We get the full 15 on Friday and all at night. Yamamoto gets his fourth start, Alexander his second, but all other 28 pitchers are on their third (unless something changes). A little bit of house cleaning before we start. I may have to miss a day or two going into next week (maybe Monday and/or Tuesday). There's also an explanation on team defense (DEF - team Runs Prevented and player Defensive Run Value) and bullpen (B30 - bullpen estimators L30) numbers in Wednesday's post.
If you find the information on this site helpful, donations are welcome (mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal), so that I can continue doing this and make the site more pleasant to look at.
Twins @ Tigers
Following a dominant outing in Kansas City on Opening Day, Pablo Lopez followed up with an uncomfortable one against Cleveland, despite all three of his Barrels coming in KC. The five fewer strikeouts turned into more BABIP woes though. Since last season, Lopez has a 22.8 K-BB% and 3.61 ERA that is above all estimators in the lower threes. The Tigers have a 95 wRC+ against RHP.
DEF: 1
B30: 3.65
Tarik Skubal has struck out 15 of 46 batters with an 18.3 SwStr%. He’s allowed two Home Runs, but just one Barrel and a 27.6 Hard%. He has a 28.4 K-BB%, 2.82 ERA and 2.74 SIERA since last season. The Twins have a 104 wRC+ against LHP.
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.76
Both of these pitchers feature strongly graded four-seam fastballs by PitchingBot and both of these offenses have a negative run value against fastballs this year. Not that this is projectable, but both offenses have a sub-85 wRC+ over the last week. Both defenses have been better than average and both bullpens project and have performed near the top of the league. This should be a pitcher’s duel (u7 -115 – repeating from Thursday w/ no line move.). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Pirates @ Phillies
After six runs in Miami, Bailey Falter one-hit the Orioles through six innings with just one strikeout (BABIP!). He has an 8.3 SwStr% and -2.4 K-BB% through two starts, but Revenge Game! Nah, he has just a 16.2 K% since last season with estimators in the upper fours. The Phillies have a 104 wRC+ against LHP, but with a 25.6 K%.
DEF: -6
B30: 2.93
After striking out eight Reds with a single walk in his first start, Cristopher Sanchez walked three Nats with a single K in his second. It was a completely different effort from every angle. One thing is for sure, Sanchez is going to throw that sinker around 40% of the time and it’s up 1.8 mph on average from last year (though more in his first game than his second), but it’s also getting tattooed (.512 wOBA, .440 xwOBA). The numbers above those pitches are an impressive 19.4 K-BB%, 3.56 ERA and 3.40 SIERA since last season. Sanchez also has a massive 100+ point split with RHBs above a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him and LHBs below .200. The Pirates are torching LHP (139 wRC+), but we’ll see where they stand after facing one Thursday.
DEF: -2
B30: 3.59
Giants @ Rays
Keaton Winn pitched better against the Dodgers (1 BB, 6 K) than Padres (3 BB, 1 K). He’s dropped his splitter usage (50% to 40%) and upped the slider (3.5% to 15.4%), but the splitter had a 34.4 Whiff% with a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .270 last year, so why change? Over 53.1 innings between this year and last, Winn has a competent 14.0 K-BB% with estimators about a run below his 4.89 ERA (61.8 LOB%), but he has allowed 10.3% Barrels/BBE, despite a 58% ground ball rate. The Rays have a 111 wRC+ against RHIP.
DEF: 1
B30: 4.42
Through two starts, Tyler Alexander (not confirmed as of this writing) has just an 8.5 SwStr% and 17.6 GB% with five Barrels allowed. He’s allowed 11.6% Barrels/BBE since last season with most of his work coming out of the bullpen. He only walked five batters in 44 innings last year, but is a single walk away from that total already. The Giants have a 117 wRC+ and 14.4 K% against southpaws.
DEF: 2
B30: 5.69 (They were projected to be the best MLB bullpen.)
Update: It's no longer Tyler Alexander, but Jacob Waguespack.
Brewers @ Orioles
Freddy Peralta has struck out 15 of 43 batters with just two walks, but three Barrels. With a 31.1 K% since last season, all estimators are below his 3.81 ERA over that span. His fastball is getting 18% better vertical movement than the average fastball and carries a 64 PitchingBot grade, while the slider has a 44% whiff rate through two starts. The Orioles (121 wRC+, 18.1 K% v RHP) have been one of the worst offenses against fastballs, while LHBs have a 10 point lower wOBA and xwOBA against Peralta since last season. Both could potentially help him here.
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.79
Tyler Wells halved his 17.1 SwStr% against the Angels in his second start in Pittsburgh (8%), but he did allow two Barrels in each. They were a problem for him last year two (11.7%), but a solid 17.7 K-BB% was able to help mitigate the damage. There’s also this little where Baltimore kills right-handed power now, but Wells has had a significant reverse split since last year (RHB .269 wOBA, .282 xwOBA). The Brewers have a 126 wRC+ and 15.6 HR/FB against RHP.
DEF: 1.5
B30: 2.56
DFS Notes: There are a few things to note about this 12 game slate in general. We’ve already had one PPD (the only really troublesome game), but many games have winds strongly blowing out (this is one) that might help offset some cooler temperatures. There’s also five protected environments (domes) on the slate. Despite the protected environment and wind blowing out, only one team really exceeds five implied runs on this slate (Reds 5.12). We have some interesting pitchers here too, if not true Aces.
Cool with winds blowing out. This is a park that now kills RH power with the wind blowing out to RF. I’m lukewarm on the pitching here. Wells due to inconsistent performance against an offense that has over-achieved so far, Peralta due to price against a good offense. Peralta may still be a top five overall pitcher tonight though. Both of these offenses sit smack in the middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs. I’m also not seeing any bats that NEED to be in your lineup here. For DFS purposes, this game is kinda…meh.
Rockies @ Blue Jays
As generally happens with Colorado pitchers, Ryan Feltner got bombed on the road (Arizona), but then was great at home (Rays). Wait, what? Yup, Feltner struck out 10 of 22 Rays (19.6 SwStr%) with eight of 10 batted balls on the ground. Is this something we should have seen coming? Not from last year’s 5.0 K-BB% and 43.6 GB% (43.1 IP). Feltner threw his slider 45.7% of the time in that start with a 41.2 Whiff% (to be fair his four-seamer had a 44.4 Whiff%). In his first major league start, he threw that slider 41% of the time then never 40% again in a single game and only 31.3% for the season. It only had a 16.7 Whiff% last year. It does look to have a bit more horizontal movement, but otherwise appears the same pitch, so we’ll see where this goes. An 87 wRC+, but 10.9 K-BB% against RHP for Toronto.
DEF: -5
B30: 5.25
Kevin Gausman’s first start was limited 69 pitches in his first start because he missed time this spring with an injury. His second was limited to 51 pitches because he got bombed. Gausman has allowed five Barrels and a 50% hard hit rate on his 18 batted balls so far. Here’s the other problem: his velocity was down three mph in that start. Hopefully, it was just the weather in New York. The Rockies have an 81 wRC+ and 19.0 K-BB% against RHP. Even if there is a problem with Gausman, we may not realize it in this contest.
DEF: -1
B30: 5.26
DFS Notes: I am willing to take a shot with Ryan Feltner as a very cheap SP2 here to pay up for some bats. (I can get Ohtani, Alvarez and several other solid bats with him.) It’s a really tough matchup though, because the Blue Jays don’t strike out. Only two in the projected lineup above 21% against RHP since last year and one of them (Varsho) projects to bat ninth. So, I wouldn’t blame you if you thought this was nonsense and stacked birds (4.89). On the other hand, Kevin Gausman is $10K on either site against the Rockies Road. I’d consider going underweight on him here until we can determine he’s healthy. I’d assume more players are going to lean towards a matchup against the Rockies at home than be concerned about what happened in his last start. And that may even be the right move, but there are other pitching opportunities on this slate.
Angels @ Red Sox
Whatever IT is, Reid Detmers may have found. He’s struck out 19 of 42 batters (18.7 SwStr%) with just five hard hit batted balls. He’s doing this by throwing his four-seamer even more (53.3%) and it has a 45.8 Whiff%. It’s not being thrown any hard and only with a bit more spin, but he’s placing nearly perfectly at the top of the zone with nearly three inches less drop than last year. The Red Sox have a 96 wRC+ and 30.6 K% against LHP.
DEF: 2
B30: 4.78
Tanner Houck has been nearly as impressive, striking out 17 of 45 with two walks and a 64 GB%. He hasn’t allowed a Barrel or run yet, though 48% of his contact has been above a 95 mph EV. He was sinker/slider two-thirds of the time last year and has upped that to over three-quarters in his first two starts this year. The spin on the slider has dropped 100 RPM, yet he’s getting a higher 45.7 Whiff% with it. It may have been facing the Angels and A’s on the west coast. Houck still has a 4.50 ERA with estimators around four since last season. The Angels have a 92 wRC+, but very few LHBs, which may favor Houck’s large split tremendously (RHBs .271 wOBA, .263 xwOBA), as it did in their initial meeting this year.
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.61
DFS Notes: Tough park. Wind blowing towards the monster at near 20 mph. Cool temperatures. I don’t care. Reid Detmers is my SP1 tonight in tournament play. He’s only $8.3K on DraftKings and this makeshift bottom half of the Boston lineup against LHP has a TON of Ks in it. Tanner Houck’s major platoon issues make him playable against a predominantly RH lineup, but also makes almost any Angels’ bat in the upper half of the lineup playable too.
Update: Jumping on Detmers o6.5 Ks (+130). Too many Ks in likely Boston lineup against a pitcher with a 27.3 K% since last year.
Royals @ Mets
Michael Wacha has done a nice job rebuilding his career, even if his 3.22 ERA was well below estimators for the second year in a row. They averaged about a run higher with only a 3.89 FIP below four. Still, league average is fine. Wacha was mostly fine in his first start in Baltimore before dominating the White Sox. He’s sitting on a 26.2 K-BB% through two starts (15.4% since last year). PitchingBot always likes the changeup (63 grade) and it’s getting an insane 45.8 Whiff% this year. The Mets had just a 74 wRC+ against RHP before exploding against Atlanta on Thursday.
DEF: 3
B30: 4.47
Luis Severino looked really good in Cincinnati, striking out seven of 21 with a 75 GB%. Adding a sweeper gives him six different pitches thrown at least nine times this year, while the four-seamer (47.6%) is getting a 27.6 Whiff%, up 50% from last year. Nothing about the pitch looks really different though. His 3.60 ERA nearly matches a 3.77 this year, but he’s still working with estimators above four and a half since last season. The Royals already had a 113 wRC+ against RHP before pummeling the Astros on Thursday.
DEF: -4
B30: 3.53
DFS Notes: I’m unsure about this game. Wind blowing out in a tough park with cool temperatures. Wacha is not a guy I’m coveting at $8.5K or more. The Mets offense is starting to heat up (up now to 86 wRC+ v RHP after Thursday). I’m not incredibly interested in bats here either, even with a 4.56 implied run line. Nimmo (140 wRC+, .230 ISO v RHP since LY) is generally always underpriced for some reason though. While Severino looked better last time out, I’m not convinced and he may be facing a quality lineup here. I could see an argument for exposure to either side in GPPs because both sides will probably carry low ownership (Royals 3.94), but I have nobody from this game in my initial single entry build.
Braves @ Marlins
Max Fried has gotten off to poor starts before, but yikes! Let’s start with the positive. He struck out five Diamondbacks with just one walk and a 68.4 GB% in his last start. The velocity is fine. The stuff looks similar to last year. It just looks like he’s hung a few too many pitches. Let’s consider he still has an 18.7 K-BB% since last year and has been one of the best contact managers in the game for several seasons. If he struggles here though (Marlins 32 wRC+ v LHP), we may have to worry.
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.21
Trevor Rogers has now made six starts over the last two seasons and here are his average fastball velocities from last season (94.2, 93.2, 93, 92.2) and this year (93.2, 92). Yeah, I noticed the trend too. He’s gotten half his contact on the ground this year with an 11.8 SwStr% and no Barrels, but with just a 4.1 K-BB%. He has a 4.50 ERA, 4.44 SIERA and 4.54 xFIP over the six start span.
DEF: -7
B30: 4.56
DFS Notes: Max Fried is generally more of a floor than a ceiling guy and for nearly $9K, when that floor collapses, all bets are off. However, for this reason and because he doesn’t show any signs of being injured (that we can see), I’m very interested in Fried in this park, against this offense if nobody else is. The Braves have a 4.94 team run total and the top half of their lineup are some of the top bats on the board. RHBs have a .342 wOBA and xwOBA against Rogers since last year. I’m not finding any Braves in my initial lineup, but will have many if I play more.
Yankees @ Guardians
Clark Schmidt’s estimators are all below his 4.64 ERA since last year, but none below four. Yet, PitchingBot absolutely loved all of his pitches. If you look at their grades, you’d think you looking at a Cy Young contender. A 13.3 SwStr% against the Astros in his first start and then 11% against a Toronto team that may be even tougher to strike out. Maybe he’ll show us something more than a 21.5 K% (14.9 K-BB%) this year. Oh, look…another team that doesn’t strike out (Guardians 114 wRC+, 18.8 K% v RHP). Schmidt also has a massive platoon split that could hurt him here (LHBs .370 wOBA, .349 xwOBA since LY).
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.56
Carlos Carrasco has struck out 9 of 34 batters with an 11.5 SwStr% and no Barrels. He’s also walked four and is down 2.6 mph to 90.1 mph on his fastball. Having faced two struggling teams (OAK, MIN), I don’t think I’m buying into the 2.49 xERA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Carrasco since last season. The Yankees have a 116 wRC+ and 10 K-BB% against RHP.
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.36
DFS Notes: PPD
Reds @ White Sox
Andrew Abbott is inconsistent, but fine. Over 119.2 innings since being called up, he’s posted a 25.4 K% and 3.84 ERA that’s about a half run below contact neutral estimators, but more in line with his xERA. The real story here is the Chicago offense without Jimenez, Robert and Moncada. Their 68 wRC+ and 31 K% against LHP may be underselling it. This is really rough. Although, Abbott does have a 100 point split (RHBs .346 wOBA, .325 xwOBA), so as long as Chicago can find a bunch of guys who bat from the right side…
DEF: 1
B30: 4.65
Chris Flexen has walked and struck out five each (6.2 SwStr%). His velocity is down almost a mph on a pitch he threw 40% of the time last year with a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against it. It has a .455 xwOBA against already this year and is graded as a 40 pitch by PitchingBot. The Reds (94 wRC+ v RHP) haven’t done much, but they are the fourth best offense against fastballs (wFB/C).
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.77
DFS Notes: The Reds (5.12) are the top offense on the board, which is not often something you’ll say about them on the road (outside of Coors). All the stackage against Flexen (RHBs > .400 wOBA and xwOBA since LY, LHBs > .330). Everyone in the projected Cincinnati lineup outside Tyler Stephenson (75) exceeds a 100 wRC+ and .165 ISO against RHP since last season. India (109 wRC+, .167 ISO v RHP since LY) and Benson (138, .252) make my initial lineup at very affordable prices. Abbott is a bit more expensive than I might have expected (> $8K), but the remains of this lineup are truly atrocious. The one exception, who made my initial lineup, is Robbie Grossman (156, .219) as a very cheap leadoff bat and perhaps the top value on the board.
Rangers @ Astros
Read some about Dane Dunning developing a forkball in March. He’s thrown it once in his two starts. He better start throwing it a bit more or Cody Bradford gonna have his rotation spot soon. Dunning does have a 13.7 SwStr%, but a 13.2 BB% and K-BB% with just a 40 GB%, five Barrels and 53.3% hard hit rate. The sinker is down over a mph (89.8) and has a .406 xwOBA against through two starts. In fact, PitchingBot doesn’t really like any of his pitches. The Astros have a 117 wRC+ against RHP.
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.06
J.P. France hasn’t allowed a Barrel with just eight hard hit balls (20.5%), but his issue has been lack of strikeouts (17.4 K% since last year). His contact profile was about average last year, which made him a below average pitcher, but his ground ball rate was average too (25.6% this year). While his actual results show a small reverse split, Statcast shows more than a 50 point difference in xwOBA. The Rangers will generally throw six LHBs into a lineup against RHBs.
DEF: 2
B30: 4.74
DFS Notes: In a protected environment, I’m very interested in bats (Rangers 4.48, Astros 5.02) and not at all in arms here. Semien, Seager, Garcia and Carter all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .200 ISO against RHP since last year (Sesager & Carter excessively so). Carter is still fairly cheap. The first five in the Houston standard lineup against RHP (and LHP) all exceed a 125 wRC+ and .175 ISO against RHP since last season. Alvarez (178, .318) is my top bat on the board. Yainer Diaz (154, .282) is my top catcher and is still very affordable (especially on FD $2.8K).
Nationals @ Athletics
PitchingBot likes Jake Irvin’s sinker and curveball (both 57 grade). The same sinker that had a .412 wOBA and xwOBA against last year and is down more than a mph without any movement changes. It doesn’t even get a ton of ground balls. Irvin has an 18 K% and 7 SwStr% in 132 big league innings with 9.7% Barrels/BBE allowed. His 4.70 xERA matches his actual ERA. The A’s have an 88 wRC+ and 27.5 K% against RHP.
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.95
Paul Blackburn has not allowed a run through 13 innings, but had a 2.2 mph velocity drop off from his first to second start, in which he still generated a 15.3 SwStr% and 51.3 GB%. Blackburn has gotten his strikeout rate since last year up to 21.7%, which is nearly league average for a starting pitcher. His 3.93 ERA also matches his actual ERA over that span with contact neutral estimators about half a run higher (8.9 HR/FB, 5.7% Barrels/BBE). The Nationals have a 111 wRC+ and 9.9 K-BB% against RHP so far.
DEF: -5
B30: 4.05
DFS Notes: The A’s are the only team to reach four implied runs (4.24) in this game. Despite the pitcher friendly park, I’m uninterested in either of these starters for reasons given above. The Nationals simply don’t strike out enough to make Blackburn viable here. Abraham Toro (136 wRC+, .167 ISO v RHP since LY) is a top value play, within $200 of $2.5K on either site, if in the leadoff spot again. I lack any interest in anything on the other side of this matchup.
Cubs @ Mariners
Over nine major league starts (43.1 IP), Jordan Wicks has struck out 19.6% (11.6 K-BB%). However, it might be unfair to lump it all together because he’s struck out 13 of 43 this year with a 15.1 SwStr%. He’s done this throwing a four-seamer a half mph harder with less drop more often (48.1%) with the whiff rate jumping up to 36.7%. He’s thrown no other pitch 20% of the time. Even more impressive, he’s done this against the Rangers and Dodgers. The Mariners have been in their better split against LHP (100 wRC+, 22.8 K%).
DEF: -4
B30: 4.24
Bryce Miller has cut down his four-seam usage (58.5% to 36.7%) and incorporated a split-finger (23.7%) to play off of it, generating a 40+ Whiff% on both pitches (27.1% on the four-seam last year). The new pitch is an important barrier to LH success against him (.387 wOBA last year, .194 this year). He’s struck out 13 of 47 (16 SwStr%) with all four Barrels coming in his first start. The Cubs have a 111 wRC+ and 7.6 K-BB% against RHP.
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.20
DFS Notes: One of the most pitcher friendly environments in baseball, roof open or closed. I have some interest in Wicks as an affordable SP2, but would have more if he were right-handed (which I actually thought he was for a minute). If we buy into the change in Bryce Miller…well, he’s still not cheap in a tough spot. Do we still trust his career numbers against LHBs? Dylan Moore is the only player in the projected Seattle lineup who exceeds a .180 ISO against LHP since last year. I’m not sure if I’ll touch anyone from this game, but if I do, it’s more likely to be a pitcher.
Cardinals @ Diamondbacks
With an 11.4 SwStr%, Steven Matz has struck out just six of 41 batters through two starts with three walks and a single Barrel allowed. An interesting thing he’s doing this year is incorporating the high sinker. He’s still throwing it over half the time and a half mph harder, but with just an 11.6 Whiff% so far. Since last season, estimators are about a half run above his 3.67 ERA. The Diamondbacks have shot out of the gate against LHP (123 wRC+, 14.7 K%) with a lineup that was expected to improve against southpaws.
DEF: 2
B30: 3.19
Brandon Pfaadt got pounded for five runs in Atlanta. He still struck out seven (23 SwStr%) with one walk. It’s the Braves. Move on. He didn’t pitch well last season, but broke out in the playoffs (24.1 K-BB%). However, the underlying numbers were still there. He has a 17.1 K-BB% over 106.2 major league regular season innings now with an xERA in the low fours, even with 11.7% Barrels/BBE. He’s cut down his four-seamer usage in two games, in favor of a few more sweepers and sinkers. PitchingBot really likes the sweeper (66 grade), while the Cardinals (81 wRC+, 18.8 K-BB% v RHP) have struggled against fastballs and sliders.
DEF: 5
B30: 3.58
If you don't want to wait to find out why I played Arizona (-118) in this game, follow RockyJade on Action Network.
DFS Notes: With the roof expected to be open, this could be the most hitter friendly environment on the slate (though it generally doesn’t improve home run prowess much), depending on the weather effects in places like Boston and Chicago tonight. Both teams exceed four and a half implied runs (Arizona 4.94, St Louis 4.56), but I still have some interest in Pfaadt here. He costs less than $8K on DK and the St Louis offense has been poor. That said, the first seven in the projected St Louis order all exceed a 110 wRC+ and .160 ISO against RHP since last season. I just think Pfaadt is a better pitcher than last season’s numbers and don’t hold his last start against the Braves against him. He is my SP2 in the single entry lineup. I like Christian Walker (142 wRC+, .284 ISO v LHP since last year) as the top alternative to the actual First Baseman I initially rostered tonight. Every RHB in the projected lineup has a 125+ wRC+ against southpaws since last season. Blaze Alexander (180, .286) is my value SS even if he won’t keep up this pace.
Padres @ Dodgers
Perhaps the best thing to do is wipe out both pitchers’ performances in the Korean series because they’ve each performed much better since then. For Michael King, it wasn’t immediate, walking seven Giants, but he walked just one in the return bout without a Barrel allowed. He hasn’t been able to repeat his success in a starting role from last year, as his velocity has dropped and location has been to hittable. The changeup (20..6%) is the only pitch drawing a whiff rate above 23%, while three or his four pitches did so last year. I’m a bit concerned about a pitcher I thought might even have some dark horse Cy Young potential. The Dodgers have smashed RHP (127 wRC+, 11.3 BB%, 15.2 HR/FB), but with a 27.9 K%.
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.51
Yoshinobu Yamamoto appears to be getting more comfortable with the major league baseball with every start. His K%, GB% and SwStr% have increased with each start, though he does still have a 53.6 Hard%. However, with a 25.5 K-BB% now, he has just a 3.22 xERA. Only his 3.41 DRA is higher. The curveball (29.3%) has become the knockout pitch (.098 wOBA, .120 xwOBA, 47.6 Whiff%, 60 PitchingBot grade). The Padres have a 110 wRC+ and 18.9 K% against RHP.
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.17
DFS Notes: This is a wind blowing out game, though not as strongly as others. The Dodgers have a 4.96 team run total. Though I consider Ohtani (197 wRC+, .394 ISO v RHP since last season) and Betts (166 wRC+, .252) top bats, I’m not really into attacking King in this spot (though I do have Ohtani rostered). I have no interest in Padres (3.54), but do like Yamamoto at a cost above $9.5K even in a tough spot against a contact prone team. Of course, the fact that everyone else might like him too may have me consider going a bit underweight on him in multi-entry. I chose to go cheaper (Detmrse/Pfaadt) in single entry on DraftKings.
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