Writeups on early games and one additional one of interest to start. Will update with additional games in the morning/afternoon. And I think I've finally figured out how to publish a new post without erasing the previous one. (I hope.)
UPDATE: All games now have complete writeups with DFS notes for Saturday.
Please consider donating (mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal) if the above information helped you, so that I can continue doing this and make this site more pleasant to look at.
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Brewers @ Mets
D.L. Hall makes his second major league start and first since 2022. His major league career consists of just 33 innings. His 29.0 K% over that span is lower than any minor league mark above low A ball, but his 7.6 BB% is also lower. Pitching Bot graded his four seamer (53.6%) a 78 out of 80 last year and his slider a 60, both pitches the Mets (96 wRC+ v LHP) struggled against last year. Projection systems have Hall around 3.50 on average this year, while he has the backing of a great bullpen. The Milwaukee pen probably goes from strong to middling with Williams on the IL.
It can’t get much worse than Luis Severino’s 6.65 ERA last season. His best estimator was a 4.78 SIERA, batters from either side smashed him above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA, while he struck out just 18.9% of batters, allowing 10.4% Barrels/BBE.
There is some good news here though. All projection systems see him about a quarter to one-third run below that SIERA mark from last season. That’s still not great news, but he struck out 12 of 53 batters this spring with just a single walk. The 11.1 SwStr% is nothing to cheer about, but it’s still two full points higher than last year and the velocity was there as well.
He also faces an offense that posted a 90 wRC+ against RHP last year and doesn’t have many LHBs (.422 wOBA, .385 xwOBA v Severino LY). The Mets defense should also be much improved, as should the bullpen with Diaz back.
Tigers @ White Sox
When Kenta Maeda is healthy, he’s generally pretty good. He’s posted a 3.73 xERA/4.06 FIP/3.98 xFIP over 210.2 innings since the start of the 2021 season. This comes with a 19.3 K-BB%. His problem has generally been staying on the active roster. There’s some concern about his velocity this spring and while he did strike out 24 of 75 batters, Maeda also surrendered three home runs. Both Maeda’s four seam and sinker graded below 50 (PitchingBot) last year, but were also only thrown one-third of the time combined. As long as the splitter (31.9%, 57 grade) and slider (30.6%, 57) are working, he should be fine. Especially against a White Sox offense that had an 81 wRC+ both at home and against RHP last year.
The Detroit defense was not good last year, but should be in 2024, while Fangraphs thinks they may be a top 10 bullpen (4.23 FIP).
If you think Maeda has a troublesome injury history, meet Mike Soroka. A strong 2019 Rookie of the Year candidate, he’s thrown just 44 innings of major league ball since. He wasn’t really injured last year, but was simply ineffective. A 4.42 xFIP in 87 AAA innings translated to all estimators above four and a half at the big league level (32.1 IP), so he became part of a package for a middle reliever. Most projection systems have him around four and a half again this year.
Soroka will be backed by a below average defense and the worst projected bullpen outside Coors (4.78 FIP Fangraphs).
Angels @ Orioles
While Griffin Canning's 4.32 ERA matches his 4.29 FIP (16.1 HR/FB), all other estimators were just a bit below four, though he did allow 9.8% Barrels/BBE. The Orioles had a 103 wRC+ both at home and against RHP last year, but Canning will likely face more LHBs than RHBs and had a reverse platoon split last year (.350 wOBA, .325 xwOBA). In fact, 16 of his 22 HRs were surrendered to RHBs. Considering that Camden is now where RH power goes to die, this should be a park upgrade for Canning. The defense and bullpen are unlikely to do him any favors though.
Much like Canning, Grayson Rodriguez had a 4.35 ERA with estimators a bit lower, but it was really a tale of two halves. While Rodriguez struggled in his first trip in the majors, when he returned after the All-Star break, his 2.58 ERA was just below a 2.76 FIP with a 17.1 K-BB% and a likely unsustainable 3.8% Barrels/BBE. None the less, Pitching Bot loved nearly all of his pitches. Still not yet a finished product, Grayson Rodriguez has all the talent in the world, but needs to figure out how to get LHBs out (wOBA & xwOBA > .350). Defense and bullpen are somewhat neutral.
These pitchers seem to have a wider range of outcomes than most. I did have some interest on the Angels above +150, but failed to pull the trigger, as there's some weather risk in this game as well.
Braves @ Phillies
While Max Fried struck out just two more batters than he walked this spring, the main concern was health after being held to just 77.2 innings last season. Fried was great when he was able to take the mound. Despite all estimators above a 2.55 ERA, none stretched higher than a 3.40 DRA. Max did everything you expect him to do. He struck out more than an average amount of batters with great control (19.9 K-BB%) and a ton of weak (32.7 Hard%) ground balls (57.7%). The Phillies had a 112 wRC+ at home and 108 v LHP last year (their LHBs hit LHP well, though Fried had virtually no split) and it's a tough park. The Atlanta defense is poor, but the bullpen is projected one of the best in the league via Fangraphs.
Once again, Aaron Nola's ERA (4.46) finished well above estimators (all non-FIP estimators below four). Was it the park? His 15.6 HR/FB (4.03 FIP) was actually lower at home (14.3). Was it the terrible defense? Nola's 19.8 K-BB% matches Fried's. The Braves had a 123 wRC+ both on the road and against RHP and present a more balanced lineup with Kelenic in it. Also like Fried, Nola had very little platoon split last year. The Philadelphia bullpen projects middle of the road. Prospective closer Alvardo had a really rough eighth inning yesterday and may not be available today.
Guardians @ Athletics
It was a successful rookie season for Tanner Bibee, even if estimators ran about a run above his 2.98 ERA. While he generated ground balls at just a 36.8% rate, Bibee also only allowed 6.1% Barrels/BBE with a very competent 16.4 K-BB%. PitchingBot really liked the changeup, a pitch the A's struggled with last year. Who are we kidding? They struggled with every pitch. The team had just an 89 wRC+ both at home and against RHP. In addition to that, it's cool weather in a tough park and the Cleveland defense just may be elite, while the bullpen projects middle of the road.
J.P. Sears threw 30 innings more than any Oakland pitcher last year and though they weren't necessarily good innings (4.54 ERA was below all estimators), he did show some promise and the park likely limited the damage from a 29.1 GB% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE somewhat. Although, his 14.2 HR/FB at home was higher than his road mark. Sears can miss some bats (11.3 SwStr%, 21.9 K%), but while the Cleveland offense generated just an 83 wRC+ against LHP last year, they only struck out 18.4% of the time. Their weakness (9.0 HR/FB v LHP and on the road) coincides with Sears's own. PitchingBot did really like his slider, a pitch the Guardians struggled with.
Expect a low scoring game, although the Oakland defense and bullpen are not strengths.
Nationals @ Reds
Patrick Corbin had a single estimator (4.76 xFIP) below five last year and RHBs (of which he’s projected to face nine) hammered out a .362 wOBA and .378 xwOBA against him. Corbin struck out just 15.7% of batters in 2023 and if the lineup the Nationals submitted on Opening Day is their LU going forward against RHP, it combines for -41 OAA defensively last year. Fangraphs also projects the Nationals as a bottom five bullpen (4.59 FIP).
Hunter Greene had a 4.82 ERA last season, but a 4.25 FIP was his only estimator above four (.339 BABIP, 14.2 HR/FB). But he pitches at GAB! Even taking that into consideration, his xERA was 3.79. Despite throwing fastball/slider over 90% of the time, Greene was actually better against LHBs last season (.321 wOBA, .285 xwOBA). On the negative side, the Cincinnati defense is nearly as bad as Washington’s and the bullpen is one of only four that projects worse (4.71).
Last year, the Cincinnati offense had a 99 wRC+ v LHP, while the Nationals had an 89 v RHP and those numbers don’t project to be much different this season.
As such, with Cincinnati being the most hitter friendly park in the league outside Coors, I see some value on the Reds (F5) -156 and Over the total of 9 (-118). (Follow RockyJade on Action Network.)
UPDATE: Weather appears hitter friend (70 degrees, 15 mph wind out to left) with both the total (10) and F5 line (-176) moving in our favor. That's a 2.83% increase from -156.
Blue Jays @ Rays
Yusei Kikuchi had an ugly spring. He faced 42 batters and five of them walloped home runs. He's had long ball issues throughout his career, allowing a 15.3 HR/FB and 9% Barrels/BBE last year behind a 90.5 mph EV. However, a competent 3.86 ERA was an exact match for his SIERA with additional estimators averaging only slightly higher (19.0 K-BB%). There's upside, but also some danger against an offense that smashed both at home (122 wRC+) and against LHP (120) last year, despite the pitcher friendly park. The Toronto defense is one of the best in the league and while the bullpen projects well overall, they're missing a couple of key cogs (Romero, Swanson) to start the year.
Zack Littell's 4.10 ERA matches his SIERA too, as well as almost all of his other estimators, though that work was split between the pen and rotation. From his first start until his last, his ERA (3.42) and FIP (3.69) actually improved. Littell walked just five of 312 batters in that span, which allows him to succeed with an average contact profile and strikeout rate just below 20%. The Tampa Bay defense is not as good as it's reputation in recent years, but the bullpen is still expected to be one of the best in the league. The Toronto offense had a 111 wRC+ on the road and 106 against RHP, surprisingly lacking power, something they hope Vlad Jr. will help correct with increased elevated contact. He's already homered this year.
Twins @ Royals
Joe Ryan had a home run problem last year. He allowed 32 of them (14.9 HR/FB), but only 38 barrels (a league average 8.7%). Expect regression this year. His 4.51 ERA was at least a run above his non-FIP estimators and exactly a run above his 3.51 ERA. Ryan's 24.2 K-BB% would have been second best in the majors last year had he qualified with one more out (161.2 IP). He generates 31.6% of his contact on the ground, however, so there's probably always going to be a few more home runs. This Kansas City lineup is probably better than the team 86 wRC+ they put up against RHP last year. The Minnesota defense is below average. The bullpen should be good, but is missing it's closer (Duran).
Seth Lugo successfully transitioned to a starting role last season with a 17.2 K-BB% and 3.57 ERA that was nearly a half run below estimators, A 4.45 xERA (44.2 Hard%, 9.6% Barrels/BBE) was a concern, but all other estimators were below four. In contrast to Ryan, just 19 of Lugo's 41 barrels left the yard last year. Oddly, Lugo's curveball (generally his money pitch) had a -0.7 RV/100 last year, though PitchingBot liked it's look late in the year. It was also a pitch the Twins struggled against. They did have a team 111 wRC+ against RHP last year, but are already missing Royce Lewis. The Kansas City lineup is near neutral defensively, while the bullpen projects near the bottom of the league.
Pirates @ Marlins
This is an interesting game. Jared Jones struck out no fewer than 26.3% at any minor league stop. He struck out 15 of 62 batters this spring with eight walks (4.52 xFIP), but didn't allow a single earned run (three unearned) over 16.1 innings. That was enough for the Pirates to slot him into the rotation. Projection systems have him with an ERA/FIP around four and a half. He's in a nice spot to open his career in Miami against an offense that had just a 91 wRC+ against RHP last year and doesn't figure to be much better this season. The Pittsburgh defense and bullpen may be above average too.
Ryan Weathers has been terrible in his major league opportunities so far. His 4.64 xERA last year was nearly a run below any other estimator and nearly two runs below his ERA (6.55). He did manage contact well (34.8 Hard%), but his sample size is nowhere near large enough to be sticky and the 5.4 K-BB% was far more concerning.
However, Weathers' velocity was up significantly this spring, as he struck out 21 of 70 batters with just four walks. He is a former first round pick and only 24 years-old. He could be interesting if this holds. The Pittsburgh offense appears more interesting than their 89 wRC+ against LHP last year, though McCutchen sits in favor of Suwinski today. The Marlins project a middling bullpen, but atrocious defense.
Cubs @ Rangers
An 8.5 HR/FB kept Kyle Hendricks's ERA (3.74) and FIP (3.81) more than one-third run below additional estimators. Even with a strong contact profile (85.2 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE, 31.5 Hard%), Hendricks emitted a 4.16 xERA. The strikeout rate was down to 16.1%, which even a 4.7 BB% shouldn't be able to save. There are four batters in the projected Texas lineup who exceeded a 28 K% against RHP last year, but this is also a team that slugged a 126 wRC+ at home and 114 against RHP. With a quality changeup (1.4 RV/100), Kyle was better against LHBs (.266 wOBA, .307 xwOBA) than RHBs (.329, .323). He gets some help from a strong defense. The bullpen is expected to be middling.
Strongly consider Wyatt Langford ($2.6K DK & FD) as a piece of your DFS lineup that gets you to a top pitcher and more expensive bats.
Cody Bradford served as a swing man last year and will fill that role this year as well while the top Texas pitchers are injured. His 5.30 ERA (67.2 LOB%) was above all estimators, which sat in the low to mid-fours. The peripherals were fine (21.8 K%, 5.1 BB%). The contact profile was not (14.1 HR/FB, 11.8% Barrels/BBE, 32.1 GB%). The Cubs hit LHP well last year (110 wRC+) and serve a solid DFS stack. Batters from either side of the plate sat around a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Bradford last year. The Texas defense is great, but the bullpen is a cause for concern.
Giants @ Padres
There is actually significant weather concerns in this game. Otherwise, both pitchers would be strong DFS choices.
Jordan Hicks struck out an astound 41.2% of the 68 batters he faced this spring. Anything close to that would blow projections for an ERA around four out of the water. Hicks has a career 24.5 K% and 11.7 BB% as a reliever and those numbers generally don't improve when transitioning to a starting role. His game is ground balls (58.3% last year) and the Giants should have the defense to help him succeed in that manner. The Padres had a 101 wRC+ against RHP with Juan Soto last year. Unless Tatis makes a big rebound, they're unlikely to improve on that. The San Francisco bullpen is also expected to be a strength.
As the lowest priced pitcher on the board, Hicks is likely a necessary SP2 (should the game play) in order to get some more expensive bats (and a top starter on DK).
Dylan Cease took a step backward last year. His 4.58 ERA was about half a run above his average estimators, but walk issues returned (10.1%). While his slider may have been the best pitch in the game in 2022, it was worth a mere (0.8 RV/100) and graded as an average pitch by PitchingBot last year. Cease still struck out 27.3% of batters and gets a park upgrade this year. The Giants (94 wRC+ v RHP) struck out quite a bit last year (24.1% against RHP) and may do so again. With a great defense behind him too, Cease is one of the top two pitchers on the slate tonight, as price would dictate, but I have him slightly behind Logan Gilbert even before rain concerns. The San Diego bullpen projects near the bottom of the league.
Although I'll likely omit, I do have some interest in the Under in this game should we get positive clarification on the weather. It will still likely be very pitcher friendly.
Yankees @ Astros
We know what Marcus Stroman is by now. He'll generate ground balls (57.1% last year) and strike out enough batters to be relevant (20.9%). His 3.95 ERA was in line with estimators. Though he probably gets a defensive downgrade, Stroman should continue being what he's always been, but faces a tough spot against a Houston offense that had a 107 wRC+ and 20.5 K% against RHP last year. That they're predominantly right-handed doesn't help Stroman at all (.311 wOBA, .316 xwOBA v RHB). Yordan Alvarez (184 wRC+, .333 ISO v RHP) is a top bat if you can afford him. Yanier Diaz (150, .292) is a nice value play. The Yankee pen projects among the bottom half of the league.
Hunter Brown declined in just about every way you can imagine in the second half of last season. While he finished with a 5.09 ERA, estimators were a run better. The 21 HR/FB should regress substantially, but he also allowed 10.9% Barrels/BBE, despite keeping 52.4% of his contact on the ground. The projected Houston lineup is neutral defensively. The bullpen projects as one of the best in the league. The Yankees had an 89 wRC+ against RHP last year, but forget about that. The projected lineup was much better than that. Soto and Judge are obviously top bats for those who can afford them.
Rockies @ Diamondbacks
This one is fairly simple. Neither of these pitchers finished the season in their team's rotation. Both averaged estimators above five. Both had strikeout rates below 17%. Both confirmed lineups are very strong defensively and neither offense excelled against LHP.
However, Tommy Henry was slightly better than Austin Gomber, who allowed batters from either side of the plate a wOBA and xwOBA above .340 last year. Henry's highest mark against was a .348 wOBA against same-handed batters, of which the Rockies have few. The Rockies also had a much worse 76 wRC+ on the road and 74 wRC+ against LHP with just about the same lineup.
The Diamondbacks had just a 92 wRC+ against LHP, but should be better this season with the addition of Suarez and ascendancy of Moreno behind the plate. They also get to face the worst projected pen in the majors (4.97 FIP Fangraphs). Stack up your Diamondbacks, as they are one of two teams above a five implied runs tonight and the only one without significant weather related risk.
Cardinals @ Dodgers
This game has similar weather related risk to San Diego. It also stars two pitchers that nobody seems to be able to figure out, except hitters. If they do play, the weather should be pitcher friendly (< 60 degrees).
Lance Lynn struck out 23.6% of batters last season. A bit down from recent years, but fine. Lance Lynn had a 19.0 HR/FB and allowed 10.4% Barrels/BBE on a 35.6 GB%. That is most definitely not fine. The Dodgers (119 wRC+ at home) smash RHP (117). They exceeded a 15 HR/FB at home last year. While Lynn's 5.73 ERA was above all estimators, the lowest was still a 4.33 SIERA. Lance Lynn is going to throw his fastballs (sinker, four seam, cutter) around 80% of the time. It really doesn't matter because the Dodgers smash most pitches, but they really smash fastballs.
The Cardinals project a middling bullpen, but their defense went from best in 2022 to almost worst last year and my be lacking again. The Dodgers are the other team above five implied runs on this six game night slate. Stack 'em up, weather permitting.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a more curious case. He struggled this spring, though he did strike out 14 of 47 batters without a home run. He struggled in his first start. Projection systems have him around a quarter of a run below four. There is sometimes an adjustment period for foreign pitchers to the MLB baseball, which is different from the baseball in Japan (and sometimes even different from other major league baseballs). Cold and rain are considered pitcher friendly, but may not help Yamamoto master his grips. The infield defense may not help either and the Cardinals have a functional lineup (106 wRC+ v RHP last year). They are a reasonably contrarian stacking option for those who like to embrace risk.
Red Sox @ Mariners
Kutter Crawford's 4.04 ERA was in line with estimators, though his xERA was only 3.28 without anything standing out in his contact profile. An 18.8 K-BB% is nothing to sneeze at, but PitchingBot didn't really love Kutter's cutter, which he utilized second most (28.3%), only throwing his four seam fastball more. Seattle smashed both cutters and fastballs last year. That could be problematic, along with maybe the worst defense in the league, but batters from either side of the plate were below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Crawford last year and the Seattle projected lineup strikes out at a more than average rate against RHP. This is also obviously a substantial park upgrade for Crawford. Rain concerns may force DFS players to take a strong look at him for less than $8K. The Boston bullpen projects bottom third of the league via Fangraphs.
This is the side of the matchup I'm most interested in. A 3.85 FIP was the estimator furthest removed from Logan Gilbert's 3.73 ERA. With a 19.9 K-BB%, this is a quality pitcher with the potential to be even better. Late season grades for both his slider and splitter were strong and combined for 2.4 RV/100 via Statcast. Boston projects a balanced lineup, so Gilbert's reverse split won't matter much, though even RHBs only topped out at a .306 xwOBA. The young pitcher also has a strong defense and bullpen behind him in a prominent pitcher's park.
Logan Gilbert is my top rated daily fantasy pitcher on Saturday night, slightly ahead of Dylan Cease even before rain concerns. I also like the Red Sox to go Under 3.5 runs, which is even money at DraftKings as of this writing, despite being much higher on other sites. (Follow RocjyJade on Action Network).
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