We're through a week and a half with most pitchers having gone around twice by today or tomorrow, so we can begin to incorporate some fresher stats. Plan on playing some SCOOP tournaments on Pokerstars this week, although it typically only takes me a day to become disgusted that these re-entry, long late registration, bounty shove fest moneygrabs have become the standard. I may have gotten it out of my system already. It was a pretty quick afternoon. Queens into Aces. Set over setted. Bubbled the last one when I ran my first pair of Aces all day into QTo on a Qxx flop.
Ten of 13 games below. The last three will be written up in the morning/early afternoon.
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White Sox @ Guardians
With the White Sox not seeming to be too interested in who pitches Monday, I’m not going to waste much time on it either. The name I’ve read most is Jared Shuster. He projects estimators above five. The Guardians have started hot against LHP this year (151 wRC+). The Chicago defense has been more competent than expected to start the year. The bullpen still projects ahead of only the Rockies
Triston McKenzie was down two ticks on a fastball that was barely registering 90 mph on average in his first start and Seattle made him pay for it. In five starts since the beginning of last season, he owns a 5.92 SIERA and 5.91 xERA. Maybe the White Sox (69 wRC+ v RHP, 59 L7 days – all stats through Sat) will make him look better with a great defense and competent bullpen behind him.
Update: It is expected to be Shuster in the bulk role, but I'm going to attack the under on McKenzie's strikeout prop. In addition to the information above, just a 20 K% since returning last year and five in the CWS LU < 18 K% v RHP since last year.
Marlins @ Yankees
Jesus Luzardo has struck out 13 of the 39 batters he’s faced this year (15.1 SwStr%), but has also surrendered four walks and Barrels, two of them leaving the park. His estimators since last season are still pretty much in line with the 3.62 ERA over that span. The Yankees have a 91 wRC+ v LHP and 89 wRC+ over the L7 days as of Saturday. Expect that to improve. The Miami defense has been as horrid as advertised so far, while the bullpen projects just outside the bottom third of the league.
It took me one quick look at a heat map to figure out why opponents have a .423 wOBA against Nestor Cortes’s four-seam fastball through two games.
(Damn it! I can't figure out how to insert pictures where I want them, so we'll have to settle for a hyperlink above, but it's a picture of a fat red circle right over the middle of the plate.)
He has a 5.15 ERA over 14 starts since last season now and estimators are only a bit more than half a run kinder. We’ll see what happens once he starts spotting the fastball better because the cutter still appears fine. The Marlins have a 48 wRC+ v LHP and 69 L7 days. The Yankee defense has been fine and the pen projects slightly better than the Marlins.
Update: With comparable starting pitching, the price has dropped to a point where the Yankees (-135 F5) have some value at home. They have a large offensive edge and smaller defensive one, but I'd rather avoid a banged up bullpen. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Tigers @ Pirates
Reese Olson only struck out three of 22 Mets in his season debut, but with a 12.9 SwStr% and 62.5 GB% plus only four hard hit balls as he shut them out over 5.2 innings. Estimators are only slightly higher than his 3.79 ERA since the start of last season. Olson appears to be the unheralded prospect in the Detroit organization, faring better than all the higher rated arms except for Tarik Skubal. Both of these teams are 2024 sleepers and the Pirates have shown some competence with the bats (97 wRC+ v RHP, 104 L7 days). The Detroit defense has been above average so far and the pen projects as one of the better ones in the league.
Mitch Keller has the same problem Cortes does with his fastball, except there are two red circles over the middle of the plate and he’s also down over a mph. He allowed five runs (four earned) in each of his two starts in Washington and Miami, not exactly juggernaut offenses. The Nats Barreled him three times. Keller has an 18.1 K-BB% since last season, but also 10% Barrels/BBE. There has to be some concern that he may not repeat his estimators below four last season after his first two starts though. The Tigers have just a 90 wRC+ v RHP and 76 over the L7 days. The Pittsburgh defense has been atrocious to start the year, while the bullpen projects just barely behind Detroit’s.
Brewers @ Reds
Aaron Ashby has thrown just 12 innings since the end of the 2022 season, all at AAA, as he recovers from surgery. Projection systems are a bit optimistic, producing estimates below four. The Reds have started hot in a small sample against LHP (110 wRC+), but have just a 93 wRC+ over the last seven days (through Saturday). The Milwaukee defense has been strong, the bullpen projects well overall, but they are still without their closer.
Graham Ashcraft’s sinker velocity was down two mph in his first start, which makes it strange that he decided to throw more of them than usual. He got a bit lucky, as the pitch had the lowest wOBA against, but highest xwOBA of any of the three pitches he threw more than 20 times. Somehow, he struck out five Phillies with a 14.1 SwStr%, but had 14 hard hit balls (77.8%) against him. Ashcraft has just a 9.7 K-BB% since last season with an ERA and accompanying estimators on the wrong side of four and a half. The Brewers are off to a nice start (106 wRC+ v RHP, 103 L7 days). The defense for Cincinnati has been surprisingly neutral, though the bullpen projects third worst in the majors.
Aaron Ashby certainly projects much better than the pitcher Graham Ashcraft has been or might be with two mph less of velocity, but I’m not ready to put my money on a guy we haven’t seen in two years yet.
Mariners @ Blue Jays
Luis Castillo’s slow start narrative continued in his second start, as he allowed four runs for the second time this year. However, he did this with a more impressive seven strikeouts against the Guardians. Another pitcher whose velocity is down a mph, but that was the case last April too. You may not be worried about him long term because of this, but also may not expect him to return to his 20 K-BB% with estimators in the mid-threes until things tick up. Toronto is off to an awful start (76 wRC+ v RHP with a 7.5 HR/FB, but also just a 9.5 K-BB%).
Jose Berrios did see increased velocity in his first start, but dropped back down to last year’s average in his second (he only knows how to be volatile), in which he walked three Astros with just two strikeouts (5.7 SwStr%). With more than half his contact of the hard hit variety, he’s staring at a 6.79 xERA through two starts, while other estimators since the beginning of last year are about half a run north of his 3.57 ERA over this span. The Mariners have a 68 wRC+ and 32.9 K% against RHP (through Saturday).
Both defenses have been just south of average (well below expectactions in a small sample), while both bullpens project strongly at full strength, which Toronto is not at the moment.
DFS Notes: Three players in the Seattle projected lineup are below a 23.7 K% against RHP since last season and two of them are batting eighth and ninth. The ever volatile Berrios is far too cheap on DraftKings ($2.5K less than FanDuel). Conversely, there are only two batters in the Toronto projected lineup above a 21 K% against RHP since last year, which lowers Castillo’s stock at a moderately high price. Don’t really love bats from either side, despite the protected environment. Both teams are tied for the fifth lowest run total (4.0) on the board. Berrios is my current SP2
Mets @ Braves
Julio Teheran is starting for the Mets and I just can’t. His projections average just under five. All estimators last year exceeded his 4.40 ERA. The Braves have a 168 wRC+, 17.5 K% and 15.9 HR/FB v RHP this year. The Mets have played much more poorly on defense than expected thus far, though the bullpen does not project to be nearly as bad as last year with Diaz back.
Suddenly, it’s become much more important for the Atlanta pitching staff that Charlie Morton continue to stave off Father Time. The good news is that he appeared to be doing a great job of that in his first start, striking out six of 22 batters with a 12.1 SwStr%. The bad news is that it was against the White Sox, his ground ball rate was only 23.1% and his velocity was lower than any game average from last year. Morton has struck out 25.6%, but walked 11.5% of batters since last year. Contact neutral estimators are nearly a run above his 3.51 ERA over this span. The Mets have just a 57 wRC+ and 5.7 HR/FB against RHP so far and that number includes a couple of games in Cincinnati on Friday and Saturday. The Atlanta defense has been better than expected so far, while the bullpen projects as one of the best in the league.
DFS Notes: The Braves are tied atop the board at 5.91 implied runs. Of course you WANT to stack them against Teheran. D’arnaud and Arcia are the only two in the projected lineup below a 110 wRC+ v RHP since last season. Add Kelenic as the only other batter below a .200 ISO. But can you AFFORD Braves? Olson and Acuna are obvious top bats. On the other side, Charlie Morton is too expensive ($10K DK/FD). Nimmo (138 wRC+, .226 ISO v RHP since LY) and Alvarez (111, .251) are nice values. My initial build ended up with nobody from this game, due to budget constraints.
Update: Carlos Torres is known as one of the most hitter friendly umpires in the league.
Dodgers @ Twins
James Paxton struck out five of 23 Giants with an 11.3 SwStr% and 53.8 GB% (0 Barrels) in his first start. However, his velocity continued the downward spiral that begin mid-way through his 2023 season and continued this spring. He threw that fastball 70.1% of the time anyway and got some chases above the zone with a 60.9 F-Strike%, but also walked five. Paxton has excelled at getting first pitch strikes throughout his career (62.4%), but has not excelled at getting the called strike (16%) as often as he did in his first start (20.6%). It’s going to be hard to buy what he’s selling. The Twins have a small sample 124 wRC+ against southpaws, the Dodger defense has been slightly below average and the bullpen projects to be average.
Bailey Ober showed some increased velocity this pre-season that excited people and held it in his first start, more than a mph above last year. That is absolutely the only positive you can take from this outing (1.9 SwStr%, 25 GB%, 4 Barrels, 58.3 Hard%). Can’t immediately give up on a guy who still has a 3.89 ERA and 3.92 SIERA (19.8 K-BB%) since the start of last season after an outing like that. The Dodgers have a 132 wRC+ against RHP. The Minnesota defense has been average and the bullpen projects probably slightly better than the Dodgers with Duran out.
I have a lean towards the Twins as moderate dogs in this game, but find it hard to trust Ober immediately off that outing against a great offense. The other alternative is to look at the weather tomorrow and perhaps play some version of the total.
DFS Notes: This is the one game with any weather concern AND it’s cold, which might move us off bats. Obviously, from what’s been written above, we’re not trusting arms in this game, though the Twins do have the fourth lowest team total (3.99), while the Dodgers are a middling offense for a change tonight (4.51). Shohei (196 wRC+, .371 ISO v RHP since 2023) and Mookie (167, .257) are two of my top three bats tonight, but I had to choose just one (Shohei) with some middle infield values available (which I’ll detail later). Like the Braves, most Dodgers are great if affordable and may even be under-owned tonight. For the Twins, Ryan Jeffers (150, .278) is below $3K on FD.
Phillies @ Cardinals
Spencer Turnbull has thrown just 142.2 major league innings after his rookie year in 2019. He struck out seven of 19 Reds in his first start, despite appearing to be down a mph from last season, but there’s been some debate as to whether Statcast has mis-classified a new cutter, which would be his seventh offering. He kept 58.3% of his contact on the ground without a Barrel. Is this a game changer? He still has estimators above four and a half in 36 innings since the start of last season. The Cardinals have just a 77 wRC+ against RHP, but a 108 wRC+ over the L7 days. The Philadelphia defense has been below average as expected.
Last year, Miles Mikolas’s 4.78 ERA was a sad match for all of his non-FIP (4.27) estimators. With just a 15.9 K%, 38.8 GB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE, 2024 did not look too promising for him. His first two starts of the season have done nothing to change that line of thought. But he pitched well against the Padres. Sure, four Ks with a 1.1 SwStr%. Surprisingly, the Phillies have just a 77 wRC+ against RHP too so far (98 overall L7 days). The St Louis defense has been neutral so far, which is a major improvement from last year. Both bullpens project middle of the road.
DFS Notes: Not the worst weather, but a pitcher friendly park in the cooler months. Turnbull is a slightly interesting SP2 at $6.9K, while it’s tough to find value in Mikolas. Both teams sit in the middle of the board (4.25). I have interest in Brendan Donovan (130 wRC+ v RHP since LY) as a cheap leadoff bat and Willson Contreras (125, .202 ISO) if he plays. I’m finding Philly bats too expensive for the park, despite the favorable matchup, with better alternatives available, but that also means you’ll likely get lower ownership on guys like Schwarber and Harper than usual.
Astros @ Rangers
Framber Valdez certainly didn’t have it working, walking six of 23 Yankees with five Ks on Opening Day. He rectified that against the Blue Jays, striking out five without a walk over 7.2 shutout innings. He struck out a career high 24.8% of batters faced last season (not counting 2020), but issues with contact (91.5 mph EV, 45.6% hard hit rate) and 10 unearned runs kept his 3.45 ERA well below a 4.30 xERA. While a 54.1 GB% would be considered elite for much of the league, it was the lowest mark of his career (any season) by more than five points, though he has a 71.4% mark through two starts this year and hasn’t allowed a Barrel yet.
Andrew Heaney struck out seven of 20 Rays with a 16.7 SwStr% in his first start. He accomplished a 35.3 Whiff% on 57 fastballs (63.3%) that were down two mph from last season and more often than not thrown right down the middle. Hard to trust. Heaney still has estimators around four and a half since the start of last season.
The Rangers have a 37 point small sample wRC+ edge on the Astros against LHP so far. Both defenses have been solid. The Houston bullpen projects one-third of a run better than Texas.
DFS Notes: I don’t care what Heaney did in his first start, not against this offense. In fact, considering his reverse platoon, I have Alvarez (142 wRC+, .213 ISO v LHP since LY) and Tucker (152, .263) as top bats. Framber…maybe for $8K on DK? I’ll tell you I’m not attacking him. The Astros have the fourth highest implied run line (4.82) with the Rangers towards the middle of the board (4.18). Nobody from this game made my initial lineup.
Update: Obvious upgrade for the Rangers (now 5.24 implied runs) with Valdez scratch.
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
After a heavy workload last season, Zac Gallen’s velocity was down this spring and he carried a 1.5 mph drop into the season opener, but was still efficient enough to shut the Rockies down over five innings. Despite just three strikeouts (21 BF), he did have a 15.3 SwStr%. I’m wasn’t sure what to think then and I’m even less sure after he shut down the Yankees too, striking out six of 22 with even further reduced velocity and just a 4.2 SwStr%. His pitch placement has been pristine and is going to have to continue to be. This isn’t just me making stuff up. PitchingBot, which loved all his pitches last year, hates all his pitches this year. The Rockies have an 80 wRC+ against RHP this year and that may be an improvement on last season.
On the other hand, Kyle Freeland retained his spring velocity spike, but got smoked when he threw those fastballs down the middle against the Diamondbacks on Opening Day. He was smoked again at Wrigley in his second start, but his velocity was down two mph (though still slightly higher than last year). Freeland has a 14.17 xERA through two starts and PitchingBot actually likes his stuff more than Gallen’s. His fastballs and sliders have either been right down the pipe or uncompetitive. The Diamondbacks have a 154 wRC+ against LHP, but a lot of that damage was done against Freeland.
Arizona has had a much better defense than Colorado thus far and the bullpen projects nearly three-quarters of a run better.
DFS Notes: The thing to note about the Colorado offense is that they are so bad, even Coors only makes them an average offense. And that’s only in good weather! It’s cool here tonight, though the Diamondbacks tie the Braves for top run total on the board. The Rockies are closer to the middle of the board (maybe top third – 4.59). I have no Rockies in my initial build, despite still believing something is off with Gallen. All the Diamondbacks you can fit with the understanding that you won’t be alone at all in this endeavor. I have Walker (136 wRC+, .291 ISO v LHP since LY), Moreno (131, .157) and Suarez (130, .146) penciled in, the latter two with cheaper price tags to make up for the shocking lack of power. Every projected RHB for Arizona tonight is an above average hitter against LHP (via wRC+).
Rays @ Angels
While Zach Eflin struck out five with just one walk in each of his first two starts, he allowed five fewer runs (two fewer Barrels) in the latter against the Rangers, after falling apart in the sixth inning against the Blue Jays. Eflin now has a 3.61 ERA with estimators all below that since the start of last season. His 22.5 K-BB% is eighth among 47 qualified pitchers over this span. The Angels have just a 77 wRC+ (25.6 K%) through Sunday (numbers for these last three games now updated), but a 115 wRC+ and 8.1 K-BB% over the L7 days.
Tyler Anderson shut down the Marlins with a 13.3 SwStr% and no Barrels in his first start, accomplishing something virtually everybody except you and I have so far in the 2024 season. He still owns a 5.17 ERA that matches his 5.19 SIERA (8.8 K-BB%) since the start of last season. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .329 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The Rays have a small sample 125 wRC+, but 26.9 K% and 4.3 HR/FB against LHP this season.
Both defenses have been about average, which is a surprise for the home team, but while the Rays project a top three bullpen, the Angels project bottom five.
DFS Notes: The Rays (4.84) are my cheaper alternative to Arizona bats tonight. Each of the first seven in the projected order exceed a 115 wRC+ v LHP since last year. Yandy Diaz (194 wRC+, .292 ISO v LHP since LY) is a fine alternative to Walker, while I have Rosario (116, .162) and Mead (150, .132) locked in as top middle infield values, along with Harold Ramirez (171, .155 ISO) in the OF. Rays and D’Backs mesh quite nicely to form a quality lineup. Eflin is my SP1, but that could be debatable.
Cubs @ Padres
Similar to Anders, Javier Assad also did something everyone else has done this season, dominate the Rockies in his first start. He struck out five of 22 batters over six shutout innings, despite a 5.6 SwStr%. Assad has a slightly below average 12.1 K-BB% with estimators a bit below four and a half since the start of last season with Statcast driving up his actual wOBA surrendered to LHBs by over 50 points. The Padres have a 105 wRC+ vs RHP, which is better than we’d expect because they haven’t struck out (17.5%). The bats have cooled down overall in the last seven days (73 wRC+).
The only pitcher on the board to already have three starts under his belt, Yu Darvish’s 2.60 ERA is below estimators with a 17.2 K-BB% very similar to last season, but those estimators are below four so far this year with just two Barrels allowed and a 1.3 point increase in ground ball rate. Yu remains as unpredictable as ever, throwing five different pitches between 12% and 15% of the time. The Cubs are off to a nice start with a 113 wRC+ (5.0 K-BB%) vs RHP and 131 wRC+ (6.4 K-BB%) over the last seven days.
Both teams have disappointed defensively so far with the Cubs among the worst in the league, though the Chicago bullpen projects ahead of San Diego.
DFS Notes: Pitcher friendly park and weather (though not extremely so). The low strikeout rate for San Diego makes Assad a tough roster, especially as his price has increased coming off the Rockies. With neither team above four implied runs in this game, this is not really a game of much interest, aside from limited intrigue on Darvish on a lackluster pitching board.
Update: Also a very hitter friendly umpire, James Hoye.
Nationals @ Giants
Trevor Williams kept half his contact on the ground, striking out five of 21 Pirates in his first start, but was fortunate to navigate a 57.1% hard hit rate. Batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, while estimators remain above five. The Giants have really struggled out of the gate (81 wRC+ v RHP, 61 L7 days).
Everyone understands that Blake Snell hit his 90th percentile projections last season. That’s why he signed so late into the pre-season, despite winning a Cy Young. That does not at all mean he’s a bad pitcher, but no projection system has him within ever a run of his 2.25 ERA from 2023. Mid-three estimators will do just fine though. The Nationals have a small sample 47 wRC+ v LHP (but it was 100 last year and just a 19.4 K% this year).
Both defenses have been about average, which is a massive uptick for the Nats and downtick for the Giants. The home team pen projects nearly half a run better.
DFS Notes: Another pitcher’s park, especially in the cooler months of the season, the Giants still have a respectable 4.48 run total because of those numbers above on Williams. I like LaMonte Wade (125 wRC+, .165 ISO v RHP since LY) as a nice value play here. With Snell likely over-priced and probably on a lower pitch count than usual against a contact prone team (even if it isn’t often good contact), I have no interest on the other side of this matchup.
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