One game, different league, but same city and similar weather for Wednesday. Your NLCS Game Three umpire is the fairly neutral Marvin Hudson.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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Dodgers @ Mets
While Walker Buehler has shown flashes of competence late in the season, those were mostly against poor offenses (Rockies, Angels). He failed to strike out more batters than he walked against the Braves and Padres in two of his last three starts. Buehler’s 2024 season was nothing short of disastrous. That his 13.1 K-BB% over his last six starts was an improvement on his season rate (10.5%) should be the first indicator, even with a favorable contact profile (6.9% Barrels/BBE, 36 HardHit%). It’s somewhat unfortunate that he allowed 16 home runs on 17 barrels, which nearly matches his 5.54 FIP to a 5.38 ERA with all other estimators being more than half a run, but less than a full run lower. If we’re calling that a positive, we can probably also include that a .380 wOBA against LHBs and .360 against RHBs drops to a .334 and .336 xwOBA respectively. Perhaps the most encouraging vibes come from Buehler’s pitch modeling with PB grades ranging from 46 to 59, resulting in a 3.95 Bot ERA, along with a 93 Stuff+ that works up to a 100 Pitching+.
Lasting 24 batters in Game Three of the NLDS, you might believe it was a quality outing, especially at only 3.2 pitches per batter. He led with the fastball (33x) and it was only -0.1 off his season average velocity. Buehler did get eight whiffs and another 13 called strikes, but was too much over the middle of the plate, resulting in nine hard hit batted balls (95+ mph EV), only four of which were on the ground. Buehler allowed six runs without a strikeout, but did allow a walk and a home run, while throwing a wild pitch.
Opp wRC+: 105 (114 Home)
DEF: -4/-18
B30: 4.37
BSR: -8
Over Luis Severino’s first 21 starts, he generated a 3.91 ERA, but 10.0 K-BB% with estimators above four, averaging 96 mph and leaning on his sinker 26.7% of the time. In his last 10 starts (starting in August through the end of the season), he generated a 20.3 K-BB% with a 3.86 ERA and better estimators, averaging 96.4 mph on his fastball while leaning more on that pitch (37.6%) and his slider/sweeper (27.4%). All three of those pitches exceeded a 55 PitchingBot grade over this 10 start span, while he generated a 113 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+. Severino did allow 10 runs and four home runs over his last 16.1 innings (Phillies 2x, Braves), but with all of his barrels leaving the park, a 35.6 K-BB% and 19.7 K-BB%. On the season, all estimators landed within one-third of a run of his 3.91 ERA, but I believe he ended the season on a better note than perceived. He did have more than a 60 point split by both wOBA and xwOBA, which isn’t really a problem in quantity against the Dodgers, as much as it quality.
He faced 28 Brewers over six innings on 105 pitches in the Wild Card round in Milwaukee. He only struck out three, but saved the bullpen and gave the Mets a chance to win, which they did, by suppressing hard contact. Only three batted balls were hard hit and two of them were on the ground. Severino went fastball heavy in that start with 39.
Severino threw a quality start by definition in Philadelphia with three runs over six innings, but he struck out seven without a walk, while being up 1.1 mph on this fastball, over his season average velocity. Severino generated 14 whiffs on 91 pitches, throwing his fastball, sinker and sweeper in almost equal amounts. There were two home runs, but they were the only two hard hit batted balls that got off the ground against him.
There had been some mention on the NLCS broadcast that the Mets were saving Severino for a home game due to his splits, but that wasn’t the case against the Phillies. Manaea was simply the better pitcher and deserving of starting Game Two in Los Angeles. In fact, Severino’s 15.7 K-BB% and 3.88 xFIP on the road are better than his 11.1% and 4.33 at home, despite a 2.96 ERA at Citi Field versus a 5.00 away. He has a 30 point higher BABIP on the road and 6.8 point higher HR/FB. Apparently this is about power suppression in a pitcher friendly park.
Opp wRC+: 117 (114 Road)
DEF: 7/-6
B30: 4.34
BSR: 2
Once again, I’m aligned with the market here, with the Mets as small favorites. Severino gets the starting pitching nod, the Dodgers get the offensive edge and much better base running, while the Mets are at home with a slightly better defense. Bullpen estimators are both poor this post-season, but a lot of that damage for the Dodgers was done by Knack on Monday. I do have the game total currently around nine, even with the natural park factors, but I envision having to lower than around 10% for weather.
Update:
Weather is as expected (low 50s w/ double digit wind in from around left field pole), driving down my projected total to become aligned with the market.
Not only is Iglesias still in there, but J.D. Martinez starts as well. I know Buehler's record makes it seem that LHBs/RHBs doesn't really matter, but I'd be more comfortable with Winker & McNeil at this point.
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