Six games in total on Thursday, only one starting after 4:15pm EST. No daily fantasy notes today, but may update with other minor observations.
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Tigers @ Mets (G1)
Let's try this again. Third time's a charm?
Casey Mize makes his return from Tommy John surgery. He struck out one-quarter of the 80 batters he faced this spring, but also walked 11.3%. His 2.21 ERA was belied by a .220 BABIP (4.78 xFIP). Projection systems see him slightly closer to five than four. He’s in a decent spot for his first start back. The Mets had a 103 wRC+ against RHP last year, but are off to an ice cold start (55 team wRC+) and it’s a pitcher’s park, while the defense behind Mize should be improved this year. Fangraphs actually projects Detroit as a top five pen now too.
Like the entire Mets’ rotation, Adrian Houser is the definition of a back end starter. His 4.12 ERA matches his 4.13 xERA and most other estimators, while a 20 K% was actually the second best mark of his career. He did allow a 46.3 Hard% with one of the lowest ground ball rates of his career (46.7%) though. He somehow got away going sinker/four-seamer 71% of the time. The new defense behind him this year, should be improved. The Tigers should improve on their 87 wRC+ last year with an infusion of young talent. Fangraphs projects the New York pen right on the edge of the top third.
Tigers @ Mets (G2)
The 80.1 major league innings Matt Manning threw in his rookie season (2021) are still a career high. And despite running an ERA around three and a half over his last two seasons (141 IP), estimators were more than a run higher in 2022 and two runs higher in 2023 (.214 BABIP). While Manning did strike out 19 of 64 batters this spring, he also walked seven and allowed 6 Home Runs!! He’s struck out seven of 17 with just one HR at AAA this year.
Jose Butto wasn’t thought of as much of a future option when sent to the minors after three outings in May of 2023. However, he went down there and reworked his slider into something different and harder. The results once he returned in late August were a 26.8 K% (13 SwStr%) and just two Barrels over 30 innings. He struck out nine of 40 this spring with a 14.2 SwStr%, while walking just two. Butto struck out just two of 24 in his first AAA start last week, but with an 11.9 SwStr%.
Pirates @ Nationals
Martin Perez struck out 16 of 59 batters (16.9 K-BB%), despite his velocity being down a mile and a half per hour this spring. Considering he’s only ever approached a 20% strikeout rate once in his entire career (16 K%) and has never had a double digit SwStr%, it’s unlikely he’s found something new at 33 years old. His 4.45 ERA was more than one-third run below all of his estimators last year and RBs have a .351 wOBA and .352 xwOBA against him since last season. The Nationals were actually league average against LHP last year (100 wRC+). In his initial outing of the season, Perez struck out just two of 21 Marlins, walking three, but allowing a single run with 68.8% of his contact on the ground. The Pirates back Perez with a strong defense and top half of the league bullpen projection.
Josiah Gray suffered estimators all more than a run above his 3.91 ERA last year with an 11.5 BB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE to go along with a 20.5 K%, but he was the beneficiary of an 80.4 LOB%. Yet, batters from either side of the plate exceeded a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while PitchingBot graded all of his pitches below average, many well so. Gray struck out six of 22 Reds in his first start with an 18.8 SwStr%, but three more Barrels (21.4%), two more home runs and a 71.4% hard hit rate led to seven runs. The Pirates are out to a 124 wRC+ through Tuesday and should improve on their 91 wRC+ against RHP last year. Gray has an awful defense and bullpen behind him.
If this line increases any further (currently WAS +110), the home team may have some value. The key to this is projecting the Washington average against LHP and Pittsburgh against RHP both virtually league average and fairly even, as I project both starting pitchers around five. That leaves Pittsburgh with a substantial defensive edge and about a half run bullpen one, which I don’t think gets them any further than pick’em on the road. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network)
Update: This line is moving the other way, towards the Nationals (+102).
Guardians @ Twins
Tanner Bibee had a respectable 16.4 K-BB% in his rookie season, but was also an excellent contact manager, allowing just 6.1% Barrels/BBE and an 8.0 HR/FB. However, even his contact inclusive estimators (FIP, xERA) were half a run above his 2.98 ERA with others (SIERA, xFIP, DRA) above four. At worst, that’s essentially a fine league average pitcher, but Bibee couldn’t find the plate in Oakland last weekend (five walks, 33 Zone%), striking out only four of 22 batters and failing to make it past four innings. He was also down over a mile and a half per hour.
Another potential issue is that despite his success last year, PitchingBot really didn’t like his fastball, while the Twins (111 wRC+, 27 K%, 15.9 HR/FB v RHP last year) are a fastball hunting and punishing lineup. If Bibee does continue to manage contact well, he may have the top defense in the league behind him, along with a competent bullpen.
Pablo Lopez broke out last year with a 23.2 K-BB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE and 34.8% hard hit rate. All of his estimators were below his 3.66 ERA, ranging only as high as a 3.37 SIERA. He dominated the Royals, striking out seven of 24 (17.9 SwStr%) with a single without a walk. Surprisingly, they did Barrel him three times, but that’s of little concern for a single game. The best pitchers need the fewest words. The Guardians are off to a hot start (136 wRC+), but had just a 96 wRC+ against LHP last year, despite striking out only 18.9% of the time against him. The Twins have a below average defense, but project one of the better bullpens in the league, even without Duran.
Marlins @ Cardinals
Ryan Weathers sustained his spring velocity spike (95.1 mph 2023, 96.7 mph 2024) in a first start of the season that may have been a little better than surface results suggest. He couldn’t find the plate with his sweeper, but turned to his changeup with a 36.8 Whiff%. He struck out five of 22 Pirates (11.7 SwStr%), but suffered a .500 BABIP despite a 64.3 GB% and 35.7 Hard%. All this is very encouraging for a pitcher with a 6.55 ERA, who’s lowest estimator was a 4.64 xERA, undermined by a 5.4 K-BB% last year. The Cardinals (60 wRC+ 2024) had just a 97 wRC+ against LHP and seem to have struggled against southpaws for years, despite a predominantly right-handed lineup. The Marlins have a middling bullpen, but don’t expect the defense to give Weathers any help.
Normally, we wouldn’t be able to glean much from a rain soaked start against the Dodgers, but Lance Lynn, he of 44 home runs last year, struck out five of 17 batters. Again, it was just 17 batters, so we can’t make much of the contact profile. Another factor leading to regression is that those home runs came on just 56 Barrels. Not that 10.4% Barrels/BBE is a good mark, but not as bad as the actual results (4.83 xERA, 5.53 FIP, 5.73 ERA). St Louis is also a power depressing park, especially early in the year when it’s not 100 degrees on the field. On the unfortunate side for Lynn, the St Louis defense cratered last year. The bullpen is middling and the Marlins were a below average offense last year (91 wRC+ v RHP), having slumbered out to a 58 team wRC+ through Tuesday. Miami will also be unable to take much advantage of Lynn’s platoon issues (LHBs ,383 wOBA, .354 xwOBA last year).
White Sox @ Royals
Mike Soroka struck out 17 of the 50 batters he faced this spring (23.4 SwStr%). He struck out none of the 24 Tigers he faced in his first start of the actual season (3.9 SwStr%), but he did walk three and had just a 41.7 F-Strike%. Soroka made six starts last year without a single estimator below four and a half. The Kansas City offense is off to a good start (107 wRC+ through Tuesday) and should improve upon their 86 wRC+ against RHP last year. The Chicago defense and bullpen projects to be subpar.
Seth Lugo successfully transitioned to a starting role last season with a 17.2 K-BB% and 3.57 ERA that was nearly a half run below estimators, A 4.45 xERA (44.2 Hard%, 9.6% Barrels/BBE) was a concern, but all other estimators were below four. Just 19 of Lugo's 41 barrels left the yard last year. Oddly, Lugo's curveball (generally his money pitch) had a -0.7 RV/100 last year, though PitchingBot liked it's look late in the year. It’s also a pitch the White Sox really struggled against last season. To be fair, they struggled against most pitches though (81 wRC+ v RHP) and have actually gotten off to a worse overall start this year (66 wRC+). The Kansas City defense does not project as well as last year, but the bullpen is still bottom third of the league, though not as bad as Chicago’s.
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