I'm figuring that some content is better than no content two days in a row when trying to build a brand, so here are some game breakdowns for Wednesday afternoon. I'll try to circle back and get to some more as new information rolls in and time permits in the morning/afternoon, but likely won't get to all of them. DFS notes will be omitted both Wednesday and Thursday with a combined five evening/night games between them.
All stats through Monday so far.
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Giants @ Marlins
Both of these pitchers have estimators around four and an ERA closer to five through three starts with a 9.1 K-BB% (Keaton Winn) and an 8.3 K-BB% (Trevor Rogers). Both have generated more than half their contact (Winn 59.1%, Rogers 51%) on the ground. That’s where our similarities end. Winn has allowed 9.1% Barrels/BBE on a 47.7% hard hit rate, while pitch measuring systems love his stuff (115 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 3.70 Bot ERA). PitchingBot also likes his favored pitch, the splitter (41.9% usage, 1.2 RV/100, 60 PB grade). Why is his ERA so high? The strand rate matches the ground ball rate (59.1%).
Opp wRC+: 86 (65 at home, 71 L7 days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.14
Rogers has allowed just one barrel, despite a 44% hard hit rate. None of his offerings grade as high as Winn’s splitter, but PitchingBot hates his slider (19.1% usage, -1 RV/100, 38 grade). Both his Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks sit at 95.
Opp wRC+: 120 (16.6 K%) (111 on road, 122 L7 days)
DEF: -8
B30: 4.64
The starting pitching matchup may be close, while still leaning in Winn’s direction by individual pitch metrics, but find me anywhere else where the Marlins are even close to the Giants. That’s why I like the Giants as a small road favorite (-118) (Follow RockyJade on Action Network and get the analysis in real time.)
Update: The line has moved 1.3% against the Giants (-112).
Twins @ Orioles
Will now be Pablo Lopez against Albert Suarez, who hasn't pitched in the major leagues since 2017.
Pirates @ Mets
Not much to note here. Having watched all of Luis Severino's starts, I think the estimators around four peg him much better than the 3.00 ERA. His 25 K% comes with a 7.9 SwStr%. He's better than last year's disaster, but we all probably knew that already, though the old Severino may be gone for good, making him a useful mid to back end of the rotation starter.
As for Bailey Falter, all estimators exceed his 4.20 ERA.
Rangers @ Tigers
This is the game with the most weather concern today, but everything points to a lower scoring game from weather (wind in 13 mph), a pitcher friendly umpire (Nestor Ceja via SwishAnalytics) and the Tigers (Skubal + a punchless offense thus far - 79 wRC+ v RHP). The Rangers have just a 93 wRC+ against LHP too.
Padres @ Brewers
This now appears to be some sort of bullpen production from the Brewers, led off by Bryse Wilson. I'm not sure what to make of the situation, nor the uneven start to the season by Michael King, who currently doesn't have an estimator below five.
Braves @ Astros
Max Fried got himself right against the Marlins. Despite striking out just four of 24 batters, he did so with an 11.8 SwStr% and more than 60% of his contact on the ground. Noted before that start here, the velocity is fine. The stuff looks similar to last year. It just looks like he’s hung a few too many pitches. He now has generated more than 60% of his contact on the ground with just two barrels allowed. The 8.9 K-BB% still needs work, but estimators are ranging from a 3.28 DRA to a 4.39 xERA. He doesn’t have a pitch graded below 52 this year by PitchingBot (3.79 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 129 wRC+ (15.5 K%) (153 at home, 137 L7 days)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.85
With a 3.8 HR/FB, J.P. France has a 4.07 FIP through three starts, his only estimator below five. His 25 LD% is almost higher than his 28.6 GB%. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .315 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. The cutter is the only pitch he’s thrown more than six times that PitchingBot sees as even an average offering (5.43 Bot ERA, 87 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 142 (135 on the road, 115 L7 days)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.51
I’m not picking on Max Fried when I say that I expect some runs to be scored here, but he’s facing a really tough lineup that doesn’t strike out a lot with a marginal (at best) defense behind him. Oh, and the Braves are pretty damn good too, facing a poor pitcher and pen so far. Let’s go Over 9 here. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network to get the info in real time.)
Update: This total has inched up and is at 9.5 in some places.
Royals @ White Sox
This is now a double-header with unconfirmed starters for Game 2. Is it still going to be Michael Wacha (3.15 xERA) against Erick Fedde (7.00 xERA)? Sportsbooks still have it lined up that was with the Royals as large favorites (-168) and it's likely warranted.
Yankees @ Blue Jays
Marcus Stroman has a 2.12 ERA with estimators ranging from a 3.40 FIP to a 3.77 SIERA. Pretty tight range, huh? What he’s doing well is generating a lot of weak contact (27.3 Hard%) on the ground (55.8%). What he’s not doing well is balls and strikes (8.8 SwStr%, 10.1 BB%). And the pitching models (PitchingBot, Stuff+) do NOT like his stuff (5.94 Bot ERA, 92 Stuff+ & Pitching+). His sinker is a stinker (38.1% usage, 41 PitchingBot grade) and none of his pitches grade above 47, suggesting that his nice start could collapse.
Opp wRC+: 98 (7.9 HR/FB, but 10.9 K-BB%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.39
Kevin Gausman’s three starts have totaled 9.1 innings. He does have a 13.6 SwStr% and 4.2 BB%, but just a 20.8 K%, 29.4 GB% & LD% and has allowed 17.6% Barrels/BBE (50% hard hit rate). Basically, the opposite of Stroman, but it continues. Pitching models still LOVE his stuff (3.39 Bot ERA, 99 Stuff+, but 110 Pitching+), especially his splitter (41.4% usage, 63 grade). Gausman’s velocity did plummet in his second start, but partially recovered in his third. All this suggests that he should have better days ahead, should he be healthy.
Opp wRC+: 118 (7.4 K-BB%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.77
If I had been going strictly by estimators (which don't consider SwStr% in relation to K%), I'd probably be interested in the Yankees here, but those SwStr% marks, along with pitch modeling gives us a deeper look and enables better decisions.
Nationals @ Dodgers
I'm not buying on Jake Irvin's 21.5 K% with just a 6.9 SwStr%. He had a knack for strikeouts without missing bats last year, but it's still a small sample and his CStr% isn't much better than average either. Therefore, I'm not buying on his contact neutral estimators around four either. The 4.73 xERA sounds more like it.
Opp wRC+: 121 (129 Home)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.60
Landon Knack has had mostly upper 20s strikeout rates in the minors with Fangraphs slapping a 40 Future Grade on the already 26 year-old and nearly 27 prospect. If everything breaks right, pitch and command grades suggest he has the upside of being average with major projection systems projecting him around there too (4.25).
Opp wRC+: 112 (11.0 K-BB% - how long can they keep this up?)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.28
If you're buying into Irvin's actual peripherals and Washington's offensive performance so far, what's to stop you from liking the Nationals at a big price here? I guess you'd have to have some faith that their bullpen were actually better than the Dodgers as well, but they have performed that way so far.
Cardinals @ Athletics
Steven Matz has allowed six runs, but only three earned with just a 12.9 K%. Non-FIP estimators are all above four. His velocity has also dropped a bit with each start. Some disagreement between PitchingBot, who likes his sinker (57) and changeup (57), making up 87.6% of his pitches (3.13 Bot ERA) and Stuff+ (87).
Opp wRC+: 79 (26.3 K-BB%)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.11
Paul Blackburn has not allowed a run over 19.1 innings. He’s only struck out 15.5% of batters, but with a 12.9 SwStr, while keeping 52.6% of his contact on the ground and only has one estimator above four (4.11 SIERA). His velocity dropped in his second start, but bounced back up for his third. He has a Stuff+ seven points higher than Matz, but a 3.94 Bot ERA (64 grade cutter).
Opp wRC+: 87 (17.3 K-BB%)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.67
I’d consider both pitchers a touch below average, but the real stunner is the St Louis offense or lack of it in a larger sample size than you can trust than Oakland against lefties. They do have a bullpen edge, but none defensively. So, why are the Cardinals even moderate road favorites (A’s +130).
Update: Gained a whopping 4.24% on the A's (now +110).
Cubs @ Diamondbacks
A pair of interesting young pitchers with ERAs well above estimators around four to start the season. Jordan Wicks has a 15.4 SwStr% (29.2 K%) over three starts with some issues in the contact profile (90 mph EV).
Opp wRC+: 122
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.10
We saw what Brandon Pfaadt was capable of in the post-season, but he's essentially going to go as far as his command takes him and it wasn't good, at least to begin his last start against the Cardinals. That said, he has an early 16.7 HR/FB with just 7.7% Barrels/BBE and a 28.8% hard hit rate.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.58
Reds @ Mariners
Andrew Abbott has just a 15.9 K% (6.3 SwStr%) through his first three, but has managed contact well, though just one of his four barrels has left the yard. Contact neutral estimators are closing in on five.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.28
Bryce Miller decided to basically can his splitter (just 13 thrown after 40 in his first two starts) in favor of more heaters and subsequently had his worst performance in terms of walks (three) and strikeouts (four) against the Cubs last time out, but still didn’t allow an earned run. While estimators range from a 3.56 xERA to a 4.90 DRA, others are hovering around four. PitchingBot grades the splitter, which has gotten the best results this year (3.5 RV/100 Statcast) as his best pitch (62), so I don’t know why he elected to cut down on its usage in favor of more four-seamers, though that pitch isn’t bad (1.6 RV/100, 56 grade), but that may perhaps be because of the split finger.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: -2
B30: 3.99
Rockies @ Phillies
Ryan Feltner is beginning to look like he might be a thing now, performing well against three competent offenses, he’s struck out 26.5% of the batters he’s faced (though 12 of his 20 against the Rays) with 52.4% of his contact on the ground and just 34.9% of it reaching a 95 mph EV. Mostly four-seam, slider, both of those offerings grade above a 50 via Pitching Bot with a 4.14 overall Bot ERA and 101 Stuff+. Feltner has a large split, RHBs < .300 wOBA and xwOBA since last year and is likely to face one more RHB than LHB.
Opp wRC+: 68 (80 home, 71 L7 days)
DEF: -3
B30: 4.86
Sinkerballer Cristopher Sanchez has pitched well in two of his three starts with estimators not too far off from his 3.52 ERA. He’s kept 60.9% of his contact on the ground, but with just a 11.8 K-BB%. His velocity was up to start the season, but has crept down slightly in each of his two subsequent starts. Besides the sinker (52) and slider (57), his only other offering is a slider (42 PitchingBot grade) that he throws 17.1% of the time. Here’s a stunner…Colorado is the top offense against sliders so far (1.76 wSL/C). Pitch modeling believes he and Feltner are fairly equal in the stuff department (102 Stuff+).
Opp wRC+: 71 (83 road, 76 L7 days)
DEF: 2
B30: 3.56
Both of these pitchers have been interesting. Only one of them was supposed to be. Both of these offenses stink. Only one was supposed to. Both surprises favor the Rockies. I don’t want anything to with a bullpen battle here, but will grab some Rockies (+180) in a potentially low scoring affair over the first half (u4.5 -120 F5).
Update: A couple of things to touch on here. The Rockies are sitting some guys today, which hurts our position on them slightly, though we've still actually gained nearly 1% since last night, but it does help the F5 under (now up to -140), as does the cool weather and pitcher friendly umpire (Brian O'Nora).
Angels @ Rays
Reid Detmers has struck out 26 of 64 batters with a 16.4 SwStr% and only two barrels and nine hard hit balls. While his velocity did drop last time out and resulted in a 12.2 SwStr%, his lowest mark of the year, it doesn’t seem particularly concerning. A 2.52 xERA and 3.23 DRA are his only estimators above two and a half, though it seems confusing that pitch modeling systems do not like him. PitchingBot sees one solidly above average pitch, a curveball he’s only thrown 43 times so far and slaps a 4.85 Bot ERA on him, while his Stuff+ (94) and Pitching+ (96) are also below average.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 2
B30: 4.65
Zack Littell is already nearly half way to his entire walk total from last year (12) with five through three starts, though he’s still dominating at the point of contact (1 Barrel, 25% hard hit rate). Contact inclusive estimators are a run above his 1.17 ERA, more neutral ones sit below four, then there’s DRA again (4.63). Pitch modeling absolutely hates his stuff as well (4.72 Bot ERA, all pitches below average grade, 74 Stuff+, 93 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 2
B30: 5.54
Initially, I thought Detmers should be favored in this affair, but backed off due to pitch modeling concerns and the fact that I also saw an opinion I respect on the other side. I regret that a bit, as the line has moved towards the Angels here and despite the modeling issues, I’m comfortable going u4.5 (-122) (F5) with two average offenses and decent defenses.
Guardians @ Red Sox
Ben Lively has a 10.5 K-BB% in a little over 200 major league innings and projects for an ERA closer to five than four by all major projection systems. In 88.2 inning last year, LHBs had a .387 wOBA and .367 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 84 (59 Home, 65 L7days)
DEF: 1
B30: 3.18
Tanner Houck has struck out one-quarter of the 76 batters he’s faced, while walking just two. That’s fantastic and with just a single home run allowed, he has a SIERA, xFIP and FIP all below three. Pitch modeling likes both of his main pitches (slider 59 PB grade, sinker 56, overall 2.84 Bot ERA, 113 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+). However, the overall contact profile is not as impressive (4.45 xERA) and LHBs have pummeled him since last year (.360 wOBA, .356 xwOBA). The Cleveland lineup generally lines up at least six LHBs against RHP.
Opp wRC+: 110 (112 Road, 113 L7Days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.55
There’s no doubting that Tanner Houck is the superior pitcher in this matchup. However, both pitchers have massive platoon issues and will be facing predominantly left-handed lineups, while Cleveland has significant edges in every other aspect (offense, defense, bullpen). I’m happy to play them as dogs here and the line is dropping already (went from +124 to +120 before I could complete).
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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