Going to have to take some shortcuts a few times this week in order to get any content published while dealing with some family issues (Tuesday may be a miss). I believe real jobs call them personal days. I’ve created a new legend at the bottom of the page, explaining some of the shorthand statistics.
Lastly, I may shorten the analysis on a few games (it seems every day except Thursday this week includes a full 15 games), emphasizing matchups where there’s something interesting or important to say. I also won’t have time to update for DFS notes on Monday.
All stats are through Saturday.
If you find the information on this site helpful, donations are welcome (mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal), so that I can continue doing this and make the site more pleasant to look at.
Guardians @ Red Sox
Xzavion Curry has made two starts at AAA (12.9 K-BB% in 7 IP). Most major projection systems have him around five this year. He had a 9.2 K-BB% over 95 innings (36 in a starting roll) last year.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 0
B30: 3.21
Kutter Crawford has a 15.6 K-BB% (lot of strikeouts, too many walks) through three starts with exactly half his contact on the ground and just one Barrel (29.7 Hard%). Throwing both his four-seam and sweeper about one-third of the time each, he just has to get rid of his cutter that stunk last year and is no good this year either (-1.1 RV/100 Statcast, 42 PitchingBot grade).
Opp wRC+: 111
DEF: -4
B30: 3.41
Twins @ Orioles
Louie Varland misses bats (24.7 K%, 18.0 K-BB% since last year), but has also allowed 17 HRs over 12 starts. His 5.14 ERA matches contact inclusive estimators, but is more than a run above contact neutral ones.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.09
Cole Irvin’s 4.84 ERA since last season is more or less in line with estimators.
Opp wRC+: 80
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.20
Rangers @ Tigers
Michael Lorenzen’s 4.18 ERA (10.3 K-BB%) was below estimators last year and no major projection system projects him below four and a half this year.
Opp wRC+: 87
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.31
The Pirates tagged Reese Olson for six runs in 4.1 innings after he’d shut the Mets out through 5.2 in his first start. However, he’s struck out just one more (six) than he’s walked (five). He’s allowed four Barrels (11.4%), despite 57.1% of his contact on the ground. Olson has a PitchingBot ERA of 5.01 and subpar Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks. That said, he still has a respectable 15.2 K-BB% and 4.12 ERA fitting a 4.18 SIERA since last year, so perhaps he can find it again. It’s only two starts.
Opp wRC+: 126 (6.9 K-BB%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.88
Rockies @ Phillies
Cal Quantrill has a 13.3 K% since last year and not a single estimator below four and a half. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against him over this span.
Opp wRC+: 70 (25.7 K%)
DEF: -3
B30: 5.09
Aaron Nola’s velocity has dropped in each start since his first. You could blame the dreary, wet weather in St Louis last time out, but the only good start he’s had was in Washington, where he walked four and maxed out at a season high four strikeouts. That he’s allowed four HRs on just three Barrels (5.9%) is a small source for optimism, but he’s sitting on a 7 SwStr% through three starts and where he generally runs estimators below his ERA, this season, it’s the opposite. All estimators are above his 4.50 ERA, except a matching 4.50 PitchingBot ERA. The Curveball (28.4%) is the only Nola offering that PB even grades average. Even Stuff+ and Pitching+ only see his pitches as average. He can’t even blame a defense that’s been above average so far.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 2
B30: 3.34
No, the Rockies are not 28 points better than the Phillies against RHP, but the Phillies have been bad. Aaron Nola has been bad. And I’m a bit concerned. Concerned enough to like the Rockies at anything above two to one. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Giants @ Marlins
Kyle Harrison nearly doubled his strikeout total to 17 on the year after whiffing eight of 22 Nationals. Maybe whiff is the wrong word because he did this with just an 8.6 SwStr%, which, coincidentally, is also his season mark. He now sits at 9.1% for his career, despite a 24.2 K%. Stuff+ grades Harrison’s arsenal an ugly 89. However, that arsenal moves up to a 98 Pitching+ with all things considered and a four-seam fastball he throws 67.2% of the time is his one strongly graded pitch (56 PitchingBot). The Marlins have been one of the worst fastball hitting teams in the majors (-1.25 wFB/C).
Opp wRC+: 35 (55 wRC+ L7 days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.19
If Harrison has his issues, A.J. Puk has been a disaster with a -10.3 K-BB% through three starts. Does it even matter he’s allowed just a single Barrel? He still has a 5.64 xERA. He has a better Stuff+ (94) than Harrison, but also a 94 Pitching+. PitchingBot grades the pitch he uses the most (39% four-seam fastball) as his worst (41).
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.64
Take the offenses against LHP with more than a grain of salt at this point in the season, but we can still suggest the Giants are superior in that aspect and appear to be superior in every aspect, but are only small favorites (-120 game, -104 F5). I prefer the better price. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Update: The Marlins have scratched Puk in favor of a RHP who walks everyone. Edward Cabrera has walked eight of 54 batters in his rehab outings and 14% over 197.2 career innings. I may not have the time to re-run the numbers with him in place. The Giants have a 22 point drop off in wRC+ against RHP (90).
Angels @ Rays
It’s stunning to me that a guy who’s best pitch (and maybe only good pitch) is a changeup would such a 70 point platoon split (RHBs .334 wOBA, .343 xwOBA since last year) and I’m not even sure the Rays would have any LHBs to run out there if they wanted to. Sandoval’s only solid start has been in Miami so far, while he’s running an 11.4 BB% with estimators above his 4.30 ERA since last year.
Opp wRC+: 96 (2.2 HR/FB)
DEF: 3
B30: 4.59
Zack Eflin has been inconsistent through three starts, starting with one bad inning really, then pitching a gem his second time out before a mess in his third start. He’s struck out exactly five in all three, walking a total of two (17.6 K-BB%) with six Barrels (10.7%). The good news is that PitcihngBot still gives grades above 60 to his cutter and sinker, which make up more than 50% of his arsenal and a 2.12 Bot ERA overall. While Eflin has a below average Stuff+ mark (93), the use of that arsenal has been exceptional (110 Pitching+).
Opp wrC+: 94
DEF: 2
B30: 5.47 (Opened season as best projected bullpen via Fangraphs)
Yankees @ Blue Jays
You can probably still throw your four-seamer 60% of the time if it’s 97 mph with a 31.8 Whiff%. That’s what Luis Gill has done so far and Stuff+ loves it (122). Where he throws those fastballs is a different issue though (100 Pitching+, 4.34 PitchingBot ERA, four-seam 51 grade). In short, without a Barrel and just three hard hit balls, the problem is that he’s walked seven of 38 (41.3 Zone%, 50 F-Strike%) to go with the 14 strikeouts.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.61
The only team Chris Bassitt has pitched well against so far is the Mariners and he still walked four to go along with his eight Ks. The problem appears to be his cutter, his second most thrown pitch (17.6%, 35 PitchingBot grade, -3 RV/100 Statcast). LHBs have a .374 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against Bassitt since last year. His 3.71 ERA over that span is a half run below all estimators.
Opp wRC+: 126 (6.7 K-BB%)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.99
Pirates @ Mets
Martin Perez has stranded 88% of runners. He does have estimators below four with a 55.2 GB% and nearly league average 12.8 K-BB%, but doesn’t have a pitch he’s thrown more than 15% of the time graded above 50 and how about a 72 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 140
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.31
Adrian Houser is here too (4.23 ERA, 4.57 SIERA since last year).
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -6
B30: 3.50
Royals @ White Sox
Seth Lugo has allowed just three runs and as many Barrels through three starts, but with an 11.8 K% and 7.6 SwStr%. His velocity Is down a mile and a half per hour with the four-seamer going from a 21.5 Whiff% to 9.7%. Contact neutral estimators, as well as PitchingBot agree on with something around four and a half. The curveball (54 PitchingBot grade, .294 wOBA, .215 xwOBA, 1 RV/100) is still working though and Stuff+ sees the stuff as average.
Opp wRC+: 79
DEF: 2
B30: 4.71
Projections for Nick Nastrini are around five. He has struck out 13 of 37 AAA batters, but with an insane 45% line drive rate. Fangraphs gives him a 45+ Future Value grade with the potential for three 60 grade pitches, but command issues.
Opp wRC+: 119 wRC+ (6.0 K-BB% L7 days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.83
Padres @ Brewers
After easing concerns in a great start against the Cardinals (1 R – 1 BB – 7 K – 22 BF), Joe Musgrove ignited fires by allowing at least four runs for the third time in four starts against the Cubs. He’s sitting on a 19.8 K%, but with a 13.6 SwStr% that’s risen with each start. He also had some rough luck in his last start, sitting on the bench after loading the bases to watch a grand slam. The .418 BABIP won’t last and he’s only allowed four Barrels (7%) with a 35.1% hard hit rate. He does have a disgusting 8.32 xERA, but the only pitch graded below average (PitchingBot) is a four-seamer he throws less than 20% of the time and he still has the stuff (114 Stuff+), it’s just his command of it (99 Pitching+) and even that says he’s no worse than average. He’s likely to turn it around, but maybe not in this surprisingly difficult matchup.
Opp wRC+: 135 (150 wRC+ L7 days)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.42
As good as his 1.80 ERA? No, but Joe Ross turned it around in his second start in Cincinnati, striking out seven with just one walk. He’s actually throwing his sinker half a mph harder than his last MLB stint in 2021, and, well, you know you’re either getting that or a slider 90% of the time. It’s worked out so far though (57.1 GB%, 2.77 xERA). There’s some disagreement between his contact neutral estimators and contact inclusive ones and while you’d rather trust the neutral ones through just two starts, only his SIERA (4.58) reaches above four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 107 (19.6 K%)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.61
Willing to concede that Musgrove is still a better pitcher than Ross, the latter has shown competence after a long absence so far. And while the Milwaukee offense won’t sustain a 135 wRC+ against RHP, they may at least be as good as San Diego, while also having a comparable defense and much better bullpen (actual results and projections). I don’t see why the Brewers (+110) are dogs at home here. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Braves @ Astros
Update: Stats updated through Sunday with the rest of tonight's writeups.
We have a combined three major league starts by the pitchers in this game combined. The Braves are getting desperate. Darius Vines had an 8.3 K-BB% across 20.1 major league innings last year. Having spent parts of the last three seasons at AAA (never more than 35 innings), the soon to be 26 year-old has had strikeout rates of 20.3%, 20.1% and a high of 23.9% over 12 innings this year. Projection systems fit him around four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 129 (16.6 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.05
Spencer Arrighetti doesn’t throw exceptionally hard (94.8 mph avg in debut) and doesn’t throw strikes (9.1% lowest walk rate above low A ball). Fangraphs gives him a 40+ Future Value grade with a future projection of a swingman type. Aside from the fastball (55), the slider is his only other above average graded pitch (60) by Fangraphs and PitchingBot slapped a 42 offering on that pitch in his first start.
Opp wRC+: 146
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.60
Cubs @ Diamondbacks
After getting walloped by Texas for six runs in less than two innings in his first appearance, Ben Brown has struck out 10 of his last 31 batters faced (25.8 K-BB%). However, he’s already allowed five Barrels (17.9%) with a 64.3% hard hit rate, producing a 6.83 xERA. Fangraphs (45+ Future Value grade) thinks he can be close to average, slapping above average grades on his fastball, slider and curveball, but below average on his command. He also has a 116 Stuff+ mark, but just 101 Pitching+ to confirm that analysis. PitchingBot has also seen his most utilized pitchers (four-seam, curve a combined 98.3%) as average to above already.
Opp wRC+: 94 (but 7.7 K-BB%)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.03
Merrill Kelly pitched solidly in two home starts against the Rockies and Yankees and then at Coors last time out (16.7 K-BB%). He has just a 25 Hard%, but five of the 13 have been Barrels (9.6%). This was not an issue last season (7.8% Barrels/BBE) when he posted the highest K-BB (16.3%) of his career outside 2020. Kelly has turned himself into a solid pitcher with a 3.81 xFIP and 3.82 xFIP since last year.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.58
Cardinals @ Athletics
It may have been delayed, but Sonny Gray was exactly what the Cardinals hoped in his first outing, striking out five of 18 Phillies without a barrel, walk or run allowed over five innings. Now down to a 5.0 HR/FB since last season that may not be sustainable, Gray has an exceptional FIP 2.78 FIP over this span with other estimators (including his xERA) in the mid to upper threes. Batters from neither side of the plate exceed a .300 wOBA or xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 85
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.09
Through three starts, Ross Stripling has a 5.50 ERA, but estimators ranging from a 3.25 FIP to a 4.89 DRA with most others somewhere about a half run removed from either of those points in the middle. He has just an 11.4 K-BB%, but has allowed just a single barrel with a 25% hard hit rate. A .424 BABIP and 64.2 LOB% have been culprits for his failings so far, but a 33.9% line drive rate is going to run a higher BABIP than normal. PitchingBot loves the changeup though (63 grade), a pitch the Cardinals have struggled to hit (-0.8 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.79
Reds @ Mariners
Frankie Montas has been…fine after missing all of 2023. He’s not missing a ton of bats (19.6 K%), but still has a league average 13.2 K-BB% and has allowed just two Barrels (3.9%) so far. Estimators range from a 2.75 xERA that’s likely unsustainable to a 4.56 DRA. Both pitches he’s thrown more than 20% of the time (four-seam, splitter) grade above 55 on PitchingBot, which gives him a 3.74 Bot ERA overall and both Stuff+ (105) and Pitching+ (104) like what he’s throwing. It’s only three starts and he may need to get his fastball up a bit more, but both pitches have an xwOBA in the .250 range with the splitter a 38.7 Whiff%.
Opp wRC+: 69 (31.5 K%)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.44
After a dominating first start, George Kirby has struck out just five of his last 43 batters faced (6.3 SwStr%) and while the Blue Jays and Guardians don’t swing and miss much, he’s also allowed 13 runs over those 7.2 innings. A .472 BABIP and 34.1 LOB% are ridiculous and the contact profile is fine in these starts, but for a guy who still isn’t walking anybody, his command has been off. If people know you’re going to be in the and around the zone and you start throwing your fastball down the middle too often (similar for the cutter)…
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -2
B30: 4.21
I expect Kirby to get straightened out, but Montas has been competent and the Mariners just can’t hit. They have a lineup full of guys who have hit in the past, but may be a bit volatile. I don’t want any part of a bullpen battle with Cincinnati, but think they have some value over the F5 (+132). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Nationals @ Dodgers
Parker Mitchell doesn’t have a single pitch with a Future Value grade above 55, according to Fangraphs with an overall 35+ FV grade. He has run a K-BB over 20% in AAA the last two seasons, but that’s only 14.1 innings worth of work with a 16.1 K-BB% over 113.2 AA innings before that. Parker appears to be a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. Projection systems have him just below five.
Opp wRC+: 106 wRC+
DEF: -2.5
B30: 3.61
The 24.4 K-BB% Tyler Glasnow has produced in four starts for the Dodgers is actually his lowest mark since pitching for the Pirates in 2018. Just one-third of the contact opponents have made against him has been above a 95 mph EV. All estimators are below three with the exception of a 3.63 DRA that needs to further explain itself. PitchingBot has graded a fastball he’s thrown 54% of the time a 67 on a scale that only goes up to 80 (curve & slider 54 each), while Glasnow’s 120 Stuff+ mark is also one of the top marks in baseball.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -3
B30: 4.20
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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