We get to play with five games on Thursday, though this is not a bland slate. There are a few things to talk about and we’re going to cover every one of them, but no DFS notes again with only two night games. I’ve created a legend at the bottom of the page, explaining some of the shorthand statistics.
All stats through Tuesday.
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Angels @ Rays
Griffin Canning has gotten shelled for at least four earned runs in every start this year with just 28.6% of his contact on the ground and eight barrels (16.3%). His 18.4 K% would easily be the lowest mark of his career. The velocity is down two full mph, yet he’s increased his four-seam usage five points to 39.3% this year. Batters exceed a .500 wOBA and xwOBA against it. Canning has one estimators (4.64 SIERA) below five, which includes a 5.73 Bot ERA with PitchingBot giving his fastball a mere 32 grade. He’ll find no asylum with the other pitch modeling system either (83 Stuff+, 90 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.54
When the Rays traded Tyler Glasnow for Ryan Pepiot and others, I was convinced that Pepiot would become the next Glasnow. While that hasn’t happened yet, all estimators are more than a run below his 5.40 ERA through three starts (54.7 LOB%) with three of his four barrels (10%) leaving the yard. He’s sitting on a 14.3 SwStr% and 23.1 K-BB%, as well with a near half a mph velocity increase. In his most recent starts, he’s elevating the heat (3.2 RV/100) and dropping the slider and changeup near the bottom of the strike zone. PitchingBot (3.75 ERA) recognizes all three pitches between 52 and 56 grades and the entire package receives a glowing 112 Stuff+. Pepiot could be a thing that’s happening this year.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 2.5
B30: 5.4
With all else appearing equal (and it's probably not, even if it currently appears to be), I'd have a lean towards the Rays at anything less than -150 (F5). They just aren't hitting and the bullpen appears to be broken. Instead of being the best pen in the league they were projected to be, they've been the worst. The Rays did this last year too, though, before turning into the best bullpen in baseball in the second half.
Rangers @ Tigers
Jack Leiter walked 13.2% In 92.2 innings at AA in 2022, then 13.4% in 81.2 innings at the same level last year before being promoted to AAA and walking two of 20 batters faced. So far, he’s walked just three of 57 batters, after walking a reasonable five of 52 this spring. Aside from the 20 batters at AA last year, Leiter hasn’t run a strikeout rate below 25% yet. Some are still worried about his control issues, but his father had the same problems and took a while to become the pitcher he was expected to be. Fangraphs sees it that way as well with a 60 Future Value grade on both his fastball and slider, but with below average command and an all-around 50 FV grade. None of the major projection systems are a fan, all seeing him above four and a half at the major league level this year.
Opp wRC+: 79 (76 at Home, 72 L7days)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.23
In his first two starts, Kenta Maeda struck out and walked five each against the two worst offenses in the league (White Sox and A’s). He struck out five of 24 Twins (another struggling and strikeout prone offense) without a walk, but his velocity has been inching up towards the 90 mph mark after sitting at 88.9 and 89.2 mph in his first two starts and 91 mph last year. Reclaiming some velocity could go a long way to making him a more efficient pitcher, as the split finger is still doing it’s thing (3.4 RV/100, .208 xwOBA, 53 PitchingBot grade). The fastball (-3.6 RV/100, .511 xwOBA, 40 grade) is not and has led to an overall 84 Stuff+ (93 Pitching+). Maeda’s non-FIP estimators (all four barrels in his first two starts left the park) range from 4.86 (SIERA) to 5.15 (xERA). It all depends on what he can do with that fastball to set up the splitter. The Rangers have been the eighth best offenses against four-seamers (0.3 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 117
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.92
I would have some interest in the Rangers should they become the clear dog here (even money currently) at plus money. Or, you could just look to see how Maeda is throwing and play it live.
Guardians @ Red Sox
How the hell does Carlos Carrasco have a 3.55 ERA, 3.69 xERA and 3.88 FIP after three starts? Contact neutral estimators exceed four and a half. He’s struck out just 11 of 55 batters (9.8 SwStr%) and walked nine with a 44.1% hard hit rate, but just one barrel. He did average his highest velocity of the season last time out, but even that would have only matched his worst game last year…when he got pummeled for a 6.80 ERA!! Overall, he’s down two mph and his heat maps have a lot of red in the middle of the plate. Carrasco has thrown six different pitches, none more than 28.2% of the time and perhaps that’s for the best with his sinker and slider grading 40 or worst (PitchingBot) and only his slider (55) even being average. Here’s a real stunner though, while Carrasco currently holds a 5.53 Bot ERA, he has a 99 Stuff+. I don’t see how. Batters from either side of the plate range from a .370 to .394 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 1
B30: 3.34
It’s unconfirmed, but rumor is that Cooper Criswell is expected to be involved in some sort of bullpen effort from the Red Sox, but may not start. In Criswell’s only action this year, he struck out four of 18 Angels with just a 6.0 SwStr%, but only three hard hit balls (23.1%). The velocity on his sinker was up a full mph, but even that meant only 89.4. Criswell has completed 41.2 major league innings with an 18.2 K%, but just seven barrels (5%). LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 112 (19.4 K%)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.73
There is no line on this game with Boston pitching plans not yet revealed.
Marlins @ Cubs
A.J. Puk has been a disaster with a -10.3 K-BB% through three starts. Does it even matter he’s allowed just a single Barrel? He still has a 5.64 xERA and 94 Stuff+ and Pitching+. PitchingBot grades the pitch he uses the most (39% four-seam fastball) as his worst (41). Puk also has a large platoon split with RHBs 50 points (wOBA and xwOBA) better than LHBs against him.
Opp wRC+: 139 (17.5 K%, 16.7 HR/FB)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.65
Jameson Taillon makes his first start of the season. Last year, his 4.84 ERA was above, but within half a run of his estimators. The 15.1 K-BB% was fine and right on his career mark (15.7%). The 50 barrels (10.7%) were not. In fact, his rate of Barrels/BBE has increased each season since leaving the Pirates. Major projection systems all have him around four and a half this year. Taillon, too, had major platoon issues last season with LHBs over 80 points better (wOBA and xwOBA) against him than RHBs.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.42
If Puk is going to continue with those peripherals, any decent team should probably be at least a two to one favorite over him (he probably also won’t be starting for very long). I want to see what the forecast looks like in the morning before deciding whether to move against him in some manner or not.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Ryne Nelson has only struck out 11 of 64 batters, but with an 11.0 SwStr% (13.4% last two starts against the Braves and Cardinals). He’s had a tough schedule so far with estimators all more than a half run below his 5.27 ERA and they don’t even take into consideration his SwStr%, just his strikeout rate. Nelson’s velocity is up a mph and he’s been dotting his pitches on the edges of the zone, aside from letting his fastball occasionally leak into the middle of the plate, resulting in a .348 wOBA against it, despite an increase of 10 points in its whiff rate so far. Pitch modeling sees the improvement with Pitching Bot (3.59 ERA) giving only the cutter (49) a below average grade and just barely. He’s sitting on a 102 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+. I hesitate to call it a breakout, but it could be something interesting. He has to figure out LHBs (.372 wOBA, .371 xwOBA since last season) and it hasn’t been the changeup (.497 wOBA, .465 xwOBA this year).
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.66
Logan Webb is the only pitcher on the slate to be making his fifth start of the year and it hasn’t been all that yet. He’s struck out just 17 of 100 batters with a 6.4 SwStr% and only half his contact on the ground (50.6% is low for him). However, he’s only walked five and allowed three barrels. His 3.80 ERA matches a 3.79 SIERA, though with just one of his barrels leaving the park, Webb has a 3.12 FIP, but 5.22 xERA with all other estimators sitting somewhere in between. The good news is that pitch modeling still loves the stuff (3.21 Bot ERA, 108 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+), while all three of his pitches grade above average. In fact, the slider (61) and changeup (59) have been the only two pitches the Diamondbacks have struggled with this season (aside from a small sample of splitters), sneakily making this a better matchup for Webb.
Opp wRC+: 94 (but 5.9 K-BB%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.24
I have a lean towards Arizona here with a couple of things keeping me away right now. First, the matchup favoring Webb’s strengths at individual pitch levels, as mentioned above and that pitch modeling sees Webb’s stuff as better than the performance and some estimators so far. At greater than +150, I’d have to more strongly consider.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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