Wednesday 10/1 Wild Card Game Twos Thoughts & Analysis

Tigers @ Guardians

Both of these pitchers finished the season pitching their best ball of the year down the stretch. For Casey Mize, he struck out exactly eight in three of his last four, increasing slider usage (23.3% vs 15.3% season) and decreasing curveball usage (6.3% vs 14.3%). This was not a circumstance of facing more RHBs either (Yankees, Guardians, Braves and Red Sox). Mize flashed a 14.2 SwStr% over this stretch with slight improvement in his pitch modeling from around average to a bit above average. The ironic thing is that his curveball showed the most improvement via grading.

Gone are the ground balls (49% last year vs 38.7%) this year, but in their place, Mize’s K-BB rises from 10.8% in 2024 to a career best 16.4% this season. This allowed him to drop his xERA by over a run (4.72 to 3.70), despite a higher rate of barrels this year (9.1%). His 3.87 ERA was within one-fifth of a run of all estimators with only his Bot ERA (4.04) sneaking above four.

He will face Cleveland’s RHP lineup with eight LHBs most likely. It’s better than their numbers against LHP, but not much with just a 90 wRC+ on the season and the projected lineup averaging 104, though fairly weak after the first four batters are all at 115 or higher.

With their backs now against the wall, Tanner Bibee will be the more scrutinized pitcher in this game, but he also ended the season with just four runs over his last 27.2 innings and then a 24.4 K-BB% over his last three. That should earn him some trust from his manager, even if season numbers are still lacking. Bibee’s 14.2 K-BB% was a career low and 5.9 point dropoff from last season with a career high 8.0% Barrels/BBE, despite a career low 36.6 HardHit%. The result was that his 3.75 xERA from last year actually dropped to 3.65 this year. Bibee generated far more ground balls (44.7%) than he did in either of his first two seasons (36.8%, 34.6%).

The xERA was Bibee’s best estimator by nearly one-quarter of a run, though only a 4.34 FIP exceeded his 4.24 ERA. There may have been a bit of misfortune in 27 of his 43 barrels leaving the park, especially with Progressive Field crippling RH power, while keeping LHBs below average too (93 Home Run Factor via Statcast 3-year).

Bibee will likely see the same Detroit lineup that was run out against Gavin Williams, faltering during the second half of the year, but still with an average wRC+ of 102 with a .175 ISO among the projected nine.

As we noted yesterday, both Progressive and Wrigley are tied with several other parks for the second most negative run environment in the league (94 Run Factor Statcast 3-year) and it became a bit more pitcher friendly with winds blowing in on Tuesday. Well, expect the same wind conditions with temperatures around five to 10 degrees cooler (mid-60s) and a much more neutral umpire in Adam Beck (Shane Livensparger’s hitter’s lean really showed on Tuesday).

The above is why we see a similar game total to Tuesday and I don’t disagree. I think the Guardians are also rightly favored by a slight amount (-120 ish). From a daily fantasy standpoint, Mize is one of the worst at holding runners, though Dingler has been just as strong at throwing them out, making it a neutral spot in that aspect. Bibee and Naylor are both a bit better than average at their jobs in the running game. We don’t have any standouts in the pitch matchup run value analysis with Jose Ramirez gaining the most positive grade and almost everybody else except Arias and Kayfus slightly in the positive.

Due to the environment and conditions, I don’t really like any bats here. Ramirez and Kwan may be the most usable with Valera (139 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP) potentially having some value if in the two hole. Interesting to note that each pitcher had a bit of a reverse split (very small), but only Mize held that when considering xwOBA as well.

I have Mize graded as a perfectly middling pitcher on this DFS board and that has some value as the third lowest priced DraftKings arm. I’m certainly going to consider him as an SP2 arm. Bibee is tied for my second overall ranking and perhaps the best value on the board on either site, though we have to be concerned about an early pull. If he is on his game though, Vogt will probably let him go, while the conditions and a strong defensive lineup should help him.

Padres @ Cubs

Dylan Cease is yet another pitcher who was pitching his best ball down the stretch. Or, I probably should amend that to say getting his best results. His 18.5 K-BB% over his last four starts is actually down 1.4 points from his season mark (though he did allow just one barrel with a 22.8 HardHit%), but Cease allowed just seven runs over 22 innings by increasing his strand rate 10 points (79.7% vs 69% on the year). Cease still finished the season with a 4.55 ERA nearly a run above his worst non-pitch modeling estimator (3.47 xERA – 3.58 SIERA). His 3.81 Bot ERA and 107 Pitching+ are still the second best numbers on the board today. Cease also finished with a BABIP allowed 50 points above what the Padres allowed as a team this year. Someone may be getting a great deal on him next season.

The Cubs will likely be running out the same lineup as Tuesday. A strong overall lineup, averaging a 115 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP and though the team struggled post-break, the projected nine also averaged a 118 wRC+ in September and we certainly can say Seiya Suzuki is out of his slump. Cease had about a 20 to 30 point standard split this season with LHBs around a league average wOBA and xwOBA against him.

Shota Imanaga CERTAINLY did not finish his season on the best note. He allowed 12 home runs and 17 barrels (15.9%) over his last 34.2 innings (139 batters faced). Perhaps that’s why the Cubs are using an opener for him on Wednesday. Although, considering the Padres lined up five LHBs for Boyd on Tuesday, I don’t see the necessity. However, we have to keep in mind the trick Craig Counsel pulled with the Brewers a few years ago when he sent Wade Miley out to start the game and face only a single Dodger before being pulled and started the next day normally (I think that’s right at least). Who’s to say Imanaga even pitches at all? Again though, it would seem more advantageous to throw a LHP against this offense.

While Imanaga perfectly matches his 3.73 ERA with his 3.73 Bot ERA, all other estimators were more than half a run higher because of the .219 BABIP and 81.5 LOB%. An extreme fly ball pitcher with a 12.7 IFFB% is supposed to have a meaningfully lower BABIP, but more in the -260 range and there’s no justification for the strand rate.

However, perhaps the conditions, similar to Tuesday, maybe a bit cooler with a little bit of wind, will help Imanaga here. Although it didn’t keep the ball from leaving the park in Game One. Corey Blaser is also a pitching leaning umpire. Not to an extreme, but the most pitcher leaning on the slate, helping both pitchers in an already negative run environment.

Once again, I’m aligned with the market on this game and also the total with potentially pitcher friendly conditions. This is not a good running spot for either team. Imanaga has been one of the best holders in the league with Kelly a solid thrower. On the other side, both Cease and Fermin have been very effective against steal attempts. Once again here, nobody really pops as having a strong pitch run value matchup against the opposing pitcher, though Fermin and more surprisingly, Machado, come up as strong negatives. Machado did not hit curveballs well this year.

Again, bats are not my thing in this game and really only Michael Busch seems like a decent value. Don’t worry, we have a pair of hittable pitchers coming up. Cease is the pitcher I have tied for my second overall ranking with Bibee. A bit more expensive and therefore a bit less valuable, but still a top three value for me on either site. The overall numbers tell me that Imanaga is a fine middle of the board pitcher here, similar to Mize, but I can’t endorse it after what I just wrote.

Bullpen stats L30 days (I wrote more about post-season bullpens in general yesterday)...

Red Sox @ Yankees

Brayan Bello allowed 17 runs (15 earned) over his last 25 innings with just a 3.6 K-BB% and no more than four strikeouts in any of those five starts. The contact profile was fine (7.1% Barrels/BBE, 39.3 HardHit%), but Bello set a new career low with just a 9.2 K-BB%, keeping all of his estimators above four and all of his non-FIP estimators more than a run above a 3.35 ERA (nine of 71 runs unearned).

From a wOBA standpoint, he had a 20 point split with batters from either side of the plate at least a bit below average, but Statcast drives LHBs up to a .345 xwOBA against him. Potentially a problem when he’s likely to face six LHBs + Judge and Stanton here. A projected lineup that will strike out a bit (25.2% avg), but also averages a whopping 127 wRC+ and .246 ISO vs RHP this season. In fact, Volpe’s .187 ISO against RHP is lowest in the lineup and he homered off Crochett on Tuesday.

Carlos Rodon fnished up his season with the worst version of a quality start (three in six), the first time he’d allowed more than two runs in 10 starts, but his 19.4 K-BB% over his last four starts may be the more important number after a 6.7 K-BB% over his previous seven. This was certainly the best of Rodon’s three Yankee seasons from a contact profile perspective with his first hard hit rate below 40% (38.9%) and his first single digit barrel rate (7.5%), even if his 16.5 K-BB% is 2.3 points lower than last year.

As you might expect, Rodon’s 3.09 ERA is a bit of a farce (228 BABIP, seven of 74 runs unearned), though with league average pitch modeling, no other estimators actually reach four. Rodon had you standard LHP splits, yet holding batters from either side of the plate below a .295 wOBA and xwOBA. He’ll likely face the same Boston lineup as Fried did. An average 114 wRC+ and .161 ISO against southpaws is still pretty good (22.2 K%), even if it pales in comparison to the Yankees.

Like our first two parks, a bit cooler on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium with temperatures about 10 degrees cooler, perhaps in the low 60s, turns a neutral environment into a slightly pitcher friendly one, depending on which way the wind blows. However, Scott Barry, who may be the most hitter friendly umpire in the league, could neutralize all that.

I’ve now outpaced the games and have to wait for the bottom of the ninth to complete before we see a Game Two market….

And we’re back. I loaded up a play on this total at 7 (-108) on DraftKings. They changed the odds on me just as I was pressing the Place button, which immediately changed to accept new odds and placed the new bet at 7.5 (-113). Well, screw me, but I still like 7.5 (-110) on FanDuel. The ump gives back what the weather takes away and this is one good offense against a good pitcher, but also a great offense against a below average one. I don’t hate Yankee bets to win the series here either. I actually played them to lose the first game and win the series at +450 on DK.

Over 7.5 (-110) FD  1.1u (I don’t expect EVERY WC game to run under.

Both of these pitchers can be run on, more so Rodon, who would have a neutral catcher arm in either Rice or Wells. Luis Torrens was the only catcher better than Narvaez at throwing out base runners though. We have one bat popping extremely strongly in the pitch run value matchups and it’s exactly who you think it is. It’s actually surprising to find most batters slightly negative with Nick Sogard the most negative.

Judge, Rice, Grisham, Refsnyder and Gonazalez are my top bats and values from this game. Bello is my lowest ranked pitcher on the board. Rodon is more middle of the board, but over-priced above $9K.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Reds @ Dodgers

Zack Littell has the worst pitch modeling on the board and all estimators were more than half a run above his 3.81 ERA (.249 BABIP, 81.2 LOB%). He has elite control (4.2 BB%), which allows him to post a league average K-BB (12.9%) with just a 17.1 K% and things might not even be entirely that bad with the 9.9% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed. In 22 starts for Tampa Bay, 26 of 47 barrels left the yard in a power friendly park. In 10 starts for Cincinnati, he cut his barrel rate to 6.5%, but 10 of 11 left the park in the most power friendly environment in the league. In fact, maintaining his batted ball profile with the Reds, along with a 13.5 K-BB% could make him a reasonably useful pitcher, but can you believe his ERA rose to 4.39 since the trade, while his BABIP dropped more than 20 points (.228). He just stopped stranding runners (68.9%).

Littell had a bit of a reverse split, but with batters from either side of the plate above a .300 wOBA, capping at a .350 xwOBA for RHBs. That said, a projected Dodger lineup, which should be the same as Tuesday night, averages a 117 wRC+ and .205 ISO vs RHP this year and should be able to handle Littell.

Most of this is just trivial, but still some amazing patterns. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (I type out the full name once for the post-season) allowed a single run or less in each of his last five starts. He allowed a single run in each of the first three, but finished with two shutout outings. After a four game stretch where he struck out six batters each time out, he struck out exactly 10 in each of his next three before seven in each of his last two. He had a three game stretch allowing four hits each, followed by one hit allowed in three straight games before finishing the season in a start with…four hits. Perhaps most importantly, he finished the season two outs shy of seven straight quality starts (because he walked six Giants) and completed at least seven innings in four of those starts.

Increasing his workload and becoming the work horse for this team, while retaining a 20.8 K-BB% this season is sure to get Yamamoto some Cy Young attention, likely a top five vote getter. Add in the contact profile (52.8 GB%, 5.7% Barrels/BBE) and his 2.73 xERA is only a quarter run removed from a 2.49 ERA, though the .243 BABIP is probably not sustainable and more than 40 points below what the Dodger defense allowed. Yamamoto will likely be facing a slightly different lineup than Snell, but has held batters from either side of the plate to no higher than a .290 wOBA or xwOBA with a 40 to 50 point reverse split.

As mentioned yesterday, Dodger Stadium is the most positive run environment on the board (102 Park Run Factor) and one of the most power friendly parks in the league with pretty stable weather patterns. Lance Barrett is a fairly neutral umpire. Also, if you recall, I gave the Dodger bullpen about a half run boost over their L30 days numbers for adding Glasnow, Sheehan and Sasaki, if needed.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting a line on this game until around midnight and I’m not waiting that long. Suffice to say, I have the Dodgers pretty heavily favored (around -170 for the F5, near -190 full game) and still think I might be light.

The Dodgers can run if they want with Littell and Stephenson each a bit below average at holding and throwing out runners. Yamamoto is a decent holder and Rortvedt a neutral thrower (though Smith is on the roster). Ohtani, Freeman, Betts and Muncy all pop strongly against Littell’s arsenal, much of it on the splitter. The bottom of each lineup, along with Marte grade horribly.

Ohtani is far and away the top bat in this game and on the board. Only Judge comes even relatively close. Muncy and Betts are also strong bats and values, just a tier behind with Freeman, Teoscar and Pages looking like decent or better values here too. I have Littell barely ahead of Bello and easily the second worst pitcher and value on the board. Yamamoto is the top overall arm and most expensive pitcher. He’s my second favorite FanDuel value, but more accurately priced on DraftKings.