There are a lot of games to get to and a lot of early games, while I'm under some time constraints, so we may skip through some of the less interesting games more quickly. DFS notes on the five game evening slate tomorrow.
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Royals @ Orioles
Cole Ragans is no longer a secret. He struggled early, but ended up striking out nine of 26 Twins, continuing to blaze the path he set out on last year (28.8 K%, 3.26 xERA). The Orioles (112 wRC+ v LHP last year, 132 wRC+ in 2024 coming into Tuesday) will be a tough task.
Corbin Burnes showed what he’s capable of in his Orioles debut, striking out 11 of 19 batters. You don’t need me to explain who he is. Estimators around three and a half feel like an off year in 2023, though he did pour it on in the second half. The Royals had an 86 wRC+ against RHP last year, but have been hitting the ball well to start the season (107 wRC+ - all 2024 stats through Monday).
Both defenses and bullpens project marginally.
Red @ Phillies
Frankie Montas struck out only four of 21 Nationals with a 9.9 SwStr% in his return to the mound after missing virtually all of 2023, but he didn’t walk anybody or allow a single Barrel. His pitch maps reveal excellent command of his pitches with a slight velocity dip from 2022. Projection systems see him somewhere just below four and a half. The Phillies had a 104 wRC+ against RHP last year, but have a team 71 wRC+ so far this year.
Zack Wheeler’s velocity was down a full mph from last season in his first start, but he still struck out five of 23 Braves with a 20.2 SwStr%, throwing his four-seamer and sinker about two-thirds of the time. He didn’t walk anyone or allow a single Barrel either. My rule of thumb is that you don’t go looking for velocity issues if there are no problems and there don’t seem to be any here. You see a problem first and then check to see if velocity might be the issue. The Reds had just a 97 wRC+ against RHP last year, but have gotten off to a hot start in 2024 (129).
Both teams have atrocious defense. The Philly pen projects nearly half a run better.
Rangers @ Rays
Two Barrels and just three strikeouts (6.8 SwStr%) for Nathan Eovaldi in his first start against the Cubs. There were no velocity issues. It just looked like he hung some pitches. Estimators were about a third of a run above his 3.63 ERA last year, but he really struggled coming back from injury towards the end of the season before turning it on in the playoffs. The Rays have a team 113 wRC+ to start the season, similar to their 117 mark against RHP last year. Eovaldi’s reverse split may hurt him against the Rays who are only playing a single LHB (Lowe) against RHP these days, but he does have one of the best defenses in the league behind him. Bottom quarter of the league bullpen projection.
Aaron Civale had very similar estimators to Eovaldi last year (close to four). He struck out six of 22 Blue Jays to start the year, but with just a 5.8 SwStr%. When healthy and everything’s going well, he’s essentially a league average pitcher. Tough spot against the Rangers (147 wRC+ 2024), who had a 114 wRC+ against RHP last year. The defense is not what it usually is in Tampa, but the bullpen is still one of the best.
Update: Played the under 5.5 strikeout total for both starts. Both lineups strike out an average amount, while both pitchers had below average swinging strike rates in their first start. Small sample, but they don't have a history of enormous strikeout rates either. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Angels @ Marlins
I really don’t want to talk about either of these pitchers’ Opening Day start. I just hope to see better of them in the future. The one thing I will note on Patrick Sandoval is that his best pitch has always been his changeup, despite RHBs pummeling him since last year (.335 wOBA, .346 xwOBA), and it’s the pitch the Marlins struggled most against last year.
A.J. Puk has had several long relief outings than his first career start. He was all over the place and made a lot of people who were encouraged by his spring (ME) very sad. His fastball was sitting at 93 mph.
Both defenses stink and both bullpens project bottom half of the league. The Angels are worse.
Twins @ Brewers
Chris Paddack has made five starts since coming to the Twins, all in 2022. Projection systems have him around four and a quarter. He struck out just 10 of 60 this spring.
Joe Ross hasn’t pitched a major league inning since 2021. Projection systems have him slightly above four and a half. He struck out 17 of 57 with an 18.7 SwStr% this spring, but also seven walks.
Minnesota has the better offense. The Brewers have the far better defense. Both pens project strongly (Minnesota slightly better), but are missing their closers.
Braves @ White Sox
Spencer Strider struck out eight of 20 Phillies with a 20 SwStr% in his first start, but one of his 10 batted balls, his only Barrel, left the park. Strider had contact issues last season, but his 3.86 ERA was more a product of .316 BABIP and 70.3 LOB%. His xERA (3.02) was still far below his ERA. Great spot (White Sox 55 wRC+ this year, 81 at home and v RHP LY).
Nick Nastrini (projected, not confirmed) is a marginally regarded prospect (45 FV grade Fangraphs). He’s got the stuff to miss bats, but poor command. Nastrini struck out just 11 of 62 batters this spring, while walking nine. Welcome to the majors. Here’s the Braves (147 wRC+ this year, 123 on the road and vs RHP last year).
Both defenses stink. Chicago’s is worse. There’s about a full run difference in bullpen projections.
There’s no line on this game yet, but expect the Braves to be better than two to one favorites.
Update: The weather here seems so chaotic, that I really just want to play +295. Strider can be erratic with elevated contact and the wind is blowing out...though it is freezing.
Red Sox @ Athletics
A sweeper and better fastball location (up) revitalized Nick Pivetta’s career last season and for once, it actually stuck for the remainder of the season. Over his last 86 innings, Pivetta struck out 36.5% of batters (14.9 SwStr%) and for the season, every one of his estimators was below his 4.04 ERA. He followed that up by striking out 10 of 21 Mariners with a 19 SwStr% on Friday. He threw 28 sweepers with a 42.1 Whiff% and 24 four-seamers with a 44.4 Whiff%. Imagine what he’ll do to the A’s (73 wRC+, 29.2 K% this year, 89 wRC+ at home and vs RHP last year). Tons of strikeouts here. The Boston defense stinks, but he doesn’t use them anymore. Do I need some Cy Young exposure here?
Splitting time between rotation and bullpen last year, Ross Stripling produced 5.36 ERA that was in line with contact inclusive estimators (22 HR/FB, 10.2% Barrels/BBE), but a run above contact neutral ones (14.2 K-BB%). Should he be able to temper the contact issues, well, he still has an awful defense behind him. I’m surprised he struck out six of 24 Guardians on Friday. Not surprised he did it with just an 8.7 SwStr% and allowed five runs (four earned). With batters from either side of the plate above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Stripling, a balanced Boston lineup should be in good shape, though they were just an average offense last year (100 wRC+ v RHP) and have started off the season weakly (82 team wRC+). The Oakland defense is bad, but not as bad as Boston, while both bullpens project similarly, among the bottom half of the league.
Update: If the A's get to +150, they may have some value. With bullpens even, the A's having the edge on defense and the Boston offense merely league average, the only substantial edge the Red Sox have in this road game is starting pitcher.
Yankees @ Diamondbacks
Frankly, Carlos Rodon stunk in an injury shortened first season with the Yankees. A 4.87 SIERA was his only estimator below five, his strikeout rate was league average (22.4%) with a 9.8 BB% and he surrendered 12.2% Barrels/BBE (91.6 mph EV). None of it was good and it was more of the same (20.6 K%, 5.70 FIP, 5.40 xFIP) with continued reduced velocity in 19.1 spring innings. Batters from both sides smashed him (> .320 wOBA & xwOBA).
Suddenly, his pitches had more spin against the Astros and he was locating well. Rodon walked three Astros, but struck out four of 21 with a 12.6 SwStr%, allowing only a single run and Barrel. Six of his 14 batted balls were considered hard struck. It’s not the stuff of legends, but it’s improvement.
Merrill Kelly averaged 24 batters faced last year and exactly six innings over the last two seasons. His 3.29 ERA was a bit lower than estimators that were all within one-fifth of a run of four on either side, but that’s a pretty solid pitcher, who struck out 25.9% of batters last year, a career high. He struck out eight of 22 Rockies without a walk on Friday, which doesn’t change any of the above.
Why the hell are the Yankees favored in this game? Even if Rodon is better, he can’t be projected back to even Kelly’s level yet. The Yankees are better with Soto, but their 130 wRC+ is only two points ahead of Arizona’s going into Tuesday night. Arizona had just a 92 wRC+ v LHP last year, but the lineup looks better than that in 2024. The Diamondbacks have a far superior defense and bullpen projections are similar.
Perhaps Rodon goes on to prove me wrong, but he doesn’t deserve that respect back yet. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Update: I'm surprised everyone is ready to trust Rodon again. There's been no movement from the D'Backs off -102 and, in fact, the F5 line has moved towards the Yankees.
Guardians @ Mariners
Logan Allen stranded 78.8% of runners last season, pushing his 3.81 ERA about a half run below estimators for a guy who was pretty much an average pitcher in all aspects last season. A defense that was 15 OAA via Statcast might have had something to do with that, while the projected lineup was even better defensively. In fact, this might be the best defense in the league. Allen struck out only three of 23 A’s in his first start. He didn’t walk any, but both of his Barrels (11.1%) left the yard. The Mariners have started the season with just a 62 wRC+, but had a 106 mark against LHP last season.
If there’s a negative concerning George Kirby, it might be that he throws too many strikes, but a 2.5 BB% pushed him towards a 20.2 K-BB% and nearly six innings per start in his rookie season. Though estimators were about one-third of a run above his 3.35 ERA on average, he didn’t really suffer much from contact issues (40.9 Hard%) with a favorable park and defense behind him. Kirby had virtually no split with every one of his pitches grading above 60 via Pitching Bot. Kirby dominated the Red Sox at home in his first start, striking out eight of 24 batters (16 SwStr%) after walking the first two (none after). He finished with 6.2 shutout innings on two hits. The Guardians had just an 18.9 K% vs RHP last year, but also just a 96 wRC+. The Mariners project a more marginal defense than last year, but a better pen than Cleveland.
Cardinals @ Padres
With a 25.1 K% (16.4 K-BB%), Zack Thompson had estimators running a bit below a 4.48 ERA. There were just two problems. All of those increased when he moved from the pen to the rotation late in the season and a 4.55 xERA was the lone dissenter (90.3 mph EV). RHBs have exceeded a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, he could be in trouble against a lineup stacked full of them that had a 123 wRC+ against southpaws last year. The Dodgers took Thompson deep three times in his first start.
Pitching around injuries, Joe Musgrove made just 17 starts last year, though there was nothing wrong with the production. A 3.77 SIERA was the worst of his estimator, as he struck out 24.3% of batters against a 5.3 BB% and just a 33.5% hard hit rate (5.1% Barrels/BBE). Throwing a curveball, changeup and cutter, Musgrove was a reverse platooner last year (LHBs < .265 wOBA & xwOBA). Musgrove has struck out just five of 43 batters faced this year, allowing nine runs. His velocity is down a bit, but he’s held an 11.8 SwStr%. Tough to hold that first start against the Dodgers at a freakish time against him.
Not worried yet, but it’s enough to keep me off him where the numbers otherwise like him here and the Padres have every edge and significantly so for an F5.
Pirates @ Nationals
That Mitch Keller struck out 25.5% of batters last year is encouraging, but with just a 9.7 BB% is a bit concerning about his ability to repeat such a feat. While all estimators were below his 4.21 ERA, only his 3.70 xFIP was more than half a run so. In fact, his 4.13 xERA matched up quite well. Keller struck out just three of 27 Marlins, while allowing five runs, but only four were earned with one Barrel (4.8%) and a 16.5 SwStr%. The Nats offer an even less of an offensive challenge (89 wRC+ v RHP last year) with a strong defense and bullpen behind Keller.
Why is Trevor Williams still starting games. His ERA and estimators were all around five and a half last year with a 16.8 K% and batters from either side of the plate above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Stack up your Pirates and I say that without even looking at anything further. Just don’t expect to be alone in doing it. Williams is backed by an atrocious defense and bullpen.
Tigers @ Mets
Tuesday’s game was rained out. Move the starters over to Wednesday where the forecast is even worse.
Casey Mize makes his return from Tommy John surgery. He struck out one-quarter of the 80 batters he faced this spring, but also walked 11.3%. His 2.21 ERA was belied by a .220 BABIP (4.78 xFIP). Projection systems see him slightly closer to five than four. He’s in a decent spot for his first start back. The Mets had a 103 wRC+ against RHP last year, but are off to an ice cold start and it’s a pitcher’s park, while the defense behind Mize should be improved this year. Fangraphs actually projects Detroit as a top five pen now too.
Like the entire Mets’ rotation, Adrian Houser is the definition of a back end starter. His 4.12 ERA matches his 4.13 xERA and most other estimators, while a 20 K% was actually the second best mark of his career. He did allow a 46.3 Hard% with one of the lowest ground ball rates of his career (46.7%) though. He somehow got away going sinker/four-seamer 71% of the time. The new defense behind him this year, should be improved. The Tigers should improve on their 87 wRC+ last year with an infusion of young talent. Fangraphs projects the New York pen right on the edge of the top third.
Update: PPD DH Thursday
Rockies @ Cubs
A 4.79 FIP (8.8 HR/FB) was Cal Quantrill’s only estimator below a 5.24 ERA. That’s unlikely to improve in Colorado. LHBs exceeded a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while Statcast drives RHBs .311 wOBA up 50 points too. Quantrill threw his sinker and cutter nearly two-thirds of the time and both graded below 40 via Pitching Bot. The Rockies should have a good defense, but the worst pen projection in baseball. The Cubs should feast on Quantrill.
Drew Smyly (projected by Roster Resource, but not confirmed) had a 4.48 SIERA and 4.13 xERA, but other estimators nearly met his 5.00 ERA. Yet, he has a strong defense behind him and the Rockies (40 wRC+ this year) were below an 80 wRC+ on the road and v LHP last year. If he doesn’t pitch, whoever does will likely do fine.
I heard something about snow in Chicago on Wednesday. Will they even play this?
Blue Jays @ Astros
After a slow start to last season and some concern about reduced velocity, Chris Bassitt’s 3.60 ERA ended up right around his career average. However, estimators ranged from a 4.00 DRA to a 4.28 FIP. The good news is that Bassitt’s peripherals have been about a half run above his estimators for most his career and his 15.4 K-BB% was less than a point removed from his results in three of the previous four years. The Astros (107 wRC+ v RHP LY) are also lacking LHBs who can exploit Bassitt’s 40 points xwOBA and 102 point wOBA split last year. The Rays roughed Bassitt up in his first start, connecting for two Barrels (one HR) with just an 8.4 SwStr%. The stuff doesn’t really look any different though. Who knows though? He threw seven different pitchers at least twice. Great defense and a strong pen behind Bassitt, though it is currently missing two top cogs.
Christian Javier can be dominant, but at 88.4% fastball/slider, needs another strong offering to offset LHBs (.350 wOBA last year). It’s not great news that Statcast brings that down to a .322 xwOBA because it also brings RHBs up to a .329 xwOBA against him too. Javier struck out at least eight batters six times last year, but only 23.1% overall with a 9.0% walk rate. Most estimators were in agreement with his 4.56 ERA as a result. Javier shut down the Yankees, striking out six of 23 with a walk and no runs and only two hard hit balls allowed (12.5%) in his first start. His spin rates were up nearly 100 RPM and he didn’t hang any of his secondaries, throwing 25 changeups (he threw 119 all of last year). Interesting development. Stay tuned. Tough spot against the Jays. This lineup doesn’t strike out much, but doesn’t have many LHBs either. Marginal defense, solid pen behind Javier.
Giants @ Dodgers
Kyle Harrison made his MLB debut last year after striking out 35.6% of AAA batters over 65.2 IP. He wasn’t quite that productive in 34.2 MLB innings (23.8%), but did cut his walk rate from 16.3% to 7.5%. The problem was a 15.4 HR/FB and 9.3% Barrels/BBE, pushing his SIERA and xERA up to 4.45. Additional estimators were above five with just a 26.8 GB%. He could be more successful with the fly ball heavy approach in some of these tough west coast parks, especially shutting down RHBs (.274 wOBA, .289 xwOBA), but averaged less than five innings per start last year. While his initial outing against the Padres looked very successful (6 IP – 2 ER - 0 BB – 6 K), he had just a 6.6 SwStr% and was barreled up three times (16.67%). The Dodgers have jumped out to a 131 wRC+ to start the season and were at 114 against southpaws last year.
Tyler Glasnow has struck out eight of 42 batters, but with a 15.8 SwStr%. He has walked five, but there’s been no velocity loss or anything and he was much better on home soil in his second start. Last year, Glasnow’s 3.53 ERA was half a run above most estimators, although his contact inclusive 3.61 xERA tells a different story (90.4 mph EV, 11.6% Barrels/BBE) for a pitcher who has been hard contact prone at times. A 33.4 K% kept that from coming too much of a problem. The Giants will probably improve on their 94 wRC+ against RHP last year, but still have some strikeouts in that lineup.
The Giants also likely have at least small defensive and bullpen edges.
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