The earthquake knocked out the heat. Then it knocked out the internet. Both were repaired in good time, but it does feel like something has happened where I'm rushing these things through midnight every night this week. Potentially DFS tomorrow if there's time.
If you find the information on this site helpful, donations are welcome (mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal), so that I can continue doing this and make the site more pleasant to look at.
Athletics @ Tigers
Paul Blackburn struck out a career high 22.4% of batters last year (previous high 19.1% in 2022) with a 4.43 ERA that matched most estimators (FIP was a bit lower – 10 HR/FB). He managed contact well (5.8% Barrels/BBE, 33.2 Hard%), but a 9.3 BB% kept the estimators elevated a bit. He struck out just three of 25 Guardians, but one walk, no Barrels and a 28.6 Hard% in his first start. The Tigers had an 87 wRC+ vs RHP last year. They’re probably better than that, but had just a 91 wRC+ over the last seven days coming into Friday. It’s not an impossible matchup, but Blackburn won’t likely get much defensive help and has a mediocre bullpen behind him.
Kenta Maeda carried reduced velocity from this spring into his first start. He doesn’t seem like a pitcher that might be a major issue for if the splitter is working, but it’s a two mph drop to 88.9 mph and he was smoked by the White Sox (three Home Runs and Barrels plus a 57.1 Hard%). Some estimators were nearly a half run better than his 4.23 ERA last year, but I’m a bit concerned. The A’s had an 89 wRC+ on the road and against RHP last year, as well as over the last week coming into Friday. The Tigers hold a substantial defensive and bullpen advantage.
I just don’t see much of a difference between these two pitchers at this point and the Detroit offenses isn’t that much better than Oakland’s to make this line this high (+150). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Guardians @ Twins
I’m happy Carlos Carrasco was able to win a starting job this year because last year, he looked every bit of his sky high estimators, the lowest being a 4.93 xFIP. Batters from both sides of the plate exceeded .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him. His first start in Oakland wasn’t disastrous (13.9 SwStr%, 0 Barrels, 25 Hard%). His fastball was down two mph from last year, when it was terrible though, and the Twins hunt fastballs and crush them.
Joe Ryan is pitching with increased velocity (+1.5 mph). If it helps him drop last year’s 14.9 HR/FB, his 3.51 xERA was a full run lower than his 4.51 ERA last year with most other estimators following (24.3 K-BB%). People may call it a breakout, but it may be more of a tweak. The Guardians don’t strike out, but had just a 96 wRC+ against RHP last year.
The Twins Guardians have a large defensive edge, but give the bullpen battle slightly to the Twins with Duran out.
Marlins @ Cardinals
Trevor Rogers is working his way back from injury, pitching just 18 major league innings last year and being pretty terrible the year before. Judging by the results of his first game (4 BB & ER), he’s still working. However, he ran a 13.4 SwStr% without a Barrel and only three hard hit balls.
Steven Matz’s 3.86 ERA last year was commiserate with his estimators. He can be hit or miss in any given outing. He competently held the Dodgers to two runs with a 12.3 SwStr% with one Barrel in his first start, despite a 50% hard hit rate.
The Cardinals have the offensive…wait a minute, the Marlins were actually six points of wRC+ better than the Cardinals against LHP last year. Both offense are below a 90 wRC+ this year overall. Both defenses stink. Both bullpens are average.
Dodgers @ Cubs
Yoshinobu Yamamoto was fine last time out. He’s struck out seven of 26 major league batters with just a single walk (and HBP), but it still doesn’t seem like the pitcher that was advertised yet (52.9 Hard%). The fastball seems a bit plain. He may still be struggling to adjust to the MLB ball. Projection systems have him a little better than a quarter run less than four. The Cubs are pesky (110 wRC+ Hm, 102 v RHP last year, 130 wRC+ this L7 days).
Over 34.2 innings last year, Jordan Wicks had estimators slightly above his 4.41 ERA on average. He managed contact well (6.3% Barrels/BBE), but struck out only 16.3% of batters. His first outing of the year in Texas featured three walks and five runs in just four innings, allowing two Barrels, but with his velocity up a bit and a 20 SwStr%. Could be interesting, but not against the Dodgers (114 wRC+ Rd & v RHP LY, 133 L7 days).
Defensive advantage to the Cubs. Both pens project middle of the league.
I don’t have a ton of confidence in my evaluation of Yamamoto yet, but this line appears to be based on his contract rather than performance up to this point plus projections. Considering Chicago’s defensive edge and bullpens being even, +160 is too much at Wrigley. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Orioles @ Pirates
I’m not sure we’ve seen the fully healthy, unleashed Tyler Wells yet, but his 3.64 ERA was below estimators ranging from a 4.01 xERA to a 4.98 FIP last year, despite 11.7% Barrels/BBE. He had a .200 BABIP and 82.6 LOB%, but 14.6 HR/FB. All serious regression candidates, but we otherwise like the 17.2 K-BB%. Most importantly in his first start, he struck out seven of 23 Angels with a 17.1 SwStr%, though with two Barrels and a 50% hard contact rate. The Pirates might be this year’s Orioles (okay, maybe not that good) with a 119 wRC+ over the last seven days.
Bailey Falter is a swing man with every estimator above four and a half last year. He doesn’t walk many, but that’s about it. He got bombed by the Marlins in his first start and the Orioles had a 112 wRC+ against LHP last year.
Slight defensive and bullpen edges to the Pirates.
Phillies @ Nationals
All of Ranger Saurez’s estimators were within one-third of a run of his 4.18 ERA with a 3.90 FIP the only one below four. He really struggled with RHBs (.338 wOBA, .337 xwOBA), while the Nationals had a 100 wRC+ against LHP last year (though they did pick up a couple of LHBs this year). Suarez was extremely impressive against the Braves, striking out seven, despite being down nearly two mph on a sinker he threw 51% of the time and running just a league average 10.8 SwStr%. Seems a bit fluky, but seven of 10 batted balls were on the ground without a Barrel.
Jake Irvin had a 4.61 ERA, but not a single estimator below five last year. Some more…an 8.5 K-BB%, 90 Z-Contact% and 10.3% Barrels/BBE. His velocity seems to be up a mile per hour and he didn’t allow a Barrel in Cincinnati, but 10 of his 15 batted balls reached a 95 mph EV, while he generated a 6.3 SwStr%. This performance was liked by xFIP (3.15) for some reason. The Phillies had a 104 wRC+ against RHP last year.
The defenses are equally bad, while the Philly pen projects one-third run better.
After thrashing Irvin, this is going to sound silly, but I’m on the Nats here (+146) because I’m not buying in on Suarez either and the home team is nearly as good against LHP as the Phillies are against RHP. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Mets @ Reds
It can’t get much worse than Luis Severino’s 6.65 ERA last season. His best estimator was a 4.78 SIERA, batters from either side smashed him above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA, while he struck out just 18.9% of batters, allowing 10.4% Barrels/BBE. There was a bit of optimism this spring, striking out 12 of 53 batters with one walk and an 11.1 SwStr%. He didn’t walk anyone and struck out six Brewers in his first start, but with just a 5.7 SwStr% and two Barrels. The estimators look far better than the ERA, but it wasn’t that encouraging. Park downgrade against a marginal offense (97 wRC+ v RHP LY, 98 wRC+ L7 days).
Nick Martinez gets another chance to start. His 3.43 ERA was below estimators ranging from a 3.68 DRA to a 4.07 xERA last season, but a lot of that work was out of the pen. The 53.8 GB% and 29.9 Hard% were impressive, but is the latter repeatable? The Mets had a 103 wRC+ against RHP last year, but 58 wRC+ L7 days.
The Mets should have large defensive and bullpen edges, though Edwin Diaz has pitched both Friday and Saturday.
Astros @ Rangers
I’d hate to be as wrong about J.P. France as I was Ronel Blanco this week (but he legitimately pitched differently), but he had a 3.83 ERA last year, while his best estimator was a 4.66 FIP. Six of his 64 runs were unearned, as he struck out just 17.1% of batters. He came at batters mainly with a four seamer (that was down a mph) and cutter in his first start, just last year and struck out five of 24 Yankees with a 12.8 SwStr%. Only 16.7% of his contact was on the ground, but without a Barrel and only a 27.8 Hard%. That’s not enough to change opinions and this is an extremely tough spot (Rangers 126 wRC+ Hm & 114 v RHP LY, 131 L7 days).
Jon Gray has had his moments, but still hasn’t really put it together outside Coors either. Estimators fit in a tight 4.36 (xFIP) to 4.48 (SIERA/FIP), just a bit above his 4.12 ERA. His 13.5 K-BB% was pedestrian. Guess who else was a mph down on his fastball and got spanked by the Cubs (4.4 SwStr%, 3 Barrels, 62.5 Hard%). We want no part of him against the Astros (119/107/155).
Rangers have the better defensive team. The Houston bullpen projects a quarter run better.
Blue Jays @ Yankees
Kevin Gausman looked none the worst for missing the last couple of weeks of Spring Training, striking out six of 16 Rays in his first start. You know you’ll get a lot of strikeouts with Gausman (31.1%), sometimes Barrels (9.9%), but he also has a career .315 BABIP against, which means he’ll generally run an ERA above his estimators, but not last year. Last year, it sat between his 2.97 FIP and 3.82 xERA at 3.16. The Yankees have just a 100 wRC+ over the last week, but should be better than last year’s 89 wRC+ against RHIP.
Clark Schmidt’s estimators were all below his 4.64 ERA, but none below four. Yet, PitchingBot absolutely loved all of his pitches. If you look at their grades, you’d think you looking at a Cy Young contender. A 13.3 SwStr% against the Astros in his first start and maybe he’ll show us something more than a 21.5 K% (14.9 K-BB%) this year. The Blue Jays had a 106 wRC+ against RHP and a lineup that doesn’t strike out, but have just a 58 wRC+ over the last seven days.
Large defensive edge to the Blue Jays, but the Yankees might have a bullpen edge with a couple of Toronto relievers down.
White Sox @ Royals
Chris Flexen should no longer be a major league starting pitcher. But he pitches for the White Sox. Point taken. RHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA since last year. All estimators are above five. The Braves shelled him in his first start (3.1 SwStr%). The Royals have a 123 wRC+ L7 days.
Michael Wacha has done a nice job rebuilding his career, even if his 3.22 ERA was well below estimators for the second year in a row. They averaged about a run higher with only a 3.89 FIP below four. Still, league average is fine. For the Royals it’s top of the rotation behind Ragans. Wacha was mostly fine in his first start, though two Barrels to go with his 12.5 SwStr% in Baltimore. The White Sox had an 81 wRC+ against RHP last year and don’t project to be much better.
Small defensive and bullpen edges to the Royals too, though neither is above average in either area.
Mariners @ Brewers
Bryce Miller has a great fastball, but need to command it better (not control 4.8 BB%) and find a way to get LHBs out (.387 wOBA, .391 xwOBA since LY). A 4.32 ERA matched his 4.31 xFIP in his rookie season, but he also ran up a 4.80 xERA, allowing 10.9% Barrels/BBE. That’s what I mean about command over control. Two more home runs on four Barrels and a 64.3% hard hit rate against the Red Sox, despite six strikeouts (17.6 SwStr%). Even Spencer Strider (who I see is set for an elbow MRI as I write this) developed a third pitch this year. The matchup isn’t terrible (Brewers 90 wRC+ v RHP LY).
DL Hall pitched his 19 innings out of the Baltimore pen last year and looked none to polished in his first start this year against the Mets. His fastball dropped to 92 mph in a starting role, but there was also nothing special about it. He garnered just a 5.5 SwStr% with two Barrels and a 50% hard contact rate. The Mariners had a 106 wRC+ against LHP, but strike out a ton. Over the last seven days, they have a 58 wRC+ and 31.1 K%, so perhaps he’ll look better here.
The Mariners have the better of two good defenses and bullpens with Williams and Megill out for Milwaukee.
Diamondbacks @ Braves
Your Fried Pfaadt matchup. I know, neither one pronounces their name like bacon a boy can dream. Brandon Pfaadt was nothing special in the regular season with his lowest estimator a 4.28 SIERA before breaking out in the post-season. Estimators didn’t like the 32.3 GB% and 11.7% Barrels/BBE, but the 16.1 K-BB% was fine and could even improve. Not like you can take much meaning from not allowing a single Barrel and only three hard hit balls in striking out six of 21 Rockies (8.0 SwStr%) though. This matchup is entirely on the opposite end of the spectrum (Braves 127/123/137).
Max Fried lasted seven batters in his first start. He always seems to struggle in that first one. Fluke? Yeah, probably. His four-seamer was even up three mph. Not that I’m saying he would have held it there the entire game, but it’s nice to see and know that this has happened before. All estimators were above his 2.55 ERA in an injury shortened 2023, but none reached three and a half. The Diamondbacks had just a 92 wRC+ against LHP last year, but appear better equipped for those confrontations this year.
Massive defensive edge to the defending NL champs. About a quarter run bullpen projection edge to the Braves. In considering the D’Backs here again (+135), I’m not shying away because of last night’s disaster (blew a three run lead with the tying run scoring on a popup), but because I believe Fried’s first start was so much of a fluke that it’s throwing off some numbers.
Rays @ Rockies
Okay, I’m curious to see what the Rays do with Tyler Alexander who hasn’t been a regular starter in a couple of years. His first outing was in bulk relief against Toronto and although he allowed only five hard hit balls, four of them were Barrels with just a 4.8 SwStr%. It is the Rockies though (80/74/63).
Ryan Feltner’s 6.0 K-BB% last year won’t play anywhere. I don’t even care about the contact management (4.5% Barrels/BBE, 29.3 Hard%) because that’s less sustainable. All estimators were below his 5.82 ERA, but only the contact inclusive ones were below five. He did have a large split, while the Rays don’t really have any LHBs this year (RHBs .320 wOBA, .286 xwOBA).
A potentially large defensive edge for the Rockies (WHAT??) and a massive bullpen one for the Rays. I have a small lean towards the Rays here (-136), but just don’t have enough confidence I understand what they’re doing with Alexander yet.
Padres @ Giants
Michael King dominated with a 25.5 K-BB% once permanently moved into the rotation for eight starts at the end of last season. His two outings this year have been far less impressive, striking out 11 of 38, but with a 7.4 SwStr%, 10 walks, three Barrels and 52.9 Hard%. The Giants are probably a perfectly average offense against RHP, but what is Michael King?
Keaton Winn allowed three runs over five innings in his first start, but since he also struck out six of 20 with a 13.5 SwStr% against the Dodgers with just one walk and Barrel, I’m going to consider it a success. Winn had estimators well below his 4.68 ERA in a small sample last year with only his contact inclusive ones above four (10.6% Barrels/BBE, 48 Hard%, but 58 GB%). The Padres have a 120 wRC+ over the last seven days and don’t strike out a lot, but one wouldn’t project them to exceed last year’s 101 wRC+ against RHP without Soto.
Two strong defenses. The Padres might be better. The Giants project a better pen by a quarter run.
Red Sox @ Angels
Garrett Whitlock started in the rotation, but moved to the pen amid injury and inconsistency. Despite a 5.15 ERA, his contact neutral estimators were below four, others below five (10.2% Barrels/BBE, 16.5 HR/FB). A 19.4 K-BB% is otherwise very impressive. The Angels have a 127 wRC+ over the last week. You would think their 100 wRC+ against RHP last year would suffer without the AL MVP, but they also missed Trout for a good chunk of the year.
While all estimators were below Reid Detmers’ 4.48 ERA, none were below four. He struck out 26.1% of batters with just 6.2% Barrels/BBE, but also walked 9.3%, while only his curveball graded out as a strong pitch. Detmers struck out seven of 21 Orioles (17.7 SwStr%) with a 30% hard hit rate, but three more walks too. The Red Sox had a 96 wRC+ against LHP last year and Trevor Story is rolling on the ground in pain as I write this.
Two bad defenses (Red Sox worse) and bullpens (Angels worse)
Add comment
Comments