Small slate on Thursday, which means no DFS notes and I may be able to go deeper into a game or two if warranted. Quick reminder that I'm now using actual stats for defense and bullpen. The first is an average of Statcast Runs Prevented (team) + Projected Lineup Statcast Field Run Value. B30 is an average of team bullpen SIERA, FIP, xFIP L30 days. See yesterday's post for the longer explanation.
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Mets @ Braves
The only year Jose Quintana had a lower Zone rate than his 33.7% through two starts was 2020. He’s never had a swinging strike rate anywhere near his 4.8% so far. Thus, a 4.3 K-BB% through two starts. He’s also one third of the way to his 2023 Barrels total in just 15% of the innings. Last year, it was the home run suppression that saved him. This year, it’s a 98.6 LOB%. The Braves have a 79 wRC+ and 28.3 K% v LHP, but a 136 team wRC+ over the last seven days.
DEF: -4
B30: 3.72
Alan Winans is projected for an ERA below four by almost every major projection system because they don’t project him to start a single game. He did have an 18.4 K-BB% over six MLB starts last year with estimators around four. The 28 year-old has been a league average AAA pitcher the past few years, so no expectation that he’ll be any better than that in the majors. The Mets have a 74 wRC+, but 11.2 K-BB% against RHP.
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.07
Twins @ Tigers
Following a dominant outing in Kansas City on Opening Day, Pablo Lopez followed up with an uncomfortable one against Cleveland, despite all three of his Barrels coming in KC. The five fewer strikeouts turned into more BABIP woes though. Since last season, Lopez has a 22.8 K-BB% and 3.61 ERA that is above all estimators in the lower threes. The Tigers have a 95 wRC+ against RHP.
DEF: 1
B30: 3.65
Tarik Skubal has struck out 15 of 46 batters with an 18.3 SwStr%. He’s allowed two Home Runs, but just one Barrel and a 27.6 Hard%. He has a 28.4 K-BB%, 2.82 ERA and 2.74 SIERA since last season. The Twins have a 104 wRC+ against LHP.
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.76
Both of these pitchers feature strongly graded four-seam fastballs by PitchingBot and both of these offenses have a negative run value against fastballs this year. Not that this is projectable, but both offenses have a sub-85 wRC+ over the last week. Both defenses have been better than average and both bullpens project and have performed near the top of the league. This should be a pitcher’s duel (u7 -115). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Brewers @ Reds
Freddy Peralta has struck out 15 of 43 batters with just two walks, but three Barrels. With a 31.1 K% since last season, all estimators are below his 3.81 ERA over that span. His fastball is getting 18% better vertical movement than the average fastball and carries a 64 PitchingBot grade, while the slider has a 44% whiff rate through two starts. The Reds had just a 94 wRC+ at home last year and against RHP this year.
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.89
Nick Martinez has an 18.8 K% and 26.9 GB% through two starts. Those numbers, should they continue, probably won’t cut it in Cincinnati, especially with a 42.9% hard hit rate. Including his bullpen work, estimators are about a quarter run above his 3.74 ERA since last year, but PitchingBot just isn’t buying on his fastball (41 grade) and the Brewers (125 wRC+ v RHP) have been a fastball thumping team. I’ve never bought into Martinez as a starter and I’m not going to start now.
DEF: 1
B30: 4.40
Everything you see written above has pushed me towards MIL either -120 full game or -125 F5. (Follow RockyJade on ActionNetwork.)
Astros @ Royals
Hunter Brown has faced two difficult offenses (Yankees, Rangers), but did not reach a 7 SwStr% in either start and has walked six of 39 batters with a 59 Hard%, despite not allowing a single Barrel yet. Rather than turning things around with a fresh new start, he’s continuing the downward spiral that began in the second half last season, which includes a downtick in velocity of almost a mph from last year’s average. The four-seam and cutter have made up 64.8% of his pitches so far and both have been hammered for a wOBA above .400 and xwOBA above .350. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .315 wOBA and xwOBA against Brown since last year. None of this is good and the Kansas City offense is improved (108 wRC+ v RHP).
DEF: 2
B30: 4.66
Striking out 14 of 48 Twins and White Sox with a 15.8 SwStr% may only be semi-impressive, but an 80% ground ball rate with just six hard hit balls is tough to ignore. Still, it’s sinker/slider more than 75% of the time. Statcast says he’s throwing a four-seamer 18.2% this year, but don’t worry, it’s not very good. In fact, none of his pitches grade out even average by PitchingBot standards and it’s tough to believe his shtick will work as well against the Astros (118 wRC+, 19.7 K%, 15.7 HR/FB v RHP).
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.76
I don’t believe Houston’s bullpen is really this bad, but I do believe that Kansas City can hold their own defensively and compete offensively (though Houston still has that edge as well). As much as I think Singer’s start has been smoke and mirrors, I know that Brown has been bad and make the Royals the favorites here. These are two teams racing towards the middle. One from the bottom and one from the top. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Why does this matchup have me thinking of the Rolling Stones?
Athletics @ Rangers
J.P. Sears led the A’s in innings pitched last year (172.1), but they weren’t necessarily good innings. In two starts this year, he’s yet to reach 10 IP. With just a 19.4 GB%, he’s been hammered for a 48.6 Hard%, walking more (three) than he’s struck out (two). He’s rightfully cut down his four-seam usage and increased his sweeper (now 38.2%), but it’s been just as bad (.382 xwOBA, 16.7 Whiff%). In fact, he doesn’t have a single pitch with a 20% whiff rate (remember, whiffs are misses per swing where swinging strikes are per pitches thrown). Batters from either side of the plate are above a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year with a 4.73 SIERA his lowest estimator over that span. The Rangers have a 149 wRC+ and 8.7 K-BB% against southpaws in the early going.
DEF: -5
B30: 4.11
Jon Gray has been just as bad, not getting through four in either of his two starts with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five) and a 48.3 Hard%. His velocity has been down more than a mph in both starts with his fastball getting smacked for a wOBA and xwOBA above .400. All of his estimators are above a 4.21 ERA since last year, while LHBs have smoked him for a .333 wOBA and .353 xwOBA over that span. The only thing in his favor is a matchup with the A’s (85 wRC+, 27.8 K% v RHP).
DEF: 3
B30: 4.20
Those numbers are pretty rough, except for the Oakland offense and Texas defense, while the bullpens have been competent too. As such, I think there’s likely to be a lot of early scoring in this game (o5.5 F5). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Pirates @ Phillies
Jared Jones has never had a walk rate below 8.9% at any stop in the minors. He’s walked two and struck out 17 (20.7 SwStr%) of 48 batters with a 75 Z-Contact%! Problematically, he’s allowed six Barrels (21.4%) and a 51.7% hard hit rate, but he’s gassing in fastballs (97 mph) and sliders (88 mph) 86.9% of the time and both pitches have a whiff rate above 40% with PitchingBot grades of 69 and 59. If he keeps at this pace, even with the Barrels, Statcast gives him a 3.54 xERA. The Phillies have really struggled against RHP (73 wRC+, 24.3 K%).
DEF: -6
B30: 2.93
Ranger Suarez has just an 8.5 SwStr%, but a 64.3 GB%, 28.6 Hard% and just one walk through two starts. He’s throwing his sinker two mph slower than last year, but perhaps that’s intentional because the pitch has better metrics and movement, though it receives just a 48 PitchingBot grade with a break even Run Value via Statcast. It’s tough to evaluate any other pitcher because there’s five of them thrown no more than 15% of the time. Suarez has an ERA and SIERA in the low fours since last year, but a massive platoon split (RHBs .332 wOBA, .331 xwOBA). The Pirates won’t stay as hot as their 138 wRC+, 13.3 BB% and 16.7 HR/FB against LHP, but believe they are an improved offense with some real bats.
DEF: -2
B30: 3.59
It’s actually tough to say the Phillis have a decent edge in any aspect of this game (their defense has been better). That’s not to say it will remain that way, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Jones had a better season than Suarez. PIT +132 (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Orioles @ Red Sox
While it took Grayson Rodriguez until his second stint post-All-Star break to get it going at the major league level last year, he’s fired right out of the gate in 2024, striking out 16 of 49 batters (13.3 SwStr%) with three walks and just three runs allowed. The problem is that all three were Home Runs with a 46.7 Hard%. The Orioles will take it. He didn’t have a Barrel problem last year (7.3%) and not all his Barrels are going to leave the yard this year. They’re mainly looking for improved command from Gray-Rod and it looks like they’ve got it. PitchingBot gives a 60+ grade to his four-seam, changeup and cutter in the early going. The Red Sox have a 98 wRC+ and 24.5 K% v RHP.
DEF: 1.5
B30: 2.96
Garrett Whitlock started in the rotation last year until injuries and ineffectiveness moved him to the pen post-break. While he’s allowed just one run over 9.1 innings to the Mariners and Angels, he struck out eight without a walk in his first start, but earned four of both in his second. He’s kept half his contact on the ground with just one Barrel, but only a 6.6 SwStr%. Contact neutral estimators are about a run below his 4.67 ERA since last year and others about half a run, so there is hope. Boston is encouraging their pitchers to cut down on their fastball usage…significantly. In Whitlock’s case, it’s a sinker (52.5% to 23.6%) and with a .386 wOBA, .389 xwOBA against last year, that’s a pretty smart move. He’s thrown five pitches between 12.6% and 28% this year. That’s not to say they’re all great, but it’s a better approach. The O’s have a 118 wRC+ and 17.4 K% against RHP. What do they need Jackson Holliday for?
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.23
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