Friday brings us a smaller, eight game Daily Fantasy slate with 10 games overall due to the two postponements, which will be made up this afternoon. Just a copy and paste from Thursday on those two. I'll attempt to add some stats next week. Clearly, I'm still trying to figure out this blogging software, as I accidentally erased the Opening Day post when trying to create this one.
Both Kyle Freeland and Shane Bieber came into Opening Day with increased velocity this spring. The latter was magnificent, while the former sustained a most of the velocity increase, but was throwing them right down the pipe and got shelled.
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Brewers @ Mets
Freddy Peralta has moved into Ace position for the Brewers this year. While his 3.86 ERA was a near perfect match for a 3.85 FIP (16 HR/FB), other estimators were around three and a half, including a 3.33 xERA with 25 of 36 barrels leaving the park.
Offense was not a major impediment of the Mets last year (103 wRC+). They return nearly the same lineup with J.D. Martinez starting the year in the minors.
Without Devin Williams for the first half of the season, a bullpen Fangraphs still projects among the top quarter of the league takes an early season hit.
Jose Quintana was far better than expected over 75 innings for the Mets last year (3.57 ERA). However, he had just a 6.0 HR/FB (3.52 FIP) and even with 5.1% Barrels/BBE and just a 32% hard hit rate, his xERA sat at 4.48. Non-contact inclusive estimators were even higher. Quintana has struck out 18 of 74 batters this spring (24.3%), but has also walked nine and hit one.
The Brewers had just a 98 wRC+ against LHP last year, but did add Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez.
The bullpen should be better with Diaz back. Fangraphs projects it just outside the top 10.
Local beat writers for the Mets note that this could be a washout. The early forecast is not encouraging.
Braves @ Phillies
Spencer Strider’s 3.86 ERA was the product of a .316 BABIP, 70.3 LOB% and 12.2 HR/FB. While none of these numbers were egregious, all are a bit off the norm of things that are considered less under a pitcher’s control than strikeouts and walks and are candidates for regression. The worst of Strider’s estimators was a 3.06 DRA. Strider did have a 30 point wOBA/xwOBA split, favoring LHBs, which should be less of an issue against a balanced Philadelphia lineup. Schwaber (126 wRC+ v RHP 2023) and Harper (144) are key threats, though even the lesser split produced a wOBA & xwOBA less than .300.
Strider is the highest upside DFS pitcher on the board and the addition of a curveball could make him even more lethal, even if this isn’t the best of matchups.
Zach Wheeler’s 3.61 ERA was above, but marginally in line with estimators ranging from 3.15 (FIP) to 3.54 xFIP. His 71.3 LOB% was a few points below his career rate, which explains the small gap. Wheeler also produced a large split last year (LHBs .311 wOBA, .315 xwOBA) and will also face a balanced lineup with the main threat being Olson (178) from the left side, but don’t sleep on Harris (.191 ISO v RHP). None the less, the Braves hammered RHP for a 123 wRC+ (the same as their number in home games) with virtually the same lineup.
Wheeler’s velocity was down a bit this spring, but there’s really no reason for him to waste his bullets in March. Not concerned.
Both teams are at the bottom of the league defensively. Atlanta projects the second best pen in the league by FIP (4.07), while Philadelphia is somewhere in the middle (4.31), but projects the most fWAR.
Blue Jays @ Rays
After a slow start to last season and some concern about reduced velocity, Chris Bassitt’s 3.60 ERA ended up right around his career average. However, estimators ranged from a 4.00 DRA to a 4.28 FIP. The good news is that Bassitt’s peripherals have been about a half run above his estimators for most his career and his 15.4 K-BB% was less than a point removed from his results in three of the previous four years.
The Rays are also lacking LHBs who can exploit Bassitt’s 40 points xwOBA and 102 point wOBA split last year, though they did pummel RHP (117 wRC+) at home (122 wRC+) last season.
Aaron Civale had a bloated 5.36 ERA in 10 starts, but a 3.63 FIP and 3.26 xFIP. Strangely, his 3.46 ERA was below estimators ranging from a 3.57 FIP (9.0 HR/FB, 6.6% Barrels/BBE) and 4.47 DRA. Without much of a split (batters from either side were between a .285 and .307 wOBA and xwOBA last year), a predominantly right-handed Toronto lineup will neither help, nor hurt Civale much here.
The Rays generally have a strong defense, but the Blue Jays may be better here. Tampa Bay has the best bullpen projection in the league though (4.03 FIP) with the Blue Jays not far behind (4.18).
Both pitchers face tough lineups, but may be listed too cheaply in a pitcher friendly environment.
Pirates @ Marlins
Martin Perez struck out 16 of 59 batters (16.9 K-BB%), despite his velocity being down a mile and a half per hour this spring. Considering he’s only ever approached a 20% strikeout rate once in his entire career (16 K%) and has never had a double digit SwStr%, it’s unlikely he’s found something new at 33 years old. His 4.45 ERA was more than one-third run below all of his estimators last year and he will be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup (Marlins 103 wRC+ at home & v LHP last year), who had a wOBA and xwOBA above .340 against Perez last season.
Injuries moved former top prospect A.J. Puk to the bullpen, but the Marlins have been rewarded with a 33.9 K-BB% (30 SwStr%) over 13.2 spring innings in four starts this spring. Puk’s 3.97 ERA in relief last year (56.2 IP) was the result of 10 of his 12 Barrels allowed leaving the park last year. His worst non-FIP estimator was a 3.10 ERA. The question early will be how long he can hold his velocity for. PitchingBot graded his four-seamer (51% usage) at 75 out of 80 last year and his slider (42.6%) at 63. Puk will also be facing a predominantly right-handed LU and also had a rather large split last year (RHBs .321 wOBA, .292 xwOBA), but only because he dominated LHBs (.252, .226). The Pirates were one of the worst hitting teams against sliders last year.
The Pirates project an improved defense, while the Marlins had and are likely to continue to have one of the worst in the league. Fangraphs also projects Pittsburgh to have the slightly better bullpen (4.24 FIP to 4.33).
The only thing stopping RH Miami bats from being a strong DFS option is a tough park. Jake Burger had a 142 wRC+ and .323 ISO v LHP last year.
Yankees @ Astros
Frankly, Carlos Rodon stunk in an injury shortened first season with the Yankees. A 4.87 SIERA was his only estimator below five, his strikeout rate was league average (22.4%) with a 9.8 BB% and he surrendered 12.2% Barrels/BBE (91.6 mph EV). None of it was good and it was more of the same (20.6 K%, 5.70 FIP, 5.40 xFIP) with continued reduced velocity in 19.1 spring innings. Batters from both sides smashed him (> .320 wOBA & xwOBA) and both of Houston’s LHBs exceeded a 140 wRC+ against LHP last year.
This is a prime DFS stacking spot and everyone likely knows it.
Christian Javier can be dominant, but at 88.4% fastball/slider, needs another strong offering to offset LHBs (.350 wOBA last year). It’s not great news that Statcast brings that down to a .322 xwOBA because it also brings RHBs up to a .329 xwOBA against him too. Javier struck out at least eight batters six times last year, but only 23.1% with a 9.0% walk rate. Most estimators were in agreement with his 4.56 ERA as a result. While the Yankees had just an 89 wRC+ against RHP last year, they did add some guy named Soto (166 wRC+, .273 ISO v RHP).
Defenses are about neutral in this one, but whereas the Houston bullpen projects near the top of the league (4.18), the Yankees may be a bottom half of the league pen this year (4.34). Another aspect that favors Houston stacks.
The price on Houston also appears far too cheap in this game (follow RockyJade on Action Network).
Rockies @ Diamondbacks
A 4.79 FIP (8.8 HR/FB) was Cal Quantrill’s only estimator below a 5.24 ERA. That’s unlikely to improve in Colorado. LHBs exceeded a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while Statcast drives RHBs .311 wOBA up 50 points too. Quantrill threw his sinker and cutter nearly two-thirds of the time and both graded below 40 via Pitching Bot. The only good news is that Arizona struggled against fastballs post-break and the Colorado defense projects strongly. Though, with Fangraphs projecting the worst bullpen in the league in Colorado (4.97 FIP), this is another obvious stacking spot.
Merrill Kelly is a solid, yet unspectacular innings eater. He averaged 24 batters faced last year and exactly six innings over the last two seasons. His 3.29 ERA was a bit lower than estimators that were all within one-fifth of a run of four, but that’s a pretty solid pitcher, who struck out 25.9% of batters last year, a career high. That the Rockies were an atrocious road team last year (76 wRC+) and only two batters in the projected lineup exceeded a 100 wRC+ or .170 ISO vs RHP makes Kelly a strong DFS option, even as one of the most expensive pitchers on the board. Although Kelly did have a small split favoring LHBs, the Rockies have very few of them.
Further justifying Kelly’s presence in your DFS lineup is a cutter that graded 67 by Pitching Bot and had a 2.5 RV/100 via Statcast. The Rockies were one of the worst offenses against changeups too.
The Diamondbacks also have one of the best defenses in the league with a middling bullpen projection via Fangraphs (4.25).
Guardians @ Athletics
Logan Allen stranded 78.8% of runners last season, pushing his 3.81 ERA about a half run below estimators for a guy who was pretty much an average pitcher in all aspects last season. A defense that was 15 OAA via Statcast might have had something to do with that, while the projected lineup was even better defensively. In fact, this might be the best defense in the league.
Allen gets a significant park upgrade against an offense that had just an 89 wRC+ at home and vs LHP last season with only two players in their projected lineup exceeding a 99 wRC+ against southpaws last season.
Logan Allen is a matchup value DFS play in this spot where he should find some strikeouts.
Splitting time between rotation and bullpen last year, Ross Stripling produced 5.36 ERA that was in line with contact inclusive estimators (22 HR/FB, 10.2% Barrels/BBE), but a run above contact neutral ones (14.2 K-BB%). Should he be able to temper the contact issues, well, he still has an awful defense and bullpen behind him, though the Cleveland bullpen only projects a FIP 0.13 runs better (Fangraphs).
With batters from either side of the plate above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Stripling, DFS players may be able to find some value in this Cleveland lineup, despite the difficult park. Both Naylors, along with Jose Ramirez, were above a 125 wRC+ against RHP last year.
With projections for these starting pitchers and bullpens not being very far apart and only defense separating them by a wide margin here, there may be some value on the home dog at +125 or higher (follow RockyJade on the Action Network).
That may sound contradictory, but everything has a price at which it has some value.
Red Sox @ Mariners
A sweeper and better fastball location (up) revitalized Nick Pivetta’s career last season and for once, it actually stuck for the remainder of the season. Over his last 86 innings, Pivetta struck out 36.5% of batters (14.9 SwStr%) and for the season, ever one of his estimators was below his 4.04 ERA. He did have some issues against LHBs (.331 wOBA, .324 xwOBA), but will likely be facing a balanced lineup with one of the largest park upgrades a pitcher can get going from Seattle to Boston.
The park helps make up for an atrocious defense behind Nick Pivetta, giving him quite a bit of upside at a reasonable price.
If there’s a negative concerning George Kirby, it might be that he throws too many strikes, but a 2.5 BB% pushed him towards a 20.2 K-BB% and nearly six innings per start in his rookie season. Though estimators were about one-third of a run above his 3.35 ERA on average, he didn’t really suffer much from contact issues (40.9 Hard%) with a favorable park and defense behind him. Kirby had virtually no split with every one of his pitches grading above 60 via Pitching Bot.
With the workload giving him a solid floor, Kirby is a solid DFS choice against a marginal offense (100 wRC+ v RHP last year) under favorable conditions.
The Seattle bullpen also projects much better than Boston (4.18 FIP to 4.44).
Giants @ Padres
Kyle Harrison made his MLB debut last year after striking out 35.6% of AAA batters over 65.2 IP. He wasn’t quite that productive in 34.2 MLB innings (23.8%), but did cut his walk rate from 16.3% to 7.5%. The problem was a 15.4 HR/FB and 9.3% Barrels/BBE, pushing his SIERA and xERA up to 4.45. Additional estimators were above five with just a 26.8 GB%. He could be more successful with the fly ball heavy approach in some of these tough west coast parks, especially shutting down RHBs (.274 wOBA, .289 xwOBA), but averaged less than five innings per start last year. He’s likely to face a San Diego lineup batting almost entirely from that side, though they were second in baseball with a 123 wRC+ against southpaws last year.
Considering Harrison’s contact issues, you can play some power bats against him and expect low ownership. Kim, Machado, Campusano and Tatis exceeded a .200 ISO against LHP last year.
Pitching around injuries, Joe Musgrove made just 17 starts last year, though there was nothing wrong with the production. A 3.77 SIERA was the worst of his estimator, as he struck out 24.3% of batters against a 5.3 BB% and just a 33.5% hard hit rate (5.1% Barrels/BBE). Throwing a curveball, changeup and cutter, Musgrove was a reverse platooner last year (LHBs < .265 wOBA & xwOBA) and will likely face a balanced lineup with some potency and is as good as most other high priced pitchers in a favorable park.
Both teams have strong defenses, but the San Francisco bullpen projects a quarter of a run better via Fangraphs FIP.
A rock steady pitcher against a talented, but erratic one facing the second best offense vs LHP last year should give a healthy edge to the home team before bullpens kick in (follow RockyJade on Action Network).
Cardinals @ Dodgers
With a 25.1 K% (16.4 K-BB%), Zack Thompson had estimators running a bit below a 4.48 ERA. There were just two problems. All of those increased when he moved from the pen to the rotation late in the season and a 4.55 xERA was the lone dissenter (90.3 mph EV). RHBs exceeded a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while two of the three projected LH Dodger bats are named Ohtani and Freeman. Considering the Dodgers had a 119 wRC+ at home and 114 wRC+ v LHP and the St Louis defense went from best to one of the worst last year, the home team could make quick work of this young man. With a middling bullpen projection from Fangraphs as well (4.24 FIP), the Dodgers are a super obvious DFS stack.
The Dodgers expect big things from the flame throwing Bobby Miller, but he only struck out 23.6% of batters last year and just nine of 56 this spring. A 6.3 BB% and just 6.0% Barrels/BBE supported a solid overall profile. His 3.76 ERA was in line with estimators, none of which reached four.
This is already a solid pitcher with upside (all of his pitches graded 59 or better via PitchingBot), but there are other pitchers to like more on this slate considering the high price and against a decent offense (106 wRC+ v RHP last year) that doesn’t strike out a lot (21.1% v RHP). The Dodger defense (outfield good, infield bad) and bullpen (4.25 FIP projection) should be around average.
Miller has the potential for greatness, but was merely good last year. At a heavy price (+195), the Cardinals may have some value here (follow RockyJade on Action Network).
Please consider donating (mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal) if the above information helped you, so that I can continue doing this and make this site more pleasant to look at.
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