We have a mish mash of backend starters and team Aces coming back around again with some 2024 data. Monday was a day full of pain. I mean getting no-hit and then James Paxton walking five with four hits and allowing no runs over five innings pain. A little less wordy today, as there's a lot to get through and it's taking much longer than I'd hoped.
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Twins @ Brewers
Louie Varland had some long ball problems last year, posting a 21.1 HR/FB and 10.8% Barrels/BBE, but also had a 19.1 K-BB% with a 12.6 SwStr% and graduated just inside the top 100 prospects on Fangraphs last year. His contact neutral estimators were below four, but his issues were with RHBs (.349 wOBA, .345 xwOBA), as the cutter (32%) was his best pitch (1.1 RV/100, 29 Whiff%). The Brewers had just a 90 wRC+ and 23 K% against RHP.
Jakob Junis did not face more than 17 batters in any outing last season with only four short starts among his 86 innings. He ran a respectable 15.2 K-BB% over 46 batters this spring, which is right on his career rate. Projection systems see him slightly below four and a half in a starting role, but he takes on an offense that mashed RHP last season (111 wRC+). Junis will have a great defense behind him, but needs more than a slider (62.5%) in a starting role.
Both teams project top bullpens once their closers return.
Royals @ Orioles
Alec Marsh had estimators ranging from a 4.38 SIERA to a 6.00 xERA with his 5.69 ERA matching a 5.70 FIP (18.4 HR/FB). He struck out plenty (24.9%), but walked plenty (11.4%) too. Batters from either side of the plate exceeded a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
A 4.32 SIERA was the only estimator below Cole Irvin’s 4.42 ERA. His xERA ran more than a run higher (5.73). Only 11 of his 26 Barrels left the yard because that’s what Baltimore is now. The Royals had an 89 wRC+ against LHP last year (24 K%), but have some new bats in there.
Reds @ Phillies
Graham Ashcraft rode a cutter/slider combination over 90% of the time to 4.76 ERA and similar estimators. A spring velocity and strikeout spiker last spring, Ashcraft held none of those gains once the season started (9.5 K-BB%). RHBs ( > .360 wOBA, xwOBA) were 50 points better against him than LHBs.
Spencer Turnbull has thrown 81 innings since the start of the 2021 season. His 31 innings last year did not result in a single estimator below five.
These offenses were separated by just eight points of wRC+ against RHP last year. Both of these defenses stink, but the Phillies project a bullpen nearly half a run better than the Reds.
Angels @ Marlins
Tyler Anderson’s 5.43 ERA was right around the average of his estimators with just an 8.7 K-BB%. Even with a mere 32.3% hard hit rate, he still mustered an xERA slightly above five. While you may think the reverse split (33.8% changeups) could help him here, RHBs still hit above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him too. The Marlins also had a 103 wRC+ against LHP last year.
Jesus Luzardo struck out eight of the 19 Pirates he faced on Opening Day with a 20 SwStr%. Last year, his 3.58 ERA matched his FIP (3.55) with additional estimators about a quarter run higher with a 20.7 K-BB%. The Angels may have lost Ohtani, but run out a collection of guys who may be able to hit LHP
Both of these defenses are near the bottom of the league, while the Miami pen projects nearly one-third run better (Fangraphs).
Rangers @ Rays
With a strikeout rate dropping to 23.5% last year, Andrew Heaney’s estimators average four and a half (4.15 ERA). A 13.2 HR/FB was his lowest mark in any season with more than 70 innings since 2015, though he still allowed 10.2% Barrels/BBE. A reverse platoon split doesn’t make much sense, as he was a three pitch pitcher, throwing his changeup less than 20% of the time, but RHBs still hit him for a .328 wOBA and .324 xwOBA. The Rays smashed LHP (120 wRC+) at home (122).
Zack Elfin was cruising on Opening Day until the sixth inning. He ended up allowing six runs and three home runs to the Jays. Eflin broke out last season with a 3.50 ERA that was above all estimators and a 23.1 K-BB%. Batters from either side of the plate were below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The Rangers displayed a 114 wRC+ against RHP last season and the offense may be even better this season.
The Rangers project the superior defense here, but the Rays project a bullpen nearly half a run better (Fangraphs).
Tigers @ Mets
Casey Mize makes his return from Tommy John surgery. He struck out one-quarter of the 80 batters he faced this spring, but also walked 11.3%. His 2.21 ERA was belied by a .220 BABIP (4.78 xFIP). Projection systems see him slightly closer to five than four. He’s in a decent spot for his first start back. The Mets had a 103 wRC+ against RHP last year, but are off to an ice cold start and it’s a pitcher’s park, while the defense behind Mize should be improved this year. Fangraphs actually projects Detroit as a top five pen now too.
Like the entire Mets’ rotation, Adrian Houser is the definition of a back end starter. His 4.12 ERA matches his 4.13 xERA and most other estimators, while a 20 K% was actually the second best mark of his career. He did allow a 46.3 Hard% with one of the lowest ground ball rates of his career (46.7%) though. He somehow got away going sinker/four-seamer 71% of the time. The new defense behind him this year, should be improved. The Tigers should improve on their 87 wRC+ last year with an infusion of young talent. Fangraphs projects the New York pen right on the edge of the top third.
There’s a good chance this game is a washout.
DFS Notes: This is generally a pretty difficult slate to make a lineup on. Playing this game might make it a little bit easier with some cheap Detroit LHBs against Houser’s .343 wOBA and .322 xwOBA against them last year, but it does not look promising for today or tomorrow. And if they do play, the weather will be plenty of pitcher friendly (Tigers fourth lowest run total on the board). The Dodgers potentially going with a bullpen game rather than Tyler Glasnow does give us more options with Giants bats later.
Rockies @ Cubs
Kyle Freeland held three and a half mph of a velocity spike from this spring in his first start, but he either threw those fastballs right down the pipe or in uncompetitive spots. The results were disastrous. Ten of the 17 batters he faced scored. Freeland’s 5.03 ERA was below all estimators last year and I can’t believe he’d actually be worse with that much of a gain. If his 13.9 K% from last year sustains, he’s not worth anything to anyone. RHBs smashed him last year (.390 wOBA, .387 xwOBA) and he’s likely to face nearly a full lineup of them against the Cubs (111 wRC+ Hm, 110 v RHP LY). The Colorado defense is improved, but the bullpen remains worst in the league via FG projections.
Splitting his time between the rotation and pen last year, Javier Assad’s estimators ranged from a 4.29 FIP and 4.58 xERA. A pretty tight range well above a 3.05 ERA (83.3 LOB%, .268 BABIP). I haven’t looked at the DFS aspect yet, but considering the great defense behind him, April weather at Wrigley (the won’t even list a total until Tuesday) and that the Rockies (76 wRC+ Rd, 80 v RHP LY) make almost pitcher playable outside Coors…?? The Cubs project a middle of the road bullpen.
DFS Notes: Near freezing. Pitcher friendly for sure. Rain concerns seem to be a delay before the game, not during. I’d have a hard time trusting Freeland after what he did on Opening Day, even if he is several miles per hour faster, but I’m willing to (and will) use Javier Assad as my DK SP2 because it’s the Rockies under terrible conditions (3.41 implied runs). Those same conditions make me hesitant to stack Cubs, despite the third highest team run total (4.59), though you can utilize some of their RHBs on a tough slate.
Braves @ White Sox
Two relievers turned starters in this one. Reynaldo Lopez has started major league games before, but not many (18) since 2020 and 1 since 2022. He struck out just 13 of 61 batters this spring, but with a 17.4 SwStr%, while walking six. Projection systems believe he’ll be respectable with an ERA just north of four in this role. He’s in a great spot against his old team (81 wRC+ Hm & v RHP LY). He won’t get an upgrade in defense behind him, but his bullpen projects among the best in baseball.
Garrett Crochet struck out eight of 23 Tigers over 87 pitches in his first major league start. And his fastball velocity was actually UP a full mph (via Statcast)! Maybe it was adrenaline from an Opening Day start, but he has our attention. But not against the Braves (123 wRC+ Rd, 131 v RHP LY) with an atrocious defense and bullpen behind him. Although, everyone has a price. Projection systems see him being quite competent (ERA/FIP around four) as a starter.
DFS Notes: Similar weather to Wrigley, though the wind direction is blowing strongly OUT to CF, which could make this just slightly less pitcher friendly. I’d need to see more from Lopez, but could see why some would consider him in this spot, though he’s middle of the board ($7.5K) on DK. I don’t know that I can fire on Crochet, even under these conditions, against the Braves. Unfortunately, he won’t be as cheap if he repeats his Opening Day performance. Braves bats are interesting here because they cost a lot under terrible conditions against a pitcher who shined on OD. They still have a 5.41 run team total, but I question their ownership numbers in this spot. Will players blindly follow the run total or consider the other aspects (price, opposing pitcher, weather) more strongly. A few Braves stacks are a must in multi-entry games.
Blue Jays @ Astros
Jose Berrios had it working on Opening Day, striking out six of 23 Rays with one walk and half his contact on the ground. While the rediscovery his breaking ball (.270 wOBA, 30 Whiff%, 61 Grade via Pitching Bot) may have contributed to his resurgence (3.61 ERA), his best estimators were a 3.99 FIP & DRA, while the Slurve had a .317 xwOBA against. Only a 4.51 xERA was more than half a run worse than actual results though. He’s always had the potential to be better, so maybe this is the year he consistently puts it together, but it’s a tough spot. The Astros had a 107 wRC+ and 20.5 K% against RHP last year. The Toronto defense and bullpen both project among the top quarter of the league though and Berrios may benefit from facing seven RHBs (.285 wOBA, .311 xwOBA LY).
Framber Valdez certainly didn’t have it working, walking six of 23 Yankees with five Ks on Opening Day. He struck out a career high 24.8% of batters faced last season (not counting 2020), but issues with contact (91.5 mph EV, 45.6% hard hit rate) and 10 unearned runs kept his 3.45 ERA well below a 4.30 xERA. While a 54.1 GB% would be considered elite for much of the league, it was the lowest mark of his career (any season) by more than five points. I think the Blue Jay are a tough matchup (111 wRC+, 19.1 K% v LHP LY), but they just got no-hit by Ronel Blanco. The Astros still project a strong pen, but the defense may have slipped toward the middle of the league.
Gonna try this one again though. Offenses and bullpens are very competitive. Valdez still currently gets about a quarter run edge over Berrios, but I don’t think that and home field are enough to make the Astros more than a small favorite when the Jays should have the better defense too. Bichette being out again tomorrow would be a small concern, but not enough to change the play.
DFS Notes: Berrios always has a wide range of outcomes. Enough so, that he may be cheap enough for some exposure on DraftKings ($7.7K). The Astros also have the second highest implied run on the board (4.71), which is too high if Berrios is on, but sure, some Houston exposure too. Alvarez (175 wRC+, .319 ISO v RHP since LY) and Tucker (133 wRC+, .218 ISO) are top bats. On the other side, Valdez struggled his first time out and wasn’t as good as people might think last year, while the projected Toronto lineup has the lowest average strikeout rate on the board. I don’t hate a Jays stack or two mixed in in a protected environment.
Red Sox @ Athletics
Bello struck out just two of 20 Mariners (a team that strikes out quite a bit) on Opening Day. An inconsistent rookie season ended with a 4.24 ERA fairly well in line with most estimators in a tough park and division. He did run a 17.1 HR/FB (19.4 at home), but with a 56.2 GB% and just 7.0% Barrels/BBE. His 10.7 SwStr% was league average, despite the 19.8 K%, so there should be some room to grow there.
Bello should find a ton of strikeouts in this lineup. There’s only one batter in the projected Oakland lineup against RHP below a 22.4 K% against RHP and he generally bats ninth. The A’s otherwise had just an 89 wRC+ at home and against RHP. Bello has perhaps the worst defense in the league behind and not a bottom half of the league pen as well.
Six of the 18 Guardians Alex Wood faced on Opening Day scored. Throwing 91 mph sinkers right down the pipe 50% of the time isn’t going to get it done. Wood allowed just 5.6% Barrels/BBE last season, but his ground ball rate was a career low 45% (40 IP min.). While the increase in fly balls may not hurt him in Oakland, the single digit K-BB% and 4.33 ERA that was below all estimators might. RHBs had a .348 wOBA & .333 xwOBA against him last year, while LHBs exceeded .300 as well. The Red Sox had just a 96 wRC+ against LHP last year and may not be much improved this year. It’s a park downgrade for this offense, but they get a poor defense and bullpen aside from Wood.
DFS Notes: Yes, Bello, sure. It’s the A’s in Oakland with pitching weather. They strike out a ton! However, cheap Oakland LHBs like Noda (121, .161) and Bleday (114, .187) against a .375 wOBA and .331 xwOBA for batters from that side against Bello since last year. I have both as a way to fit in more expensive bats in other spots in my main lineup. Sure, Boston bats against Wood too, but maybe don’t go crazy. They only have a middle of the board run total (4.38) in a tough park and nobody in the projected lineup exceeded a 125 wRC+ (O’Neill) against LHP since last year. I actually don’t have any Red Sox in my initial build.
Update: This isn’t comfortable, but I believe the A’s have reached their price. Bello is the better pitcher, but averaged estimators above four too. The Boston offense had a 96 wRC+ against RHP and don’t have anyone in the projected lineup above 125. The A’s probably have the better defense and bullpen projections are a wash on Fangraphs.
Guardians @ Mariners
It may have been just the A’s, but Shane Bieber carried his spring velocity increase into Opening Day and struck out half of the 22 batters he faced (21.7 SwStr%). He also said that someone at Driveline told him he was holding his curveball differently. He struck out 19 of 61 batters with a 22.3 SwStr% this spring. Last year, those numbers were a 20.1 K% with a 10.5 SwStr%, earning him a 3.80 ERA that was below, but in line with most of his estimators. A 4.73 xERA based on a 47.8 Hard% & 91.6 mph EV was an exception. This one might be a little tougher, but there are still some strikeouts in this lineup (Mariners 107 wRC+, 25.8 K% v RHP LY) and the Cleveland defense is one of the best in the game.
One sour note, Bieber had a pretty large split last year (LHBs > .350 wOBA & xwOBA) and for most of his career, something the Mariners may be better equipped to take advantage of than the A’s. Cleveland projects a middling bullpen.
For some unpredictable reason, Luis Castillo often seems to struggle through April. He did strikeout five of 23 Red Sox on Opening Day, but also allowed four runs with a 43.8 Hard% and 5.5 SwStr%. While Castilo’s 3.34 ERA was about half a run below estimators last year, he supported it with a 20.3 K-BB%, A 38.9 GB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE fares a hell of a lot better in Seattle than it does in Cincinnati. LHBs were still around league average against him though (.323 wOBA, .322 xwOBA) and Cleveland can fill up a lineup with a lot of them who don’t strike out (18.9 K% v RHP last year) or hit for power (7.8 HR/FB v RHP). The Seattle defense and bullpen are strengths in a tough park.
DFS Notes: Bieber is my top overall pitcher and a great value with Glasnow moved back. There are some Ks here. Sure, some LHB Mariners are okay too. I have Crawford as a top three SS tonight. Castillo is the most expensive pitcher and I buy into the April struggles less than Guardians not striking out enough. I don’t say not to have any exposure because I don’t like Cleveland bats either in this park.
Cardinals @ Padres
Miles Mikolas got tattooed by the Dodgers. He struck out five of 20, but with just a 6.8 SwStr%. What did you think was going to happen? Last year, his 4.78 ERA was a sad match for all of his non-FIP (4.27) estimators. With just a 15.9 K%, 38.8 GB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE, he may be the victim of many lineups in 2024, especially with the defense now falling flat. The Padres aren’t as potent without Juan Soto, but this lineup doesn’t strike out a lot. Mikolas is supported by a middling bullpen.
Yu Darvish has struck out 10 of 37 batters with four walks across two starts. The stuff actually looks better than last year when Darvish was barely an average pitcher with estimators around four. Maybe it wasn’t decline, but injury. While Darvish struggled with LHBs last year (.348 wOBA), Statcast separates his performance splits by just two points of xwOBA. Offense has never been St Louis’s problem (107 wRC+ v RHP LY). Well, it has this year so far (28 wRC+ entering Monday). Darvish still has a strong defense behind him, but not a great pen.
The Cardinals may have the slight offensive edge, but starting pitching and defense strongly favor the Padres. With all the balls in play against Mikolas, I like the Padres (-135 F5) even more. (Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network.)
DFS Notes: Cool weather here, but not freezing. Darvish is fine, but may be a bit too expensive against this lineup. I don’t have any Padres in my initial build because it’s not a great offense and not a hitter friendly environment. Also, nobody in the projected lineup who’s not a rookie exceeded a 120 wRC+ (Bogaerts) against RHP last year. I will have some San Diego stacks if I build more lineups though. Batters from either side > .325 wOBA & xwOBA v Mikolas since LY.
Yankees @ Diamondbacks
Nestor Cortes threw just 63 disastrous innings last year with a 4.97 ERA, though for once, his main estimators averaged nearly half a run lower (4.58). Expecting regression from his 83.7 LOB% from the previous two seasons did not mean we expected it to drop all the way to 69.1%. His strikeout rate was still a productive 25.2% with just 7.4% Barrels/BBE. Despite a 13.2 SwStr% and five strikeouts (22 BF), he wasn’t very efficient against the Astros (four runs), but with 53.6% of his contact on the ground.
After a heavy workload last season, Zac Gallen’s velocity was down this spring and he carried a 1.5 mph drop into the season opener, but was still efficient enough to shut the Rockies down over five innings. Despite just three strikeouts (21 BF), he did have a 15.3 SwStr%. I’m not sure what to think here. He has a great defense behind him, but the Yankees will definitely be tougher competition and Gallen will need to go deeper, as a mediocre bullpen was heavily used on Monday.
There might be value on the D’Backs (-112) if all is right with Gallen, but too hard to tell.
DFS Notes: I’m struggling with these two pitchers. Either could be really good, but I’m not buying on them right now. With the roof expected to be open, this becomes a more hitter friendly environment with both these teams as exactly four and a half implied runs. I don’t think players will be stacking against Gallen, but if something’s wrong with him, it’s a great idea. I have Soto (170, .273) as a top bat either way and also like RH D’Backs against Cortes (.342 wOBA, .319 xwOBA against since LY).
Giants @ Dodgers
Pretty much what one would expect from Logan Webb on Opening Day. Ground balls, enough strikeouts and a quality start. Webb’s 3.25 ERA was a fairly decent match for estimators, though a 3.66 xERA was the only one above it (90.6 Z-Contact%, 46% hard hit rate). Of course, 62.1% of that contact was on the ground, rendering his 15.4 HR/FB (17.4 on the road) less harmful than it would look. Webb was worse against same-handed batters last year (by nearly 50 points of wOBA), which makes sense with the changeup being his most frequently thrown (41.6%) and best pitch. It could be helpful here if the Dodgers go with their normal six LHBs against RHP. Of course, that doesn’t make this an easy matchup (117 wRC+ v RHP last year).
Tyler Glasnow (projected, not yet confirmed) has struck out eight of 42 batters, but with a 15.8 SwStr%. He has walked five, but there’s been no velocity loss or anything and he was much better on home soil in his second start. Last year, Glasnow’s 3.53 ERA was half a run above most estimators, although his contact inclusive 3.61 xERA tells a different story (90.4 mph EV, 11.6% Barrels/BBE) for a pitcher who has been hard contact prone at times. A 33.4 K% kept that from coming too much of a problem. The Giants will probably improve on their 94 wRC+ against RHP last year, but still have some strikeouts in that lineup.
The Giants also likely have at least small defensive and bullpen edges.
DFS Notes: Bullpen games are tougher than you think because batters are facing a new pitcher each time. I usually err towards avoiding most bats in these games, but it certainly gives San Francisco bats an upgrade over Glasnow, while the weather in Dodger Stadium is nearly neutral tonight. This is a tough board and Giants are cheap. I like someone like Wade (125, .170) near the top of the lineup within $400 of $3K on either DK or FD, where he’ll likely face RHPs three or four times. Similarly for Yastrzemski (I just wanted you to know I could spell that). Logan Webb is good enough to beat anybody, but he’s not cheap and is more floor than ceiling, which means I’m expecting low ownership and don’t hate him here. That said, I have Betts and Ohtani as top bats tonight (not necessarily top values) and don’t forget Webb’s reverse split.
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