New Your Mets 2024 Season:
6 games
3 rain outs
2 suspensions
1 win - Petey Smash!
We're on the board!!
#LFGM
Thirteen on Friday. Friday the 13? Let's go.
DFS Notes to be added in the afternoon.
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Blue Jays @ Yankees
The HR prone Yusei Kikuchi only gave up one in his first start, but also walked three of the 22 Rays he faced (4 Ks, 11.1 SwStr%) and couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. Last year, his 3.86 ERA matched his SIERA. His contact inclusive estimators were a bit higher (15.3 HR/FB, 9% Barrels/BBE). He had a bit of a split last year (RHBs .330 wOBA, .328 xwOBA). The Yankees regularly start three RHBs with a .230+ ISO vs LHP since last year (Torres, Judge, Volpe).
While Marcus Stroman shut out the Astros over six innings, he performed basically as expected, striking out four of 25 batters with a 52.9 GB%. Last year’s estimators tracked well with a 3.95 ERA (20.7 K%, 57.1 GB%). Stroman could suffer from an inferior all around defense to Chicago’s (Toronto has a certain edge there) and faces a tough assignment in his former team (106 wRC+ v RHP last year). Cavan Biggio is the only player in the Toronto projected lineup against RHP who exceeds Stroman’s 20.7% strikeout last year against RHP since last season.
A healthy Toronto bullpen was projected well ahead of the Yankees to start the season, but injuries (Toronto) and strong performance (New York) has closed that gap. I see the Blue Jays as slightly smaller dogs than they currently are (+136), but not enough to be actionable.
Athletics @ Tigers
J.P. Sears threw a team high 172.1 innings last year with a respectable 14.7 K-BB%, but also a 29.1 GB% with 11.1% Barrels/BBE. Thus, his 4.54 ERA was actually below all estimators. The Guardians did not homer against him and connected on just a single Barrel, but he still generated just two ground balls and couldn’t make through the fourth. The Tigers were in their better split against LHP last year (95 wRC+), though several of their young, talented bats hit from the left-hand side and could have a seat Friday, though LHBs were slightly better than RHBs against Sears last year (.407 wOBA, .336 xwOBA), which doesn’t make too much sense as his changeup was thrown just 15% of the time against four-seam fastballs and sliders.
Tarik Skubal picked up right where he left off, striking out six of 21 White Sox (20.5 SwStr%) after a season in which none of his estimators reached three. He was cautiously pulled after 83 pitches. And his fastball was up a mile per hour, though PitchingList noted that he didn’t command his pitches very well. He may not need to against the A’s (77 wRC+ 2024, 89 wRC+ Rd & v LHP last year).
The Tigers should have a defensive and bullpen advantages as well, though Oakland doesn’t have the worst bullpen in the league and the Tigers heavily used their pen in a double-header on Thursday. I make the A's a slightly smaller dog than they actually are, at least for the full game, due to the bullpen situation, but again, not enough to be actionable here either.
Dodgers @ Cubs
The Dodgers expect big things from the flame throwing Bobby Miller, but he only struck out 23.6% of batters last year and just nine of 56 this spring. A 6.3 BB% and just 6.0% Barrels/BBE supported a solid overall profile. His 3.76 ERA was in line with estimators, none of which reached four. He’s already a pretty solid pitcher without a strikeout spike. PitchingBot likes every one of his pitchers. Miller struck out 11 of 21 Cardinals, but with just nine swings and misses. The Cubs (119 wRC+ 2024, 102 v RHP LY) represent another difficult test (though likely in pitcher friendly conditions). Miller doesn’t have much of a split and the Cubs generally balance their lineup.
The Rangers smashed Kyle Hendricks for two HRs on three Barrels (17.6%) with the same number of walks and strikeouts. Hendricks’ 3.74 ERA matches his 3.81 FIP (8.5 HR/FB), but all other estimators, even his xERA (4.16, 6.2% Barrels/BBE, 85.2 mph EV) were above four. With the changeup being his best pitch (41.1%, 1.4 RV/100), RHBs were better against Hendricks (.337 wOBA, .324 xwOBA). Expect the Dodgers (135 wRC+ 2024, 117 wRC+ v RHP LY) to take advantage of this.
The Cubs have a defensive edge, while both pens project near the middle of the league. As such, I believe the Cubs are a bit undervalued at home in this spot, even giving the Dodgers a significant starting pitching edge and would consider playing the Cubs at anything above +150. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network)
Rays @ Rockies
Zack Littell's 4.10 ERA matches his SIERA too, as well as almost all of his other estimators, though that work was split between the pen and rotation. From his first start until his last, his ERA (3.42) and FIP (3.69) actually improved. Littell walked just five of 312 batters in that span, which allows him to succeed with an average contact profile and strikeout rate just below 20%. Littell walked two of 22 Blue Jays in his first start, but also struck out six (12 SwStr%) with just two hard hit balls (14.3%). The Tampa Bay defense is not as good as it's reputation in recent years, but the bullpen is still expected to be one of the best in the league. The Rockies, who have jumped out to a 57 wRC+ this season had just an 80 wRC+ at home and against RHP last year.
Batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Austin Gomber since last year. That number was .340 before nine of the 22 batters he faced reached in his first start of the season, three of them via Barrels. The Rays had a 120 wRC+ against LHP last season and the Rockies have, potentially, the worst bullpen in the majors, but also, likely, a much improved defense.
Orioles @ Pirates
Two of the most dynamic young flamethrowers in the game face off in this matchup, both only with major questions about their command. While Grayson Rodriguez struggled in his first trip in the majors, when he returned after the All-Star break, his 2.58 ERA was just below a 2.76 FIP with a 17.1 K-BB% and a likely unsustainable 3.8% Barrels/BBE. None the less, Pitching Bot loved nearly all of his pitches. Still not yet a finished product, Gray- Rod (?) has all the talent in the world, but needs to figure out how to get LHBs out (.351 wOBA & .348 xwOBA). He struck out nine of 22 Angels in his first start. The Pirates have jumped out to a 114 wRC+ (thru Wednesday) and they might be for real. Certainly expect them to improve on their 91 wRC+ against RHP last year.
Jared Jones struck out no fewer than 26.3% at any minor league stop. He struck out 15 of 62 batters this spring with eight walks (4.52 xFIP), but didn't allow a single earned run (three unearned) over 16.1 innings. That was enough for the Pirates to slot him into the rotation. Projection systems have him with an ERA/FIP around four and a half, even after striking out 10 of 22 Marlins with just two walks. The Orioles (103 wRC+ v RHP LY) will be a tougher test.
Both of these young guns exceeded a 16 SwStr% in their first start. Both projected lineups are above average defensively, while the Pirates may have the slightly better bullpen. I have the Pirates as a very small dog in this game and they’re just slightly above that.
Padres @ Giants
This is a rematch from last weekend. Dylan Cease took a step backward last year. His 4.58 ERA was about half a run above his average estimators, but walk issues returned (10.1%). While his slider may have been the best pitch in the game in 2022, it was worth a mere (0.8 RV/100) and graded as an average pitch by PitchingBot last year. Cease still struck out 27.3% of batters and gets a park upgrade this year. He struck out six of 19 Giants in his first start before faltering in the fifth. The Giants (94 wRC+ v RHP) struck out quite a bit last year (24.1% against RHP) and may do so again.
Jordan Hicks struck out an astound 41.2% of the 68 batters he faced this spring. Anything close to that would blow projections for an ERA around four out of the water. Hicks has a career 24.5 K% and 11.7 BB% as a reliever and those numbers generally don't improve when transitioning to a starting role. His game is ground balls (58.3% last year) and the Giants should have the defense to help him succeed in that manner. The Padres had a 101 wRC+ against RHP with Juan Soto last year. Unless Tatis makes a big rebound, they're unlikely to improve on that. Hicks punched out six of 20 Giants with just a single walk, half his contact on the ground and only one Barrel.
Both pitchers have strong defenses behind them with the San Diego bullpen projecting around a quarter run worse than the Giants.
Update: Projecting starting pitcher, offenses and bullpens all near average, we have a pitcher friendly park with pitcher friendly weather and two great defenses. I think we get a low scoring game here (7.5u -104).
Mets @ Reds
Jose Quintana’s 3.52 FIP matched his 3.57 ERA (6.0). Even allowing just 5.1% Barrels/BBE, his xERA was 4.48, his SIERA and DRA even higher. Just a 3.5 SwStr% against the Brewers and 8.9% last year, don’t expect Quintana to improve on last year’s 18.8 K% at this point in his career. Last year’s HR rate is unsustainable and if he isn’t able to manage contact effectively again this year, his presence on a major league mound won’t be very sustainable either. It’s a tough matchup (Reds 99 wRC+ v LHP, 15.2 HR/FB at home) in a tough park.
You want strikeouts? Hunter Greene punched out 30.5% of the batters he faced last year. You want more? Good luck. Greene walked 9.6% of batters last year and allowed 9.0% Barrels/BBE. That said, all estimators were more than a half run below his 4.82 ERA last year and only his FIP (4.25) even reached four. Expect some improvement on the surface results and run prevention, but four more walks to go with the seven Nationals he struck out in his first start.
The Mets should have substantial defensive and bullpen edges, though they used a lot of bullpen in Friday’s double header. The Under on Quintana’s K prop looked enticing (5.5 +105), but the Mets could be incentivized to rest the bullpen in this one.
DRS Notes: We don’t love the cooler temperatures here, but it’s Cincinnati and the wind is blowing out. Green is a volatile, but usable arm in the $8K range due to the strikeouts. Projected Mets lineup strikes out around average, but McNeil and Bader are the only two below 20% against RHP since last year. The Reds are tied for third in implied run total (4.62), while the Mets are middle of the board (4.38). I’m not saying not to stack the Reds, but five in the projected lineup are below an 80 wRC+ v LHP since last year and the wily veteran Quintana could make them uncomfortable and limit hard contact. I might consider leaning underweight, while Green does have power and control issues. Alonso, Alvarez, Nimmo all > .200 ISO v RHP since 2023. Frankie Alvarez is my value catcher tonight and Nimmo a great OF value.
Update: Scratch Nimmo. Mendoza thought it a good idea to sit him against a guy who walks everyone.
Phillies @ Nationals
Once again, Aaron Nola's ERA (4.46) finished well above estimators (all non-FIP estimators below four). Was it the park? His 15.6 HR/FB (4.03 FIP) was actually lower at home (14.3). Was it the terrible defense? Nola had a 19.8 K-BB% and just a .281 BABIP. The Braves struck out just three times in 24 Plate Appearances against Nola in his first start and they homered twice despite not a single Barrel. More of the same. The Washington offense is off to a nice start (106 wRC+ through Wed.), but had just an 89 mark against RHP last year.
Patrick Corbin had a single estimator (4.76 xFIP) below five last year and RHBs (of which he’s projected to face nine) hammered out a .362 wOBA and .378 xwOBA against him. Corbin struck out just 15.7% of batters in 2023 and the projected lineup for the Nationals combines for -32 OAA defensively last year. Corbin added a cutter, which he threw 19 times in his first start in Cincinnati. It was located down and pretty good (26.7 Whiff%), but the Reds still took him deep twice, as he struck out only two and lasted 18 batters. The Phillies smacked LHP for a 108 wRC+ last year.
The Philadelphia defense is just as bad as Washington’s, but they’re projected to have about a one-third run bullpen edge via Fangraphs. Even Nola’s best estimators aren’t much below four. I’d almost lean Nationals here if it went much above +150.
DFS Notes: Temperatures around 50 temper a generally hitter friendly to near neutral environment. While Corbin is the obvious DFS whipping boy (Phillies 4.6 runs = 5th), I’m doing a double take on his $5.5K price on DK. Maybe…?? If we get a pitcher friendly umpire to pair with the weather. The other side of the equation is more complicated. We’re not using any Nats and getting out of Philly helps Nola, but he’s expensive and there are only three guys with K-rates above 21% v RHP since last season in this projected lineup. Although, Gallo, of course. My primary lineup has just Bohm, due to cost, but if affordable, the top 5 in the expected order are all top bats.
Update: Nationals up to +156. Becoming gun shy with a rough start. Just can't pull the trigger on Corbin.
Diamondbacks @ Braves
The Road Rockies smacked Tommy Henry for five runs. The Braves (137 wRC+ 2024, 131 wRC+ v LHP) might do unmentionable things to him. On the bright side he had a 61.5 GB% against Colorado against just a 36.2% mark last year. Henry had just a 7.2 K-BB% last year, but his 4.30 xERA (32.4 Hard%) wasn’t much above his 4.15 ERA. All other estimators were higher.
Spencer Strider struck out eight of 20 Phillies with a 20 SwStr% in his first start, but one of his 10 batted balls, his only Barrel, left the park. Strider had contact issues last season, but his 3.86 ERA was more a product of .316 BABIP and 70.3 LOB%. His xERA (3.02) was still far below his ERA. The D’Backs have a 124 wRC+ to start the year, but were at just 99 v RHP last year. They have a few LHBs who could cause some trouble against Strider (.294 wOBA, .292 xwOBA v RHBs LY).
Arizona has a significant defensive edge here, but the Braves get that back with the currently best projected bullpen by Fangraphs (3.97 FIP).
DFS Notes: Rough hitting weather for Atlanta, but not disastrous. Strider is always a top arm, but is still vulnerable to some hard contact. Not a lot of Ks in the Arizona lineup. Only three projected above 20% v RHP since 2023. Do we want Braves’ bats? Of course we do! They’re 5.8 implied run line is three-quarters of a run above any other team. Can we afford Atlanta bats? Maybe not. None are in my primary build and I don’t necessarily mind going underweight considering the cost and weather.
Update: Everybody has a price and this one (ARI +265) has gotten out of control. The Diamondbacks are not some inept team. It's an above average offense with a massive defensive edge. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network)
White Sox @ Royals
They tell me Erick Fedde might be good now. He struck out seven of the 20 Tigers he faced in his return from the KBO, where he held a 24.6 K-BB% over 180 innings last year. Projection systems still remember him as a guy with estimators hovering close to five. The Royals (102 wRC+ this year) should be better than their 86 wRC+ v RHP last year.
Brady Singer sunk and slid his way to 10 Ks (27 BF) with an 18.2 SwStr% against the Twins. Seriously, that’s all he throws, sinker/sldier more than 90% of the time last year, though Statcast says he mixed in a few more four-seamers here. The Twins strike out a ton though. All of Singer’s estimators were well below his 5.52 ERA last season, only a 4.90 xERA (48.6 Hard%) less than a run so. He only struck out 19% with a 49.5 GB%. The White Sox had just an 81 wRC+ against RHP last year and have started off with a team 65 wRC+ through Wednesday.
Neither defense or bullpen is very good, but the White Sox are worse in both categories.
DFS Notes: Another cool weather spot with wind blowing in. Do we trust Erick Fedde? Or Brady Singer? Ewwww…but I’m not totally against it in GPPs. In fact, I’m warming up to the idea of Singer, as I’m writing. There are better pitchers in his price range, but none are facing the White Sox, a matchup that’s actually more favorable for run prevention than strikeouts. I don’t know what to do about the KC lineup. They’re 4.62 run total is near the top of the board. If people are still considering the Fedde of old, they may be over-valued. I think I’d consider an under-weight position. Gavin Sheets has gotten off to a hot start (249 wRC+) and is fairly cheap.
Astros @ Rangers
Hunter Brown declined in just about every way you can imagine in the second half of last season. While he finished with a 5.09 ERA, estimators were a run better. The 21 HR/FB should regress substantially, but he also allowed 10.9% Barrels/BBE, despite keeping 52.4% of his contact on the ground. While he struck out five of the 18 Yankees he faced, he did so with just a 6.8 SwStr%, but he located well and got ground balls (54.5%), which was the same as his hard hit rate, but no Barrels.
Cody Bradford served as a swing man last year and will fill that role this year as well while the top Texas pitchers are injured. His 5.30 ERA (67.2 LOB%) was above all estimators, which sat in the low to mid-fours. The peripherals were fine (21.8 K%, 5.1 BB%). The contact profile was not (14.1 HR/FB, 11.8% Barrels/BBE, 32.1 GB%). He struck out six of 18 Cubs (11.8 SwStr%) with only three hard hit balls and one Barrel.
Both offenses smash (Rangers 114 wRC+ v RHP, Astros 122 v LHP LY) and have started hot (Rangers 129 wRC+, Astros 153). The Rangers have the better defense, but the Astros make that up with a bullpen projection one-quarter run better.
Going by last year’s stats and projections, Over 8.5 is interesting in a protected environment, though Brown has real talent and Bradford looked good in his first start, so I’ll probably err on the side of caution.
DFS Notes: A protected, even neutral environment goes a long way on this slate. The Astros (5.06) have the second highest run total, while the Rangers (4.44) are middle of the board. Both pitchers might be slightly interesting at their current price, aside from the matchup. RHBs have a .331 wOBA, .324 xwOBA against Bradford since last year. I’ve gone bottom of the order cheap Astros in my primary lineup. Altuve is a top bat and 2B value too. With batters from either side of the plate at .310+ (wOBA, xwOBA) against Brown since last year, the Semien, Seager, Carter combo are some of the top bats on the board tonight. Carter is an especially strong value.
Update: Open roof, big offensive boost.
Mariners @ Brewers
A 3.85 FIP was the estimator furthest removed from Logan Gilbert's 3.73 ERA. With a 19.9 K-BB%, this is a quality pitcher with the potential to be even better. He struck out eight of 26 Red Sox (15.4 SwStr%), completing seven innings without a Barrel and a 29.4 Hard% first time out. The Brewers had just a 90 wRC+ last year and the projected lineup includes three batters with a 30+ K% against RHP since last season.
Freddy Peralta dominated the Mets, striking out eight of 19 batters with a single hit and walk. Last season, his 3.86 ERA was in line with his FIP (3.85, 16 HR/FB), though all other estimators were more than a quarter run lower. He struck out 30.9% of the batters he faced. The Mariners had a 107 wRC+, but 25.8 K% against RHP last year. They’ve started the season with a 67 wRC+ and 30.2 K% overall.
Both defenses are strong, Milwaukee may be better. Both bullpens project near the top of the league, though the Mariners get the nod, due to Milwaukee injuries.
DFS Notes: These are my two pitchers tonight. They’re two of the top pitchers on the board (along with Strider) and great values too. It is a protected, near neutral environment, but neither team exceeds a four run team total and there are plenty of strikeouts to be had in either lineup. Despite the environment, I don’t have any hitter on either team rated extremely highly.
Red Sox @ Angels
Kutter Crawford's 4.04 ERA was in line with estimators, though his xERA was only 3.28 without anything standing out in his contact profile. An 18.8 K-BB% is nothing to sneeze at and he struck out seven of 22 Mariners, allowing just four base runners in his first start. He did this with just 20 four-seam fastballs, 24 cutters and 31 sweepers, all generating whiff rates in the mid-20% range.
While Griffin Canning's 4.32 ERA matches his 4.29 FIP (16.1 HR/FB), all other estimators were just a bit below four, though he did allow 9.8% Barrels/BBE. His fastball was down nearly two mph, he still threw it 50% of the time and was smashed by the Orioles with just two strikeouts and three Barrels first time out.
Both offenses had an even 100 wRC+ v RHP last season. Both defenses are bad, but the Red Sox may be the worst. Both bullpens are below average, but the Angels might be one of the worst.
DFS Notes: The temperatures will be low, especially for L.A. here, but with the wind blowing out, this might be the most hitter friendly of the outdoor environments tonight. I’m not nuts about either pitcher in this spot against two perfectly average offenses. Although, the Red Sox have been awful the last seven days (79 wRC+, 27.4 K%, 3.7 HR/FB) in west coast parks. Both offenses are middle of the board (4.5 run team totals) and I’m really kind of luke warm on the whole thing. It’s fine. Don’t hate it. Don’t love it. Schanuel is a cheap 1B bat who gets on base if you need to go there and I may need to in order to fit in both my pitchers.
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