drop in three of his four starts (97.6, 96.6, 96.6, 95.6).
Opp wRC+: 104 (10.9 BB%)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.98
Spencer Turnbull is another sweeper disciple and it’s changed his game (30.4% usage, .235 wOBA, .263 xwOBA, 31.5 Whiff%, 2.9 RV/100). PitchingBot gives his slider a 52 grade, but it’s unclear if they’re talking about the sweeper or the standard slider he also occasionally throws. While Turnbull has struck out 16 of 61 batters he’s only reached a double digit SwStr% in one of his three starts. His last start, against Pittsburgh, was his worst to date with four walks, but Turnbull doesn’t have an estimators reaching four yet.
Opp wRC+: 73 (37 L7days)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.64
I can’t imagine hitter friendly weather in this one and we have one pitcher who has been dominant through four starts against one who has been competent and may be facing the worst lineup in the league. Let’s go with a low scoring F5 (u4.5 -115). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network to get the info earlier.)
Update: We don't have good pitching weather, but it's one of the least unfriendly environments tonight with a hitter friendly umpire (Carlos Torres via Swish Analytics). Though the line has increased to 4.5u -150 (F5) and I probably would no longer play it at that price.
Astros @ Nationals
Two seasons ago, Justin Verlander returned from Tommy John surgery and won a Cy Young. It was a heck of an accomplishment for a 39 year-old pitcher even if there were warning signs already in place. Last year, he was injured and at times ineffective. His velocity was down and even when he was effective, he wasn’t Justin Verlander effective. This year, he gets a projection a bit above four, which is nearly a league average pitcher and I’d struggle to argue against it.
Opp wRC+: 109 (12 K-BB%)
DEF: 2
B30: 4.3
While Mackenzie Gore’s most dominant outing came in Oakland last time out (11 Ks, 17.8 SwStr%), he’s been pretty good in all three of his starts. Up nearly two mph, Gore has been dominating with the fastball (53%, 1.5 RV/100, 30.3 Whiff%, .266 xwOBA, 68 PB grade). Overall Gore has struck out 23 of the 65 batters he’s faced (27.7 K-BB%) with estimators ranging from a 2.45 FIP to a 3.77 ERA. The fact that he has a reverse split (LHBs > .370 wOBA and xwOBA since last year) should help him against the Astros, who despite their offensive prowess, have been a bottom 10 team against four-seamers (0.29 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 140 (4.4 K-BB%)
DEF: -5.5
B30: 3.49
Is Gore better than Verlander now? He may not be, but it’s a lot closer than most anticipated. The Washington offense has not only been better than expected, but actually good. Which of these teams was supposed to have the good bullpen again? I’ll happily take the big price (+148) on the home team that just swept the Dodgers in L.A. against the last place team. (Follow RockyJade on the Action Network to get the info as sooner.)
Rays @ Yankees
Have the Rays made Tyler Alexander an Ace yet? No (4.28 xERA best estimator, 10 K-BB%, 24.5 GB%, 9.4% Barrels/BBE). Those numbers likely won’t play well in Yankee Stadium against this lineup. Is he even pitching Friday? We do not know yet.
Opp wRC+: 120 (7.7 K-BB%)
DEF: 1
B30: 5.35 (projected to be the best, but actually the worst)
Pitching models love the stuff (3.62 Bot ERA, 110 Stuff+) and Clarke Schmidt has been giving us glimpses of why this season (25.4 K%, 79.2 Z-Contact%, 2.6% Barrels/BBE). A 4.19 SIERA is his only estimator more than half a run removed from his 3.68 ERA and just by the smallest of margins. However, he’s also walked eight of 63 batters. Another thing to note in this specific spot is that there’s about a 50 point wOBA and xwOBA split between his performance against LHBs and RHBs, while the Rays don’t have enough LHBs to exploit this weakness.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.42
DFS Notes: The first thing to note that applies to the entire slate is that we have a range of pitcher friendly weather to downright nasty weather in just about every park tonight without a single protected environment. Around 50 degrees with wind blowing in from right (10 mph) here. As mentioned above, the Rays don’t have the LHBs to exploit Schmidt’s major weakness and with the weather boost, I like him at $7.9K. He is in my initial single entry lineup, where I’m paying down for pitching (more on why later). The Rays have the fifth lowest implied run line (3.7), while the Yankees have the fifth highest (4.8). Richie Palacios (116 wRC+, .196 ISO v RHP since LY) is probably the only Tampa Bay bat of interest (RHBs .305 wOBA, .292 xwOBA against Schmidt since last year). I don’t currently have any Yankees rostered in single entry, but Rizzo, Verdugo and Cabrera are the only bats in the projected lineup below a 125 wRC+ or .190 ISO against southpaws since last season.
Athletics @ Guardians
Joe Boyle throws his fastball hard (96.4 mph), but maybe too often (62.6%) and not too well (45 PitchingBot grade, .353 wOBA, .389 xwOBA against. He has struck out 15 of 61 batters, but with just an 8.9 SwStr% and 13.1 BB%. He has only allowed 11 hard hit balls (29.7%) in three starts with just one barrel. That said, non-FIP estimators (no home runs) range from a 4.22 xERA to a 5.00 DRA.
Opp wRC+: 103 (20 K%)
DEF: -2
B30: 3.54
Triston McKenzie has been shelled in two of his three starts, the only exception being 5.2 shutout innings against the White Sox with four walks and two strikeouts. His velocity is down 1.5 mph from last year (90.9 mph), he has just a 5.6 SwStr% and a -11.3 K-BB%. All estimators are above six.
Opp wRC+: 80 (27 K%)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.22
Without much confidence in Boyle or the Oakland offense, McKenzie has been THAT bad this season. He should not be a large favorite (OAK +150 F5) over any team. Going F5 gives me the same price as the full game without having to deal with a bullpen disadvantage (not that the Oakland bullpen has been bad).
DFS Notes: Cold with double digit winds, but blowing more left to right than in or out. Still, no thank you to either of these pitchers with the Guardians very contact prone and, well, McKenzie. The A’s have the second lowest run total on the board (3.5), but this is where I’m looking for cheap bats, like Abraham Toro (111 wRC+, .143 ISO v RHP since LY). The Guardians are sort of a separating line (4.5) with a drop to 4.25 runs and then below four behind them. In a small sample, Boyle has had a massive platoon split (LHBs > .340 wOBA, xwOBA – RHBs < .200). You want LH Cleveland bats, if any.
Rangers @ Braves
Since striking out seven Rays without a walk in his first start (16.7 SwStr%), Andrew Heaney has struck out just three Astros, while walking seven (8.1 SwStr%) in his last two. If you’re looking for a positive, he has allowed just one barrel (3.73 xERA). All other estimators are above four and a half. If you don’t want to judge him specifically one what the Astros have done to him, Pitching Bot thinks the four-seamer he’s throwing 59% of the time is average (52 grade), but Heaney has just an overall 85 Stuff+ grade (96 Pitching+). At least he doesn’t have to face the Astros again. Oh, wait…sorry.
Opp wRC+: 112
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.16
So, Chris Sale is healthy and back? Velocity back up to 94.7 mph with a 28.2 K% (14.6 SwStr%). Check. 79.3 Z-Contact% & 21.1 Z-O-Swing%. Check. 85.7 mph EV and 31.1 Hard%. Check. Great slider (58 PitchingBot grade, 35.8 Whiff%). Check. Great fastball (45 PitchingBot grade, .392 xwOBA). Ch…what?? Hmm. Sale has a 108 Stuff+ overall, but just a 98 Pitching+ (3.66 Bot ERA). A 4.17 xERA is also his worst estimator, despite the glowing contact profile. The 4.58 ERA appears to be a function of a 65.9 LOB%. The numbers don’t entirely mesh with the results, but I don’t know why. The Rangers have struggled against sliders though (-0.28 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 83
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.93
DFS Notes: The list of offenses above five implied runs outside Coors includes the Braves (5.54) and nobody else. This is the only game on the slate where we’re expecting temperatures above 60 degrees and it even gets to 80 degrees at game start with a slight wind blowing out to left for extra benefit. I am doing everything I can to jam Braves into my single entry lineup against Home Run Heaney and that means paying down for pitching. Arcia (163 wRC+, .277 ISO v LHP since last year) and D’arnaud (115, .161) are more affordable ways to gain some exposure, while David Fletcher (43, .103) is a downright punt who could score or drive in a run or two. Chris Sale is one of the top pitchers on the board tonight, but is also one of the most expensive in what may be the most hitter friendly environment on the board.
Orioles @ Royals
People are still waiting for the Dean Kremer breakout. Maybe it’s the new splitter with the 40% whiff rate. But he’s only thrown it 40 times. He threw it least often (9.4%) in his latest start, where the Brewers smashed him (eight runs, two home runs, four barrels). Kremer has allowed eight barrels on the season, striking out just 14 of 72 batters (8.8 SwStr%). Estimators are all over the place, from a 3.84 SIERA (2.8 BB%) to a 6.42 xERA. PitchingBot (2.97) likes all his pitchers except for his splitter (47 grade). Stuff+ doesn’t like the overall package (89), but thinks he uses it well (104 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 3.5
B30: 2.88
Alec Marsh looked like he was tossing batting practice against the Mets. No balls, two strikes…here it is. Hit it. His velocity has also dropped in his last two starts, in which he’s struck out just five of 44 batters (7.1 SwStr%) and one of those starts was against the White Sox. Contact inclusive estimators are below four (one home run, two barrels) and I don’t know how with his location. (Go ahead, look at his heat maps. Big red spots right in the middle on all of his pitches.) Batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 132 (161 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.68
I don’t trust either one of these starters against solid lineups (o4.5 -138 F5).
DFS Notes: Temp just below 60 with light wind maybe in from left. The Orioles are a top five offense and if I can’t stack Braves (or even if I am), the Orioles are my second favored stack. Ryan O’Hearn (131 wRC+, .199 ISO v RHP since LY, 201 wRC+ this season overall) is my favorite value play on the board. Mountcastle and Holliday are the only two batters in the projected lineup below a 110 wRC+ against RHP since last season. Rutschman is the only other one below a .180 ISO, but is still a top catcher tonight. I don’t have a ton of interest in Kansas City bats at just 4.23 implied runs, but LHBs have a .371 xwOBA against Kremer since last year.
Tigers @ Twins
Everyone has been waiting for Jack Flaherty to recapture the magic he had for half a season five years ago. People were excited when his velocity was up this spring. However, it’s only been up slightly (93.7 mph) through three starts against three of the worst offenses in the league this year that’s resulted in a 4.96 ERA. Hang on. There’s good news. Flaherty has a 14.6 SwStr%, as he’s struck out 20 of 79 batters with just three walks. He’s allowed a home run in every start, but just three barrels. A 4.13 FIP is his only estimator above four. Pitch modeling doesn’t like anything except his slider (57 PitchingBot grade) with a 93 Stuff+ and 4.17 Bot ERA. There’s still enough to be optimistic about and he’s facing the Twins again.
Opp wRC+: 76 (27.6 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.87
Increased velocity (+1.1 mph) and a standard slider (he already threw a sweeper) were going to help Joe Ryan beat his hard contact issues. And they have! With a 31.4 K-BB%, he’s still allowed five barrels, but just a 34.9 Hard%. Aside from a 3.56 DRA (who knows sometimes?) all other estimators are BELOW his 2.60 ERA. He’s only thrown the new slider 35 times with a 15.8 Whiff%, but .155 xwOBA). Every pitch he’s thrown more than four times has a PitchingBot grade of 55 or better and while he has just an 89 Stuff+ (I dunno), he has a 106 Pitching+ and 2.64 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 83 (25.2 K%)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.38
With two strong starters, one a Cy Young contender at this pace and two awful offenses with a ton of Ks, I’m forecasting a low scoring game. The Detroit defense has been great, as has the Minnesota offense, while the Minnesota defense and Detroit bullpen have been fine too. (u7 -102)
DFS Notes: My only fear here is that it may be too cold for pitchers (40 degrees). Wind blowing out at nearly 20 mph (and gusts near 40) may temper the pitching advantage here, but that’s really what I’m looking for here: pitching. From the paragraphs above, I really like Jack Flaherty tonight ($7.7K DK). So many Ks in a struggling offense for a pitcher who appears to be better than his ERA. If paying up for pitching, Joe Ryan would be my top guy for similar reasons. Minnesota bats have more of a history of hitting for power if you’re going that route, while the Detroit bats may have better pedigree to do so in the future. Both of these pitchers have been home run prone in the past. The Tigers have the lowest run total on the board (3.18), but neither reaches four implied runs.
Brewers @ Cardinals
Freddy Peralta has struck out at least seven in all three starts (14.4 SwStr%, 36.4 K-BB%). He’s allowed four barrels, which is 11.1% of his contact because he’s only allowed 36 batted balls over three starts (17.2 IP). He doesn’t have an estimators above his 2.55 ERA (oh, wait, there’s a 3.64 DRA again). PitchingBot loves his four-seamer (54.1% usage, 64 grade and the Cardinals have been a bottom five offenses against fastballs (-1.1 wFA/C). Peralta has a crazy 114 Stuff+ and 111 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 87
DEF: 2
B30: 3.6
Kyle Gibson has a 6.6 K-BB% and has allowed nine barrels (15.3%). His best estimator is a 4.48 xFIP and LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 126
DEF: -1
B30: 3.11
Peralta’s estimators are about half of what Gibson’s are and the Brewers have a near 40 point wRC+ edge against RHP. Why are the Brewers just a small favorite (-128 F5 because STL bullpen numbers have been better).
DFS Notes: Guess what? Cool (60 to start) with light wind blowing in. Absolutely Peralta if you want to pay the highest price on the board. Both teams have an implied run line of 3.75 (which I think is a mistake, as you can read above). A polite no thank you to Kyle Gibson here. The projected Milwaukee lineup includes five above a 125 wRC+ this season overall, but not anyone who played last season above a 115 wRC+ against RHP since then.
Mariners @ Rockies
Moveable objects meet resistible forces. Both of these pitchers have a sub-17 K% through three starts this year. Both of these offenses exceed a 27 K% against RHP this year. Hancock adds a 51% hard hit rate to his inability to miss bats, while RHBs have a .402 wOBA and .375 xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 87 (19.7 K-BB%)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.82
PitchingBot does not think Dakota Hudson throws an above average pitch, while batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Just one of his four barrels has left the yard, which is why a 3.72 FIP is his only estimator below a 4.15 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 93 (30.5 K%)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.7
DFS Notes: It’s two very hittable pitchers at Coors!! It’s also just above freezing with a double digit wind blowing in from center. The Mariners still tie the Braves for top team run total (5.59) with the Rockies among the top five as well (4.91). I’m certainly considering going underweight on the home team in multi-entry (and have nobody from this game in single entry). McMahon and Jones are the only projected Rockies above a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last year. McMahon, Tovar and Doyle are the only projected Rockies above a 100 wRC+ in total this year. Haniger and Rojas are the only projected Mariners above a 110 wRC+ overall this year. I’m probably going underweight on Mariners too, although Haniger, France and Rojas are the only projected Mariners below a 110 wRC+ and .180 ISO against RHP since last season (among those who played last season). It’s Mariners or nothing for me here with J.P. Crawford (129, .189) one of the top middle infielders on the board.
Blue Jays @ Padres
Yariel Rodriguez intrigued the Blue Jays in the WBC last year and then struck out 10 of the 24 batters he faced at AAA this season before striking out six of 16 Rockies in his debut (13.2 SwStr%). Four of his eight batted balls reached a 95 mph EV, but that doesn’t tell us much. Rodrgiuez is four-seam, slider 86% of the time and will probably need a third pitch at some point, but pitch modeling liked his initial effort (101 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+, 3.12 Bot ERA, Slider 63 grade). Fangraphs gives the slider a 70 grade, the fastball a 60 and the command a 50 with a 45 Future Value grade overall.
Opp wRC+: 113 (19 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.77 (Got Romano and Swanson back this week)
Matt Waldron tosses the knuckleball about one-third of the time. While he has a 24.2 K% through three starts, he does so with just a 7.8 SwStr%, not reaching double digits in any of his starts. Just one of his four barrels has left the bat as well, so I’d have to be cautious about estimators that range from a 3.13 FIP all the way up to a 4.89 DRA. The knuckleball has been worth -1.4 RV/100, but isn’t measured by pitch modeling systems.
Opp wRC+: 100 (10.6 K-BB%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.29
DFS Notes: Quite honestly, I don’t know what to do here, so maybe doing nothing is appropriate. Temps don’t get above 60 in an already pitcher friendly park. Rodriguez is intriguing, but it doesn’t sound like they’ll let him go deep and there are even rumors of a Bowden Francis piggyback. Neither team strikes out a lot. Both offenses have team totals at 4.25 runs. The Blue Jays don’t have a projected batter above a .200 ISO against RHP since last season and guess what? Neither do the Padres.
Mets @ Dodgers
Sean Manaea looked like a new pitcher through two starts before getting smoked by the Royals last time out. Despite the eight runs (six earned), Manaea did have a 13.5 SwStr%, while striking out just four of 24 batters. However, his velocity plummeted to 91 mph after sitting closer to 93 mph in his first two starts. He also still may not have a pitch to get RHBs out with his cutter and changeup grading poorly (40 PitchingBot each). He’s only faced two LHBs and has taken to utilizing his sweeper against RHBs (.128 xwOBA, 57.1 Whiff%), but can it last. Manaea has an overall 4.82 Bot ERA and 84 Stuff+ (96 Pitching+). He’s also allowed five barrels for a 5.13 xERA, though contact neutral estimators are more optimistic with a 27.7 K% (10.8 BB%). One interesting note is that PitchingBot does like his fastball (54 grade), while the Dodgers have been the fifth worst offense in the majors against four-seamers (-0.82 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: -3
B30: 3.09
Twice the Padres have irritated Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They’re responsible for all eight runs he’s allowed over six innings with four of his six barrels (15%). Also interesting to note that he’s not gone beyond five innings or 21 batters faced in any of his starts. The overall numbers look great (25.7 K-BB%, all estimators below three and a half. Pitching models like the stuff too (60 grade fastball, 59 curve, 56 splitter, 2.95 Bot ERA, but 101 Stuff+ & 105 Pitching+), but the word is that the fastball is hittable (.407 xwOBA) and the Mets have been the fourth best offense against four-seamers (-0.67 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 95 (but 9.3 K-BB% and 132 wRC+ L7 days)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.18.
The Mets have been hot. The Dodgers have not. While I’m concerned about some of Manaea’s numbers, I’m really concerned about the Dodgers’ performance against fastballs, while the Mets’ have impressed against fastballs and are facing a pitcher who may be throwing a hittable one 41.5% of the time tonight. The New York bullpen has also been hot. (NYM +168).
DFS Notes: If you’re buying into Manaea’s history and some of the more concerning numbers above, it’s RH Dodger bats all day. They have the third highest team total (4.99), though it’s not expected to reach 60 degrees here either. Mookie Betts (190 wRC+, .368 ISO v LHP since LY) is absolutely a top bat. Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez also exceed 120 and .190 over the same span. The other side is a bit trickier. Yamamoto is not going deep in games and makes him difficult to pay up for against a tough offense. Lindor is down to a 100 wRC+ and .162 ISO against RHP since last year, but Nimmo, Alonso, Alvarez and D.J. Stewart all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .220 ISO against RHP over that same span. RHBs are at a .331 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against Yamamoto so far. Not that I’m rushing to roster any of them (3.51 team total), but it’s a contrarian thought.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Major projection systems are projecting Jordan Montgomery for an ERA a bit below four, but nearly a quarter run higher than his career ERA for some reason, when he’s been better than that the last couple of seasons. His strikeout rate (21.6%) and K-BB (16%) have actually decreased over that span, perhaps explaining the discrepancy, with the contact profile about average. Montgomery struck out nine of 39 batters with five walks and two home runs while ramping up at AAA. He faced 18 and then 21 batters and should be ready for a full workload tonight.
Opp wRC+: 102 (20.5 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.76
Blake Snell has struck out nine of 34 batters (14 SwStr%) with four walks, so everything seems right in the world. What about the 10 runs and two home runs? Well, there is the .368 BABIP, 29.4 LOB% and 40 HR/FB (both barrels have left the yard) that will regress, but don’t expect anything near last year’s performance when he beat all estimators by a large margin (.256 BABIP, 86.7 LOB%). The stuff is still there (109 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+) and PitchingBot (3.41 ERA) grades all his pitches 54 or better, including a 67 slider.
Opp wRC+: 129 (15 K%)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.99
DFS Notes: What do we do here? I’m guessing most people will expect Montgomery to suffer some from missing time, as Snell and pitchers who have chosen this route before them have occasionally done, but Montgomery has generally been a less volatile pitcher than Snell. Both teams are below four implied runs and it’s another cold weather spot in a pitcher friendly park. Snell could be a sneaky contrarian pick. I wouldn’t expect many to be on him here and even though five in the projected Arizona lineup are below a 15 K% against LHP since last year, when Snell is on, he can rack up Ks against any lineup. Everyone in that projected lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ against LHP since last year too though. Montgomery is only slightly cheaper and will face a bit of a stars and scrubs lineup. Flores, Soler, Chapman and Murphy all exceed a 125 wRC+ and .185 ISO against LHP since last season with nobody else above 115 or .150.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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