Smart people are creating better and better projection systems all the time. It's what the best daily fantasy players and sports bettors now use to have any chance of beating the system because the sportsbooks are using them too. If you're not using a projection system, it can be very difficult to beat them, but the first month of the season is the best time to try.
This is because projections (the best ones anyway) like large sample sizes and regress any small ones either towards career numbers or league average. Regress, regress, regress.
Why?
Because it's almost always the right thing to do. But rarely, it's not. If you can catch on to an actual skill change quickly (not just a hot or cold streak), you have a chance to beat projections, which are generally slow to catch on.
What's a skill change in baseball? Positively, a new pitch, a velocity increase, altered mechanics, swing changes. Negatively, an injury, slowing of bat speed or loss of velocity. Projection systems mostly believe that players will improve and age incrementally, as most players do. When you can find differently, that's where your edge lies and sometimes it takes some educated risks. Sometimes it works (Shane Bieber), sometimes it doesn't (Kyle Freeland).
Onto Monday...
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Braves @ White Sox
Charlie Morton debuted with the Braves in 2008. That was the last time his walk rate exceeded his 11.6% mark last year. That was it. That was the reason his non-FIP estimators (9.4 HR/FB) were well above his 3.64 ERA, averaging near four and a half. It’s a concerning trend because it’s the third year in a row his walk rate increased. Statcast (-1.3 RV/100) and PitchingBot grades believe the fastball was the issue because both still grade the curveball (43.2%) very well (2 RV/100).
The White Sox (81 wRC+ at home and v RHP last year) did not hit curveballs, or any other pitch aside from the sliders, very well. The Braves project one of the worst defenses, but best bullpens in the league.
Chris Flexen has had trouble staying in rotations in recent years. With just a 15.9 K%, he didn’t have a single estimators below five last year and while LHBs hit him well (.344 wOBA, .330 xwOBA), RHBs absolutely smashed him (.492, .410). The Braves posted a 123 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP last season. With the White Sox defense just as bad as the Braves and their bullpen projecting better than only the Rockies, you can probably guess how this is likely to go.
Rockies @ Cubs
The Rockies collect ground ball pitchers. It doesn’t matter if they’re good or not. Dakota Hudson generated 51.5% of his contact on the ground last season. He also struck out 12.9% of batters with a 45.4% hard hit rate. If that’s not impressive enough, how about a 92% Z-Contact rate and 44 Z-O-Swing%. If you don’t understand those numbers, suffice to say both are worst among any of Monday’s pitchers. RHBs had a .336 wOBA and .344 xwOBA against him. RHBs were 30 to 50 points better. Thus, it doesn’t matter that the Cubs don’t have many LHBs. Hudson had a -2.4 K-BB% and 18.2 HR/FB on the road last season. He also threw a terrible slider (32.1%, -1.3 RV/100) a pitch the Cubs were a top five offenses against in the second half last season. On the positive side, the Rockies have some studs on defense. Maybe they can turn more of those ground balls into outs. They have the worst projected bullpen in the majors too. The Cubs are an average offense against RHP.
Shoto Imanaga struck out 25 of the 60 batters he faced in spring training with just three walks. Batters also had a .533 BABIP against him with just six of 31 batters balls on the ground, but five infield flies. Most projection systems have him in the mid-to-upper threes, though the BAT has him projected for an ERA & FIP around four and a half. He surrendered two home runs in six innings in the WBC last year and has had home run issues in Japan. He would benefit more from the wind blowing in at Wrigley than Hudson. Of course, everyone benefits from facing the Rockies (74 wRC+ v LHP, 76 wRC+ on the road) and Imanaga should have a strong defense behind him. The Chicago bullpen projects middle of the board.
Pirates @ Nationals
Marco Gonzales threw just 50 innings last year, as his season came to an end before June. At best, he’s an inning eating contact manager. He struck out 15.8% of batters last season, which is less than two points below his career rate. Projection systems have him with an ERA/FIP around five. The Nationals make a lot of contact (18.2 K% v LHP last year), but it’s rarely very good contact (8.7 HR/FB v LHP). The Pittsburgh bullpen projects around average, the defense a bit above.
Mackenzie Gore struck out 26% of batters last season with a 12.1 SwStr%. That’s fairly impressive. He also walked 9.8% and allowed an 18.2 HR/FB on 12.1% Barrels/BBE. That is unimpressive. The contact profile made his 5.20 xERA the worst of his estimators, which fell as low as respectable 4.11 xFIP. Batters from either side of the plate had a .325+ wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs above .380. He’ll likely face a predominantly right-handed Pittsburgh lineup, which had an 89 wRC+ against southpaws last year, but project quite a bit better in 2024. The projected Washington lineup is awful defensively, while the bullpen projects near the bottom of the pile as well.
Royals @ Orioles
Michael Wacha rode a four-seam/changeup combination (combined 3.5 RV/100) to a 3.22 ERA that was a bit of an aberration with a 9.1 HR/FB, 79.7 LOB% and .266 BABIP, but his 14.6 K-BB% was fine with non-FIP estimators in the low-to-mid fours. That’s still a useful pitcher for a team like the Royals, even with heavy regression. He’ll get a downgrade in defense this year, but the Royals should also be fine in that area, while the bullpen is a cause for concern. The Orioles had a 103 wRC+ against RHP last year, but are off to a hot start and could build upon that number this year.
Dean Kremer had a 4.78 ERA, .348 wOBA against, 4.92 FIP and 4.31 xFIP in the first half of the season. He had a 3.25 ERA, .277 wOBA against, 3.98 FIP and 4.38 xFIP in the second half. Seasoned baseball reader, you know what that means. His HR/FB went from 16.5% in the first half to 9.6% in the second. He also jacked his ground ball rate up 11 points in the second half and dropped his hard hit rate six points. That’s 20 dingers in the first half and just seven in the second in 24 fewer innings. However, his K-BB also decreased from 16% to 11%. You should be a bit concerned about whether he can sustain this. His season estimators averaged around four and a half.
On a positive note, the Baltimore defense was below average last year (-10 OAA), but the projected lineup against RHP this year totaled 9 OAA, while the Royals had a 76 road wRC+ and an 86 mark against RHP, though the lineup should be better in 2024. The Baltimore bullpen is a bit of a concern, but a .349 wOBA and .373 xwOBA for LHBs against Kremer is a more major one, though the Royals may throw out more RHBs (.290, .310) than LHBs here.
Reds @ Phillies
Andrew Abbott’s 80% strand rate made his ERA (3.87) look a bit better than his estimators. He did walk 9.6% of the batters he faced and allow 9.2% Barrels/BBE, but also struck out 26.1%. In fact, his xERA (3.93) was in line with his actual results, but his DRA (4.95) was a full run higher. Abbott gets out of Cincinnati today, but finds himself in another rough spot in Philadelphia (108 wRC+ v LHP LY) with a really bad bullpen and defense behind him. Abbott had a 100 point platoon split last year too, though the Phillies generally keep a few LHBs in there against LHP.
Like Abbott, Cristopher Sanchez had a massive platoon split last year (RHBs .325 wOBA, .328 xwOBA, LHBs < .200), but he’s likely to face at least eight RHBs and also has a terrible defense behind him in a tough park against a dangerous lineup. That said, Sanchez made sinkers sexy against last season (46.2%, 1 RV/100) and the Reds can be beat with good fastballs. He also walked just 4% of batters (20.2 K-BB%) with 57% of his contact on the ground, due to that sinker. A 3.99 FIP (22.2 HR/FB, 16 of 23 Barrels went for HRs) was his only estimator more than half a run above 3.44 ERA. The Philadelphia bullpen has been problematic against the best offense in the league to open the season, but project more in the middle of the league.
Update: Added C.Sanchez o5.5 Ks based on notes above + pitcher friendly weather & umpire and seven in Cincinnati lineup > 23 K% v LHP LY (Follow RockyJade on Action Network).
Angels @ Marlins
Chase Silseth could be dangerous could be dangerous if he threw more strikes when he needed to (11.8 BB%) and put his four-seam fastball away (wOBA & xwOBA > .400 against last year). The pitch greatly contributed to a 22.5 HR/FB and 10.2% Barrels/BBE. On a more positive note, his slider and splitter both got whiffs on over one-third of swings, leading to a 25.3 K%. His 3.96 ERA was below, but within half a run of all non-FIP estimators. It was only 52.1 innings at the major league level last year though. He gets a nice matchup (Marlins 91 wRC+ v RHP LY) with a park upgrade. The defense and bullpen for the Angels aren’t expected to be assets this season though.
Max Meyer made his debut in 2022, pitched six innings and then Tommy John Surgery. He was a top prospect and still carries a 50 FV grade and Top 100 ranking on Fangraphs. Meyer didn’t allow a run this spring, but only struck out five of 26 batters (1 walk). Projection systems have him in the low-to-mid-fours. Meyer has never struck out fewer than 27% of batters in his minor league career. He also won’t get a lot of help from the gloves behind him, while the bullpen projects middle of the league. The Angels had an average offense without Trout for a good portion of the year, but will probably be worse than that without Ohtani for any of it.
Rangers @ Rays
Dane Dunning doesn’t miss a lot of bats (19.4 K%, 9.7 SwStr%), but uses his sinker (1.9 RV/100) to generate enough ground balls (46.3%) and doesn’t allow a lot of barreled contact (7.5%). The 77.5% strand rate was a bit high with estimators in a narrow 4.27 (FIP) to 4.55 (DRA) range, well above his ERA (3.70). Texas does have a great defense behind him and Tampa Bay is a pitcher’s park, but that doesn’t bother the Rays (122 wRC+ at home, 117 v RHP LY). The Texas bullpen projects in the bottom quarter of the league this year.
Ryan Pepiot never really got much of a chance with the Dodgers and is intriguing in the hands of the Rays. ERA aside, he really seemed to click this spring, striking out 24 of 81 batters (14 SwStr%) with just four walks. Did they trade the current Tyler Glasnow for a future one? The changeup being his top pitch, 75 LHBs had just a .167 wOBA and .228 xwOBA against him last year, but he does need to work on the slider (84 RHBs .325 wOBA & xwOBA). He’ll likely face a balanced lineup against the Rangers, who had a 114 wRC+ against RHP last year. Defense is less of a strength than it’s been in the past for the Rays, while the bullpen projects among the best in baseball.
I'm projecting on Pepiot a little here to be, well, better than projection systems think. Therefore believing the Rays have a significant pitching advantage in this game, both starting and bullpen. I see a little bit of value here at -120, though with some reserve due to the unexpected Texas defensive edge and strong lineup. (Follow RockyJade on the Action Network).
Tigers @ Mets
A cold weather game in a pitcher friendly park, neither offense eclipses four implied runs, which only makes each of these pitchers more interesting. Reese Olson allowed 10.9% Barrels/BBE, giving him a 4.79 ERA, but none of his other estimators were even a quarter of a run above his 3.99 ERA. With all of the hype other Detroit pitching prospects are getting, he’s gone under the radar, but may be a perfectly able middle of the rotation arm. The defense behind him is likely improved from last year too, while the bullpen is now projecting near the top of the league (via Fangraphs). The Mets are a quality offense (103 wRC+ v RHP) that hasn’t quite gotten going yet (61). Statcast runs Olson’s .302 wOBA against LHBs up to a .371 xwOBA, so that’s something else to watch out for. The Mets do have some left-handed pop, but mostly a balanced lineup.
Sean Manaea was trapped in a funky starter/reliever/bulk inning role for the Giants last year when he discovered a sweeper and excelled enough to reclaim a rotation spot for four starts in September (17 K-BB%/2.25 ERA/3.21 FIP/3.85 xFIP). Manaea carried that performance into the spring, striking out 21 of 68 batters. Some of Detroit’s best young hitters are left-handed and batters from that side had a wOBA and xwOBA below .270 against Manaea last season. The Tigers had a team 95 wRC+ against LHP overall. The defense and bullpen for the Mets should be improved.
On a tough daily fantasy slate where we’ll have to embrace risk, weather conditions dampen some of the offensive situations, as is the case here. I already had some interest in both pitchers, but especially Manaea for less than $8K tonight.
Blue Jays @ Astros
Bowden Francis has thrown 37 relief innings in the majors with an impressive 20.1 K-BB%, but he’s nearly 28 years old and projection systems expect an ERA above four and a half. He’s in a tough spot in Houston (107 wRC+ v RHP last year), but the Blue Jays should have the better defense in this one, while both pens project among the league’s best.
In 52 innings, Rionel Blanco walked 12.4% of the batters he faced, while allowing 11.8% Barrels/BBE. All estimators were above his 4.50 ERA with only a 4.86 SIERA below five. The four seamer (40.5%) was worth -3.5 RV/100 and grades out as an awful pitch, which is not good news against these Blue Jays (106 wRC+ v RHP).
With most else being equal and Toronto likely having the defensive edge, I’m finding some value on the Blue Jays as a short dog. Though Francis in a starting role really is a question mark, Blanco likely isn’t anything better. (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
Inside a protected environment, the Astros have a top three run total (4.86). From the above, you can guess I believe the Blue Jays are too low (4.14) and really like the bats in this game. Vlad Jr. (102 wRC+, .202 ISO v RHP since LY) is a go get ‘em, as is Yordan Alvarez (177, .321), as I consider both top bats tonight. However, the only player from this game that made my original first LU build on DK is Yainer Diaz (152, .282), whom I consider a top value play.
Red Sox @ Athletics
Tanner Houck missed two months in the middle of the season, finishing with 106 innings and a 5.01 ERA, but estimators ranging from a 3.93 DRA to a 4.43 FIP. Houck struck out only 21.4% of batters faced, but kept 53% of his contact on the ground. He looked sharp this spring, strikeout out 16 of 57 batters with just four walks (8.9% last year). In a great spot (A’s 89 wRC+ at home and v RHP), but with an atrocious defense and potentially below average bullpen behind him, the Red Sox still stand a good chance of holding run prevention down in a pitcher’s park with non-hitter friendly weather (though not the worst).
My assumption is that Houck will be a very popular pitcher in the $8K range. Houck did have a 100 point platoon split last year though (LHBs > .360 wOBA & xwOBA). Ryan Noda (122 wRC+, .163 ISO v RHP since LY) made my initial DK LU as a value play.
Joe Boyle has great stuff, but rarely knows where it’s going. He did walk just five of 60 batters at the major league level in three starts, but has never had a single digit walk rate at any minor league level of competition. In fact, he’s never had a K+BB rate below 40%, meaning only around half the batters make contact. He’s facing an average lineup in a favorable park, but will likely get little help from his defense or bullpen.
From a daily fantasy standpoint, I don’t know what to make of Boyle. He has a wide range of outcomes, but low floor. Boston’s 4.38 implied run total is only middle of the board and no Red Sox made my initial lineup.
The numbers are telling me the A’s have some value above +120, but I just don’t have enough of a read on Boyle to make it happen this early in the season.
Guardians @ Mariners
These pitchers threw a combined 28 innings at the big league level last year. Triston McKenzie struck out just nine of 45 batters this spring and had a .438 BABIP against him. On top of that, I’d be concerned about the workload from a daily fantasy standpoint. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board and while there are plenty of strikeouts in the top half of the Seattle lineup and it’s a great pitching environment with an elite defense behind him, he feels like too much of a risk for not enough reward. The Cleveland bullpen projects middle of the road behind him if you’re thinking of Seattle bats.
Emmerson Hancock has run slightly better than average strikeout rates in the minors, but punched out just eight of 45 this spring. He’s the third ranked Seattle prospect this year (Fangraphs), but with just a 45 Future Value grade, projecting an ERA/FIP above four and a half, about half a run higher than McKenzie. While the Guardians had just a 96 wRC+ against LHP (and again, it’s a great park and strong defense), only the bottom three in the projected Cleveland order struck out more than 20% of the time against LHP last year. The Mariners project a top 10 bullpen.
I do have J.P. Crawford (139 wRC+, .199 ISO v RHP since LY) projected as a top SS tonight in a weak market.
Cardinals @ Padres
This is pitching weather in a pitcher’s park folks. Kyle Gibson published a 19.5 K% last year, which is basically what he’s done in every season since he’s left the Twins. And he gets more than an average amount of ground balls (48.9%). LHBs smash him (wOBA & xwOBA > .340) about 20 to 30 points better than RHBs. The Padres had just a 101 wRC+ against RHP last year with Juan Soto, but the problem here is that there aren’t many strikeouts in this lineup, the Cardinals don’t have a good defense and Gibson isn’t any cheaper than pitchers with more upside. The St Louis bullpen projects middle of the road.
Matt Waldron was a bit of a swingman for the Fathers last year and only struck out 17.9% over 41.1 innings. In fact, he hasn’t eclipsed a 24% rate since low A-ball. All estimators were above his 4.33 ERA, but none of the non-FIP ones by more than half a run. He did have a 35.1 SwStr% this spring, but only struck out 11 of 51 batters. I’m not convinced, though he does have a strong defense in a great park and the Cardinals have jumped out to a team 26 wRC+ this year with a 28.9 K%. They did have a 106 mark against RHP last season. The San Diego bullpen projects below average.
Waldron does not offer a significant discount over other pitchers and I do not have any players from this game in my lineup at this time. Both teams have implied run lines exactly at four. I have a slight lean towards the Padres (-106) with the much better defense and comparable pitching and offense, but just don’t have enough confidence in Waldron to pull the trigger.
Yankees @ Diamondbacks
Luis Gil is back after totaling fewer than 30 professional innings since the start of the 2022 season and he is throwing smoke. Projection systems have him just under four and a half, but he struck out 23 of 61 batters this spring and forced his way into the rotation after the Gerrit Cole injury. I’m a lot more interested than the projection systems seem to be. It’s not the best spot. Arizona had a 99 wRC+ against RHP last year and should be better than that and we have a hitter friendly umpire in tonight’s game, but Gil is less than $7.5K on either site. He is my SP2 on DK tonight. The Yankees have a middle of the road defense and bullpen projection.
Ryne Nelson’s 5.31 ERA was almost perfectly in line with estimators last season, when he struck out just 15.5% of batters and allowed 11.6% Barrels/BBE. However, he’s been up a few mph too this spring and struck out 26 of 83 batters with just seven walks and three home runs. That’s a 4.13 FIP and a very useful pitcher. Juan Soto makes the Yankees better than their 89 wRC+ against RHP last year, but I have slight interest in Nelson for less than $7K. He’s not in my first draft lineup, but could see him surprising here in front of a great defense. Arizona projects a middling bullpen.
I do have a couple of Yankees in my DK lineup tonight. I consider Soto (170 wRC+, .274 ISO v RHP since LY) a top overall bat and took a shot with Oswaldo Cabrera (282 wRC+ this year) in need of a cheap outfielder. LHBs did exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Nelson last year.
I did have interest in the Under (10) in this game before learning of the umpire assignment. Larry Vanover has the sixth highest ERA (4.32) among umpires, though Swish Analytics suggests he may not be so hitter friendly. Conflicting information. Both offenses have been hot to start the season as well (team wRC+ > 130).
Giants @ Dodgers
Keaton Winn was a formidable arm last year over 42.1 innings and five spot starts. He struck out just 20.4% of batters faced, but with a 13.8 SwStr% and 4.7 BB% and 58% of his contact on the ground. He did allow a 48% hard hit rate, but that’s less concerning with all the ground balls and high swinging strike rate. All estimators were more than a quarter run below his 4.68 ERA, averaging around four and that doesn’t even take the SwStr% into account. The Dodgers smash (117 wRC+ v RHP last year + Ohtani), but the Giants may have the better defense and measure up in the bullpen.
James Paxton made 19 starts with estimators averaging in the very low fours. However, he faded post-break and missed September. Reports of his spring work have not been encouraging, striking out just six of 29 batters. Though not the proficiency of the Dodgers, the Giants roster a very dangerous lineup against LHP with the additions of Soler and Chapman.
I’m not sure how much Paxton has left and like Winn at least a little bit more. Without defensive and bullpen edges, do we really think the Dodger lineup makes up that much of a different here (Giants +190)? (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
We've gained 2.28% on the overnight with the Giants dropping to +172. From a DFS perspective, playing Winn would be really gutsy, but I don't absolutely hate it with cool weather (around 60 degrees). That said, Mookie Betts is my second best bat on the board, just behind Soto. Not in my lineup, I have some interest in Jorge Soler (181 wRC+, .404 ISO v LHP since LY).
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