I think now is a good time to start introducing some actual bullpen stats in contrast to Fangraphs projections. The quick and dirty way I do that is an average of bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP over a rolling 30 day period and then I'll look for reliever usage the next day and make manual adjustments. I really don't have the time for anything more complex right now. As it's only been about two weeks, take these with a grain of salt for another week or so at least. I'm going to start referring to that as B30 in order to save time.
In addition, I use a combination of Statcast team Runs Prevented and also projected lineup Statcast Fielding Run Value (I know this adds in the DH, but close enough) and am going to start referring to that average as DEF, also in order to save time. They will appear under the paragraphs concerning the corresponding starting pitcher. We'll see how that goes.
If you find the information on this site helpful, donations are welcome (mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal), so that I can continue doing this and make the site more pleasant to look at.
Dodgers @ Twins
An outing after striking out 11 Cardinals with a 9.7 SwStr%, Bobby Miller was chased in the second ining against the Cubs. Now with a modest 24.8 K% and 11.2 SwStr% for his career, PitchingBot really likes the 70 fastballs he’s thrown through two starts none the less (59 grade). His 3.89 career ERA is complemented by similar estimators. On a positive note in this spot, the Twins (67 wRC+, 27.2 K% v RHP, 67 wRC+ L7 days) struggle with fastballs and generally line up six LHBs against RHP, while Miller has held batters from that side to a wOBA and xwOBA below .280 in his career.
DEF: -2
B30: 4.01
Making only his sixth start since the start of the 2022 season, Chris Paddack struck out just two of 18 Brewers with a 7.3 SwStr%, though his velocity was in line with his five 2022 starts. The good news is that Paddack has never had a walk rate higher than 5.5% in his rookie season. The bad is that he hasn’t reached his 26.9 K% from that season either and can’t seem to stay off the IL. He probably doesn’t want none of the Dodgers (126 wRC+ v RHP), though may get lucky to avoid Will Smith in an early weekday game.
DEF: 2
B30: 3.65
Philles @ Cardinals
All of your pitching frustration under one roof. Both of these pitchers have exceeded a 15 HR/FB since last year. Aaron Nola has struck out just seven of 46 batters (8.4 SwStr%) with five walks, though he’s also allowed just one Barrel with 52.9% of his contact on the ground. Last year, he had a 19.8 K-BB% with 45 Barrels (32 Home Runs). His ERA (4.11) has been frustratingly well above peripherals (3.36 FIP, 3.26 xFIP) since 2021. He gets a park upgrade here against a struggling offense (78 wRC+, 26.9 K%, 5.7 BB% v RHP).
DEF: -2
B30: 3.59
Lance Lynn did not allow a run through four rain soaked innings against the Dodgers in his first start, but made up for that with three bombs and four Barrels in Miami last time out. He’s struck out 12 of 40 with a 13.1 SwStr%, but has allowed 47 Home Runs on 61 Barrels since last year. The Phillies have struggled more than the Cardinals (74 wRC+ v RHP, but with a 10.8 BB% and 15.7 HR/FB).
DEF: 2
B30: 3.54
I’m tempted to lean St Louis as a home dog (114) where the only clear Philadelphia advantage is starting pitching. Will revisit in the morning.
Mariners @ Blue Jays
Logan Gilbert has struck out 15 of 49 batters (13.5 SwStr%), but was taken deep three times in Milwaukee last time out. No cause for concern for a pitcher with a 20.3 K-BB% and 3.72 ERA, SIERA and xFIP since last year, though PitchingBot grades all his pitches as merely average through two starts. The Blue Jays have just an 84 wRC+ and 6.2 HR/FB against RHP, but not a lot of strikeouts in their lineup.
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.01
Yusei Kikuchi has struck out 11, but walked five of 42 batters. An 18.8 K-BB% since last season is in All-Star territory. He’s allowed just two Barrels, but has an 11% Barrels/BBE since 2021. Contact neutral estimators tread closely to his 3.81 ERA since last season. The Mariners strike out a ton against RHP, but have a 107 wRC+ and 18.9 K% in a small sample against LHP.
DEF: -1
B30: 5.29 - surprising, even missing Romero and Swanson
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
This is where we save some time. These pitchers have estimators above five perennially and of their four combined starts this year, just one has completed five innings. The Diamondbacks have been 30 points better against LHP and I wouldn’t be surprised if they sustained something close to that gap.
DEF: 5, -4.5
B30: 3.64, 5.04
Update: If you consider starting pitching equally poor, the Diamondbacks have a massive edge in every other aspect of this game (offense, defense, bullpen). I don't like that the line has dropped, but it's at a point (-120) I can no longer ignore.
Nationals @ Giants
Patrick Corbin developed a new cutter and has thrown it just 26 times this year. Why? Could it possibly be any worse (15.8 K% since last year)? The Giants have a 105 wRC+ and 5.0 K-BB% against LHP so far.
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.05 (Surprise #1)
The sinker (61 PitchingBot, 9% more drop than an average sinker) has been a weapon for Jordan Hicks. Thrown slower, but with more movement. He’s struck out 11 of 45 with just one walk and a 56.3 GB%. The Nats have a 116 wRC+ and 11.1 K-BB% v RHP (Surprise #2).
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.42
Rays @ Angels
Zack Littell’s 3.3 BB% drives a 16.9 K-BB% since last season. Estimators nearly match his 3.74 ERA over this span. He’s allowed one run with an 85 mph EV through two starts this year. The Angels have a 92 wRC+ (24.5 K%) v RHP, but 120 wRC+ (9.3 K-BB%) over the last seven days.
DEF: 2
B30: 5.69 (Wow!)
Griffin Canning’s fastball is down two mph and all over the place, though that hasn’t stopped him from throwing it 42.2% of the time. He’s struck out just six of 46 batters (8.0 SwStr%) with four Home Runs on seven Barrels (20%). PitchingBot slaps a 32 grade on his fastball this year. The Rays have a 110 wRC+ against RHP. Both pitchers have reverse splits that could hinder them here, Canning more than Littell.
DEF: 2
B30: 5.24
Considering Canning’s futility, I like some Rays F5 (-130). (Follow RockyJade on Action Netowrk.)
Update: I just saw Jose Soriano is getting the spot start here. The 25 year-old started just two AA games last year. His presence changes nothing in my mind.
White Sox @ Guardians
Through two starts, Erick Fedde has a 25.6 K%, but just a 6.9 SwStr% and horrific 95.7 Z-Contact%, allowing just three runs, but five Barrels (17.2%). PitchingBot doesn’t see any of his pitches as better than average with the sinker (39%) fetching a below average 45 grade. I’m not as impressed as the surface numbers suggest I should be. The Guardians have a 112 wRC+ and 18.2 K% against RHP.
DEF: 2
B30: 5.14
Tanner Bibee bounced back from an awful first start in Oakland (five walks, four strikeouts) to strike out nine of 23 Twins without a walk (17.6 SwStr%). Estimators are about a run above his career 3.03 ERA. He allowed just 24 Barrels last year (6.1%), but has already allowed three this year (11.5%). Bibee is in a great spot against the White Sox (74 wRC+ v RHP & L7 days).
DEF: -0.5
B30: 3.36
Cubs @ Padres
Kyle Hendricks has been shelled for five runs in each of his starts (@TEX, LAD) with four Barrels (12.1%) and a 6.5 SwStr%. He has just a 15.9 K% since last season and is facing an offense with an 18 K% (107 wRC+) against RHP this year.
DEF: -4
B30: 4.30
Dylan Cease has had one rough start, followed by a strong effort, both against the Giants (13.9 SwStr%). Four walks have brought his walk rate since the beginning of last season down to an even 10%. That’s been the problem here, as he’s struck out 27.5% of batters faced. That said, estimators are still about half a run below his 4.51 ERA over this span. The slider is punching a 50 Whiff% this year. The Cubs have a 113 wRC+ and 5.6 K-BB% against RHP this year.
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.76
I don’t like Hendricks’s chances against an offense that doesn’t strike out. I don’t love the matchup for Cease either, but certainly see him as the superior pitcher (SDP -142 F5). (Follow RockyJade on Actoin Network.)
DFS Notes: The first important piece of business is to note that there are significant weather issues on this slate. It contains seven games and three of them are at risk of not being played, while two are more likely to be rained out than not, according to @KevinRothWx’s weather report on RotoGrinders. This isn’t one of them and we have some pretty nice weather here (mid-70’s), but it’s still a pitcher’s park.
If not Cease, then who? He has the second highest strikeout rate on the board since last season and the top guy (Greene) pitches in a terrible park and may be headed for a PPD. The Cubs have the second lowest implied run line (3.64). However, that also makes Cubs bats interesting if you’re not rostering Cease, as a contrarian play. Batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA above .300 against him since last year. He’s not immune to the occasional blowup and has games where he can’t find the plate. Suzuki (126 wRC+, .203 ISO v RHP since LY) is my favorite Cub tonight. Absolutely no interest in Hendricks against the Padres (4.36) and how about a Jackson Merrill punt if you need some salary saving (148 wRC+ v RHP with a .393 wOBA and xwOBA). He costs less than $3K.
Brewers @ Reds
Wade Miley had an 8.3 K-BB% and his lowest ground ball rate since 2013 (46.3%) last year. He doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact (31.3%), but almost every projection system sees him above four and a half this year. The Reds have a 115 wRC+ and 17.2 HR/FB against LHP. Miley has been a Barrel suppressor (5.3%) in the Statcast era.
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.89
Hunter Green walked four Nationals in his first start (30.5 Zone%). Same story, different year, but pumped nothing but strikes (47.5 Zone%) against the Mets (one walk). Greene exceeded his Zone% against the Mets just five times in his career. He’s also allowed just one Barrel on a 26.9 Hard%. He’s always had the stuff for greatness and still may need a third pitch (11 splitters this year), though it is RHBs with a .361 wOBA against him since last year. The fastballs has a 60 grade (PitchingBot) and 37.5 Whiff% through two starts, so keep pumping it in there. The Brewers have a stunning 124 wRC+ v RHP (16.9 HR/FB) and 125 over the last seven days.
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.40
DFS Notes: Should the weather forecast miraculously improve, Hunter Greene does have the highest strikeout rate on the board since last year and can beat any team in any park if he pitches like he did last time out, but consistency has never been his strong suit. That’s why Milwaukee (4.05) power bats would be fine here too. Christian Yelich has a 192 wRC+ this year. Imagine getting through the rain and then suffering through six innings of weak contact from Wade Miley in this park with your Reds stack (4.45). Spencer Steer leads the team in wRC+ this year (229), as well as wRC+ (145) and ISO (.246) against LHP since last year.
Marlins @ Yankees
Ryan Weathers has held a 1.2 mph increase in velocity over two starts, but he’s throwing those fastballs in poor locations and getting pummeled with it (.531 wOBA, .453 xwOBA). He’s otherwise struck out 11 of 45 batters (11.7 SwStr%), but also walked five to go along with five Barrels. Weathers still has estimators above five since last season and the Yankees have a 137 wRC+ (14.6 BB%) against LHP so far.
DEF -7.5
B30: 4.38
Marcus Stroman has not allowed an earned run over 12 innings and has been so good that PitchingBot grades every single one of his pitches below average. Hmm…a 48.5 GB%, 23.5 Hard%, 1 Barrel and just an 8.5 SwStr%. He’s also pitched against two tough offenses (@HOU, TOR). This season’s estimators on average are right around his 3.63 ERA since last season. The Marlins have a 91 wRC+ v RHP and 58 over the last seven days.
DEF: 2
B30: 4.56
DFS Notes: Not against this lineup with Weathers. The Yankees are one of three teams above five implied runs (5.11), but it’s not the greatest hitting weather and they’re not cheap. I don’t have any Yankees in my primary lineup, but all those projected have been above average hitters against LHP since last year except for Verdugo (85 wRC+). Stroman should be successful in this spot, but is far over-valued above $9.5K. Little to no interest in Miami bats though at a board low 3.39 run total.
Orioles @ Red Sox
Cole Irvin’s first start of the season against the Royals featured a 7.4 SwStr% and FIVE Barrels. He allowed 10.8% Barrels/BBE last year, but just 11 Home Runs because Baltimore pushed the left field wall back to Virginia. However, the Red Sox have a 96 wRC+ against LHP and that projected lineup looks atrocious (six above a 27.5 K% v LHP since last year).
DEF: 1
B30: 2.96
Kutter Crawfod has increased his sweeper usage (6.7% to 32.2%) and his ground ball rate (34.9% to 52%) with just a 26.9 Hard% through two starts. His estimators since last season match a 3.79 ERA over that span, but the Red Sox are making a concentrated team effort to change the pitches they throw. The O’s have a 113 wRC+ against RHP and Happy Jackson Holliday…day?
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.23
DFS Notes: This is the least risky of the three rain games and it looks like it’s going to be hit or miss. I hate going with pitchers in this park, even in pitcher friendly weather and I absolutely can’t believe I’m going to say this, but Cole Irvin ($6.2K) is my DK SP2. There are just so many Ks in that banged up Boston lineup. I’m not sure how they have a 4.5 team run total, same as Baltimore. Crawford is not an easy roster against a tough offense in this park, but I’d understand if conditions made you do it. With batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, I’m not terribly high on Baltimore bats either.
Mets @ Braves
The only year Jose Quintana had a lower Zone rate than his 33.7% through two starts was 2020. He’s never had a swinging strike rate anywhere near his 4.8% so far. Thus, a 4.3 K-BB% through two starts. He’s also one third of the way to his 2023 Barrels total in just 15% of the innings. Last year, it was the home run suppression that saved him. This year, it’s a 98.6 LOB%. The Braves have a 79 wRC+ and 28.3 K% v LHP, but a 136 team wRC+ over the last seven days.
DEF: -4
B30: 3.72
Alan Winans is projected for an ERA below four by almost every major projection system because they don’t project him to start a single game. He did have an 18.4 K-BB% over six MLB starts last year with estimators around four. The 28 year-old has been a league average AAA pitcher the past few years, so no expectation that he’ll be any better than that in the majors. The Mets have a 74 wRC+, but 11.2 K-BB% against RHP.
This game is likely to be the Mets fourth or fifth rainout this year anyway.
DEF: 1.5
B30: 4.07
DFS Notes: A likely washout pulls the top offense off the board (5.27). We’re obviously not considering pitching in this game either way, but I had Brandon Nimmo (140 wRC+, .230 ISO v RHP since LY) as a top bat too (Mets 4.23).
Astros @ Royals
Hunter Brown is being replaced by…Spaghetti? (Adjusts glasses) Ah, Spencer Arrighetti, who I’ve seen ranked as high as the best Houston pitching prospect, but also given just a 40 Future Value grade by Fangraphs. The 24 year-old has a single digit K-BB% over 72.1 AAA IP and has had ground ball rates in the 30s throughout his minor league travels. The Royals have a 108 wRC+ against RHP.
DEF: 2
B30: 4.65
Seth Lugo has allowed just a run through 12.1 innings, despite a 14.3 K% because he’s kept 55.3% of his contact on the ground with just one Barrel. He’s still produced a 16.5 K-BB% since last year with estimators about half a run above his 3.34 ERA over that span. The Astros have a 118 wRC+, 19.7 K% and 15.7 HR/FB against RHP.
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.76
DFS Notes: I have no interest in pitching in this game, though you could punt and pray with Spaghetti in an SP2 spot. These are the fourth (4.88) and fifth (4.62) teams above five implied runs tonight. Astros as you can afford them. The top six in the normal lineup against RHP all exceed a 110 wRC+ and .175 ISO against RHP since last year. Alvarez is a top bat if you can afford him. I have MJ Melendez (219 wRC+ this year) in my lineup as a value play ($3.6K or less). Bobby Witt Jr. and Nelson Velazquez are also off to hot starts (wRC+ > 180).
Athletics @ Rangers
Ross Stripling has been fine through two home starts against marginal offenses (BOS, CLE) with a 14 K-BB%, no Barrels and a 23.1% hard contact rate. The Home Run ball has been an issue (4.99 FIP since last season) with more contact neutral estimators closer to four since the start of last season. Due to those contact issues, batters from either side of the plate are within four points of a .350 xwOBA against him since last year. The Rangers exceed a 120 wRC+ at home last year, against RHP this year and over the last seven days.
DEF: -5
B30: 4.11
Cody Bradford has allowed three runs over 12.2 innings with just one walk and two Barrels. How is he doing it? I found this gem from PitchersList.com after his last start “his velocity (and horrible attack angle) are getting nullified by his extension and rise”. That doesn’t mean he’ll sustain these results, but PitchingBot doesn’t grade any of his pitches as below average through two starts and batters from either side of the plate are within a .290 to .310 wOBA and xwOBA range since last season. The Athletics have a 120 wRC+ against LHP, but I don’t think they’ll hold that 30.8 HR/FB.
DEF: 2.5
B30: 4.20
DFS Notes: Unfortunately, Bradford costs more than $8.5K and that’s just nuts. With the Rangers the third team above five implied runs (5.14), we’re not interested in Stripling. My main lineup is a Texas stack inside the only protected environment on the slate and I suppose I won’t be alone at all, but that’s fine for single entry. Evan Carter and Cory Seager both exceed a 180 wRC+ and .300 ISO against RHP since last year. Top bats, along with Marcus Semien (125, .210). I also have Mr. Bangeliers (165 wRC+ this season) as my punt Catcher, within $100 of $2.5K on either site. Brent Rooker and J.D. Davis are also cheap and both exceed a 110 wRC+ and .200 ISO against southpaws since 2023.
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