I believe an 11 game slate for Tuesday is the largest of the season so far. Soon, it will likely be the norm, although more and more teams are employing the pre-7pm ET start time.
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Tigers @ Pirates
Martin Perez is nowhere near as good as his 2.45 ERA through two starts. Like last year, his estimators remain above four and a half. Casey Mize showed us nothing new in his return from Tommy John surgery. The Detroit offense has been awful, while the Pirates have calmed down too. Both bullpens are in the upper half of the league. The Pittsburgh defense has been atrocious (-7 OAA already), while Detroit has been above average (3 OAA).
Orioles @ Red Sox
Corbin Burnes was more pedestrian in his seconds tart (three strikeouts), but still went through the Royals three times. He doesn’t have an estimator above four since last season. A whopping 77% of his pitches have been cutters or curves and PitchingBot likes what it sees, while the Red Sox have struggled with both pitches early on. Burnes gets a park downgrade against an offense that has started hot though (110 wRC+ v RHP, 122 L7 days through Sunday).
Brayan Bello struck out just two Mariners then was roughed up in Oakland. Inconsistency has been the name of his game with an overall 4.31 ERA since last season that fits estimators. PitchingBot likes his sinker (59 @ 42.7%) and the O’s have really struggled against fastballs in the early going and overall in the last week (65 wRC+), but have hit RHP well (114 wRC+) this year.
There’s nothing interesting to report about either defense or bullpen.
White Sox @ Guardians
Mike Soroka has failed to impress through two starts with more walks (three) and as many home runs allowed (two) as strikeouts, though he did ground the Royals on 70% of batted balls. It’s not like he’s likely to start missing bats in Cleveland (106 wRC+, 18.4 K% v RHP).
Logan Allen has kept 54.3% of his contact on the ground with a 25.7 Hard% through two starts (@OAK, @SEA). Estimators remain nearly half a run above his 3.68 ERA since last season. He does have some platoon issues over this span (RHBs .333 wOBA, .324 xwOBA), but the White Sox have just a 45 against LHP so far with their best right-handed hitters on the IL.
Neither defense has been remarkable, though Cleveland projects some of the best gloves in the league. The middling Cleveland bullpen projects half a run better than Chicago.
Brewers @ Reds
Two guys who have totaled 16 innings combined since the start of last season going here. Ross throws sliders. Montas throws splitters. Neither has awed. Ross walked five, but held his 2021 velocity and kept half his contact on the ground. Montas had a velocity drop in his second start, though the overall results were fine with estimators averaging around three and a half. The Milwaukee offense has been crushing (129 wRC+ v RHP, 125 L7 days), the Cincinnati offense was not (68 wRC+ L7 days), but have exploded on Monday night.
The Milwaukee defense has been excellent and they project a much better bullpen too.
We can’t be too sure what either starting pitcher can be at this point, but the Milwaukee offense, defense and bullpen have been much better with the latter two projected to remain that way. I don’t see why the Brewers (+130) are much of a dog here. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Marlins @ Yankees
What the Puk, A.J.? All the good will from March gone in two starts. He’s walked nine of 35 batters with just six strikeouts. He did look slightly better in his second start against the Angels and the velocity ticked up too, but he’s given us no reason to trust him in Yankee Stadium (NYY 99 wRC+ v LHP & L7 days, though both those numbers increased against Luzardo on Monday). The Miami defense has been as terrible as expected too.
Carlos Rodon hasn’t looked good, but it’s not been as disastrous as last year at least. Not sure that 27.3 GB% is going to play in the Bronx though. A 4.95 SIERA is still his best estimator since the start of last season, while batters from either side of the plate have at least a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The Marlins have a 50 wRC+ v LHP and 81 over the L7 days and those numbers may have decreased further on Monday. Neither the Yankee defense, nor either bullpen are remarkable.
DFS Notes: Rodon is difficult to trust, despite the Marlins owning a board low 3.32 implied run line. Does his performance mean fewer people will play him in a great matchup or does the low total mean more will give him a shot? You can’t trust Puk either, but he is cheap and has upside. The Yankees have a top third of the board run total, but expensive bats. Considering cost, I like Gleyber Torres (152 wRC+, .242 ISO v LHP since last season) most, but also see Jake Burger (125, .281) with some value.
Mariners @ Blue Jays
George Kirby has had one great start (BOS) and one awful one (CLE). Neither has changed my opinion about him. His velocity is a bit down, but he also had to ramp up last season post-April. He misses enough bats (22.6 K% since LY) and doesn’t walk anyone (2.6%) and has kept the hard contact to 20.6% through two starts.
Chris Bassitt has struggled at both Tampa Bay and Houston to start the year and has just a 5.9 SwStr% through two starts with four Barrels and a 45.5 Hard%. Estimators are nearly half a run higher than his 3.78 ERA since last season.
Both of these offenses have struggled with a sub-80 wRC+ mark against RHP going into Monday, though the Blue Jays do so with a single digit K-BB%, while the Mariners are at 25.6%. Neither defense has been as impressive as expected so far, while both bullpens project in the top third of the league, though Toronto is down a couple of top arms.
DFS Notes: This is one of two protected environments on the slate with both offenses at a moderate four implied runs. I never hate a guy with peripherals like George Kirby, but he may be too expensive against a dangerous lineup without many strikeouts. The Seattle lineup offers upside (projected two through six hitters all 23.5+ K% v RHP), but I’m having trouble trusting Bassitt right now and the Mariners are not without pop. While not wanting to attack these pitchers either, I recognize the need for cheap bats on this slate and don’t hate a Cavan Biggio ($3K or less), who’s out to a 138 wRC+ start with LHBs being around a .300 wOBA & xwOBA against Kirby. LHBs have a .371 wOBA, .347 xwOBA against Bassitt since last year. J.P. Crawford (133, .196) is in my first draft lineup.
Mets @ Braves
Adrian Houser is going to throw you sinkers (47.8% first start) and hope to get ground balls (46.8%, 19.8 K% since last year). Estimators average a bit below four and a half, so he does a decent enough job of that for a back of the rotation arm. Problematically, the Braves have a 167 wRC+ v RHP. They can’t stay there, but…or can they? The Mets defense has underperformed and been one of the worst in the league (-5 Runs Prevented).
Renaldo Lopez threw about 90% fastballs and sliders in his first start. Who needs a third pitch? Maybe not against the White Sox. Both pitchers had just a 20 Whiff%, which isn’t that impressive, especially the slider. Mets’ bats came into Monday with a 57 wRC+ against RHP, but busted out in Atlanta last night. The Atlanta defense has been surprisingly average. The bullpen projects as one of the best in the game, while the Mets, bullpen is also top half of the league, but has been heavily used in recent days.
If you can find another team to pair with them, the Braves appear to be in a good spot for a parlay, considering the state of the New York bullpen (and that they have a wRC+ 100 points higher against RHP).
DFS Notes: Yes, all your Braves again. They have the top team run total (5.45) outside Coors. They’re a bit cost prohibitive for my main lineup and Houser hasn’t been terrible against RHBs (.292 wOBA, .307 xwOBA since LY), but smoke ‘em if ya got ‘em. I’m not interested in Lopez for $8K and Mets bats have broken out the last two days. They’re 4.05 team run total is middle of the board, but I’m loving Brandon Nimmo (141 wRC+, .232 ISO v RHP since LY) in this spot. He had four hits last night, including two HRs, one of them a top 10 EV for his career. Even in relief last year, LHBs have a .315 xwOBA against Lopez since 2023. Nimmo is far too cheap for this kind of production.
Astros @ Royals
Cristian Javier has a changeup kids (4.1% 2023, 30.5% 2024) and it might be good (35.7 Whiff%, 56 PitchingBot grade). He has just a 9.1 SwStr% overall and walked five Blue Jays last time out, but still hasn’t allowed a run or Barrel with four popups and five hard hit balls. Otherwise, his 4.27 ERA since last season is below all estimators. The Royals have a 113 wRC+ (15.4 HR/FB) against RHP so far.
Cole Ragans has struck out 16 of 48 batters with a 17 SwStr%, 51.9 GB% and just one Barrel. He’s the real deal and his reverse platoon (RHBs < .270 wOBA and xwOBA since LY) will help against the Astros, who brought a 92 wRC+ against LHP into Monday’s breakout against Andrew Heaney.
The Royals have had the slightly better defense, though the Astros have a much better bullpen. As such, I actually make the Royals favorites at home for the F5. It’s aggressive, but I think there’s some value in -105. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
DFS Notes: Yes, Cole Ragans. Yes, yes, yes…for $8.2K on DraftKings. It’s a bit more questionable on FanDuel ($9.9K). I’m not attacking Ragans with his reverse split, though the Astros have a 4.45 team run total and could totally understand Alvarez (154 wRC+, .238 ISO v LHP since LY) or Tucker (154, .261). I’m not as interested in Javier at a similar cost. Perhaps that’s a mistake, but this is a better Kansas City offense and batters from either side of the plate sit within a .315 to .320 xwOBA against him since last year. Witt Jr. (118, .220) is a fine SS choice if you can afford him. Melendez (112, .201) and Velazquez (151, .376) have value as well.
Dodgers @ Twins
While Tyler Glasnow has struck out just 15 of his first 66 batters as a Dodger, he’s done so with a 13.6 SwStr% and increasing strikeout totals with each start. Hard to hold that first game (three) against him. Go ahead and throw your fastball 55% of the time when PitchingBot puts a 65 grade on it. And also when you’re facing a team like the Twins (75 wRC+, 26.9 K% v RHP), who struggle against good fastballs. The Dodger defense has been slightly in the negative with their infield experiment.
Louis Varland can miss bats (12.4 SwStr% first start) and even had a 57.1 GB% in his first start with just one Barrel, but couldn’t make it past four innings. He has an 18.4 K-BB% since last year with contact neutral estimators about a run below his 4.75 ERA over that span, but also has a 21.8 HR/FB. Pretty scary against the Dodgers (129 wRC+ v RHP). The Minnesota defense has been fine, which is a marked improvement from last year. The Twins might have the better bullpen too, but the absence of Duran closes that gap.
DFS Notes: Cool (mid-50s), but wind blowing out to left center at nearly 10 mph. Glasnow is a top two pitcher on the board in both cost and projection. They are dangerous and Glasnow has had long ball issues in the past, but only one batter in the projected Minnesota lineup below a 21.5 K% v RHP since last year. I don’t have any Twins, but Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner all exceed a 140 wRC+ v RHP since last season too and LHBs have been around a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Glasnow. The Dodgers have the fourth highest run total on the board (4.84) and Mookie (166, .255) and Shohei (198, .379) are top bats. I don’t love the Dodgers under these conditions (park, weather), but am not touching Varland either.
Phillies @ Cardinals
Zach Wheeler’s velocity is down an average of 2 mph since last season and worse in the second game than the first, but he’s still struck out 15 of 48 batters (18.7 SwStr%) with a 51.6 GB% and just two Barrels, throwing his four-seamer 45.1% of the time and why not if PitchingBot still grades it a 59. The Cardinals have been below average against fastballs, as well as against RHP (81 wRC+, 27.1 K%).
Sonny Gray makes his first St Louis start off of two great years in Minnesota (16.8 K-BB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE). That said, non-FIP estimators (7.0 HR/FB) were nearly a run above his 2.90 ERA over this span and that’s about where his 2024 projections stand as well. The Phillies are down to just a 74 wRC+ against RHP after Monday’s affair, despite a 10.7 BB% and 15.4 HR/FB. St Louis is a tough power park in the early months of the season though. I'd expect Gray to be on a shorter pitch count than normal.
St Louis has had the better defense thus far, while bullpens project similarly in the middle of the league.
DFS Notes: The velocity doesn’t seem to be causing issues for Wheeler and he’s a top two arm for me, along with Glasnow. I’m debating paying up for him in my single entry lineup right now. Five with a 22+ K% v RHP since LY in the projected lineup. I have no interest in Cardinal bat (3.54). No interest in Philly bats (3.96) either in this park against Sonny Gray, who’s likely to be too limited for our purposes at more than $8K.
Athletics @ Rangers
While Alex Wood struck out seven of 24 Red Sox in his second start, he did so with an 8.3 SwStr%. He has just an 8.2 K-BB% since last year and half his contact has been at a 95 mph EV or higher this year. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season as well. The Rangers have a 136 wRC+ against LHP and 127 over the last seven days, while the Oakland defense has been one of the worst in the league.
After an unremarkable first start, Nathan Eovaldi dominated the Rays, striking out eight (20.4 SwStr%) without a single hard hit ball. All of his estimators through his first two starts are far better than last year, a broken season. The A’s are below a 90 wRC+ v RHP and over the L7 days, while the Texas defense has prevented four runs via Statcast.
Fangraphs actually projects the A’s to have the better bullpen this year.
DFS Notes: The other protected environment on this slate, Eovaldi is in my first lineup around the $9K mark against this futile Oakland offense (3.45) with a ton of strikeouts in it. That said, I don’t hate Zack Gelof (164, .284) against a reverse split pitcher. Alternately, stack your Rangers (5.05) as affordable. None in my main build, but Duran (123, .227) almost made it ($2.6K or less), while Semien, Heim, Garcia and Seager all exceed a 120 wRC+ v LHP since last year, while batters from either side are above a .320 wOBA, xwOBA against Wood.
Update: Tex 126 wRC+ at home last year in addition to numbers above. Adding TEX o4.5 (-140).
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Merrill Kelly has pitched solidly in two home starts against the Rockies and Yankees (22.9 K-BB%). He has just a 31.4 Hard%, but five of the 11 have been Barrels (14.3%). This was not an issue last season (7.8% Barrels/BBE) when he posted the highest K-BB (16.3%) of his career outside 2020. The Rockies had an 80 wRC+ at home last season and 84 v RHP (27.5 K%) this year.
Cal Quantrill has walked one more than he’s struck out (5/4) in two road starts for the Rockies and has only generated a 35.3 GB%. Coming off a 5.2 K-BB% last season, Quantrill’s 5.55 since last year matches his estimators.
The defenses are on opposite ends of the spectrum early on (Arizona far better), while the Rockies project the worst bullpen in the majors, nearly three-quarters of a run behind the D’Backs.
DFS Notes: I want my lineup full of affordable Diamondbacks (6.31) in single entry and currently have Moreno (85, .105), Walker (114, .221) and Peterson (120, .188) locked in, but would play more if I could afford them. Batters from either side exceed a .360 xwOBA and .320 wOBA against Quantrill since last year. McMahon, Blackmon and Jones are the only Rockies exceeding a 95 wRC+ against RHP since 2023. I’m considering Kelly ($8.4K DK, though not FD $10.2K) and would go overweight in multi entry. Don’t fear this offense at Coors. The park only boosts a terrible lineup to league average.
Rays @ Angels
Aaron Civale is running an impressive 24.4 K-BB% in two starts against the Blue Jays and Rangers, having allowed just a single Barrel (yet two HRs) and five hard hit balls (28.6%). Elevating everything except his curveball (and five splitters) has led to newfound success. It’s the Rays way and it looks like they may have another weapon (elevated sinkers appear to be the new thing). The Angels have just a 92 wRC+ and 24.5 K% against RHP.
The changeup is still working for Patrick Sandoval (52.6 Whiff%), leading to a 13.6 SwStr% and 60.9 GB% without a Barrel overall, but not much else is. To be fair, a .499 wOBA on his fastball actually holds a .296 xwOBA, though his one successful start was in Miami, while he couldn’t get out of the second inning in Baltimore. Sandoval still has a SIERA and xFIP above four and a half since last season and isn’t in an easy spot against the Rays (103 wRC+ v LHP).
Both defenses have been around average, while there’s a half run gap in Fangraphs’ bullpen projections, favoring the Rays. I elected to play the Rays (F5) (-122) on Monday night with seemingly every advantage in this game except home field, but don’t see much of a difference between this or the full game (-125 last night). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
DFS Notes: Civale is too cheap on DK ($7.7K). I love him in an SP2 spot. I have no interest in LAA bats (4.1), but a one off Trout (156, .296) is never a terrible choice. Six in the projected order exceed a 23 K% v RHP since last year. As was the case last night, I like the cheap Rays RHBs (.333 wOBA, .344 xwOBA v Sandoval since 2023). First seven in the projected order all exceed 110 wRC+ v LHP since LY. They’re 4.4 team total is middle of the board.
Nationals @ Giants
PitchingBot didn’t like any of Josiah Gray’s pitches last year and has already graded all seven of his offerings this year as below average through two starts. His 9.1 K-BB% matches last year’s 9.0% mark. Gray allowed 44 Barrels (9.4%) last year and has already allowed four (13.3%) this year. Batters from both sides of the plate have at least a .333 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. The Giants are scuffling though (77 wRC+ v RHP, 52 L7 days) and it’s still a power suppressing park, so maybe he finds more success here.
Kyle Harrison has failed to impress as well (19.6 K% this year, 9.2 SwStr% career) and has the same issues. Thirteen of his career 130 batted balls have been Barrels. Perhaps a light hitting Washington team (50 wRC+, 5.7 HR/FB v LHP) helps him out as well. They make a lot of contact (21.1 K% v LHP), but it’s not the kind of contact that helps teams score runs.
Both defenses have been around par, though San Francisco was far better last year and has nearly a half run bullpen projection advantage as well.
DFS Notes: The Nationals only make enough contact to ruin your pitching. Wade (126, .169) and Conforto (116, .170) have value. Limited multi entry interest in Gray, even in this park with six projected Giants above a 22.5 K% v RHP since last year.
Update: Aaaand Gray has just been scratched. Another Tommy John upcoming.
Update II: Even projecting Gallo in, only two batters > 20 K% v RHP since last year. Harrison 9.2 SwStr% at major league level, avg 21 BF per start.
Cubs @ Padres
After two relief outings (12.5 SwStr%, 55.6 GB%, three Barrels), Ben Brown will make his first major league start (with a potential side of Drew Smyly). He is a marginally ranked prospect (45+ FV FG), but has exceeded a 30% strikeout rate at the upper levels of the minors, but did struggle with his walk rate (15.8%) in 72.2 AAA innings, doubling his AA rate. PitchingBot likes the curveball (59), though we’ve only seen 35 of them. He’s basically thrown just that and the fastball. Perhaps he’ll break out a third pitch for this start. It’s not a bad spot for him in a pitcher’s park, though the Padres have a 107 wRC+ against RHP and they don’t strike out (18% v RHP).
Joe Musgrove finally had the outing that allowed us to exhale (6 IP – 5 H – 1 R – 1 BB – 7 K) against St Louis after two rough ones (8.1 IP – 15 H – 9 R – 1 HR – 3 BB – 5 K) to start the year. Despite striking out 12 of 65 overall, he holds a 12.5 SwStr% and has allowed just three Barrels (6.7%). Musgrove has a 3.83 SIERA and xFIP since last year, but hopefully this year is a healthier one for him. It’s not an easy spot (Cubs 113 wRC+, 5.7 K-BB% v RHP, 134 L7 days).
The Padres have the early defensive edge, as the Cubs have been a surprising -5 Runs Prevented via Statcast, though the Cubs project the better bullpen via Fangraphs.
DFS Notes: To be honest, I don’t know enough about Brown, but the Padres (4.0) do not strike out enough for a pitcher not expected to pitch deep into the game anyway. Tatis (22.4%) has the highest rate of Ks v RHP in this lineup since last year. The Cubs have just a 3.5 team total against a tough pitcher in a tough park, but I’m kind of lukewarm on Musgrove in this matchup. There’s not much of anything to be interested in here.
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